The Crow's Nest

2012 - B Grade Disaster Movie Yes, but not "The End"

2012-01-16T14:14:00.006-06:00

Those who are looking for 2012 to mark the "End of the World" may be dissappointed. 2013 is likely to show up on schedule. However, for those who like an action packed B movie story line, you may enjoy watching the show. Here's a prelimary description of our analysis of collective mood and perception for 2012:

The roller coaster is making its slow climb to the top as the year begins. Somewhere around January 23rd it stops moving as it reaches the apex. It slowly makes its way over the top, and the world gasps as it looks at how high up it is, and how far down we all must go before the end of the ride. The decent begins as we collectively scream over the next few months, "here we go!"

The character development was brief, but the players are familiar. Of course there is the Israel, Iran, Syria, and rest of the Middle East cast. Around February, Japan returns for more radioactive fun, but with added societal unrest and destabilization. Oh, and don't forget the Wall Street Wonders. How could the show be complete without some type of incredible stock market crash? By April, things should really be moving fast, and all may wonder how anyone could take much more, but that's when of course there is a moment of pause and another smaller climb back up. Europe is seriously in trouble (yes, much more than at the year's beginning) by the time June gets here.

Scattered throughout the picture, in no particular order, there are earthquakes and volcanoes and impactful high energy storms wreaking havoc on daily routines and livlihoods. Resource scarcity reaches crisis levels in some areas, and wars or near wars over them is not out of the question. There are increasing groups of fed up people who have decided they have nothing more to lose, and there's a new appearance this year: unrest in the United States rising to a new level which may even at times rival scenes from faraway lands.

So, find a comfortable chair and some popcorn, if you are so priveledged as to not be a part of the show yourself this year. If you find it being too much, turn off the news and watch a movie, one of the Hollywood type. You won't miss anything, really. There's always 2013.

Panic, Violence, and Justice - Dec '11

2011-12-06T15:24:00.002-06:00

Highlights: Persian Gulf escalation ∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ More protests ∙ Surge in gas prices near Christmas

While shoring up the economy continues to be a concern as the month begins, worries about global instability expand beyond corporate profits and credit availability in December. Pervasive anxiety accompany negative news headlines as lawmakers and leaders squabble and stubbornly oppose cooperation on needed solutions. Mid to late month the focus is on global unrest, aggression, and possible eruptions of violence. During this period, there is an elevated risk of terrorist activity. Although it is unlikely that Israel will bomb Iran this month, the Persian Gulf situation may reach crisis levels, and a surge in the price of crude oil and gasoline may make Christmas traveling especially difficult. The U.S. government could find itself with an even lower public opinion, and very near a lowered credit rating by the end of the month.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are four major periods indicated for December --

December 7 - 13 Paradigm Shift.

December 14 - 22 Global Aggression.
December 23 - 27 Panic and Bad News.
December 28 - 31 Reset.

(further details available in the full version of MoodCompass)

The above is an excerpt from the December 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Persian Gulf Escalation - Dec '11 (video)

2011-12-01T22:47:00.002-06:00

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate a high risk of geopolitical escalation in the Persian Gulf in December 2011.

Persian Gulf Escalation - December 2011

2011-11-19T18:14:00.021-06:00

There has been much discussion of Iran lately, and concerns with a possible U.S. aided Israeli strike are high. While our analysis of global mood and perception for the month of December indeed indicates an escalation of the Persian Gulf situation, it does NOT support the likelihood of an Israeli airstrike, at least in December. With the primary geopolitical risk area indicated being the Persian Gulf (see map above), one possible scenario is a naval buildup or blockade within the Gulf. Note that Israel is not indicated as a likely initiator of hostilities. Also the global distress that would result from an outright attack on Iran is missing from the social map (below). It should be noted that the social mood factor that is labled "economic" in this map, besides indicating a contraction in spending, also corresponds with risk avoidance, anxiety, and wanting to stay close to family and home. From this, it seems very likely that residents of the region surrounding the Persian Gulf will be much less sure of their near-term safety in December.

Actual events:
12/1/11: Israel: No Iran strike 'for the moment'
12/4/11: Iran reports downing U.S. drone
12/5/11: Iran warns of wider response
12/11/11: Iran refuses to return U.S. drone; warns of response to 'hostile' act
12/12/11: Iran hints at closing straits of Hormuz
12/13/11: Iran to hold military drills for closing straits of Hormuz
12/22/11: Iran's war games could force US aggression
12/23/11: Iran to start 10 day war games in int'l waters tomorrow

China unrest (as per social map):
12/14//11: China increasing security around embassy after window shot; Chinese village locked in rebellion

China and the Middle East - Erupting this month?

2011-11-03T19:47:00.023-05:00

Protests and outrage over governmental failings and corporate greed have been on the rise. A surprising factor to add to the mix this month may be the people of China, as analysis of global societal mood factors show "panic" and "outrage" peaking in the People's Republic in November (see map below). This is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Also, North Africa and the Middle East are again showing up as hot beds of protests, unrest, and/or violence, in spite of Ghaddafi's reign being at an end (see map). This indicates a significant increase in social chaos from recent days. This configuration also indicates an increased risk of terrorist activity in the region.

Last, but not least, the developing events in Kosovo bear close watching. Because Kosovo is within the region showing risks of escalation of unrest and violence, an already volatile situation may become critical.

For more information on the MoodCompass Project visit http://MoodCompass.com.

Actual Events:
11/5/11: 67 dead in northeast Nigeria attacks
11/7/11: Official Israeli websites brought down by "malfunction"
11/9/11: Beijing residents cry foul over the air
11/11/11: 13+ killed in Syria protest violence
11/12/11: Pro-Assad crowd attacks Saudi embassy in Syria
11/15/11: Syrian activists rip flag from Jordanian embassy
11/17/11: Sryia close to civil war; Syrian army shells villages after defectors attack
11/18/11: Thousands protest in Egypt against army rule
11/19/11: Egyptian police, protesters clash in Tahrir Square ; Violence erupts in Cairo
11/21/11: New clashes in key Cairo square after bloody weekend
11/24/11: Syrian tanks bombard defectors
11/29/11: Iranian protesters storm British Embassy in Tehran

Teetering on the Edge (Again) - Nov 2011

2011-10-31T13:44:00.003-05:00

Highlights: High risk of U.S. Government budget impasse ∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ Extreme societal tension and polarization ∙ In Nature: Heavy rain and snow near the holidays.

November looks like a busy month for world leaders, as they continue to try to manufacture growth where little can be found. There is a high risk of a U.S. budget impasse that does not get resolved in time. The U.S. government perception cycles show high activity (battles) through November 17 (the deadline), shifting to dialogue and negotiations through the 22nd. The timing would suggest an agreement not reached in time, causing increased societal distress and further distrust of the government as the holidays approach.

      There is a heightened global risk for terrorist activity mid-month, along with increased protests, and possible increase in "random acts" of violence. In the natural world, an increased chance of heavy rain and snow near the holidays should make travel interesting.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are three major periods indicated for November --

November 1 - 8 Into Action.
November 9 - 17   Turbulence.
November 18 -30   It's the Economy, Stupid.
(further details available in the full version of MoodCompass)

Global natural events:

November 4 - 16 Active, In Motion. Nature is in the news. Elevated risk of unusual or increased tectonic activity.

November 16 - 28 Wet, Stormy. Increased risk of heavy rain and snow.

The above is an excerpt from the November 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

1, 2, 3 Go! -- The Trigger Point

2011-10-22T09:44:00.001-05:00

Whatever global leaders achieve this weekend in theirstrategic talks, it is unlikely to be global stability, at least in the nearterm. The October issue of MoodCompass shows a shift in the perceptionof global leaders, from "into action" to "delusional" or "indenial" early next week. Thisindicates that whatever they come up with, whatever actions they might take,are likely to be seen as insufficient or ineffective.

On a societal level, the collective mood is emotional andirrational. People may tend to displayirrational or panic behavior, ignoring facts in their decision-making process. This configuration, in the short term, isoften destabilizing to markets, and frequently accompanies increasingvolatility.

Excerpt from theOctober MoodCompass:

October 19 - 31. Trigger Point. Increasing instability. People may be displaying irrational or panicbehavior. Global leaders are puttinghigh level plans into action.

A Glitch in the Global Matrix

2011-10-15T15:03:00.004-05:00

One can see the European crisis and market turmoil coming to a peak October 3rd and 4th reflected in this excerpt below from the October issue of MoodCompass. October 4th brought in the period in which the social mood reflected a sense of "new life," as forecasted. In the short time horizon of market traders and politicians, this was reflected in global stock market rallies, and political negotiations that showed hope of possibly moving past deadlock.

So what of the current phase entitled "A Glitch?" The G20 is in negotiations this weekend. Are they going to break down or be otherwise ineffective as this "chapter" unfolds? Do global protests begin to appear out of control or become violent in some way? Something the larger society considers "crazy," "surprising," "contrary," and possibly violent is the likely manifestation of the current configuration. If possible, staying close to home and staying informed of the latest events may be a prudent course of action.

From the October MoodCompass:

October 1 - 3 An Ending. Risk aversion is high. Focus on global economy and stability. Geopolitical issues.

October 4 - 12 A New Start. Global leaders focused on calming things down and restabilizing the global system. U.S.. government searches for common ground between various groups in dialogue and negotiations.

October 13 - 18 A Glitch.. Discussions and negotiations may break down. There's an increased risk of protests, terrorist activity, and "random acts' of violence.

Strategizing Stability - October 2011

2011-10-02T21:57:00.002-05:00

October Highlights: Discussion, dialogue, and negotiations∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ Grass roots protests and movements on the rise ∙ In Nature: Increased volcano and earthquake risk.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are four major periods indicated for October--

October 1 - 3 An Ending.
October 4 - 12 A New Start.
October 13 - 18 A Glitch.
October 19 - 31 Trigger Point.

(further details are available in the October issue of MoodCompass)

Global natural events:

October 1-11 Hot, Active. High energy in the system may enhance storms and flooding. Increased risk of volcanic activity.

October 12 - 18 Windy, Stormy.

October 19 - 31 Unstable. Increased risk of moderate earthquakes.

The above is an excerpt from the October 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Quake, Volcano, and Storm Alert - Sept 2011 (video)

2011-08-26T18:22:00.001-05:00

Analysis of human perception of nature projected for September 2011

As the U.S. Withers, and the Dollar Dies - September 2011

2011-08-26T09:45:00.005-05:00

It may be because this is the ten year anniversary of the September 11 attacks, and the media is reinforcing a societal remembrance of a very traumatic moment in U.S. history. It could be due to recent events or because of some new tragedy right around the corner. For whatever reasons, the social mood surrounding the 9/11 anniversary is depressing, the perception of the U.S. government is of an entity that is in serious trouble, and projections for the U.S. Dollar show that it could be in freefall. Often such depressing moods on a societal level find temporary relief in expressions of violence or warfare. With such a mood reflecting a global sentiment, will a token global “bad child” act out to divert our attention in the near future?

Highlights: Societal anger turns to gloom and despair∙ U.S. Dollar in freefall ∙ Global leaders in damage control mode ∙ In Nature: Storms, volcanoes, and earthquakes.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:

There are three major periods indicated for September--

(for more details, see the full version of MoodCompass)

September 1-6 Angry and Divided

September 7-22 [Tales of] the Demise of the U.S. (or U.S. Dollar)

September 23-30 Turning the Page

Global natural events:

September 1 - 14 Sunny, Stormy, and Active. Elevated risk of storms, floods, and volcanic eruptions mixed with what may be relatively benign weather.

September 15 - 26 Nature vs. Civilization. Watch for some disruptions to travel, communications, food production or food distribution. Elevated earthquake risk.

September 27 - 30 Hot and Active. Look for occasional storms and continued heat.

The above is an excerpt from the September 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

E. Asia War Risk - Sept - Oct 2011 (video)

2011-08-23T11:15:00.003-05:00

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate an increased risk of military escalation in Asia.

In Hot Water, Global Weather Forecast, August 2011 (video)

2011-07-29T22:57:00.003-05:00

Children illustrate the global weather themes for the August MoodCompass forecast (analysis of human perception of nature)

All Sink or Swim Together - August 2011

2011-07-29T11:51:00.007-05:00

Wall Street has been hanging in there, while more lose jobs and have trouble making ends meet. Resource shortages are becoming significant for a growing number of people in the world. The U.S. government has been playing an odd mix of hot potato and Russian roulette. While the immediate U.S. debt crisis will be resolved one way or another, the debt of overconsumption continues to run up to frightening levels, causing earth systems to become less able to support our destructive habits. The lack of balance between the “haves” and “have-nots,” and between what we take and give back to our planet, our only home, will not continue to remain unreconciled indefinitely. The teetering of the scales are beginning to become apparent.

Highlights: Denial continues by global leaders and general public ∙ U.S. government crisis, push for leadership ∙ Social agitation and increasing risk of violent outbreaks ∙ In Nature: Strong storms, excessive heat, and fires.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events: There are three major periods indicated for August--
August 2-8 Delusion and Denial
August 9-15 Panic
August 16-31 Transformation
(for more details, see the full version of MoodCompass)

Global natural events:
August 1 – 4 Lacking, sick and hot. Watch for more news stories of drought, famine, and heat.
August 5 – 16 Water and panic. Look for rain, storms, and nature-related panic.
August 17 – 26 Hot, destructive, and stormy. Watch for excessive heat, lightning, nature-related chaos, and fires.
August 27 – 31 Active, hot. Heat continues. Occasional storms. Elevated risk of volcanic eruption.

The above is an excerpt from the August 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Destruction, Denial, and Despair - July 2011

2011-06-30T08:14:00.006-05:00

Highlights: Global situation continues to deteriorate; global leaders in denial ∙ People grow tired of bad news ∙ U.S. government chaos ∙ Earthquake watch, Southern California

Special Alert: Serious Flooding and Cyclones, North America

Natural events:
June 29 – July 6 Risk of high loss natural event; earthquake risk, Southern California.
July 7 – 11 Possible natural event seen as serious, deadly, and/or related to disease.
July 19 – 27 Elevated risk of serious flooding and cyclones, N. America.

The above is an excerpt from the July 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Earthquake and Flood Alert N. America June/July 2011 (video)

2011-06-04T18:08:00.003-05:00

Analysis of human perception of nature projected for June - early July 2011: Southern California earthquake watch and more storms and flooding for North America.

The U.S. Strikes Back - June 2011

2011-05-29T15:52:00.006-05:00

Highlights: Global system under duress ∙ People feeling unsafe and risk averse ∙ U.S. government doles out death and justice ∙ Earthquake watch, Southern California ∙ Storm and flood watch, E. North America

Special Alert: U.S. strikes hard at an enemy. Is it N. Korea?

Natural events: June 9-14 and June 28 – July 3 are the greatest risk periods for natural events with moderate to high losses. Of particular interest is Southern California, for which a moderate earthquake watch is issued. Also, the Eastern half of N. America looks like a candidate for more storms and flooding in June.

The above is an excerpt from the June 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

MoodCompass is now available to the general public. You can view the current issue at http://moodcompass.com/.

The U.S. Strikes Back - June 2011 Alert (video)

2011-05-22T11:37:00.002-05:00

Highlights: Collective mood analysis indicates a dramatic change in global context associated with 1) A group or nation crossing a line, end of May. 2) The U.S. striking back in the month of June. Technical presentation illustrates.

Edge of a Cliff - May/June 2011 (video)

2011-05-09T12:17:00.006-05:00

Candid discussion of the scale of events estimated to occur late May through June.

May 2011 - The Edge of the Cliff

2011-05-03T13:31:00.009-05:00

Highlights: New level of global violence/warfare ∙ Increased patriotism/nationalism and willingness to fight for beliefs ∙ U.S. government decreased capacity to make rational choices ∙ Special Alert: Violence and instability in Korea and/or China

The above is an excerpt from the May 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Starting this month, MoodCompass is available to the general public. You can view the current issue at http://moodcompass.com/.

Terrorism, War & Asia - May 2011 Alert (video)

2011-04-21T07:05:00.003-05:00

Analysis of collective mood factors indicate acceleration of global violence mid to late May. Most likely scenarios are Korean military escalation or E. Asia terrorist attack. Technical presentation illustrates.

Major Earthquake Warning - April 2011 (video)

2011-04-01T00:30:00.005-05:00

Analysis of human perception of nature projected for April - mid-May 2011 indicates heightened tectonic activity globally; a major earthquake warning for Central Asia.

U.S. in Crisis - Extreme Event Alert - March 2011 (video)

2011-03-02T02:06:00.001-06:00

Analysis of mood factors for U.S. society indicate an extreme event, likely mid month.

Significant Weather Events - Mar 2011 Video

2011-03-01T18:32:00.001-06:00

Highlights: Destructive event East Asia. Severe storms N. America. Volcano alert Hawaii. MoodCompass weather forecast for March 2011.

March 2011 - The Bigger They Are...

2011-02-28T14:28:00.003-06:00

The wave of unrest and violence which began in North Africa, continues to sweep around the world and arrives in the Americas in the month of March. With tension between parties and ideologies at extremes in the United States, it should not be surprising if it takes an explosion of violence to restore a semblance of sanity, even if only for a brief moment. This could be the beginning of a long and painful decline; QE2 or 3 or 4 not enough to put Humpty together again. The Empire has no clothes.

Human perception of nature in March is “stormy” in North America; a fitting parallel. Asia, becoming increasingly troubled or ill this month in a socioeconomic sense, shows a parallel in a potentially destructive natural event associated with sickness or disease. As the month comes to a close, and the geopolitical picture becomes more ominous, don’t be surprised if a volcano or two joins in the chorus.

March Highlights:
Civil unrest/violence ∙ U.S. instability ∙ Asia environmental crisis ∙ Stock market sell-off ∙ Storms, volcanoes, and earthquakes

The above is an excerpt from the March 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

February 2011 – Animosity and Rumors of War

2011-01-30T00:52:00.007-06:00

In January, we began to get a glimpse of a shift in global context for 2011. In the U.S., a congresswoman was shot, and in North Africa, uprisings and revolutions threatened global stability. February appears to continue in the same direction, but with added intensity, with mid-month likely to be climactic in some way. After that, the mood shifts from a focus on instability, toward more direct or ominous geopolitical threats as well as an increased focus on terror and terrorism.

Nature is perceived in February to be extremely antagonistic to the modern civilized lifestyle. Watch for blizzards and other natural events to disrupt travel and possibly cause heavy losses of life or property.

February Highlights:
Civil unrest/violence ∙ War Talk ∙ Terrorism Concerns ∙ Stock market sell-off ∙ Disruptive & destructive natural events

The above is an excerpt from the February 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Significant Weather Events - Feb 2011 Videocast

2011-01-25T12:09:00.004-06:00

Highlights: Destructive Event warnings for Hawaii, S. California, and Far East Asia, Heavy snow in N.E. United States, & N. Europe. MoodCompass weather forecast for February 2011.

Violence & War Talk - Special Alert Video Feb 2011

2011-01-23T14:28:00.013-06:00

Global mood trends indicate an increase of violence and war rhetoric in February 2011.

January 2011 – A New Normal for a New Year

2011-01-03T05:22:00.017-06:00

The year begins with hope for the future, and optimism that things are finally getting back on track—economic recovery perhaps is possible. Yet, before the year is into double digit days, a major paradigm shift should be seen to be taking place. The catalyst for this shift may lie in the geopolitical picture. In a global economy, how can any single country or region expect to do well when another is in disarray? Is the U.S. debt going to remain largely irrelevant while European countries and states within the United States struggle with defaults and restructuring? With a significant escalation in the Korea situation likely (see maps below) and Asian economies sure to be directly impacted, how can the West expect to remain immune?

Given the collective mood for the month, January appears to be a month of rebalancing. Exuberance and recklessness should give way to caution and risk aversion. Gestures of cooperation on the part of world leaders and governments should give way to increasing displays of isolationism and protectionism. Attempts at political harmony could turn to outright enmity. Overbought markets should give back some of last year’s gains, and the U.S. Dollar should make quite a comeback against other currencies.

The human perception of the natural world exhibits this same theme of rebalancing in an aversion of excess energy. Some of the ways this could manifest would be below normal temperatures, heavy precipitation, and releasing of tectonic energy in the form of earthquakes.

By the end of January there may be a strong feeling that the year has begun in a wrong direction, and a collective cry may be heard, “Could we just start the New Year over?”

The above is an excerpt from the January 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Stock Market & Gold Crash Alert

2010-12-07T08:05:00.004-06:00

Many people have turned to gold and silver as safe havens in these uncertain times. These metals will fall with the stock market. Technical presentation of mood cycles illustrates.

Confluence of Crises - Dec Videocast

2010-12-02T22:27:00.003-06:00

Highlights: Economic crisis, Social chaos & violence, Middle East / Korea crisis, Market volatility. A global mood "weather forecast" for December 2010.

Turmoil, Panic, and Gridlock – December 2010

2010-12-01T10:38:00.003-06:00

The Grinch may very well steal Christmas this year. December is looking to be a month of crises: economic meltdowns and high market volatility; geopolitical situations at critical levels; widespread social turmoil and civil unrest; and governments whose leadership is sorely needed, found to be paralyzed in gridlock.

The natural world looks to be a big part of the headlines this month as well. Forecasted human perception of the natural world is full of extremes, including possibilities of increased volcanic activity in South America and major storms both in North America and Europe.

What is striking about all of this is that it shows up at all. This is a season where traditionally people want to focus on family and the holidays. However, this year, it appears that something could be unusual or shocking enough to provoke moderate panic responses on a societal level. This year, something is different. We began the year saying that in 2010 “the bill comes due, the party’s over.” The big consumption party, and the year, may be finishing up together.

The above is an excerpt from the December 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Discord, Disasters, and Depression - Nov 2010 Videocast

2010-11-05T17:32:00.002-05:00

Highlights: Global paradigm shift, Social chaos & violence, Middle East crisis, Market volatility, High impact natural event(s). A global mood "weather forecast" for November 2010.

Insecurity, Insolvency and Indifference - November 2010

2010-11-02T19:14:00.001-05:00

Change is in the air, and projected collective mood indicates the beginning of a new paradigm. However, this approaching new reality may not bode well for the optimists. On a societal level, November holds a disheartening mixture of collective apathy, discord, despair, and intolerance. Such wide scale dysphoria is difficult to contain for long, and may result in some individuals or groups acting out in bursts of violence or other anti-social behaviors. Global leaders and governments, needed to keep the ever illusive recovery on track, as well as maintain a stable geopolitical environment, will likely find it difficult to accomplish anything of substance where cooperation is required. Things could even get more interesting should a less stable individual who also happens to be a head of state gets too caught up in the tide of antipathy.

According to projected collective mood and perception, there is high risk for terrorist activity as well as large impact natural disaster(s), especially in the first half of the month. With coffers lean and ammunition for economic remedies running thin, the clock continues to tick on an ever nearing market meltdown. There is continued discussion of a possible currency war, and such a scenario would fit well within the November “look out for number one” attitude. The next episode in the “new normal,” however it plays out, does not look pretty. Rather than a next chapter in global recovery, it may turn out to be the early stages of a systemic breakdown.

The above is an excerpt from the November 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Ready for a Greater Depression?

2010-10-25T19:10:00.007-05:00

It's normal for markets to disconnect from collective mood at major turning points, especially when turning in a negative direction. This is exactly what has been occurring for the past month or so. However, the extremity of the current disconnect is quite unusual, and implies a vulnerability to destabilization in the markets unlike anything we have ever seen. Imagine the crash potential as a loaded spring, waiting for the slightest nudge to set it off. Anything could do it: a terrorist attack, geopolitical tension or escalation, a natural disaster, or even simply that the market is "overbought." Compare the current crash potential (see chart) to the crash potential just before the sharp September/October 2008 sell-off.

The likelihood of an extreme market sell-off, or crash event, before the end of the year continues. While it is conceivable that some artificial mechanism could continue to prop up the stock market, the most likely scenario, the path of least resistance, is for the pressure of this wide gap to be relieved.

Everyone has heard of the 1929 stock market crash. What most people don't realize is that the really big losses came after the initial recession and recovery-- the 1930's were the era of the Great Depression. While Main St. may have little remaining interest in the stock market directly, the growing spectre of a Greater Depression should at least give people pause. What will our culture of individuality and independence do in the face of 20% plus unemployment? Will we find the means to adapt to a period of chronic economic slowdown and decline? There is every indication that this is the direction we are heading. Ready or not...

High Terror Risk Alert - Oct / Nov 2010: Video

2010-10-18T01:35:00.000-05:00

High Terror Risk collective mood configuration appears late October - early November 2010. Technical presentation of mood cycles illustrates.

October 2010 – Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters

2010-10-01T22:27:00.004-05:00

People are sick and tired of bad news and empty promises. There is talk of an economic recovery and a recession being over, but things still look as shaky and uncertain as ever. They don’t trust their governments to fix things, but no one seems to know exactly what to do. As collective mood continues to sink, governments focus on stimulating “the economy” and encouraging consumption. With governments treating symptoms, and not the larger problems much too inconvenient to publicly name and face, their interventions only forestall the inevitable. The rubber band will surely stretch as far as it can possibly go. When it does finally snap, it will not be pretty.

With frustration high, and tempers fragile, watch for increasing frustration to be expressed in rallies and protests. There will likely be heightened interest in the subject of terrorism. The geopolitical scene could be tricky, as global leaders are caught in the same sea of frustration and impatience as everyone else. Key hot spots to watch this month are Iran, Venezuela, N. Korea, and Nigeria. China is more likely than ever to make any attempted diplomatic solutions through the United Nations nearly impossible.

So how might October’s unfriendliness show up in the natural world? With a lot of energy in the system, cyclones are a high risk, even at this late date in the season. Tornadoes and typhoons may not yet be done for the year in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere is not likely to see the cyclones, but they could have their own version of storm to share in the global moment.

The above is an excerpt from the October 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Addendum-- Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters in the News:

10/1/10: The Twister of 2010

10/2/10: Violent protests after Dutch outlaw squatting

10/5/10: Bible college student shot dead in dorm room.

10/6/10: IMF warns against currency wars. 25 NATO Fuel Tankers Torched.

10/7/10: Deadly blast hits famed Sufi shrine in Pakistan.

10/8/10: Man dressed in black with jack-o'-lantern opens fire at elementary school in Carlsbad, CA.

10/9/10: 8 year-old stabbed while playing video games by stranger.

10/13/10: Continuing French Strike, Unions vs. Sarkosy may result in fuel shortages

10/15/10: Greece: Police clash with protesters at the Acropolis.

Woman in anger management class stabs classmate

10/16/10: Thousands protest in both China and Japan over disputed islands.

10/17/10: Off duty police detective killed over parking space dispute.

10/19/10: Gunman, suicide bomber attack Chechnyan parliment

5 shots fired at Pentegon, shattering windows.

10/20/10: France in turmoil as strikes continue

10/21/10: Major N. California mall set ablaze by man w/ possible bomb.

10/29/10: North, South Korea soldiers exchange gunfire at DMZ.

More shots at Marine Museum in evolving sniper case.

Shooting at Walmart by ex-employee.

Tempers, Tantrums & Twisters - Oct 2010 Videocast

2010-09-30T20:28:00.005-05:00

Highlights: Social chaos & violence, Economic impatience, Terrorism Focus, Iran, Venezuela, and N. Korea issues. A global mood "weather forecast" for October 2010.

Stock Market Crash Alert: Fall/Winter 2010 - Videocast

2010-09-19T16:22:00.007-05:00

Initially, markets should drop 20%; a 50% decline by year end is likely. Economic losses lead to further social deterioration. Technical presentation of mood cycles illustrates.

Market Crash Imminent

2010-09-17T16:00:00.004-05:00

The S&P is now 300 points or 27% above where social mood would place it, and in the mean time, mood continues to deteriorate. This will not continue to go unresolved for long. While some of the economic numbers are showing modest improvement, foreclosure rates are increasing, the poverty rate is increasing, more people are permanently leaving the workforce, and there are no signs that this will be changing any time soon. Whether a new series of market crashes starts next week or next month, it is not far away. Such a downturn in the market could escalate the job problem and further add to social mood deterioration. Not a pretty picture.

This chart shows social mood trend modeled from published Moodcompass issues vs. actual S&P prices.

September 2010 - U.S. Chaos and Global Volcanoes

2010-08-30T22:54:00.008-05:00

Helplessness and fear left unchecked will find “resolution” in hate and release in violence. Economic stagnation with no end in sight, media rhetoric that exacerbates fear and feelings of powerlessness, and high uncertainty about what lies ahead, all simmer together under increasing pressure in the social milieu.

In September, the region of the world with the highest likelihood of violent social eruptions is the United States of America. The initial release of steam from a pressure cooker can be quite intense. Initial violations of long standing social prohibitions can likewise be quite dramatic, and could take the form of isolated incidents of violence or property destruction, or on the more extreme end, could be expressed as anti-group or anti-government acts of terror.

Also in September, we can expect escalating geopolitical tension. A crisis involving N. Korea is probable, and a Middle East episode not unlikely. In the natural world, a parallel theme of eruptions and pressure release should not be surprising. Watch for volcanoes and earthquakes to make an appearance in this month’s headlines.

The above is an excerpt from the September 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

U.S Chaos and Global Volcanoes - September 2010 Vidocast

2010-08-27T15:15:00.004-05:00

Highlights: U.S. chaos and violence, N. Korea crisis, high natural disaster risk. A global mood "weather forecast" for September 2010.

Global Destabilization - August 2010 Videocast

2010-08-05T16:55:00.002-05:00

Highlights: Pervasive global destabilization, Widespread social turmoil, Elevated economic risk, Increasing geopolitical uncertainty. A global mood "weather forecast" for August 2010.

Global Destabilization - August 2010

2010-08-02T23:20:00.003-05:00

There is an unusual destabilizing configuration that appeared briefly in April, May and June. This configuration of both entropy factors working together did not appear at all in the month of July. In August, however, it runs solid throughout the entire month. If July was the edge of the cliff, August may be the first few steps off of it.

Socially, global unrest should continue to increase with Asia being of particular concern. Geopolitical tension should be quite high with several hot spots ready to erupt or escalate at the slightest provocation. Again, Asia is a focal point. The fabled economic recovery continues to be extremely fragile. Will it be able to tolerate such an unstable global scenario?

The above is an excerpt from the August 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

Major Event Alert: Aug 2010 Videocast

2010-07-23T19:54:00.008-05:00

By mid-August 2010, major destabilizing events likely: public vulnerability spike, beginning of sharp market drop. Technical presentation of mood cycles illustrates.

The Precipice of Economic Collapse - July 2010

2010-07-03T19:18:00.000-05:00

Independence Day in the United States is usually a call to celebrate unity and to be thankful for freedom from tyranny and oppression. With the collective mood continuing to deteriorate, there is no room for such positive ideation. It is more likely that this 4th of July, the theme of revolution and revolutionary war will be emphasized. Civil unrest and protests in the United States should escalate this month. Outbreaks of violence are increasingly likely. In spite of the constitutional declaration, there is no “WE THE PEOPLE” in America.

Globally, the mood should also reflect anger and fragmentation. Geopolitical tension should be quite high, while cooperation among world leaders difficult to discern. The world economy is on dangerous ground, and increased discussion of an up and coming sequel to the “Great Depression” is likely. Investor panic and high market volatility should be expected. Will the globalization paradigm continue to survive? Or, if the trend continues, will global goods, services, and destinations, at some point, become a nostalgic memory?

The above is an excerpt from the July 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

Civil War Strategies - July Videocast

2010-07-03T18:51:00.004-05:00

Highlights: U.S. divisiveness expanding with violent outbreaks likley; investor panic and more talk of "Great Depression II;" increasing global unrest, violence. A global mood "weather forecast" for July 2010.

July is like June on Steroids

2010-07-02T12:42:00.004-05:00

Look for this month's blog post (and MoodCompass excerpt) this weekend. In the meantime, think of July 2010 like June 2010 on steroids.

Protests, Violence, and U.S. Debt - June 2010

2010-06-03T00:04:00.007-05:00

With a high Manic social mood configuration, global unrest should be extreme this month— violent escalations are likely.

In the economic arena, China and Europe had their turns at crises last month. In June, the economic focus is N. America. Worries about excessive U.S. debt, possible sell-offs in U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Dollars, and discussions of failing U.S. states may arise as the U.S. does its version of last month's European debt crisis.

The situations in the Middle East and Korea are approaching critical levels. Successful resolution and de-escalation are urgent and crucial to global stability.

With the perception of nature reflecting chaos in Eastern N. America, more tornadoes are likely. Nature is perceived as destructive in the Far East. Because of this, a highly destructive event warning has been issued for Eastern China, Korea, and Japan for the month of June.

The above reflects highlights from the June 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

Protests, Violence, and U.S. Debt - June Videocast

2010-06-02T21:10:00.001-05:00

Highlights: Increasing global unrest, violence; U.S. debt worries; Middle East and Korea near critical; Far East high loss natural event. A global mood "weather forecast" for June 2010.

Fear, Hate, and Eruptions - May 2010

2010-05-01T17:48:00.006-05:00

Tempers are high and patience is thin. Fear and uncertainty can only be held so long before they crystallize into hate. With people suspicious of their governments and each other, at some point government officials will begin to fear the people. Civil unrest should continue to increase on a global scale this month. There will be some point, perhaps this month, where governments will begin to take measures to insure against what is considered unacceptable levels of instability.

The month of May is a tipping point. The social mood configuration bears an uncanny resemblance to that seen in March 2009, except this time it represents a major change in trend to the downside. Whether it represents a major downturn for several months or for several years is yet to be seen. However, odds are that it is the latter. With the social mood continuing to sour internally, and the geopolitical situation becoming increasingly unstable, hopes for a sustained economic recovery could begin to look doubtful.

In addition to the high potential for social eruptions, it is likely that the natural world parallels, volcanoes and earthquakes, are in the news again in May. The highest likelihood for tectonic events is in the Americas; but the Iran/Iraq area is also a candidate. A highly destructive event of some type is likely for Far East Asia (i.e. E. China, Japan, and Korea) and/or Papua New Guinea.

As we watch the ramifications of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill unfold, we will be faced with visible evidence of civilization’s destructive impacts on the life potential of the Earth. Is it too far a leap to consider that humanity is not immune to the downturn in Earth’s productivity? Will we continue to look for props, patches and loopholes, or do we have the capacity to pause and consider a course correction while such choices still remain? If humanity and the rest of nature indeed have a shared tipping point, such choices would need to be made rather quickly, if at all.

- - -
The preceding was an excerpt from the May 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Fear, Hate, and Poverty: The New Global Pandemics - May 2010 Videocast

2010-04-30T19:55:00.004-05:00

Highlights: Growing global unrest, economic "recovery" in jeopardy, Middle East and Korea risks increase, more volcanoes and earthquakes. A global mood "weather forecast" for May 2010.

U. S. Distress, Middle East Instability, and Volcanic Eruptions - April 2010

2010-04-01T07:52:00.012-05:00

Class warfare, racial slurs, and political ideologies at impasse; world stock markets climbing high while so many can’t find work or make ends meet. The tension is high, so thick you can almost touch it. Something, it seems, is ready to blow. The internal situations of several nations, including the United States, Iran, and Thailand could get fairly intense this month. A parallel in the natural world, almost a metaphor for the human experience, is tectonic pressure seeking release—and a global interest in volcanoes.

The United States shows a mood configuration for April, which if it were that of an individual, would be someone experiencing high anxiety, stress, and agitation. For U.S. society, look for the conflict of ideologies that has been polarizing the nation to escalate. The degree of tension in the U.S. may be disturbing enough that international investors seek alternatives to the U.S. Dollar and U.S. markets. There may also be a natural world metaphor for the U.S., as instability shows up in a tectonic event, most likely in the Pacific Northwest.

Iran’s social mood, if it were an individual, would be someone in deep emotional turmoil. For the Iranian people, this could indicate a period where loyalties are assessed, and those found to be disloyal to those in power to be harshly punished. The manic configuration in E. Asia indicates a good possibility that the situation in Thailand could degenerate into chaos. The manifestation in China may be more economic—concerns with inflation and economic bubbles.

The primary geopolitical hotspot for April is the Middle East—notably, Iran, Israel, and Syria. N. Korea could be an issue as well. As these scenarios play themselves out over the next few months, the effects on global trade, global markets, and global stability should be monitored closely. The most likely course is one of increasing volatility.

- - -
The preceding was an excerpt from the April 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

U.S. Distress, Middle East Crisis, and Volcanic Eruptions - April 2010 Videocast

2010-03-30T13:08:00.007-05:00

Highlights: U.S. internal conflict intensifies, Middle East escalation, turmoil in Iran; chaos in Bangkok, heightened global interest in volcanos. A global mood "weather forecast" for April 2010.

Global Violence, Destabilization, and Disasters - March 2010

2010-02-28T18:40:00.013-06:00

March is said to come in like a lion, yet along with the nascent Chinese Year, it makes its entrance in 2010 as a tiger-- and a ferocious one at that. The month begins with global tempers high and violence on the rise, as the mood factors indicate a period of global destabilization and violence. It is likely that concerns with civil unrest and even terrorism are at extremes. Worries about geopolitical escalation should be elevated as well.

By the second week of the month, geopolitical escalation could well become a reality. There are indications of concerns during this period with resource availability, and the price of crude oil and other commodities could rise accordingly. Hoarding is a possibility.

As the mid-month point passes, the collective mood indicates a safety-seeking preference; economic losses are likely to accelerate with steep market declines possible. Concurrently, the human perception of the natural world signifies a high risk for event(s) of which losses of life and property are probable.

As the month comes to a close, global leaders are likely to be in panic mode as they attempt to keep up with the extreme pace of unfolding events. The U.S. government also shows indications of being in a crisis mode as it tries to forge a way forward. There should be an attempt to assess losses during this final period and for markets to make their best efforts to stabilize. While valiant attempts may be made throughout the month to catch this tiger by the tail, it’s sure to be a difficult, if not dangerous venture.

- - -
The preceding was an excerpt from the March 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Economic Downturn, Natural Disasters, and Terrorism - March 2010 Videocast

2010-02-21T13:20:00.002-06:00

Highlights: accelerating economic losses, social discontent, extreme interest in terrorism and global violence, and widespread natural "event(s)." A global mood "weather forecast" for March 2010.

A New World Dis-Order - February 2010

2010-01-31T23:24:00.004-06:00

In February, we begin to see a broad unraveling of the threads that hold the modern global system together. The Chinese economic bubble should finally begin to burst. In the West, social discontent runs high. International tension is extreme this month, and there are sides to be chosen. In the Middle East, look for Iran to go out of its way to display its military might to the rest of the world. The United States may be cornered into making a decision in the direction of aggressive or hostile action, as the rest of the world urges restraint. There is also a heightened interest in terror and terrorism.

To top it off, it may even feel like the natural world is against us, and what we need to maintain our way of life. Unseasonal weather may threaten agricultural outputs, or impede the continuance of business as usual. Tectonic events may encumber additional population centers besides the ones already hit last month in Haiti. It could be a difficult month to be a modern, globalized, civilized human being.

“When the next long term peak in optimism arrives, that will be the time to look for things to really begin to get bad!" (March 2009 MoodCompass, pg. 2). That peak occurred in January. This is evidenced by the ending of the stock market rally that began last March and the beginning of the next long decline—not only in the markets, but in economic, social and geopolitical stability. This is the new world dis-order, and should be for some time to come. If one has focused solely on amassing wealth in terms of dollars and property, one may be disappointed when much of their value is lost. Those who have been investing in relationships-- family and trustworthy friendships-- should find their investments substantially increasing in value over time; precious commodities that cannot be purchased at any price.
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The preceding was an excerpt from the February 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

China Bubbles, Western Discord, and the Iran Agenda - February 2010 Videocast

2010-01-22T17:55:00.004-06:00

Highlights for February: China economic bubble bursts, increased civil unrest, Iranian military escalation, heightened interest in terrorism. A global mood "weather forecast" for February 2010.

Global Collapse in Progress - January 2010

2009-12-30T19:56:00.006-06:00

In 2009, world leaders put together a concerted effort to forestall economic catastrophe. They took the problems created by excessive consumption and overspending, and attempted to make them magically disappear through overspending and encouraging even more consumption. As the New Year begins, the bill comes due. The party’s over.

The global context changes drastically along with the turn of the calendar. There are clues to what causality we may assign to this, but it’s always difficult to name a context that has not yet been seen. Right around the New Year weekend, geopolitical issues rise significantly, the U.S. government appears weak or vulnerable, and the global system is perceived as breaking down. As the first week of the year begins, economic concerns rise sharply and U.S. government activity level rises. However, before connecting these dots prematurely, there are more clues to examine.

In the first week of the year and into the second, there is an elevated risk of extreme natural event(s) occurring. There are also global themes of national identity and isolationism. This would be the period with the highest likelihood for the Mayon volcano in the Philippines to erupt, or any of a number of related consequences. It would also be a time that Iran would be most likely to seriously flirt with regime change once again, which in turn could create havoc with the world’s energy supplies.

Overall, there is a global shift in mood from optimism that some sort of economic recovery is on the horizon, to one of extreme seriousness, helplessness, and apathy. Perhaps January is our introduction to the next decade. This next ten years should see an increase in scarcity, hoarding, and even wars over basic resources; and natural disasters on a scale we have never seen. The changes in our world will cause us to examine our values, and our lifestyles will surely change. January 2010 is likely only the beginning of a long and painful collapse of the world as we have known it. Welcome to 2010.
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The preceding was an excerpt from the January 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Global Collapse in Progress - Jan '10 Videocast

2009-12-25T11:00:00.005-06:00

Highlights for January: Global economic implosion, Chaos in Iran, Indian/Pacific Ocean region tectonic event(s). A global mood "weather forecast" for January 2010

Who's Afraid of Inflation?

2009-12-13T11:26:00.011-06:00

The theme for the coming week is "unintended consequences." The developed world has been in the midst of a manic binge of overconsumption for quite some time. Just like with an individual person, prolonged extreme mania is often followed by a severe depression (after the extreme mania of the 1920's, the depression of the 1930's naturally resulted). World governments have done their best to forestall an economic depression by continuing to pump "stimulus money," the economic equivalent of adrenaline, into the global system. To not have done so would have been catastrophic. Yet, is it possible that they just traded in one set of problems for another? How long can one keep going on stimulants without some sort of breakdown? Should we expect anything less drastic from something as complex as the current world order?

The indications for the coming week are for an extreme surge in inflation concerns. While this could be a final surge before deflation sets in for a time, the strength of it could still be quite alarming, especially to those who pay attention to such things on a daily or weekly basis. The likely manifestations to go along with this are a sharp spike back up in gold, silver, and other commodities; a decline in the U.S. Dollar; a dramatic sell-off in U.S. Treasuries; and diminished confidence in the U.S. government, and the global system as a whole.

Dec. 14 - 20: Sharp sell-off in U.S. Dollars and/or U.S. Treasuries. Inflation concerns skyrocket. Global system appears to be breaking down. Diminishing confidence in the U.S government. (MoodCompass, Dec. issue, pg. 2).

Will Increased Violence hurt Copenhagen?

2009-12-06T11:20:00.007-06:00

Dec. 7 - 16: Directed Volatility, Outrage Violence is on the increase, and possible displays of discontent or civil unrest. (MoodCompass, Dec. issue, page 10).

There has already been a lot of skeptical press about the futility of Copenhagen. As desperate as the situation is, as serious as the threats are to the planet, there is little liklihood that any government will be willing to bear the political costs of actually insuring that the kinds of cuts required will actually be made. Climate activists and others who are aware of how serious the situation is, are feeling increasingly desperate.

The Copenhagen climate talks begin on Monday December 7. Social mood projections are for increased violence, protests, and civil unrest beginning on the same day. While outbursts of outrage could show up anywhere on the planet, I have to wonder whether these two factors will intersect in Copenhagen. If they do, will it help draw attention to the climate change problem, or will it only distract from the business at hand? Is there anything that anyone can do that will actually cause needed changes to take place? Important questions that need to be answered.

On the positive side, at least for Copenhagen, our social maps for the month show that increased violence or civil unrest is most likely in Mexico, the U.S., Pakistan and India. The risk is also somewhat elevated in Russia (we have already seen some of that this month). Best wishes for a fruitful and peaceful event to both delegates and protesters in Copenhagen.

December 2009 - Spending Sprees and Hangovers

2009-12-04T22:05:00.001-06:00

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
Since September, the global mood has been in a process of peaking optimism within a larger downturn (that is still only just beginning). It has been difficult for many to truly believe in an economic recovery, but more and more have decided to embrace it whole heartedly. While efforts to keep the global consumption machine moving have been no less than heroic, they cannot much longer forestall the inevitable. Trying to spend one’s way out of a situation that resulted from over consumption and over spending in the first place is like trying to pick oneself up by one’s own boot straps. Eventually, the result is falling on one’s face. The topping process in the markets and the recovery is nearly complete. This month is a glimpse at some of the unintended consequences that have been purchased in an attempt to continue to keep the global wheels turning at an unsustainable pace.

Beginning with the second week of December, geopolitical concerns are on the rise. Key global players such as China and the United States may be less than cooperative with each other; Russia may be at odds with Eastern Europe; and we must not forget the wild cards—Iran and N. Korea which may add renewed trouble to the global balancing act at a moment’s notice. Displays of discontent or unrest are more likely on a global scale, and incidents of violence may be seen to be up as well. In the middle of the month, there are indications that inflation concerns will rise dramatically. This should be accompanied by either a sharp sell-off in U.S. Dollars, U.S. Treasuries, or both. Concurrently, confidence in the U.S. government will diminish, and there may be worries that the global system is breaking down. Immediately surrounding the Christmas holiday there may be some relief. However, as the New Year begins, geopolitical worries and systemic risks again come to the foreground as noteworthy threats to the fragile house of cards that have been so carefully stacked in place.

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http://anewstory.org/moodcompass.htm (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Spending Sprees and Hangovers - December 09 Videocast

2009-12-01T22:56:00.003-06:00

December highlights: Increased global tension, U.S. Dollar or U.S. Treasuries sell-off, increased discontent or unrest, and possible California earthquake. A global mood "weather forecast" for December 2009.

November 2009 - Desperate Measures

2009-10-30T22:20:00.003-05:00

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
There is a sense of desperation to the month of November which is likely to challenge world leaders to find new and creative solutions to long standing problems. There are economic concerns that “stimulus” has not yet been able to make go away, and chronic geopolitical issues that continue to go unresolved. In the first half of the month, the primary focus is economic and currency issues. There may be one last big panic over the fate of the U.S. Dollar, after which it should continue to show new strength. As the seriousness of the economic situation begins to become clear, inflation worries will be replaced with concerns about deflation, and global markets could see a sharp, but likely brief, sell-off. The yet unresolved unemployment situation may require new and innovative responses from federal and state governments.

The focus shifts in the second half to the world arena. A polarization develops between “good guys” and “bad guys” (the identification of the good guys and bad guys would be in the eye of the beholder). There is a societal sense of righteousness and unity against an enemy or cause. While it would make sense that a specific event would cause such a response, there is no direct indication as to whether such an event is likely to occur or what it might be. Because there appears to be some relationship to this polarization with the energy markets, there is a good possibility that it involves Iran and possibly Russia.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Nov09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

On The Brink - November 09 Videocast

2009-10-23T19:24:00.003-05:00

The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for November 2009. US centered economic chaos, Military display(s) of force, Hawaii event, and more swine flu are the highlights.

Is the Dollar Really Dead? Don't Fall For It!

2009-10-18T17:56:00.010-05:00

Many have been discussing the Dollar's demise. There have been panic sell-offs of Dollars in the forex market, and U.S. Treasuries are being abandoned wholesale. Yet, this is the kind of extreme in sentiment that most often occurs at a market top or bottom. It's true that the U.S. government is borrowing unprecendented amounts of money. It's true that some countries including China, the U.S.'s primary creditor, is exploring alternatives in reserve currencies. However, as much as China, Russia, Iran, and other nations might wish there were another place to turn, the global system is intricately complex, and rests on a foundation based in debt and U.S. Dollars. Things can not safely change that fast. Also, as global anxiety climbs, and people are once again forced to liquidate assets that are primarily priced in Dollars, the U.S. currency will rise in value against the "commodity" currencies.

Even if there is still one more brief, but possibly extreme panic, holders of the U.S. Dollar will once again find their currency gaining in favor. Inflation worries will be a spector of the past, and deflation will once again be the primary concern. We've been here before. This is what it looks like at a social mood top, as markets in general begin to break down once again, and as Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar are sought as "safety." The Dollar may indeed collapse at some point, and inflation may very well soar to unbelievable heights as resources become more scarce. However, for now, and perhaps for some time to come, the Dollar may find support as the Great Recession continues to play out, and the spectre of Depression once again begins to lurk in the shadows.

---

Excerpt from the October 2009 MoodCompass:

October 19 – 25: A Solution? U.S. government crisis resolved one way or another. U.S. Dollar declines sharply. Inflation concerns up sharply.

From the Week by Week Highlights of Global Mood, Perception, and Behavior on Page 2 of the October MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).

October 2009 – Chaos, Mayhem, and Armageddon

2009-09-28T21:24:00.007-05:00

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -

October is seasonal for mischief, pranks, and random destructive acts. However, this year, the world may experience a much larger scale version of this phenomenon. Whether over fears of unknown change associated with health care reform, outrage at complacency with Iran, or economic problems yet to be solved, the United States could experience a level of civil unrest that it has not seen for many years. An even more extreme form of civil chaos could appear in Iran this month. There may be other outbreaks of this type of behavior throughout the world. Most especially pay attention to Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Thailand, Western China, and Russia.

Strains on the global economy and infrastructure should continue in October. The budgets of states and local economies may be stretched to dangerous levels. The U.S. government will likely be working overtime keeping things together, and one of those all weekend crisis session is not out of the question.

And let’s not forget Iran. It would not be unlikely during the month for discussion and conjecture to arise regarding the direction of the Iran regime, the U.S. position on sanctions or military action, and potential Israeli actions. Such topics as Armageddon may even become part of ordinary conversation in the most intense periods of suspense.

The month ends with a very violent social mood configuration. It is not clear how this may manifest, but it does indicate that November could be even more interesting than October.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Chaos, Mayhem & Armageddon - Oct 09 Videocast

2009-09-25T22:06:00.005-05:00

The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for October 2009. Continued economic concerns, widespread civil unrest, and extreme Middle East tension are the highlights.

September 09 -- Please Remain Calm

2009-08-29T11:11:00.012-05:00

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
The last few months have seen global society move from the brink of despair to a hopeful optimism that things may actually be starting to get better (even while jobs and homes continue to be lost). Wall Street has given new meaning to irrational exuberance, as bullish sentiment indicators reach extremes that exceed the levels of the market peak of October 2007. There are rumors expressed by some commentators that there never even was a recession to begin with.

In March, we cautioned to look for such an extreme in optimism in the months ahead, as it would be the signal that things would be about to get really bad. We are here now. September is a month of paradox, confusion, turbulence, and cross currents. It is a month where hope continues to push forward, as reality persistently slaps it down. There could be large stock market declines as well as huge market rallies as people struggle to find their bearings. There are indications of high economic concerns on a global scale, yet concurrent concerns about inflation are not out of the question. Another crisis regarding the fate of the U.S. Dollar may reappear, while the Dollar builds a solid foundation from which to rally from in the coming months.

In the geopolitical arena, there is increasing violence likely in Nigeria and more civil unrest likely in Iran. Either of these could cause supply concerns in the energy markets. There is a general deterioration in the desire for cooperation among nations, most notably from Russia and the Middle East arena. Global relationships could also deteriorate with Afghanistan, Pakistan and even India. The United States could begin to show an increasingly unfriendly tone this month as well.

In the natural world, it’s the peak of hurricane season, increasing the likelihood of tropical storms and cyclones. There is also a curious indication of concerns with disease outbreaks in Asia which merits watching. Overall, September should be an interesting, if not painful month, as we all try to orient ourselves to a shifting, changing reality. Global leaders should be working overtime to ensure us that all is well, and above all to “please remain calm.”

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Sep09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Please Remain Calm - Sept 09 Videocast

2009-08-17T04:34:00.008-05:00

The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for September 2009. Global Economic Crisis, Geopolitical Tension Increase, and Disease Concerns in Asia are the highlights.

August 2009 – While We Were Sleeping

2009-07-31T10:33:00.010-05:00

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
We spoke last month of a War Dance – some posturing and chest pounding among friends. This month, the sound of drums pounding in the distance can be heard. They’re getting closer. The situation in Iran has been simmering. N. Korea has not yet been “tamed.” There may be domestic distractions—health care, the economy, and other things to pay attention to. There are summer vacations that need to be taken, and parties to go to. However, like it or not, it will be difficult to ignore the sound of the drums, especially near the end of the month.

There is a recent expansion of our research into cycles of mood and perception to a personification of the Earth or Nature itself and its “moods” created from a collage of how human’s perceive non-human nature. In August, there is heightened concern about issues related to global warming or climate change. There is a heightened risk of a moderate earthquake in the area surrounding the Indian Ocean. For whatever reason, strong concerns with disease issues are indicated in Asia at the end of the month, going into September (see http://anewstory.org/earth.htm for more info).

If all this was not enough, while Wall Street has been busy ignoring the high unemployment rates and the growing financial issues that Main Street is increasingly faced with, while banks have been finding new ways to risk money, and everyone and his brother are declaring the recession over, the ingredients for new crises have been stewing. As September approaches, a large stock market decline becomes increasingly near.

But that’s almost a month away. Go back to sleep. It’s probably just a bad dream anyway.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Aug09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Gaia is Agitated: August '09

2009-07-23T13:46:00.007-05:00

Our newest release is the "Earth's Mood Cycles," and is Gaia agitated in August! I am so excited about this breakthrough research. Let's hope that we get the message this time! It's now available for public perusal at the link above.

July 2009 - A War Dance

2009-07-03T17:34:00.007-05:00

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
While most of our social mood data comes from the United States, the patterns showing up here also manifest in societies throughout the world, and often in a more extreme manner. Last November, exactly where the social configuration indicated “chaos breaks out,” the Mumbai terrorist attacks occurred. Last month, exactly where a “paradigm shift” was indicated, riots and protests in favor of a new leader were seen in Iran.

In the first half of July, is a social configuration known as the “War Dance.” Metaphorically, think of warriors putting on war paint, pounding their chests, and beating on drums. Expect to see a surge in nationalism and the mentality of “good guys” and “bad guys.” The configuration for the US government is indicative of both high activity and “posturing” with the outside world. However, this occurs after the societal “War Dance” indicating that this action is likely responsive. Also, while “forceful,” the U.S. action should be primarily diplomatic (SE over SW).

With all of this, there are no indications of any new major outbreaks of war at this time. However, watch for the “War Dance” posturing and beginnings of a response before the 14th of the month. While at this time, it is not yet possible to pinpoint where the focal point of this “War Dance” will manifest, the most likely candidates are N. Korea and Iran. This “War Dance” configuration reappears at month’s end. Should the government assure that “all is well” at that time, be wary, as this would be coincident with a “denial” configuration.

There are no indications of a likelihood of actual disruptions in the supply of crude oil. However, when people are worried, even needlessly, they can resort to hoarding. Please refer to our Public Panic Crisis Event presentation for more information on this phenomenon (it is available on our website at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt). The most likely period for a manifestation of panic in the markets or otherwise is July 23 – 28. The likely public response to rising oil and gas prices near the 13th is unclear.

- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jul09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

The Next Six Months -- A Volatile World

2009-06-27T11:49:00.010-05:00

I’d like to give you a heads up on the big picture, as A New Story Foundation has just completed a six month global mood and market outlook. Here is a brief summary for July - December 2009.

Look for global tensions to flare this summer and reach a peak in the fall. If the usual players are involved, then look for: 1) The issue regarding the US Dollar and world reserve currency should continue to increase tensions with the US, China, and Russia. 2) Russia is likely to be doing the natural gas hostage play again, increasing tensions with Europe and former Soviet States. 3) Also, watch for a hot spot in the Middle East due to the instability in Iran, and possible nervousness on the part of Israel and/or Iraq. 4) North Korea should continue to be an uncertain annoyance in the background.

The global economic picture should continue to deteriorate, and markets should generally be down to sideways through October. Unemployment should climb well beyond current levels. Look for valiant government efforts to turn things around by the end of the year. Near year's end should be the beginnings of a turnaround in sentiment that should continue into early 2010. Expect a surge of hope (or denial) in November, and an attempt to see “silver linings” within a context of bad data or news in December.

Stay well,
Cari

June 2009 – Considering the Demise of America

2009-05-30T18:52:00.005-05:00

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
The month of June is showing extremely complex social mood patterns, and the issues under consideration this month should be similarly complex. Following what may be some type of extreme event on or before June 3rd, there is a background of general anxiety throughout the month. With both “East” factors high, the global context is of high level meetings, negotiations and diplomacy. The very symbols of the global system, currency and credit, are likely subjects of discussion and reevaluation.

There is a curious configuration appearing in the mood pattern for US society mid month. It signals a sociological event, a paradigm shift related to identity. What does it mean to be an American? The idea of the United States and its place within the world system are considered and evaluated. Questions such as, “Is the United States past its prime? Is it overextended beyond repair?” “Is the US Dollar still a preferred reserve currency?” are all likely topics of discussion. The resolution to these questions will be interesting to watch as it unfolds. It could be one of resignation, or it could lead to a renewed sense of vision for the American people as well as a new urgency to succeed and lead the way to a global recovery.

- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jun09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

May 2009 – Did Somebody Say “All Clear”?

2009-05-02T20:39:00.003-05:00

The Swine Flu may end up not being much more than "the flu," but stay prepared with back up plans for schools, day care, and even groceries "just in case." People can be fickle and hard to predict as to what leads them to decide whether something is worth panicking over or not.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -

Last month there was an indication of an “unexpected ‘extreme event’ on a global scale.” It was somewhat of a puzzle for us, as the effects on the government appeared to be extreme, yet there was no indication of a stock market crash or heightened geopolitical concerns. If it wasn’t the economy, a war, or a terrorist attack, what could possibly put the U.S. government into such a tizzy? As events unfolded during the month, the swine flu scare was the best fit for this “extreme event.” While we had cited the beginning of the event as likely to be the week of the 13th, the crisis point indicated by our U.S. government chart was April 24-27, exactly where the flu made U.S. (and world) headlines.

As of this writing, there is a downplaying of the seriousness of this flu by the World Health Organization. While its trivialization may or may not end up being a correct assessment, it is important to notice that the alert level is still being maintained at 5. While we are not public health or epidemiology experts in any sense of the word, there are some signals in our social mood and perception charts that encourage continued vigilance for the time being. 1) The global context for the week of May 4 is one of denial of the full extent of a very serious situation. 2) There are indications of a situation that is seen as extremely serious by U.S. society mid to late month with concurrent panic on a global scale. 3) While there may be economic ramifications, the situation does not appear to be primarily economic.

Of course, this is a new month, and there could be completely new problems that fulfill these criteria. The concern is that a brush off of the swine flu and later resurgence of panic regarding its spread or seriousness is much too consistent with the three factors listed above to allow complacency about it just yet. Whether it ends up being “just a flu” in reality or not, panic, and its effect on our daily lives, is all about perception.

- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/May09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

April 2009 – Let Me Off this Crazy Ride!

2009-03-30T10:58:00.001-05:00

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -

The stock market apparently made a bottom last month, but it’s not yet time to celebrate. The cycling of moods in April look like a harsh dose of reality clashing with burgeoning optimism. It isn’t pretty. The focus this month is not primarily the stock market. Believe it or not, there are other things happening in the world and in life to pay attention to.

In general, U.S. Society throughout the month is agitated, perhaps even angry. People are tired of hearing about the economic downturn and what needs to be done about it. They are tired of their government fighting about what should and should not be done. While social unrest around the world last month was quite high, it is yet to be seen whether this fuse gets ignited into some massive demonstration or outbreak in this country.

In the marketplace this month, look for a strong resurgence in the energy markets. Expect the price for oil and gasoline to climb throughout much of the month. There is also extreme action indicated in the currency and bond markets. In a global social and economic sense, things are on the unstable side of the scale.

Of particular concern is the week of April 13th. There is the possibility of an unexpected “extreme event” on a global scale. The manifestation in the US government is turmoil and chaos. Whether this occurs in this country, somewhere else, or “everywhere,” the scale is large enough to cause at least two weeks of disruption of the government’s focus. Public opinion of the government during this period should be extremely low as well.

To summarize, I will quote a colleague who is gifted in the use of metaphor: “April this year is like a sick, twisted roller coaster ride at a creepy, run down carnival. You just want to get off the ride and go home.”

- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Apr09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

March 2009 – Disgruntled, Discontented, and Directionless

2009-02-28T21:34:00.012-06:00

Global Risk of Social Unrest: EXTREME!

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
March 2009 – Disgruntled, Discontented, and Directionless

The background theme throughout the month is an aimless, anxious, agitation. People, in general, are worried about the future; increasing numbers are concerned with survival needs in the present. To make matters worse, no one is quite sure how to respond to all that is going on.

Global stock markets are near a low and the negativity in social mood is nearing a peak. At such long term cycle peaks, the risk of civil unrest reaches an extremely high probability of occurring; the risk of misunderstandings between governments also rises.

There are numerous opinions about how governments should be dealing with the economic turmoil. While there is little consensus on exactly what should be done, there is much agreement, globally, that whatever is being done, by whoever is in charge, is the wrong thing, and that whatever they are doing is either not enough or is going to make matters worse. In the US, differences between political parties over the past month have been extreme. This month, divisiveness reaches a whole new level, and it would not be surprising to see some type of a demand for action, an insistence that the debate come to a conclusion so that plans can be crystallized and implemented. “Enough talk already! What are you going to DO about it?”

All of this painful agitation and searching for direction should likewise be a theme in the marketplace throughout the month. This is not the end of the economic downturn, but it is near the end of increased disintegration for now. When the next long term peak in optimism arrives, that will be the time to look for things to really begin to get bad!

- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Mar09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Just a Few More Stock Market Crashes to Go!

2009-02-01T23:12:00.012-06:00

This month there is some good news and some bad news. First, the good news: there is only a month or two left of really bad stock market crashes. Next, the bad news: the same as the good news.

President Obama has been saying it's going to get worse before it gets better. The next two months should look pretty bad for the global economy. More people will lose jobs, more banks will be on the edge of failing, etc. However, just when it looks like there will never be an end to all of the bad news, in just a few months from now, things will start to stabilize. It won't be the end of the economic downturn, that is still a few years away (according to the cycles we follow). However, it will mean a reprieve for a bit, perhaps six months, or even more. An upturn in the collective mood would be rather refreshing. I sure would love a surge of good news for a change.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
February 2009 – Can’t We All Just Get Along?

Last month was rather interesting. There were so many puzzle pieces that looked so bad at a time that seemed like everyone should be celebrating – the drop in optimism and associated stock market downturn, U.S. Treasuries being sold off even though the stock market was declining, and an increase in anti-U.S. sentiment after a new, fairly popular president was supposed to take office. We were right on with the pieces of the puzzle. There was an actual 5% drop in the stock market on Inauguration Day itself. China, Pakistan, and the Arab world as a whole were less than pleased with the United States the very week the new president took office. However, as a whole, things were more or less “normal.” We must admit that we too were caught up in the expectations that a new president would mean that at least the mood should get better for a moment, and were concerned about what seemed to be a discrepancy. The new president is for the most part doing exactly what he said he would do, what the majority of Americans elected him for, yet the U.S. (and global) collective mood continues to sour.

In February, there are more reminders that things continue to be all too normal. Mid-month the stock market begins to crash (again!). The U.S. government is perceived to be disorganized, incompetent, and fragmented. With this configuration, it is likely that internal fighting and self-interest will impede agreements on any proposed solutions to the economic crisis (which should appear to be getting completely out of control). Whether or not they can get it together next month, we’ll have to see. Regardless, don’t look for any improvements in the economic outlook before spring! This next couple of months of stock market losses might be considered a grand finale of the “show” we have been watching since late 2007. During this period there is a heightened risk of social instability throughout the world, meaning a higher than normal likelihood of demonstrations, riots, and geopolitical escalation.

- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Feb09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

January Addendum - We Have a New President!

2009-01-20T15:29:00.007-06:00

Obama is now the 44th president of the U.S. I am very pleased and relieved that it all went so smoothly and beautifully. So, our worries were unfounded! It's interesting that in our work with the MoodCompass we accurately picked up on a large collapse in optimism near the end of the week of the 5th. We also picked up on the change to "panic mode" as Innauguration Day passed. These mood shifts were accompanied by appropriate downturns in the stock market (e.g. today, Innauguration Day, the market was down 5%). As it turns out, the associations with the mood shifts and the upcoming presidential transition were purely circumstantial (thankfully). I will be waiting to see what the forecasted increase in geopolitical interest is all about in the next few days.

The problems that we all have to deal with haven't changed. However, we now have a very gifted leader who will do whatever can and must be done to address the mess that was left for him to clean up. The big question is, will people give whatever is tried a chance to work? Do people, in general, have the patience to wait several years before many of the big problems even begin to get better? I don't envy his position.

January 2009 – A Year Begins; an Era Ends

2008-12-28T23:21:00.010-06:00

*** Potentially disturbing material ***
This month I must begin with a warning that some may find the contents of this post disturbing, especially if you are an Obama fan like me. If you do continue to read, I have suggested a few practical steps to help you prepare yourself for what may possibly be a turbulent moment.
*******************************************

The indications for January are that there is a possibility that something might interfere with Obama taking office as scheduled. There is more information about the reasoning behind this in the MoodCompass excerpt below. While we can all hope that everything goes as planned, and the transition takes place in a smooth fashion, there are some steps you can take to emotionally prepare yourself should a worst case scenario occur.

1) Sit quietly with a paper and pen handy. Close your eyes, and imagine a worst case scenario. Notice your feelings, your thoughts, and your concerns. Remind yourself, as needed, that this is not happening now, and ground yourself. If needed, open your eyes to remind yourself that all is well.

2) Think of those people you would want to connect with should such a thing occur. Who would you want to support you? Who would you expect to need you to support them?

3) Consider who you are today to be wiser and calmer than a you in the middle of a crisis. Let this Wise Self write a note to the you that exists in mid January. Let this Self say to you any words of wisdom that may help you at the time. Write the names of those you would be calling, whether for your own support or for them. Afterwards, ensure the phone numbers for your list is available and add them next to the names.

4) Continuing to dwell on negative possibilities is not helpful to anyone. After completing the exercise, let it all go. Put the paper away in a safe place. Perhaps you will not need it afterall. Continue to live each day to the fullest, and enjoy each moment of your now.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
2008 was a difficult year. Many have been expressing relief at the coming of a new year with new possibilities, and hopefully a new direction. If January is any indication of what the coming year will be like, well, let’s just say this has been the most difficult issue we have ever put together.

Each month we recalibrate the cycles for the collective moods and perspectives that we study and put the charts together for the following month. Following that, the cycles are interpreted in the context of current events and anticipated near future events. As much as possible, all of the resulting social mood and market information is integrated into a likely scenario— a hypothesized “big picture.” This month, there is a known event, the inauguration of President Obama. However, the social mood and market outlook does not match what would be expected at a time of hope and celebration. The most likely scenario, as best as all the dots can be connected at this time, appears to be a worst case scenario.

The week of January 5th appears to be one of incredible optimism in the face of very negative current conditions. This could be a good case of Obama mania at its best. However, near the end of that week, or beginning of the following week this optimism abruptly collapses... Then, as Inauguration Day passes, US Society enters “panic mode” and anti-US sentiment around the world increases. Connecting those dots, what conclusions would you draw?

One way or another January marks the end and beginning of an era. It should mark the end of the Bush presidency and the beginning of a new one. Another possibility is that it does not. This would mark a new era as well. Let us all just hope that we got this one very wrong this time.

- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jan09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

December 2008 – We May Never Pass This Way Again

2008-11-30T08:43:00.003-06:00

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

- - -

On November 19 the global context was forecasted to shift from tension that “resolved into action” and in the US the social mood to a “chaos configuration.” This brought three days of severe stock market declines as uncertainty grew around the fate of the U.S. automakers. Following that there was an incredible, although nonsensical market rally, another expression of Mania. Global society continued to express the elevated volatility with civil unrest in Thailand closing two major airports, and terror attacks in Mumbai, India. In the U.S. the response was less dramatic, but no less fatal, as a Wal-Mart employee was trampled to death by a manic rush of shoppers, and two men shot each other as their wives argued in a Toys R Us store.

Fatigued by the seemingly endless months of negative forecasts, and with a potential view of “light at the end of the tunnel” as November drew to a close, it was mentioned in last month’s issue that December could hold a moment of relative stability. Unfortunately, this was premature. By the middle of the first week of the month, economic concerns should be accelerating once again as that “chaos configuration” makes another sweep. By the end of the second week, global tensions escalate and the U.S. government appears to go from paralysis to panic mode. While things may become a bit quiet (or stagnant) just before Christmas, on Christmas day or immediately thereafter the U.S. mood shifts to “safety seeking,” global markets decline, and there is a strong surge of interest in potential geopolitical threats. Anyone traveling for the holidays should pay close attention to the development of the global situation as well as any alerts issued by Homeland Security.

As the year comes to a close, one might look back at a year of tremendous change to this country and to the world. The levels of consumption that were taken for granted, especially in developed nations, have been sharply curtailed and continue to decline. In 2007, it was a foregone conclusion that another Great Depression couldn’t possibly happen. Today that possibility is a common topic of conversation. Whatever the outcome of the dramatic transformation we are witnessing, we can be sure that at the very least, the human world will never be the same as it was before this year began. As we said in January, this indeed was the “Year That Changes Everything.”

- - -

http://anewstory.org/markets/December_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

November 2008 – Post Election Chaos

2008-11-01T08:28:00.006-05:00

My introductory comments last month were a bit premature. They belong better with this month. I sometimes think about everything so much that I get ahead of myself.

This month could get quite disturbing for those of us living in the United States. The purpose of this month's MoodCompass excerpt could be considered an emotional preparation. In these difficult times I sometimes take comfort in knowing that large changes are coming ahead of time. That way when they do come, I can say, "Oh, it's that" instead of being completely surprised. Watching the patterns of mood cycles as I do, it helps me see order in the universe in spite of appearances to the contrary. While not always pleasant or preferred, things are unfolding "as they should." When things get crazy economically, politcally, or socially, sometimes the best we can do is try to surround ourselves with supportive people and remind ourselves of what is most important. This may be one of those months. Keep a cool head and stay centered. Stay connected with supportive others.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

---
Last month, as was indicated, the fragility of the global economy was of high concern and world leaders actively attended to keeping the system running. While one of our “big picture” indicators showed an extremely low probability of geopolitical escalation (October issue, page 11), there was a strong indication of “external focus” by U.S. society. We did see large anti-U.S. demonstrations in Iraq and attacks by U.S. troops across the border in Syria and Pakistan. However, these did not grab America’s attention. Interestingly, a similar mood configuration for U.S. society appeared near the two political conventions last spring. Apparently, the usual signals for an external or international focus (the “warrior” configuration), also show up when polarized factions “battle” for an election within a country, even when peaceful and democratic.

In November, the focus returns to the United States as the world closely watches our presidential election hoping for a better future for all. Whatever the outcome of the election, there is a most curious shift that occurs in all of our charts immediately afterwards that builds to an extreme the following week. Perhaps there is a “snag” in the election results, or perhaps the election goes fine and there are new economic issues to deal with which return to the foreground once the honeymoon period of having elected a new president is over with. Without a context, such extremes are difficult to interpret.

After the election, the U.S. social mood shifts to what could be either anger or excitement (or both). The following week this turns to high anxiety, and the week of the 17th to an extreme Manic configuration which would indicate chaos and confusion. The U.S. government’s configuration is one with extreme preoccupation with keeping order the entire month beginning immediately after the election and peaking near the 14th. Be watching the news for a build up of tension and anxiety in this country and for more information on the specific context as to how this will be expressed. Pay particular attention near the 19th of the month when the tension resolves itself into the chaos configuration for U.S. society. Unfortunately, this is one of those situations that is so out of the ordinary that it is impossible to be more specific. Staying informed is your best bet.

As for the markets, look for serious declines in the stock market beginning within days after the election. There should be strong gains in crude oil and gasoline prices through the 14th as the Dollar declines sharply. Following that, deflation is back in the foreground with losses across the board in both stocks and commodities. The bright side is that December may bring a moment of relative stability.

- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/November_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

October 2008 – Holding the Global Pieces Together

2008-09-28T11:46:00.008-05:00

I know things have been pretty tense lately in the U.S. and in the world. Jobs are getting harder to come by and money is tighter all around. The world is changing quickly, this country is changing as well. If we can just get through the next several months of rapid and sweeping changes things should pause at least long enough for us to take a breath and look around. It will not be like it "used to be" -- ever. The important thing is to be flexible on an emotional level. As we watch pieces of our way of life that have been important to us fade away, we may grieve, but we must accept it and move on. There is a time for everything, and the time to fight for a better world or for past ideals is not now. Now is the time to keep your head low, go with the flow, and survive the changes in the tide.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

- - - -
Last month we focused on the United States and a possible market crash between September 16th and the 26th. While at the time of this publication, September 27th, the stock market indices have not reflected a crash in “points,” the month saw the demise of several “great American institutions” such as Lehman Brothers, and Washington Mutual Bank. Many individual stocks experienced declines of crash proportions. Retirement portfolios comprised of unlucky investments were destroyed.

In October, the focus quickly shifts away from the United States to the global scene. As economies around the world lick their wounds from last month, the awareness grows as to just how fragile the interconnected, globalized way of life truly is. While a spirit of unity or common goals might go far to solve the issues at hand, that is not what we find this month. Every nation and sub-group is ready to fight for their own interests. And it is in this spirit of self-assertive self interest that world leaders will try to hold the pieces of the fragile global puzzle together. We wish them luck!

In the U.S. an election draws near. Over the past couple of years occasional speculation has been made in various blogs and publications that something would occur near the election to draw attention away from domestic issues. Interestingly, the configuration for U.S. social mood is externally focused throughout the month even though the economy is in serious difficulty and an important election is about to take place. What a curious coincidence!

- - -

http://anewstory.org/markets/October_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net/.

September – The Great Market Crash of 2008

2008-08-22T22:01:00.003-05:00

As I wrote this month's MoodCompass intro, I could only wonder when I might get to write about some good news. It just seems to keep getting worse... Here's the excerpt from the September issue:

- - -

How do we say this… Let’s see… THIS LOOKS REALLY BAD!!! Last month we discussed an event or series of events centered around August 8-11 that could change the geopolitical and/or global economic landscape. The Russia/Georgia conflict certainly qualifies. This month, the globalization experiment continues to be severely challenged as cooperation between nations and even within nations continues to deteriorate. The global economy, already damaged, is likely to be severely crippled by the time this month is over.

However, our primary concern this month is not “the world.” It is one country in particular… the United States of America. For the last few weeks, optimism has been on the rise. There have been calls of bottoms in the stock market, beginning with the zany Jim Cramer of CNBC. Analysts have begun suggesting that it is time to buy stocks again. As of Friday (the 22nd), the stock market is up for the month of August. In a bear market, fading pessimism is not a good sign. It is a clear sign that the next leg down is about to start, and this next one looks particularly severe.

There may be increasing signs that the American consumer is not doing well, or that businesses are in trouble. Anxiety among stock market traders may begin to increase as the stock market does not sell off like “it should” in the face of the seriousness of the global and national indicators. Eventually, the rubber band will snap. This next one should be unlike any stock market decline in recent memory.

It is the aftermath of this, how it changes the face of America that is of primary concern. How will all of our lives be affected as the investments, the life savings of so many are wiped out? How do retired persons or those about to retire who did the “right thing” now face that they have nothing of substance to live on? How do businesses large enough to be publicly owned companies continue to retain workers when their capitalization has been practically erased? What is the effect of such extreme socioeconomic changes just before a presidential election?

This is not good news. There is no apparent silver lining. We have taken on the task of warning of approaching storms. It is time to hunker down. This one will be a doozie.

- - -

http://anewstory.org/moodcompass/Sep08_MoodCompass.pdf
(current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For more information on MoodCompass, check out MoodCompass.com.

The Next Banks to Fail

2008-08-11T07:22:00.004-05:00

I just received this list from Weiss Research and would like to pass it on. This is their list of major banks most likely to fail. They consider a "C" rating to be a "yellow light" and a "D" rating to be an indication that you may seriously want to consider moving your money somewhere else. They also say to be on the alert for the "C" rated banks to be downgraded to "D".

Depression Era Clothing Gives a Heads Up

2008-08-01T20:46:00.005-05:00

There is more and more talk about the Great Depression, and still more denial that its 21st century version is fast approaching. The fashion trends for the fall are expressing what our collective unconscious "knows." The quote below from the New York Post heralds this new trend. Expect fashions to get much more plain and depression-era like in the next few years, as this year's is a "lighter" version of the 1930's fashions.

"The duds say it all-- and it's depressing. Taking a cue from the grim economy, this fall's fashions at Banana Republic, Gap and H&M are featuring a distinctly Depression-era trend of cloche hats, pencil skirts, conductor caps and baggy, vintage-style dresses. One of the most popular styles appears to hark back to the impish newsboy getup of the 1930s baggy trousers, caps, pinstriped vests, oxford lace-up shoes and utilitarian handbags."
-- The New York Post, July 28, 2008

August 2008 – A New Global Reality

2008-07-26T14:21:00.004-05:00

August looks extremely interesting. I found it unusually puzzling to put the MoodCompass together for next month. Something big was clearly showing up, but I couldn't figure out exactly what it could be. It must be something outside of the current context, thus the title - A New Global Reality.

Here's this month's MoodCompass excerpt:

This month, something fundamental about our world changes. It may be the way global society conducts business, or perhaps a major revision to the geopolitical situation. Although the extreme scale is clear from the observed and projected social mood cycles, it is difficult to be more specific. While this focal period is only a couple of weeks away, it occurs in a context that is not yet apparent. It takes place in a different reality than the current one; the only one available to interpret the social mood configurations of the coming month.

Near August 8-11 is a global scale “safety seeking” configuration. It resembles the configuration in U.S. social mood at the time of the buyout of the investment bank Bear Sterns in March and the expressed intended bailout of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (institutions integral to the U.S. mortgage system) in July. However, what we are concerned with in August is more extreme in scale, and global in scope.

At this same time in U.S. society, we find the “survival focused” configuration. A mini version of this occurred near the end of June. This configuration is marked by a heightened aggressiveness in asserting survival interests or instinctual needs, and a lowered importance or general disregard for the factors necessary to maintain the “economic machine” our society depends on. If prolonged or extreme enough, this configuration can be accompanied by outbursts of civil unrest or disobedience. A public panic crisis event such as we have been urging preparation for would likely occur at or near this type of configuration (see the presentation available at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt).

In summary, global society is about to enter a new reality. It should be quite interesting. Grab some popcorn and watch the news. Next month, we should all have a much clearer idea of what this global shakeup was all about.
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http://anewstory.org/markets/August_MoodCompass.pdf
(current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.

July 2008 - A Wild Ride!

2008-06-28T09:52:00.002-05:00

Here's this month's MoodCompass excerpt:

June, we said, was the gateway to at least six months of increasing global chaos and disruption. Life in the U.S. and abroad would be outside of what we have come to know as “normal” in the second half of 2008. Well, we’re here now. After looking closely at the month of July, we are sorry to say that it still looks that way.

In July we should expect a global stock market sell-off, much worse than anything we saw in the month of June. Crude should continue to stay supported, even though global economies are starting to buckle under the weight of the high prices. With all of this turbulence one would expect high volatility in the currency markets. However, oddly enough, all indications are that the U.S. Dollar is unusually stable. It is unclear whether markets are simply non-directional for the entire month or whether some new type of external controls are added to currency markets to stabilize them in very volatile times. Behind all of this global distress appears to be extreme geopolitical tensions. The economic distress this month alone (and it gets worse as the year goes on), could be enough to cause surges in the unemployment lines. We again urge people to prepare for the possibility of a public panic event in the next few months. A presentation can be downloaded at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt.

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For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.

June 2008 - Gateway to Chaos

2008-05-24T19:27:00.007-05:00

Working for A New Story Foundation is interesting and exciting, but sometimes the work we do in looking at social trends and cycles can be a bit scary. What we see in our forecast for June and through the end of this year, I must say, makes me want to gather my family together and hunker down. Unfortunately, as with many Americans, family components are scattered across the country. I would like to share this excerpt from our latest (June) issue of MoodCompass:

"We recently prepared a long range forecast for the second half of this year for internal planning purposes. To sum it up, the entire second half of the year looks increasingly serious, chaotic, violent, and disruptive. The situations that individuals will be facing in this country and on the planet for at least the next six months should be extremely challenging. While we can’t know the specific events that will take place, what we do know is that the situations that present themselves will be perceived over and over again as far outside what “normal” is supposed to be. The second half of 2008 is a different world, in a sense, from the first half.

What that means is that June is the turning point, a one way door into a very different global context than that with which we have become familiar. Through whatever choices, decisions, and actions are made this month, the world will be set on a course that will bring increasing chaos, disruption, and distress for at least the remainder of the year. Although this is not the end of the world, what is likely, in the coming six months, is runaway inflation in certain sectors concurrent with extremely depressed prices in others; outbreaks of civil unrest in some locations due to disagreements with government policies or to general distress and frustration; outbreaks of public panic in some areas due to perceived or actual disruption of fuel or food (for more information on public panic events: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt).

The focal point for June itself is the third week of the month. There is a high likelihood of a geopolitical crisis and excessive losses in the stock market beginning early in the week."

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For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net/.

Change is in the Air – and the Tone is Quite Somber

2008-04-27T09:32:00.005-05:00

One of the topics in the news lately is concern over food shortages. While there is no real shortage, a public panic with hoarding behavior and outbreaks of violence can become serious. For more information on public panic and how to prepare for the possibility of this type of event, please see http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt.

The following excerpt is from the May issue of A New Story's MoodCompass:

Change is in the Air – and the Tone is Quite Somber

As there has been much talk by various analysts in the media about the worst of the credit crisis being over, one might hope that this indicates a transition to a more upbeat mood. Our analysis of the social mood factors for the coming month, however, shows the global sentiment to have an extremely serious tone. Whether the fears that drive the global situation are based on real or imaginary concerns, by the end of the month there is a likely shared conclusion—that something is going seriously wrong.

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net/.

In Like a Lion - March 2008

2008-02-28T14:08:00.002-06:00

If you watch the news or follow the financial markets, March may get a bit scary. If not, you may not notice the fallout from March for a few months. Because the mood configuration for March signals a likely severe stock market decline I strongly encourage you to consider moving funds in IRAs or 401(K)s from growth funds to guaranteed income funds. However, even this is not a sure thing in the current environment. The best investment is cash or U.S. Treasury bonds, regardless of how little interest that pays. The worst investment is almost anything else.

As far as later fallout, the Fed chairman Bernanke testified today that the economy is in serious trouble, that unemployment is likely to rise, and that some banks are likely to fail at some point. Some of this is likely to happen sooner than later. It is not hard to imagine people wondering whether the Great Depression II is upon us by the end of next month. There is little to do financially to prepare at this point. The best thing to do is to invest in mutually supportive relationships. When times are tough, independence is not an asset, it is a liability. Spirituality may be a source of strength for those who have such an understanding. Cherish each happy moment. Our basic values will be challenged in the next few years. We may have to reassess what the most important things in life really are.

The following excerpts are from A New Story's March MoodCompass

Geopolitical Tensions Escalate -- US Stock Market Crashes

The defining shift in mood for February was seen in the extreme change in the way that United States society views the rest of the world. Previously, the world was seen as a relatively stable place to transact business. Although there had been concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy, there was an assumption that growth in the rest of the world would well be able to compensate. The shift in February from high Directing to high Manic saw the view of the non-U.S. world change from a growth focus to one of uncertainty, chaos, and fragmentation. Geopolitical uncertainty propelled crude oil to new records in spite of the undue stress such high prices are placing on already fragile economies. In March, this theme of an unsafe world is continued. In such an uncertain geopolitical context, what else can global investors do, but make a massive move to "take money off the table?" Thus the global sell-off ensues. U.S. markets may lose in excess of 15% at the lowest points this month.

March News Highlights

The following is based on a combination of recent events, global trends, and the March oscillations of social mood

Following on increasing geopolitical crises from last month, tensions in Israel reach a high pitch, with violence in Gaza and a new war looming with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Peace negotiations brokered by the US forestall major Israeli retaliation, but tensions remain high all month, punctuated with increasing outbreaks of violence. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are increasingly vocal throughout the month, taunting and threatening Israel. Israeli forces and embassies remain on high alert. Syria may take up sides this round, and Iran reiterates its firm backing of Syria should Israel attack. Israel's PM Ehud Olmert continues to assert that Iran is conducting secret efforts to develop a nuclear warhead, in increasingly hostile tones.

The situation in the Darfur region of Sudan will have become critical early in March. The United Nations gives repeated warnings of a full-scale war spanning the entire region, encompassing neighboring Somalia, Eritrea, and Chad, perhaps spreading into DRC and/or the northern part of Kenya. Widespread starvation will reach critical levels, as food aid deliveries are intercepted before they can reach distribution points. Fragile Kenyan peace negotiations may break down as a result.

The United States will continue to have difficulty in reviving the waning interest of countries assisting its efforts in Afghanistan, even as Taliban resurgence advances on positions long secured by coalition forces. Continued post-election instability in neighboring Pakistan will further stretch the American forces, and may lead to a crisis near month's end. India may make a statement of caution toward the Musharraf government if the instability is not quelled.
Economic conditions worldwide deteriorate through March, resulting in a rapid decline in US stock prices across all sectors (estimated losses 15-20%). There may be scattered news and rumors of renegotiating global currencies agreements, resulting in several sharp drops in the USD. Continued high prices in crude oil will be driven by Middle East instability, tempered by recession indicators in the US, and coupled with record-high reserve levels. OPEC negotiations may be strained as various elements renew their push for a general acceptance of a "basket of currencies," heavily weighted with Euros and Yuan.

http://anewstory.org/markets/March_MoodCompass.pdf
(subscription required to view; reprinted with permission)

Deepening Despair, Increasing Geopolitical Concerns: U.S. Social Mood for February

2008-01-30T09:33:00.000-06:00

The following is an excerpt from the MoodCompass for February. It is serious, but gives a heads up to what appears to be a very serious month, socioeconomically speaking. February (especially the second half of the month) is a good time to stay close to home and loved ones.

February is a month of exceptional despair (extreme Somber) for U.S. society. The Fed may cut rates, the government may discuss economic incentives or other emergency measures to jump start the economy. However, no matter what is suggested, promised, or actually done, with the high Somber/Directing filter (extreme high West) anything said or done either sounds like it comes from a place of panic, or is responded to with panic. In addition, at any time that some glimmer of hope begins to show, some new bit of bad news that wasn't a part of the previous equation is likely to appear. Back in January, there was great concern expressed about the U.S. economy and the possibility of recession. Those fears have not gone away in February, but a whole new set of worries have arrived.

For the past few months, the rest of the world has been seen as steadily expansive, and as possibly having the ability to compensate for slowing U.S. growth. This view shifts drastically in February. While in January some U.S. analysts may have considered other economies to be "on the right track", and looked admiringly at Asia's growth, for instance, these kinds of commentaries will change to less complementary terms. From the view of U.S. society, the world in February looks suspicious, deceitful, belligerent, and manipulative (high Manic/East). The focus is no longer on how well some other countries are doing, but how dangerous some of them are, and how they cannot be trusted. The high Manic in general signals chaos and unpredictability. We do not know what "they" are going to do next. This sentiment will cause the price of crude oil to climb, even though the global economy is slowing, stock markets are plummeting, and the U.S. Dollar is rising—not a good combination for recovery.

How to Stay Out of Debt

2007-12-08T19:37:00.000-06:00

I'd like to share a video with you this month. It's funny, however its simple but true solution is so obvious it is almost painful. This video is How to Stay Out of Debt brought to you by the classic Saturday Night Live cast of the 1970s. Enjoy!

Clouds of Economic Despair

2007-11-23T09:11:00.000-06:00

In the last few days, two people, on two separate occasions, approached me with their concerns about what is happening in the markets. One of them said that he couldn't say exactly why, but it feels like a "Great Depression" might be imminent. He has never been involved in stocks, nor cares much at all about the world of finance. The other also had no money in the markets herself, but was concerned for a friend who had a significant sum in various investments. What has stood out from these encounters, is the sense of alarm from two people who normally could care less about the stock market or economic indicators.

There has been increasing talk of the possibility of a recession in the financial news. I have seen a few of them come and go in my lifetime, with little personal impact, other than a looming possibility of a job lay off which I was fortunate enough to escape. Yet, during those other recessions I don't recall anyone who I personally knew speaking of "Great Depressions" or describing a sense of large, imminent, engulfing doom. Something is different this time. Whatever is happening, is not like any of the recessions I have lived through. I can't help wondering whether people had such feeling in 1929 just before the big crash.

It is impossible to know whether we will have a one big event market crash such as that fateful October in 1929. It may not really matter. Whether we have a single big crash event, or a consistent and persistent economic contraction, the result would be the same. We may be witnessing the beginnings of a profound transformation of the lifestyles we have become used to.

The only practical advice I had for my friends is this: For the time being, and for at least a couple of years, stay away from long term investments; don't buy a house. Stay away from the stock market and money market funds, keep your debt down, and hold on to cash. And by the way, in case what is going on means that banks will be failing, and that looks likely, make sure your money is in a conservative, solidly rated bank.

This could be a long, rough ride.

Could the Market Crash of 1987 happen Now?

2007-10-03T19:20:00.000-05:00

It seemed best this month to use excerpts of two interesting articles for this month's entry.

Could 1987 happen again?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/could-1987-happen-again/story.aspx?guid=%7B9EB9B81B%2D3592%2D47C7%2DAA51%2DE79F3EC99602%7D

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- This October marks the 20th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash, the biggest one-day post-war percentage drop for U.S. markets.

The crash came against a backdrop of inflation fears, rising oil prices, Middle East tensions and a host of other eerily familiar worry signs in Wall Street's most notorious month, and helped cement October's reputation as the toughest month for the markets, at least psychologically. So, could it happen again?

Could the world's stock markets wake up one morning this month and suddenly find there is no 'bid' for shares and start plummeting? Could someone mess up in the Middle East, where tensions are already high, and do something so completely unexpected that people suddenly just want out?

Or could an overheated market in Asia, Shanghai perhaps, suddenly roll over, sparking a cascading series of falls as complex, computer-driven derivative positions suddenly lose their footing leading to one great global belly flop?

Yes.

Uncertainty and fear are ever present agents in the markets and can overwhelm greed and optimism at any time. Unexpected geopolitical and financial events are an ever present possibility.

The Ides of October
Commentary: How 2007 is different from 1987 and how it's the same
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/how-2007-different-1987-how/story.aspx?guid=%7b087A4B09-AD6A-436B-98EC-FF63FB5EB4BB%7d&print=true&dist=printTop

The more we wade through the minefield that is today's credit crunch the more is written about the last time we saw such problems -- 1987. Parallels are also being drawn in politics, the dollar, war and Wall Street itself so this confluence of coincidences may not be such happenstance at all. Perhaps it is telling us what is going to happen in the very near future.

October has the reputation as being the scariest month of the year and not because it is the home to Halloween. All of the really big market plunges -- 1929, 1987 and even the mini-smashes of 1989, 2000 and 2002 -- all happened in this month so investors are understandably concerned.

Geopolitical Storms! - U.S. Markets and Mood - September 2007

2007-09-02T22:58:00.000-05:00

This is the script for this month's U.S. socioeconomic video forecast:

Greetings, We’ve had fun these past few months making US Markets and Mood forecast videos. This month, however it didn’t seem right to make a funny video. This month, from all appearances, doesn’t look very funny. There is a combination of mood factors for September that deserves something different. So, this month is more of a heart to heart chat. I’ll tell you what it is that we are looking at—you decide for yourself what it means. We’ll start with the lighter side for the month, the stock market and the dollar:

Stock Market: Unlike last month, with the markets ruled by fear and panic at the slightest rumor, most of September should find the markets focused on data and fundamentals. This shift towards rationality should be noticeable by the end of the first week. It is short-lived however, and by the end of the month, expect a full on return to panic.

US Dollar: As for the dollar, look for confusion, as if a shell game was being played. You may pick the first shell, which does look pretty good, that the dollar is going down. You may pick the second shell, which has potential later in the month, which is that the dollar is going up. The third shell may be the best pick, but what is actually under that is a big secret, and we may never get to see what was underneath it. Now, as we continue, I’m going to ask you to piece together a puzzle with me. First let’s look at the mood factors for U.S. Society in general:

U.S. Society: American society is feeling gloomy and a bit haggard after the onslaught of bad economic news last month. One possible response is to go deeper into despair, but that is not what is showing up for this month. The likely way Americans in general will respond to this, is to shift focus to a few designated “bad guys” out in the world. There are many possibilities to choose from—China and Iran are among the recent favorites, but a burst of creativity could even bring in a new villain. This alone, is not a big deal, and nothing new. However, let’s look next at the U.S. government’s mood for this month:

U.S. Government: We all know that both the president and congress have had extremely low approval ratings for some time. Yet, for whatever reason, the indications are that the U.S. Government comes across to the American people in September as both conciliatory and protector, as benevolent and righteous; and if pushed by outside forces, as an Avenger. Another puzzle piece is the energy markets:

Energy Markets: The mood factors for the energy markets indicate extreme volatility and could be full of surprises—the biggest of which should be near the end of the month. There may be times that rationality intervenes and keeps the moves from getting out of hand, but a combination of extreme weather and looming geopolitical tensions may cause panic to win out over reason in the end.

Summary: In summary, the focus seems to shift this month from internal to external factors; and from economic to geopolitical. Whether this means more product recalls with China, more name calling between the U.S. and Iranian presidents, or something more serious we can not know. It seemed to us to be markedly different than what we have been looking at, and it seemed best to frankly share our concerns with you. Take care of you and yours this month. This is Dr. Cari with A New Story—Be well, and be safe.

From the Eye of a Hurricane -- It's Sunny in Here!

2007-08-08T14:14:00.000-05:00

The stock market has gained substantially in the past three days (The Dow has gained 475 points or 3.4%). A member of the CNBC staff remarked today how "sunny" it feels today, and asked, "Wasn't it just a day or two ago that it was all doom and gloom?" My anxiety is growing.

It's not that I have anything invested in the stock market. I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole right now. It's the tension of a rubber band being pulled to a snapping point-- again.

What has not yet been realized, I suppose, is the change of the framework that the market exists in. While the configuration for years has been one to reward greed, the opposite meta-mood is now in place. Instead of a cautious, slow attempt back up, the market is zooming up at breakneck speed after recent large losses. The speculators jumped right in to scoop up the "cheap stocks" and the market is again back in overshoot. While this may have been a smart move many times in the past, at this moment of market transition it may prove far less well-advised.

As mentioned in the forecast for August (http://dr-cari.blogspot.com/2007/09/fear-ahead-us-markets-and-mood-august.html), the mood configuration for this week (and last) is "climax." Although the market movements last week were quite dramatic, it didn't have a "grand finale" type of touch to it. After a climax, there is a lowering of energy. This week so far, the energy has been extremely high. It looks like we are currently building toward a climax-- a peaking of energy. Whether this grand finale occurs tomorrow, Friday, or Monday, I'm not sure, but it is most assuredly right around the corner. It may not mean a serious market crash to new lows, but given the gains of the past few days, it could be a very large one day loss. The less cautious could get serously hurt.

Yes, it is sunny in the eye of a hurricane, even a category 5. That doesn't mean the storm is over. You lay low because the other side is about to hit.

I've got a good seat, some popcorn, and a coke. I can't wait to see how this episode ends.

Fear Ahead! - U.S. Markets and Mood - August 2007

2007-07-28T10:23:00.000-05:00

The mood in general this month is again very gray, almost despondent. What should keep the stock market from completely crashing is the general lack of energy. The biggest danger is the lack of anchor in facts or anything that has to do with "reality." Just like being alone in the deep woods late at night, the slightest creek or crackle can cause incredible panic as the collective imagination runs wild with ferocious beasts, goblins, and monsters. The U.S. government does its best with smooth talking and placating sounds to try to veer away from fears of impending recession. The most likely response from the government to perceived pressure is secrecy, manipulation of social mood, and new constrictive regulations, especially towards the end of the month. From the U.S. perspective, the rest of the world looks pretty sinister, and like a powder keg that could explode into chaos at any moment. The dollar looks unusually strong this month. European currencies and commodities should continue their decline. Crude oil is showing extremely high ambiguity which could manifest as high volatility, but little overall progress in any particular direction.

August 1-10 - ClimaxThe most notable thing early in the month should be highs in overbought markets and lows in the oversold. This is a period of peaks and valleys; markets should be ready to do an about face. Look for "blow-offs" and other tell-tale signs of trend climax.
Week of August 13 - TranquilityThe general mood is indicative of a calming of fears, even relief. The stock market should be making a good attempt at recovery (even if slow). Crude oil should be dropping substantially as the bogeymen that have been propping up the market fail to materialize.

Week of August 20 - EnlightenmentAn epiphany this week should make ambiguities in the markets that have lacked a good sense of direction turn to clarity. It may be another week or two before society in general understands the full implications of this week's events. There is a coming together of mood factors for the U.S. government, the rest of the world, and the factors that influence the price of oil and commodities. However this manifests, it should be interesting.
Week of August 26 - AccelerationThe markets pick up speed (even if down) to end the month off with a loud thud. This may be one of those weeks where the only "market" going up is the U.S. dollar.