Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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The last few months have seen global society move from the brink of despair to a hopeful optimism that things may actually be starting to get better (even while jobs and homes continue to be lost). Wall Street has given new meaning to irrational exuberance, as bullish sentiment indicators reach extremes that exceed the levels of the market peak of October 2007. There are rumors expressed by some commentators that there never even was a recession to begin with.
In March, we cautioned to look for such an extreme in optimism in the months ahead, as it would be the signal that things would be about to get really bad. We are here now. September is a month of paradox, confusion, turbulence, and cross currents. It is a month where hope continues to push forward, as reality persistently slaps it down. There could be large stock market declines as well as huge market rallies as people struggle to find their bearings. There are indications of high economic concerns on a global scale, yet concurrent concerns about inflation are not out of the question. Another crisis regarding the fate of the U.S. Dollar may reappear, while the Dollar builds a solid foundation from which to rally from in the coming months.
In the geopolitical arena, there is increasing violence likely in Nigeria and more civil unrest likely in Iran. Either of these could cause supply concerns in the energy markets. There is a general deterioration in the desire for cooperation among nations, most notably from Russia and the Middle East arena. Global relationships could also deteriorate with Afghanistan, Pakistan and even India. The United States could begin to show an increasingly unfriendly tone this month as well.
In the natural world, it’s the peak of hurricane season, increasing the likelihood of tropical storms and cyclones. There is also a curious indication of concerns with disease outbreaks in Asia which merits watching. Overall, September should be an interesting, if not painful month, as we all try to orient ourselves to a shifting, changing reality. Global leaders should be working overtime to ensure us that all is well, and above all to “please remain calm.”
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http://anewstory.org/markets/Sep09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Saturday, May 30, 2009
June 2009 – Considering the Demise of America
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
The month of June is showing extremely complex social mood patterns, and the issues under consideration this month should be similarly complex. Following what may be some type of extreme event on or before June 3rd, there is a background of general anxiety throughout the month. With both “East” factors high, the global context is of high level meetings, negotiations and diplomacy. The very symbols of the global system, currency and credit, are likely subjects of discussion and reevaluation.
There is a curious configuration appearing in the mood pattern for US society mid month. It signals a sociological event, a paradigm shift related to identity. What does it mean to be an American? The idea of the United States and its place within the world system are considered and evaluated. Questions such as, “Is the United States past its prime? Is it overextended beyond repair?” “Is the US Dollar still a preferred reserve currency?” are all likely topics of discussion. The resolution to these questions will be interesting to watch as it unfolds. It could be one of resignation, or it could lead to a renewed sense of vision for the American people as well as a new urgency to succeed and lead the way to a global recovery.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jun09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
- - -
The month of June is showing extremely complex social mood patterns, and the issues under consideration this month should be similarly complex. Following what may be some type of extreme event on or before June 3rd, there is a background of general anxiety throughout the month. With both “East” factors high, the global context is of high level meetings, negotiations and diplomacy. The very symbols of the global system, currency and credit, are likely subjects of discussion and reevaluation.
There is a curious configuration appearing in the mood pattern for US society mid month. It signals a sociological event, a paradigm shift related to identity. What does it mean to be an American? The idea of the United States and its place within the world system are considered and evaluated. Questions such as, “Is the United States past its prime? Is it overextended beyond repair?” “Is the US Dollar still a preferred reserve currency?” are all likely topics of discussion. The resolution to these questions will be interesting to watch as it unfolds. It could be one of resignation, or it could lead to a renewed sense of vision for the American people as well as a new urgency to succeed and lead the way to a global recovery.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jun09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Change is in the Air – and the Tone is Quite Somber
One of the topics in the news lately is concern over food shortages. While there is no real shortage, a public panic with hoarding behavior and outbreaks of violence can become serious. For more information on public panic and how to prepare for the possibility of this type of event, please see http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt.
The following excerpt is from the May issue of A New Story's MoodCompass:
Change is in the Air – and the Tone is Quite Somber
As there has been much talk by various analysts in the media about the worst of the credit crisis being over, one might hope that this indicates a transition to a more upbeat mood. Our analysis of the social mood factors for the coming month, however, shows the global sentiment to have an extremely serious tone. Whether the fears that drive the global situation are based on real or imaginary concerns, by the end of the month there is a likely shared conclusion—that something is going seriously wrong.
For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net/.
The following excerpt is from the May issue of A New Story's MoodCompass:
Change is in the Air – and the Tone is Quite Somber
As there has been much talk by various analysts in the media about the worst of the credit crisis being over, one might hope that this indicates a transition to a more upbeat mood. Our analysis of the social mood factors for the coming month, however, shows the global sentiment to have an extremely serious tone. Whether the fears that drive the global situation are based on real or imaginary concerns, by the end of the month there is a likely shared conclusion—that something is going seriously wrong.
For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net/.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Dow breaks records-- is this good news?
The collective U.S. mood for this month is melancholy, especially for last week, which is an indicator of likely "bad news." So, what about the stock market rally that broke new records? Isn't that good news?
More and more people in the U.S. are not doing well. Health care is a problem for many. Foreclosures are rapidly increasing. High oil and gas prices will insure a higher price for most other goods and services as well. The dollar is falling, further decreasing our purchasing power. Yet, the stock market keeps rising.
Stock prices rise because investors keep buying stocks, and because there are more buyers than sellers. It is that simple. If the U.S. stock market is a gauge of the collective mood of the U.S., and the collective mood has been turning down for some time already, then what gives?
The stock market's continual rise in spite of a slowing economy, and lowered general mood can be compared to the "J" curve in ecology. When a species is in sync with its food supply and the rest of the ecosystem, its population fluctuates in a sine wave shape, an "S" curve. If it gets a temporary increase in food supply, or its predators die off, for instance, the population can surge way above a balanced state until suddenly it crashes.
Every time I hear the Dow breaking new record highs, I find it highly disturbing, even chilling. The market is in such a state of overshoot, and so out of sync with its "ecosystem", that when it does finally crash it could even make 1929 look like a walk in the park. Each time records for winning streaks are broken (as they have been for 1987, then 1927 and 1929 in the last few months) and the connection is NOT made with what happened the last time such greed and mania went unchecked, I am baffled.
At some point this roller coaster ride is going to be over. And it will feel like it ended because the tracks suddenly weren't there. It won't be pretty.
Stocks surge despite rush of bad news
By Dean CalbreathUNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
July 14, 2007
"Capping a dramatic week on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average came within spitting distance of the 14,000 mark yesterday and the broader Standard & Poor's index surged to its highest trading point in seven years. But for a number of observers, the big question is: Why?The record gains for the Dow and S&P came despite news of slowing retail sales, a burgeoning trade deficit and a declining housing market."
...
"Even as stock prices climbed to record highs, there were signs that some investors were jittery about the health of the economy. International investors continued to drift away from the U.S. dollar, signaling their lack of confidence in the economy. The dollar fell to a record low against the euro and a 26-year low against the British pound."
...
“All of the pundits and so-called 'experts' who did not see this coming still do not appreciate the magnitude of the mortgage disaster and how it will impact the housing market in general, the economy, the stock market, the dollar, interest rates, inflation and the price of gold,” said Peter Schiff, head of Euro Pacific Capital in Newport Beach. “The curtain has yet to close, but if you listen closely, you can hear the fat lady warming up in the wings.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070714-9999-1n14stocks.html
More and more people in the U.S. are not doing well. Health care is a problem for many. Foreclosures are rapidly increasing. High oil and gas prices will insure a higher price for most other goods and services as well. The dollar is falling, further decreasing our purchasing power. Yet, the stock market keeps rising.
Stock prices rise because investors keep buying stocks, and because there are more buyers than sellers. It is that simple. If the U.S. stock market is a gauge of the collective mood of the U.S., and the collective mood has been turning down for some time already, then what gives?
The stock market's continual rise in spite of a slowing economy, and lowered general mood can be compared to the "J" curve in ecology. When a species is in sync with its food supply and the rest of the ecosystem, its population fluctuates in a sine wave shape, an "S" curve. If it gets a temporary increase in food supply, or its predators die off, for instance, the population can surge way above a balanced state until suddenly it crashes.
Every time I hear the Dow breaking new record highs, I find it highly disturbing, even chilling. The market is in such a state of overshoot, and so out of sync with its "ecosystem", that when it does finally crash it could even make 1929 look like a walk in the park. Each time records for winning streaks are broken (as they have been for 1987, then 1927 and 1929 in the last few months) and the connection is NOT made with what happened the last time such greed and mania went unchecked, I am baffled.
At some point this roller coaster ride is going to be over. And it will feel like it ended because the tracks suddenly weren't there. It won't be pretty.
Stocks surge despite rush of bad news
By Dean CalbreathUNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
July 14, 2007
"Capping a dramatic week on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average came within spitting distance of the 14,000 mark yesterday and the broader Standard & Poor's index surged to its highest trading point in seven years. But for a number of observers, the big question is: Why?The record gains for the Dow and S&P came despite news of slowing retail sales, a burgeoning trade deficit and a declining housing market."
...
"Even as stock prices climbed to record highs, there were signs that some investors were jittery about the health of the economy. International investors continued to drift away from the U.S. dollar, signaling their lack of confidence in the economy. The dollar fell to a record low against the euro and a 26-year low against the British pound."
...
“All of the pundits and so-called 'experts' who did not see this coming still do not appreciate the magnitude of the mortgage disaster and how it will impact the housing market in general, the economy, the stock market, the dollar, interest rates, inflation and the price of gold,” said Peter Schiff, head of Euro Pacific Capital in Newport Beach. “The curtain has yet to close, but if you listen closely, you can hear the fat lady warming up in the wings.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070714-9999-1n14stocks.html
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