Buildup to a Crisis

A crisis appears to be just over the horizon.  It looks to involve the United States.  It could be quite serious and involve mass casualties, or it may be a market disruption with injuries of an economic nature.  I’m finding this one difficult to pin down much beyond "there's a thing here."   It may be that there is no single crisis, but that this marks the beginning of a series of crises.  I will explain the possibilities I am looking at for this initial period through December 3.  Perhaps you can figure it out.   

I track and analyze social mood daily, weekly, and even at longer time frames.  Research spanning two decades shows that internet search trend patterns can give a glimpse into near future categories of news events as well as upcoming market changes.  While the stock market may be overdue for a sharp drop, my primary concern at this moment is a crisis event (whether market related or not) that is likely to occur in the next two weeks.

The method I use begins with converting internet search trends to four primary Mood Qualities, Vulnerable, Expansive, Manic, and Controlled.  The first step in analysis is to look at their changing values relative to each other, and identify any recognizable patterns (see chart below).  This graph of squiggly lines implies that the primary outlook during Thanksgiving week is a combination of a pattern I call “Rose Colored Glasses” and another which points to denial or delusion.  Together these paint a picture of a week where people really would like to tune out negative news, and find a bright side to things if at all possible.  The following week, however, appears to be a crisis point.

Looking at the distribution of social mood geographically can give us more information about the type of crisis to watch for.  Below are global and U.S. MoodMaps for the period of November 19-26.  The WorldMood map shows the U.S. in an aggressive mood, an unstable region around Kazakhstan, and an area marked “destructive” in Northern Chile.  I have no further information about the non-U.S. regions, but they warrant keeping an eye on, as they show an elevated risk as trouble spots. 

A look at the U.S. MoodMap for this same period (below) does not give us any clue about the “aggression” seen on the global map (but hold that thought).  The green area over the East Coast, depicts the kind of mood often described as “the calm before the storm,” or sometimes as “cricket sounds.”  This goes well with the mood pattern from the spaghetti line graph we were looking at earlier, and the idea of trying to look past anything negative or “denial.”

Often the pattern earlier identified as “aggressive” on the world map will coincide with military escalation, or at least with geopolitical bluster.  Yet, without a region showing up as a target of such aggression, it’s of little imminent concern.  Turning the page, so to speak, we will look at the following week’s maps (below).

For November 27 – December 3, the U.S. is shown as destructive and/or disruptive.  The only other region identified as significant is North and South Korea and Japan which are shown as defensive and/or risk averse.  The two weeks' world maps together imply one possible scenario as the United States upping the rhetoric or action in the situation with North Korea during this period.  

Yet again, there is another picture coming from the United States MoodMap.  There is a region showing as “disruptive” centered around New York.  This particular configuration can mean several things.  1) Disruptive activity such as protests or even terrorist activity.  2) Being New York, it can indicate market disruption.  3) A disruptive natural event.  4) Last, but not least, being New York, it could also point to a final Manic market rally.

The only way I can see putting both the global and U.S. maps for this week together would be some type of market disruption that affects the U.S. and East Asia in particular.  However, there can be more than one thing happening here.

In summary, the weekly mood pattern tells us to watch for a crisis event on some level as soon as the weekend following Thanksgiving through Monday December 3.  The maps caution of one possible scenario being the United States escalating the North Korea situation, another possibility being a New York disruptive event such as mass protests, or even terrorist activity.  There could be a disruptive market event, or possibly a severe weather event.  A note of caution to those looking to short the stock market: even IF there is a disruptive market event at some point before December 3, that does not mean there won't be a large rally before or after that.

These maps as well as the mood timeline are not crystal balls, and don't tell us what necessarily will happen.  However, more often than not, they give us a glimpse of a future mood category which in turn allows us to make an educated guess at the type of event(s) which might accompany a given societal "response."

U.S. Seeking Shelter June 21-27, 2015 (video)

U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows Americans feeling nervous about events in the world and within the U.S.  A BIG week for U.S. people.



Update 6/20/15: In the areas forecasted for this week (beginning Sunday) as likely areas of Manic mood or disruptive events, on Saturday evening two gunmen in unrelated incidents shot at a group of people. One was in Michigan, the west boundary of the area we mentioned, and the other was in Pennsylvania, the east boundary of the region highlighted for this week.  While we celebrate that the method we are using is apparently working well, it was disturbing and a bit creepy to get something like this "correct" (even though a few hours outside of our time window).

New Wave of U.S. Unrest: June 14-20, 2015 (video)

U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows a new wave of protests and manic mood coming to America in the week ahead.

Update 6/17/15: As noted in the video for increased risk of violence on 16th and 17th, and by location highlighting several East Coast states including S. Carolina , 9 dead in S. Carolina shooting at church Bible study class.

Update: 6/20/15: Yes, there was a new wave of unrest/protests this week. Thousands protest Confederate Flag in South Carolina

U.S. Outlook for June 2015 (from Social Mood data)

June is a turning point for the United States internally and internationally.  The chart below is the overall flow of social mood as projected for June 2015. :

(click to enlarge)

Note to our followers: The addition of geographic analysis to our toolkit allows us greater precision than ever before in next-month future forecasting.  Follow along with the news-flo this month and see how well we did translating social mood data into future headlines.

Week 1 (through June 6): Mild and ongoing economic concerns are present, but a major U.S. economic event is unlikely.  Most of the stimulus for economic issues likely come from outside the U.S. (Greece?).

Week 2 (through June 13): There may be residual economic concerns from any events of the first week of June, but they should dissipate during this period. Any stimulus for new economic concerns should primarily come from outside the U.S.  Watch for a significant development in U.S. – China relations near June 11. 

Week 3 (through June 20): There is a moderate risk of civil unrest or disruptive event(s) during this period (see map below).  The region at highest risk is the Eastern States, but there is an elevated risk throughout the country.  Manic mood may also show up financially as rising indicators of inflation.

(click map to enlarge)

 

Week 4 (through June 27): The outlook of Americans should begin to take a more serious tone this week.  The region North of Texas has the highest projection of this mood factor during this period (see map below, left).  However, this central location may also be indicative of a national shift.  A new wave of economic concerns and domestic issues are starting to take hold in the U.S. There is a moderate risk of civil unrest or disruptive event(s) during this period, possibly expanding or continuing from last week (see map below, right).  The region at highest risk is near Michigan and Ohio, but an elevated risk remains throughout the country.  Manic mood may also show up financially as rising indicators of inflation.

(click maps to enlarge)

Week 5 (through July 4): The outlook of Americans should become much more serious in tone this week, expanding from last week (see map below, left).  The "heartland" of America has the highest projection of this mood factor during this period. Economic concerns and domestic issues are growing and are likely a strong focus of politicians in Washington D.C. and traders on Wall Street as this mood factor is elevated in both D.C. and New York City (see map below, right).  These issues are not necessarily limited to those areas.

(click maps to enlarge)
 

Collective Mood, Global Events, and the Stock Market

I am starting a new blog just for people interested in social mood's tie-in with world events and the stock market.  That way I can discuss those things with people interested in that, and continue to redevelop this blog with a different focus. 

If you are interested, it is at http://moodcompass-world.blogspot.com

Best regards,

Dr. Cari Bourette
Director,
The MoodCompass Project

Energized and Agitated: Global Mood thru June 2.

The social mood through June 2 shows a transition in progress from manic overconfidence in economic recovery to a period of "bad news."  Yet for now, people are ready for action, and for conquering their world. 

There is also a need for release of the tension that has been building up over the past few weeks.  People have chosen sides and are looking for outlets of expression. Some of  the tension may be released by focusing on events "out there," meaning international in origin or even a natural event.

World markets may begin to show increased instability or volatility at this time.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated; natural disaster risk is rising from low levels.   

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, volcanoes, violent storms, and fires.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 5/20/13: Two mile wide tornado kills at least 51 near Oklahoma City.

This is what was published on our webpage on 5/19/13 regarding natural events:

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern would reflect the theme of Nature vs. Civilization and "energy release", They are likely to "target" populated areas and /or cause disruption to power, communications, transportation, or food supply.  Events associated with this pattern are volcanoes, earthquakes, violent storms, and fires.

 

Global Scale Crises thru April 25

Collective mood indicates escalating global instability and economic crises, especially after April 17.  Today's stock market tumble was the sound of distant thunder as a larger storm approaches.

Instability may be exacerbated by ideological conflict.  There is an increased risk for protests, mass violence, and terrorist activity.  There is a higher than usual geopolitical risk for what would be experienced societally as an "unprovoked" attack.  Unusual or surprise events are likely.

Social mood depicts the shape of the crises to be primarily around economic issues and the markets, as well as other events that lead to an increasing sense of vulnerability and risk aversion.  Tenacious optimism and "animal spirits" are likely to fade as dollars and market points disappear.  People should become less certain about the future, less willing to spend, and possibly less willing to venture far from home.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update
4/15/13: The Boston Marathon terrorist attack today is another very loud "rumble of thunder."
4/17/13: Deadly quake hits Iran / Pakistan
4/18/13: Up to 40 dead in Texas fertilizer plant explosion
              More mayhem in Boston: MIT officer shot
4/20/13: Over 150 dead, thousands injured in Sichuan, China quake
               Week in review: Across America, Chaos, Horror, and Hope
4/24/13: Flash Crash: 4 minute stock market plunge wipes out $200 million in value
4/25/13: Over 250 die in Bangladeshi building collapse
 

The Week Ahead: Feb 25, 2013

Global Mood This Week: Watch for increasing instability, volatility, and aggression for the week of February 25.

The Market Week Ahead:  Large moves are possible. Models show a short term trend change-- a choppy upward move in the stock market is most likely. If a market top is not already in place, it should be made this week.

Long term: The social mood trend has turned down. The market should be in the initial stages of a long term downtrend.  Increasing socioeconomic instability should follow.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Market Downturn Confirmed (video)

Social Mood changes have confirmed that a significant downturn has begun. Indications that a global economic collapse that may be in progress are presented.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Peaks, Cliffs, and Civilization - 2013

As many are aware from previous postings here, and from others who look at the big picture in socioeconomics, cycles, ecosystems, civilizations, etc., our current way of life stands at a crossroads.  For years we have watched as peaks in energy production and resources have approached, some passing by, and some peaking around now.  This implies that industrial output, and the availability of many of the goods and services we have been privileged to have enjoyed are in the process of peaking now as well.  The "fiscal cliff" may not be the only cliff that is approaching.

As the social mood and the markets were nearing extremes in pessimism, the March 2009 issue of our previous publication MoodCompass warned:

"Global stock markets are near a low and the negativity in social mood is nearing a peak.  This is not the end of the economic downturn, but it is near the end of increased disintegration for now.  When the next long term peak in optimism arrives, that will be the time to look for things to really begin to get bad!"

Are we passing that peak right now?  No one can tell for sure if a peak has occurred until it is well passed.  There are signs that a peak may be in progress.  One example of bizarrely blind optimism, such as would occur at a peak, was apparent in the responses to today's disappointing GDP.  There were flat out refutations of an economic contraction (in spite of a negative GDP) because the greatest plunge in 40 years of government spending was not "the economy," it was just "the government."

Because one of the initial manifestations of a socioeconomic downturn (after social mood) is the stock market, it would be good to closely monitor both social mood and the market for evidence of a peak.  Whether the current topping process is the peak, or simply the beginning of a short "correction" before more peaking, will likely be known only after some time has passed.

As was mentioned in a recent post on U.S. Market Health, a negative change in trend appears to be in progress.  It was also said that one down week (or even two) doesn't mean that the Great Downturn is here... but it might be.

 

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
 

U.S. Stock Market Health and Social Mood

There has recently been an increase in posts around the internet and in the news that the U.S. stock market may be about to plunge to a mere fraction of its current value.  At the same time, the market continues to go up, defying even the most adamant of bears.

In response to a request by a follower of this blog, we will chime in on what current U.S. social mood trends have to say about the health and well being of the stock market (apologies to those who aren't stock market fans as the language in here is geared towards market people and traders).

1).  Social mood (as measured by our assessment of daily top Google Hot Trends) peaked near November 19, 2012.  It has come down in a choppy fashion and is now at "support."  What it does from here is critical, not only for the well being of the stock market, but to the socioeconomic vitality of the United States (and likely, the world).

2).  Manifested social mood (as measured by our assessment of daily top U.S. news stories) may have peaked on January 14, 2013.  It has yet to make a "lower low."  FYI- Google Hot Trends signals have a better track record of being predictive of the stock market than U.S. news stories.

3).  The weekly projection for next week (from a 7 day EMA Google Hot Trend signal) is showing the first down week in six weeks.  While this week's projection (week of Jan. 21) was showing slightly positive, it was also indicating a trend change was near.  A new downtrend starts with one down week, however, by itself this does not indicate that the much anticipated huge decline has begun.

4)  Last, but not least, for those who follow Ellliot Wave patterns, the market has not yet risen above the 2007 high.  This would indicate that a sharp third wave down is still possible, but would have to begin momentarily (for more information on the Grand Supercycle, Elliot Waves, and what that means for the stock market as well as global society, see http://elliotwave.com).  It is also possible, that the markets will make new record highs, and then begin the first wave of the Grand Supercycle decline.  If so, that would mean less of a decline, at least initially.

For those looking for a big change in the market and the outlook of the world, this would be the year that it happens, and it is a good possibility, all things considered, that we could be days away from the beginning of that change to manifest in the markets.  However, there is no evidence that we can see at this time, that it won't be another few weeks or even months for the Great Downturn to occur.  Since social mood precedes stock market behavior, the next few days and weeks will tell us if we are about to soar to new heights or fall faster and farther than any of us in America could have ever imagined.

Hang on!

For more information on how we assess social mood and its relationship to the stock market see the "Mood and the Market" tab at http://moodcompass.com. 

March 2012 Socioeconomic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Outlook (video)

Analysis of social mood and perception projected for March 2012, and likely associated socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events.

February 2011 – Animosity and Rumors of War

In January, we began to get a glimpse of a shift in global context for 2011. In the U.S., a congresswoman was shot, and in North Africa, uprisings and revolutions threatened global stability. February appears to continue in the same direction, but with added intensity, with mid-month likely to be climactic in some way. After that, the mood shifts from a focus on instability, toward more direct or ominous geopolitical threats as well as an increased focus on terror and terrorism.

Nature is perceived in February to be extremely antagonistic to the modern civilized lifestyle. Watch for blizzards and other natural events to disrupt travel and possibly cause heavy losses of life or property.

February Highlights:
Civil unrest/violence ∙ War Talk ∙ Terrorism Concerns ∙ Stock market sell-off ∙ Disruptive & destructive natural events


The above is an excerpt from the February 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Violence & War Talk - Special Alert Video Feb 2011

Global mood trends indicate an increase of violence and war rhetoric in February 2011.

January 2011 – A New Normal for a New Year

The year begins with hope for the future, and optimism that things are finally getting back on track—economic recovery perhaps is possible. Yet, before the year is into double digit days, a major paradigm shift should be seen to be taking place. The catalyst for this shift may lie in the geopolitical picture. In a global economy, how can any single country or region expect to do well when another is in disarray? Is the U.S. debt going to remain largely irrelevant while European countries and states within the United States struggle with defaults and restructuring? With a significant escalation in the Korea situation likely (see maps below) and Asian economies sure to be directly impacted, how can the West expect to remain immune?

Given the collective mood for the month, January appears to be a month of rebalancing. Exuberance and recklessness should give way to caution and risk aversion. Gestures of cooperation on the part of world leaders and governments should give way to increasing displays of isolationism and protectionism. Attempts at political harmony could turn to outright enmity. Overbought markets should give back some of last year’s gains, and the U.S. Dollar should make quite a comeback against other currencies.

The human perception of the natural world exhibits this same theme of rebalancing in an aversion of excess energy. Some of the ways this could manifest would be below normal temperatures, heavy precipitation, and releasing of tectonic energy in the form of earthquakes.

By the end of January there may be a strong feeling that the year has begun in a wrong direction, and a collective cry may be heard, “Could we just start the New Year over?”

The above is an excerpt from the January 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Confluence of Crises - Dec Videocast

Highlights: Economic crisis, Social chaos & violence, Middle East / Korea crisis, Market volatility. A global mood "weather forecast" for December 2010.

Turmoil, Panic, and Gridlock – December 2010

The Grinch may very well steal Christmas this year. December is looking to be a month of crises: economic meltdowns and high market volatility; geopolitical situations at critical levels; widespread social turmoil and civil unrest; and governments whose leadership is sorely needed, found to be paralyzed in gridlock.

The natural world looks to be a big part of the headlines this month as well. Forecasted human perception of the natural world is full of extremes, including possibilities of increased volcanic activity in South America and major storms both in North America and Europe.

What is striking about all of this is that it shows up at all. This is a season where traditionally people want to focus on family and the holidays. However, this year, it appears that something could be unusual or shocking enough to provoke moderate panic responses on a societal level. This year, something is different. We began the year saying that in 2010 “the bill comes due, the party’s over.” The big consumption party, and the year, may be finishing up together.

The above is an excerpt from the December 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Discord, Disasters, and Depression - Nov 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Global paradigm shift, Social chaos & violence, Middle East crisis, Market volatility, High impact natural event(s). A global mood "weather forecast" for November 2010.

Insecurity, Insolvency and Indifference - November 2010

Change is in the air, and projected collective mood indicates the beginning of a new paradigm. However, this approaching new reality may not bode well for the optimists. On a societal level, November holds a disheartening mixture of collective apathy, discord, despair, and intolerance. Such wide scale dysphoria is difficult to contain for long, and may result in some individuals or groups acting out in bursts of violence or other anti-social behaviors. Global leaders and governments, needed to keep the ever illusive recovery on track, as well as maintain a stable geopolitical environment, will likely find it difficult to accomplish anything of substance where cooperation is required. Things could even get more interesting should a less stable individual who also happens to be a head of state gets too caught up in the tide of antipathy.

According to projected collective mood and perception, there is high risk for terrorist activity as well as large impact natural disaster(s), especially in the first half of the month. With coffers lean and ammunition for economic remedies running thin, the clock continues to tick on an ever nearing market meltdown. There is continued discussion of a possible currency war, and such a scenario would fit well within the November “look out for number one” attitude. The next episode in the “new normal,” however it plays out, does not look pretty. Rather than a next chapter in global recovery, it may turn out to be the early stages of a systemic breakdown.

The above is an excerpt from the November 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Ready for a Greater Depression?

It's normal for markets to disconnect from collective mood at major turning points, especially when turning in a negative direction. This is exactly what has been occurring for the past month or so. However, the extremity of the current disconnect is quite unusual, and implies a vulnerability to destabilization in the markets unlike anything we have ever seen. Imagine the crash potential as a loaded spring, waiting for the slightest nudge to set it off. Anything could do it: a terrorist attack, geopolitical tension or escalation, a natural disaster, or even simply that the market is "overbought." Compare the current crash potential (see chart) to the crash potential just before the sharp September/October 2008 sell-off.


The likelihood of an extreme market sell-off, or crash event, before the end of the year continues. While it is conceivable that some artificial mechanism could continue to prop up the stock market, the most likely scenario, the path of least resistance, is for the pressure of this wide gap to be relieved.

Everyone has heard of the 1929 stock market crash. What most people don't realize is that the really big losses came after the initial recession and recovery-- the 1930's were the era of the Great Depression. While Main St. may have little remaining interest in the stock market directly, the growing spectre of a Greater Depression should at least give people pause. What will our culture of individuality and independence do in the face of 20% plus unemployment? Will we find the means to adapt to a period of chronic economic slowdown and decline? There is every indication that this is the direction we are heading. Ready or not...