Global Scale Crises thru April 25

Collective mood indicates escalating global instability and economic crises, especially after April 17.  Today's stock market tumble was the sound of distant thunder as a larger storm approaches.

Instability may be exacerbated by ideological conflict.  There is an increased risk for protests, mass violence, and terrorist activity.  There is a higher than usual geopolitical risk for what would be experienced societally as an "unprovoked" attack.  Unusual or surprise events are likely.

Social mood depicts the shape of the crises to be primarily around economic issues and the markets, as well as other events that lead to an increasing sense of vulnerability and risk aversion.  Tenacious optimism and "animal spirits" are likely to fade as dollars and market points disappear.  People should become less certain about the future, less willing to spend, and possibly less willing to venture far from home.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update
4/15/13: The Boston Marathon terrorist attack today is another very loud "rumble of thunder."
4/17/13: Deadly quake hits Iran / Pakistan
4/18/13: Up to 40 dead in Texas fertilizer plant explosion
              More mayhem in Boston: MIT officer shot
4/20/13: Over 150 dead, thousands injured in Sichuan, China quake
               Week in review: Across America, Chaos, Horror, and Hope
4/24/13: Flash Crash: 4 minute stock market plunge wipes out $200 million in value
4/25/13: Over 250 die in Bangladeshi building collapse
 

Market Downturn Confirmed (video)

Social Mood changes have confirmed that a significant downturn has begun. Indications that a global economic collapse that may be in progress are presented.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Peaks, Cliffs, and Civilization - 2013

As many are aware from previous postings here, and from others who look at the big picture in socioeconomics, cycles, ecosystems, civilizations, etc., our current way of life stands at a crossroads.  For years we have watched as peaks in energy production and resources have approached, some passing by, and some peaking around now.  This implies that industrial output, and the availability of many of the goods and services we have been privileged to have enjoyed are in the process of peaking now as well.  The "fiscal cliff" may not be the only cliff that is approaching.

As the social mood and the markets were nearing extremes in pessimism, the March 2009 issue of our previous publication MoodCompass warned:

"Global stock markets are near a low and the negativity in social mood is nearing a peak.  This is not the end of the economic downturn, but it is near the end of increased disintegration for now.  When the next long term peak in optimism arrives, that will be the time to look for things to really begin to get bad!"

Are we passing that peak right now?  No one can tell for sure if a peak has occurred until it is well passed.  There are signs that a peak may be in progress.  One example of bizarrely blind optimism, such as would occur at a peak, was apparent in the responses to today's disappointing GDP.  There were flat out refutations of an economic contraction (in spite of a negative GDP) because the greatest plunge in 40 years of government spending was not "the economy," it was just "the government."

Because one of the initial manifestations of a socioeconomic downturn (after social mood) is the stock market, it would be good to closely monitor both social mood and the market for evidence of a peak.  Whether the current topping process is the peak, or simply the beginning of a short "correction" before more peaking, will likely be known only after some time has passed.

As was mentioned in a recent post on U.S. Market Health, a negative change in trend appears to be in progress.  It was also said that one down week (or even two) doesn't mean that the Great Downturn is here... but it might be.

 

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
 

U.S. Stock Market Health and Social Mood

There has recently been an increase in posts around the internet and in the news that the U.S. stock market may be about to plunge to a mere fraction of its current value.  At the same time, the market continues to go up, defying even the most adamant of bears.

In response to a request by a follower of this blog, we will chime in on what current U.S. social mood trends have to say about the health and well being of the stock market (apologies to those who aren't stock market fans as the language in here is geared towards market people and traders).

1).  Social mood (as measured by our assessment of daily top Google Hot Trends) peaked near November 19, 2012.  It has come down in a choppy fashion and is now at "support."  What it does from here is critical, not only for the well being of the stock market, but to the socioeconomic vitality of the United States (and likely, the world).

2).  Manifested social mood (as measured by our assessment of daily top U.S. news stories) may have peaked on January 14, 2013.  It has yet to make a "lower low."  FYI- Google Hot Trends signals have a better track record of being predictive of the stock market than U.S. news stories.

3).  The weekly projection for next week (from a 7 day EMA Google Hot Trend signal) is showing the first down week in six weeks.  While this week's projection (week of Jan. 21) was showing slightly positive, it was also indicating a trend change was near.  A new downtrend starts with one down week, however, by itself this does not indicate that the much anticipated huge decline has begun.

4)  Last, but not least, for those who follow Ellliot Wave patterns, the market has not yet risen above the 2007 high.  This would indicate that a sharp third wave down is still possible, but would have to begin momentarily (for more information on the Grand Supercycle, Elliot Waves, and what that means for the stock market as well as global society, see http://elliotwave.com).  It is also possible, that the markets will make new record highs, and then begin the first wave of the Grand Supercycle decline.  If so, that would mean less of a decline, at least initially.

For those looking for a big change in the market and the outlook of the world, this would be the year that it happens, and it is a good possibility, all things considered, that we could be days away from the beginning of that change to manifest in the markets.  However, there is no evidence that we can see at this time, that it won't be another few weeks or even months for the Great Downturn to occur.  Since social mood precedes stock market behavior, the next few days and weeks will tell us if we are about to soar to new heights or fall faster and farther than any of us in America could have ever imagined.

Hang on!

For more information on how we assess social mood and its relationship to the stock market see the "Mood and the Market" tab at http://moodcompass.com. 

U.S. in Crisis - Extreme Event Alert - March 2011 (video)

Analysis of mood factors for U.S. society indicate an extreme event, likely mid month.

February 2011 – Animosity and Rumors of War

In January, we began to get a glimpse of a shift in global context for 2011. In the U.S., a congresswoman was shot, and in North Africa, uprisings and revolutions threatened global stability. February appears to continue in the same direction, but with added intensity, with mid-month likely to be climactic in some way. After that, the mood shifts from a focus on instability, toward more direct or ominous geopolitical threats as well as an increased focus on terror and terrorism.

Nature is perceived in February to be extremely antagonistic to the modern civilized lifestyle. Watch for blizzards and other natural events to disrupt travel and possibly cause heavy losses of life or property.

February Highlights:
Civil unrest/violence ∙ War Talk ∙ Terrorism Concerns ∙ Stock market sell-off ∙ Disruptive & destructive natural events


The above is an excerpt from the February 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

January 2011 – A New Normal for a New Year

The year begins with hope for the future, and optimism that things are finally getting back on track—economic recovery perhaps is possible. Yet, before the year is into double digit days, a major paradigm shift should be seen to be taking place. The catalyst for this shift may lie in the geopolitical picture. In a global economy, how can any single country or region expect to do well when another is in disarray? Is the U.S. debt going to remain largely irrelevant while European countries and states within the United States struggle with defaults and restructuring? With a significant escalation in the Korea situation likely (see maps below) and Asian economies sure to be directly impacted, how can the West expect to remain immune?

Given the collective mood for the month, January appears to be a month of rebalancing. Exuberance and recklessness should give way to caution and risk aversion. Gestures of cooperation on the part of world leaders and governments should give way to increasing displays of isolationism and protectionism. Attempts at political harmony could turn to outright enmity. Overbought markets should give back some of last year’s gains, and the U.S. Dollar should make quite a comeback against other currencies.

The human perception of the natural world exhibits this same theme of rebalancing in an aversion of excess energy. Some of the ways this could manifest would be below normal temperatures, heavy precipitation, and releasing of tectonic energy in the form of earthquakes.

By the end of January there may be a strong feeling that the year has begun in a wrong direction, and a collective cry may be heard, “Could we just start the New Year over?”

The above is an excerpt from the January 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Confluence of Crises - Dec Videocast

Highlights: Economic crisis, Social chaos & violence, Middle East / Korea crisis, Market volatility. A global mood "weather forecast" for December 2010.

Turmoil, Panic, and Gridlock – December 2010

The Grinch may very well steal Christmas this year. December is looking to be a month of crises: economic meltdowns and high market volatility; geopolitical situations at critical levels; widespread social turmoil and civil unrest; and governments whose leadership is sorely needed, found to be paralyzed in gridlock.

The natural world looks to be a big part of the headlines this month as well. Forecasted human perception of the natural world is full of extremes, including possibilities of increased volcanic activity in South America and major storms both in North America and Europe.

What is striking about all of this is that it shows up at all. This is a season where traditionally people want to focus on family and the holidays. However, this year, it appears that something could be unusual or shocking enough to provoke moderate panic responses on a societal level. This year, something is different. We began the year saying that in 2010 “the bill comes due, the party’s over.” The big consumption party, and the year, may be finishing up together.

The above is an excerpt from the December 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Discord, Disasters, and Depression - Nov 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Global paradigm shift, Social chaos & violence, Middle East crisis, Market volatility, High impact natural event(s). A global mood "weather forecast" for November 2010.

Insecurity, Insolvency and Indifference - November 2010

Change is in the air, and projected collective mood indicates the beginning of a new paradigm. However, this approaching new reality may not bode well for the optimists. On a societal level, November holds a disheartening mixture of collective apathy, discord, despair, and intolerance. Such wide scale dysphoria is difficult to contain for long, and may result in some individuals or groups acting out in bursts of violence or other anti-social behaviors. Global leaders and governments, needed to keep the ever illusive recovery on track, as well as maintain a stable geopolitical environment, will likely find it difficult to accomplish anything of substance where cooperation is required. Things could even get more interesting should a less stable individual who also happens to be a head of state gets too caught up in the tide of antipathy.

According to projected collective mood and perception, there is high risk for terrorist activity as well as large impact natural disaster(s), especially in the first half of the month. With coffers lean and ammunition for economic remedies running thin, the clock continues to tick on an ever nearing market meltdown. There is continued discussion of a possible currency war, and such a scenario would fit well within the November “look out for number one” attitude. The next episode in the “new normal,” however it plays out, does not look pretty. Rather than a next chapter in global recovery, it may turn out to be the early stages of a systemic breakdown.

The above is an excerpt from the November 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Ready for a Greater Depression?

It's normal for markets to disconnect from collective mood at major turning points, especially when turning in a negative direction. This is exactly what has been occurring for the past month or so. However, the extremity of the current disconnect is quite unusual, and implies a vulnerability to destabilization in the markets unlike anything we have ever seen. Imagine the crash potential as a loaded spring, waiting for the slightest nudge to set it off. Anything could do it: a terrorist attack, geopolitical tension or escalation, a natural disaster, or even simply that the market is "overbought." Compare the current crash potential (see chart) to the crash potential just before the sharp September/October 2008 sell-off.


The likelihood of an extreme market sell-off, or crash event, before the end of the year continues. While it is conceivable that some artificial mechanism could continue to prop up the stock market, the most likely scenario, the path of least resistance, is for the pressure of this wide gap to be relieved.

Everyone has heard of the 1929 stock market crash. What most people don't realize is that the really big losses came after the initial recession and recovery-- the 1930's were the era of the Great Depression. While Main St. may have little remaining interest in the stock market directly, the growing spectre of a Greater Depression should at least give people pause. What will our culture of individuality and independence do in the face of 20% plus unemployment? Will we find the means to adapt to a period of chronic economic slowdown and decline? There is every indication that this is the direction we are heading. Ready or not...

October 2010 – Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters

People are sick and tired of bad news and empty promises. There is talk of an economic recovery and a recession being over, but things still look as shaky and uncertain as ever. They don’t trust their governments to fix things, but no one seems to know exactly what to do. As collective mood continues to sink, governments focus on stimulating “the economy” and encouraging consumption. With governments treating symptoms, and not the larger problems much too inconvenient to publicly name and face, their interventions only forestall the inevitable. The rubber band will surely stretch as far as it can possibly go. When it does finally snap, it will not be pretty.

With frustration high, and tempers fragile, watch for increasing frustration to be expressed in rallies and protests. There will likely be heightened interest in the subject of terrorism. The geopolitical scene could be tricky, as global leaders are caught in the same sea of frustration and impatience as everyone else. Key hot spots to watch this month are Iran, Venezuela, N. Korea, and Nigeria. China is more likely than ever to make any attempted diplomatic solutions through the United Nations nearly impossible.

So how might October’s unfriendliness show up in the natural world? With a lot of energy in the system, cyclones are a high risk, even at this late date in the season. Tornadoes and typhoons may not yet be done for the year in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere is not likely to see the cyclones, but they could have their own version of storm to share in the global moment.

The above is an excerpt from the October 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

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Addendum-- Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters in the News:

10/1/10: The Twister of 2010

10/2/10: Violent protests after Dutch outlaw squatting

10/5/10: Bible college student shot dead in dorm room.

10/6/10: IMF warns against currency wars. 25 NATO Fuel Tankers Torched.

10/7/10: Deadly blast hits famed Sufi shrine in Pakistan.

10/8/10: Man dressed in black with jack-o'-lantern opens fire at elementary school in Carlsbad, CA.

10/9/10: 8 year-old stabbed while playing video games by stranger.

10/13/10: Continuing French Strike, Unions vs. Sarkosy may result in fuel shortages

10/15/10: Greece: Police clash with protesters at the Acropolis.

Woman in anger management class stabs classmate

10/16/10: Thousands protest in both China and Japan over disputed islands.

10/17/10: Off duty police detective killed over parking space dispute.

10/19/10: Gunman, suicide bomber attack Chechnyan parliment

5 shots fired at Pentegon, shattering windows.

10/20/10: France in turmoil as strikes continue

10/21/10: Major N. California mall set ablaze by man w/ possible bomb.

10/29/10: North, South Korea soldiers exchange gunfire at DMZ.

More shots at Marine Museum in evolving sniper case.

Shooting at Walmart by ex-employee.

Stock Market Crash Alert: Fall/Winter 2010 - Videocast

Initially, markets should drop 20%; a 50% decline by year end is likely. Economic losses lead to further social deterioration. Technical presentation of mood cycles illustrates.

Market Crash Imminent

The S&P is now 300 points or 27% above where social mood would place it, and in the mean time, mood continues to deteriorate. This will not continue to go unresolved for long. While some of the economic numbers are showing modest improvement, foreclosure rates are increasing, the poverty rate is increasing, more people are permanently leaving the workforce, and there are no signs that this will be changing any time soon. Whether a new series of market crashes starts next week or next month, it is not far away. Such a downturn in the market could escalate the job problem and further add to social mood deterioration. Not a pretty picture.


This chart shows social mood trend modeled from published Moodcompass issues vs. actual S&P prices.

U.S Chaos and Global Volcanoes - September 2010 Vidocast

Highlights: U.S. chaos and violence, N. Korea crisis, high natural disaster risk. A global mood "weather forecast" for September 2010.

Major Event Alert: Aug 2010 Videocast

By mid-August 2010, major destabilizing events likely: public vulnerability spike, beginning of sharp market drop. Technical presentation of mood cycles illustrates.

Civil War Strategies - July Videocast

Highlights: U.S. divisiveness expanding with violent outbreaks likley; investor panic and more talk of "Great Depression II;" increasing global unrest, violence. A global mood "weather forecast" for July 2010.

July is like June on Steroids

Look for this month's blog post (and MoodCompass excerpt) this weekend. In the meantime, think of July 2010 like June 2010 on steroids.

China Bubbles, Western Discord, and the Iran Agenda - February 2010 Videocast

Highlights for February: China economic bubble bursts, increased civil unrest, Iranian military escalation, heightened interest in terrorism. A global mood "weather forecast" for February 2010.