U.S. Disaster Could be Imminent, August 9, 2013

We have continued to track social mood in the background these past few months, and have had nothing much to say about disasters for some time.  However, we have to mention this spike in disaster risk that has been forming over the last few days, and has just turned critical. 

 

According to U.S. social mood factors, the most likely type of disaster is MoodCompass type S SE.  For human caused disasters, this corresponds with terrorist attacks, violent protests, riots, and other anti-establishment violence.  We are all already aware of a high alert in many of our embassies overseas.  For natural disasters, the most likely type would be fires or earthquakes. 

 

According to NOAA, there is no extremely bad weather in the forecast.  Yet, globally, there is an extreme risk for a natural disaster on the scale of last year's Superstorm Sandy (worse than that if it happens outside the U.S.) on August 9 (which may also continue over the weekend).  The chart that shows the spike in natural disaster risk is below.

 

Update 8/10/13: The spike was a one day window, apparently we got through OK.  However, this indicates that we may be in for a time of increased global crises and both human and natural disasters.  Will keep you posted.

 

In the Global Disaster Zone

The last time collective mood was in the Global Disaster Zone, there were the violent storms in the U.S. called Walda followed by the Boston Marathon event, the West Texas fertilizer plant explosion, and then devastating earthquakes in Iran and China.  Before that was a superstorm called Sandy.  What will happen this time?



Collective mood cycles from extreme disconnection from the events happening in the world around us (the news) to a reconciliation where we "wake up" to events that grab our attention or impact us at a deep emotional level.  Like a rubber band being stretched and released, the farther we go during the disconnection phase, the more impactful the reconciliation tends to be.

At the place we are in for about the next ten days, global disasters are more likely than not.  And because the source of this data is U.S. mood, it indicates when events especially impactful to people in the United States should occur.

The themes of events likely to occur at the hands of human beings are organized or directed violence and the experience of victimization or vulnerability.  This could also show up as social instability (e.g. angry protests) or market volatility (violent market moves).  Events likely to occur in Nature should reflect themes of fire and/or flood (e.g. volcanoes, violent storms, and possibly earthquakes).  There is also a background natural theme of epidemic, health, and mortality.

There are more details on the likely disasters in the previous two posts, so let's not belabor that here.  When disasters affect us personally they are tragic, but the point of this is not that we are all doomed.  The point is how amazing it is that our world is connected to us and we are to it.  Disasters are a built in way to get our attention and remind us that we have become disconnected again.  When the rubber band gets pulled to these extremes and released, we all get relatively more connected for a moment.  It would be a really cool thing if there was a time in our not too distant future that we could remind ourselves somehow before the disconnection was so great as to put these things in motion.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .
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Update:
6/7/13: Santa Monica College Shooting leaves seven dead
 

Energized and Agitated: Global Mood thru June 2.

The social mood through June 2 shows a transition in progress from manic overconfidence in economic recovery to a period of "bad news."  Yet for now, people are ready for action, and for conquering their world. 

There is also a need for release of the tension that has been building up over the past few weeks.  People have chosen sides and are looking for outlets of expression. Some of  the tension may be released by focusing on events "out there," meaning international in origin or even a natural event.

World markets may begin to show increased instability or volatility at this time.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated; natural disaster risk is rising from low levels.   

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, volcanoes, violent storms, and fires.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 5/20/13: Two mile wide tornado kills at least 51 near Oklahoma City.

This is what was published on our webpage on 5/19/13 regarding natural events:

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern would reflect the theme of Nature vs. Civilization and "energy release", They are likely to "target" populated areas and /or cause disruption to power, communications, transportation, or food supply.  Events associated with this pattern are volcanoes, earthquakes, violent storms, and fires.

 

Flooding Worries, but little Risk of Natural Disaster

In the Midwest, people have been watching rivers already at flood stage, threatened by rains yesterday and today.  There have been evacuations, and levees are being carefully watched for possible breaches.

For the past few days, natural disaster risk has not risen, it has been dropping.  Just a week ago, U.S. damage risk was at "serious" levels and global risk at "disaster." Yet, at this point, it would be highly unlikely for a serious natural disaster to occur within the U.S. and there is only a very small chance that one would happen anywhere in the world. 

Just a reminder, we are not out of the woods for human-caused disasters.  There could still be another big one in the next few days.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Natural Disasters' Relationship to Social Mood: How we chart it

In a recent conversation with a university dept. head, it was expressed that the meteorology dept. was concerned about possible catastrophic tornadoes in the early spring this year in the Midwest.  We were able to tell him that while we were watching for the next big U.S. disaster in the early spring, that the risk of it being a natural disaster was low.  However, close to April 9 there would be a greater risk for a natural event.  As it turned out, those big storms that blew across the U.S. (Walda) were the most powerful on April 8-10. Yet, we told him this before Walda even had a name.  How was this possible?

 

We get social mood from Google Hot Trends.  This tells us where people are at.  We also measure the mood reflected in current events via top U.S. news stories, and its relation to social mood.  Before a disaster occurs, of any sort, there is a process that we have found always occurs.  Basically, where people are at and where the news is at reaches a maximum divergence, then a process begins that brings it all back together.  Disasters, whether natural or human caused are a primary means of things getting in sync again.  We can't talk about why without getting into metaphysical supposition. Yet, we have a method that makes this process repeatable, observable and quantifiable. 

The above chart is derived from the relationship of entropy and its opposite phimation,*  and their divergence between social mood and the news.  We quantify this in the way we categorize the social mood data that we gather. When entropy in the news  (vs. where people are at) is sufficient and then phimation surpasses it, that means a natural disaster is likely. In the  above chart, the light yellow range (45-55%) will likely not do much damage in the U.S., but may manifest in serious natural event damage elsewhere (e.g. the recent Iran earthquake).  In the middle orange range (55-70%), there will likely be some serious damage, but it won’t be seen as a national “disaster” (e.g. Walda); also it may manifest as a natural disaster outside of the U.S.. The top red range (>70%) indicates events that will be experienced as natural disasters in the U.S. are almost certain; risk for major natural disasters elsewhere would also be very high. 

This is all based on a recent breakthrough we had on the nature of disasters in late February, which has given us so much more to work with. Hope that helps to clarify our approach and the connection between disasters and social mood.  For more on this recent breakthrough, check out the presentation: Disaster: Society's Shadow.

 

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .


* Phimation as the self-organizing principle or force opposing entropy in complex systems was first used by Robert Prechter.

Earthquakes and Violence: A Path to Vulnerability - Global Mood thru April 25

Global Violence Warning: According to social mood changes, there is an extreme risk of terrorist activity and/or geopolitical escalation on a global scale after April 17.


The social mood through April 25 reflects aggression, ideological warfare, and sacrifice for a "higher purpose." People want action, and are willing to take matters into their own hands if necessary.  The Boston Marathon attack is one example of this, but the social mood signature gets even more extreme after April 17.

The clues we get about the type of events come from MoodCompass type NE- "victim of unprovoked attack" or "vulnerable."  Also, U.S. social mood continues to be extremely manic, overconfident, and optimistic in spite of the destruction of Walda, in spite of mass stabbing at a Texas college, and in spite of the more recent events in Boston.  We can stand together proudly and affirm that this is the resilient "American Spirit," however, the mood shows the type of extremity that occurs when it is grasping at straws to hang in there.  A change is coming.

This is a global alert, and this might manifest in events in Europe, in the U.S., or elsewhere.  There are likely to be direct or indirect economic consequences of the events.  Currently, terrorist activity, or violence propagated by disturbed individuals or fringe groups is more likely than new warfare by geopolitical powers, but that could change during the alert period.

There is a high risk for significant natural events during this period.  The types most associated with this configuration are earthquakes, violent storms, and wildfires.  If there are any large volcanic eruptions, globally, that will indicate the shift has occurred that makes warfare more likely than a terrorist attack.

Whether violence or earthquakes or some other destabilizing set of events, the net result to balance out the social mood and deflate this potential for increasing scale disasters is clear.  The time of the unfettered manic mood needs to come to a close, spending and consumption need to slow, and focus needs to shift from never-ending expansion to more immediate needs of food on the table, safety, family and community.  The kinds of nurturing, community-oriented behaviors that people displayed in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon event was a start.  It certainly would be less destructive if we as a society were to move in this direction easily, and not through the darker version of "vulnerability to unprovoked attack," or some other type of victimization.  For now, the mood signature is saying, "victim" is the more likely path.  Perhaps this will change.  Perhaps we can do our part to change it.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Next U.S. Disaster Window: April 2-11

The next major U.S. disaster is likely about a week away.  Over the last few weeks, we have been discussing a next in the series of increasing scale U.S. tragedies (i.e. Aurora, CO., Libya Ambassador, Hurricane Sandy, and Sandy Hook).  Our measuring stick is a quantification of the relationship between U.S. social mood as found in Google Hot Trends and the context society finds itself in and is creating (U.S. news).  Latest information puts the event occurring April 2-11, with the most likely timeframe as April 4-9. 

This next tragedy has been in phase 3 of 3 of its creation since March 17.  There was a preliminary wave in mid-March, which manifested in unusual and sad stories, but with no sign of the "pressure release" that would allow us to consider phase 3 as completed.

To summarize the latest information:

1) MoodCompass Type is E SE.  This goes with violent protests, mayhem, terrorist activity, and unusual or surprising events.  It is more likely to be initiated by a lone disturbed individual or fringe group than a geopolitical entity (government).  Natural disasters associated with this configuration are earthquakes and violent storms (including cyclones or high winds).  The currently developing U.S. event shows a low probability of being a natural disaster.

2) The event might or might not originate from outside of the U.S.  If the event originates in the United States, the most likely region for it to occur is West/Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the Northeastern U.S.

3) As the events in the series are of increasing subjective impact, there may or may not be more casualties than the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, but it should have a larger emotional impact for most people in the U.S.


During this period there is a very high risk globally, for the types of events listed in 1) above.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .





 

Violent-upheaval possible thru Oct. 22

Changes in social mood generated a new signal, creating the following alert:

 

 

There is a high risk for event(s) perceived as crisis, upheaval, or disaster especially between October 12-19. Casualty estimates are between 6 and 60*. 

 

There is an elevated risk for event(s) perceived as violent protests or terrorist activity especially between October 15-22.  A small number of casualties are possible*.

 

Because these signals overlap, they may be part of a single event or set of events, such as a violent-upheaval.

 

Significant natural events may occur during this period. If so, the types most associated with the current pattern are tornadoes (cyclones) and earthquakes.

 

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of expected impact to U.S. society. If the event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater. An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. market failure).

For more information on The MoodCompass Project see moodcompass.com.

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Update
10/17/12: Man held in NYC plot to blow up Federal Reserve
                Denver bar set on fire with five murder victims inside
10/18/12: Clashes erupt at Greek anti-austerity protests
                  Tornadoes leave thousands without power
                  Google filing error shocks investors
10/21/12:  Gunman shoots 7 at Wisconsin spa

April 2012 Socioeconomic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Outlook (video)

Analysis of mood and perception for April 2012, and likely associated socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events.

March 2012 Socioeconomic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Outlook (video)

Analysis of social mood and perception projected for March 2012, and likely associated socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events.

MoodCompass in the News!

Our research in forecasting global mood and perception made the TV News!



WBKO original: http://www.wbko.com/home/headlines/Group_Using_Research_to_Predict_Disasters__Global_Events_138962294.html

WNKY original: http://www.wnky.net/news/139089249.html?video=pop&t=a

Quake, Volcano, and Storm Alert - Sept 2011 (video)

Analysis of human perception of nature projected for September 2011

Destruction, Denial, and Despair - July 2011

Highlights: Global situation continues to deteriorate; global leaders in denial ∙ People grow tired of bad news ∙ U.S. government chaos ∙ Earthquake watch, Southern California

Special Alert: Serious Flooding and Cyclones, North America

Natural events:
June 29 – July 6 Risk of high loss natural event; earthquake risk, Southern California.
July 7 – 11 Possible natural event seen as serious, deadly, and/or related to disease.
July 19 – 27 Elevated risk of serious flooding and cyclones, N. America.

The above is an excerpt from the July 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Earthquake and Flood Alert N. America June/July 2011 (video)

Analysis of human perception of nature projected for June - early July 2011: Southern California earthquake watch and more storms and flooding for North America.

The U.S. Strikes Back - June 2011

Highlights: Global system under duress ∙ People feeling unsafe and risk averse ∙ U.S. government doles out death and justice ∙ Earthquake watch, Southern California ∙ Storm and flood watch, E. North America

Special Alert: U.S. strikes hard at an enemy. Is it N. Korea?

Natural events: June 9-14 and June 28 – July 3 are the greatest risk periods for natural events with moderate to high losses. Of particular interest is Southern California, for which a moderate earthquake watch is issued. Also, the Eastern half of N. America looks like a candidate for more storms and flooding in June.


The above is an excerpt from the June 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

MoodCompass is now available to the general public. You can view the current issue at http://moodcompass.com/.

Significant Weather Events - Mar 2011 Video

Highlights: Destructive event East Asia. Severe storms N. America. Volcano alert Hawaii. MoodCompass weather forecast for March 2011.

Significant Weather Events - Feb 2011 Videocast

Highlights: Destructive Event warnings for Hawaii, S. California, and Far East Asia, Heavy snow in N.E. United States, & N. Europe. MoodCompass weather forecast for February 2011.

January 2011 – A New Normal for a New Year

The year begins with hope for the future, and optimism that things are finally getting back on track—economic recovery perhaps is possible. Yet, before the year is into double digit days, a major paradigm shift should be seen to be taking place. The catalyst for this shift may lie in the geopolitical picture. In a global economy, how can any single country or region expect to do well when another is in disarray? Is the U.S. debt going to remain largely irrelevant while European countries and states within the United States struggle with defaults and restructuring? With a significant escalation in the Korea situation likely (see maps below) and Asian economies sure to be directly impacted, how can the West expect to remain immune?

Given the collective mood for the month, January appears to be a month of rebalancing. Exuberance and recklessness should give way to caution and risk aversion. Gestures of cooperation on the part of world leaders and governments should give way to increasing displays of isolationism and protectionism. Attempts at political harmony could turn to outright enmity. Overbought markets should give back some of last year’s gains, and the U.S. Dollar should make quite a comeback against other currencies.

The human perception of the natural world exhibits this same theme of rebalancing in an aversion of excess energy. Some of the ways this could manifest would be below normal temperatures, heavy precipitation, and releasing of tectonic energy in the form of earthquakes.

By the end of January there may be a strong feeling that the year has begun in a wrong direction, and a collective cry may be heard, “Could we just start the New Year over?”

The above is an excerpt from the January 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Discord, Disasters, and Depression - Nov 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Global paradigm shift, Social chaos & violence, Middle East crisis, Market volatility, High impact natural event(s). A global mood "weather forecast" for November 2010.

September 2010 - U.S. Chaos and Global Volcanoes

Helplessness and fear left unchecked will find “resolution” in hate and release in violence. Economic stagnation with no end in sight, media rhetoric that exacerbates fear and feelings of powerlessness, and high uncertainty about what lies ahead, all simmer together under increasing pressure in the social milieu.

In September, the region of the world with the highest likelihood of violent social eruptions is the United States of America. The initial release of steam from a pressure cooker can be quite intense. Initial violations of long standing social prohibitions can likewise be quite dramatic, and could take the form of isolated incidents of violence or property destruction, or on the more extreme end, could be expressed as anti-group or anti-government acts of terror.

Also in September, we can expect escalating geopolitical tension. A crisis involving N. Korea is probable, and a Middle East episode not unlikely. In the natural world, a parallel theme of eruptions and pressure release should not be surprising. Watch for volcanoes and earthquakes to make an appearance in this month’s headlines.

The above is an excerpt from the September 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.