Flooding Worries, but little Risk of Natural Disaster

In the Midwest, people have been watching rivers already at flood stage, threatened by rains yesterday and today.  There have been evacuations, and levees are being carefully watched for possible breaches.

For the past few days, natural disaster risk has not risen, it has been dropping.  Just a week ago, U.S. damage risk was at "serious" levels and global risk at "disaster." Yet, at this point, it would be highly unlikely for a serious natural disaster to occur within the U.S. and there is only a very small chance that one would happen anywhere in the world. 

Just a reminder, we are not out of the woods for human-caused disasters.  There could still be another big one in the next few days.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Earthquakes and Violence: A Path to Vulnerability - Global Mood thru April 25

Global Violence Warning: According to social mood changes, there is an extreme risk of terrorist activity and/or geopolitical escalation on a global scale after April 17.


The social mood through April 25 reflects aggression, ideological warfare, and sacrifice for a "higher purpose." People want action, and are willing to take matters into their own hands if necessary.  The Boston Marathon attack is one example of this, but the social mood signature gets even more extreme after April 17.

The clues we get about the type of events come from MoodCompass type NE- "victim of unprovoked attack" or "vulnerable."  Also, U.S. social mood continues to be extremely manic, overconfident, and optimistic in spite of the destruction of Walda, in spite of mass stabbing at a Texas college, and in spite of the more recent events in Boston.  We can stand together proudly and affirm that this is the resilient "American Spirit," however, the mood shows the type of extremity that occurs when it is grasping at straws to hang in there.  A change is coming.

This is a global alert, and this might manifest in events in Europe, in the U.S., or elsewhere.  There are likely to be direct or indirect economic consequences of the events.  Currently, terrorist activity, or violence propagated by disturbed individuals or fringe groups is more likely than new warfare by geopolitical powers, but that could change during the alert period.

There is a high risk for significant natural events during this period.  The types most associated with this configuration are earthquakes, violent storms, and wildfires.  If there are any large volcanic eruptions, globally, that will indicate the shift has occurred that makes warfare more likely than a terrorist attack.

Whether violence or earthquakes or some other destabilizing set of events, the net result to balance out the social mood and deflate this potential for increasing scale disasters is clear.  The time of the unfettered manic mood needs to come to a close, spending and consumption need to slow, and focus needs to shift from never-ending expansion to more immediate needs of food on the table, safety, family and community.  The kinds of nurturing, community-oriented behaviors that people displayed in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon event was a start.  It certainly would be less destructive if we as a society were to move in this direction easily, and not through the darker version of "vulnerability to unprovoked attack," or some other type of victimization.  For now, the mood signature is saying, "victim" is the more likely path.  Perhaps this will change.  Perhaps we can do our part to change it.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

E. Asia War Risk - Sept - Oct 2011 (video)

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate an increased risk of military escalation in Asia.