U.S. Disaster Could be Imminent, August 9, 2013

We have continued to track social mood in the background these past few months, and have had nothing much to say about disasters for some time.  However, we have to mention this spike in disaster risk that has been forming over the last few days, and has just turned critical. 

 

According to U.S. social mood factors, the most likely type of disaster is MoodCompass type S SE.  For human caused disasters, this corresponds with terrorist attacks, violent protests, riots, and other anti-establishment violence.  We are all already aware of a high alert in many of our embassies overseas.  For natural disasters, the most likely type would be fires or earthquakes. 

 

According to NOAA, there is no extremely bad weather in the forecast.  Yet, globally, there is an extreme risk for a natural disaster on the scale of last year's Superstorm Sandy (worse than that if it happens outside the U.S.) on August 9 (which may also continue over the weekend).  The chart that shows the spike in natural disaster risk is below.

 

Update 8/10/13: The spike was a one day window, apparently we got through OK.  However, this indicates that we may be in for a time of increased global crises and both human and natural disasters.  Will keep you posted.

 

Out with the Old...

Our world is about to change at a pace that has never been seen before in all of human history.  A paradigm shift has begun.  For many it will be painful, for some it will be exhilarating.  The extent of our turmoil may be measured by the persistence with which we cling to the pursuit of how it's always been or to our old ideas of how things should be.  Adaptability and flexibility are key virtues that will get each of us through the days ahead.  Cooperation and community will be hallmarks of success.

The work that MoodCompass has done in tracking disasters has been successful.  We have learned that it can be done, and have demonstrated that there is connection between ourselves and our world.  However, because of where we are at in history, it does not make sense to continue to focus on disasters at this point.  There's a good chance that people will find all the disaster-type events they hear about in the news in the coming years to be overwhelming, or at least something to tune out and turn away from.  We need to find a different focus, and are trying to figure out right now what that might be.

We have discontinued our tracking of social mood's connection with the stock market as well.  The market will be quickly on its way to irrelevancy in the months ahead, as it already is for most people now.

Transformation is magical.  It can be frightening when it happens to us and our world.  Yet, as we let go of what we have clung to, either by choice or by force, we make room for something unexpected and potentially beautiful.  That is our hope for the world, now, and in the years ahead.

 

Stopping Disaster

On June 2, we posted a warning of being in the Global Disaster Zone through June 10.  Then an amazing thing happened.  The following day, we moved out of the "zone."  Is that a coincidence?  Did the few hundred people who read the post respond in a way that a global disaster was prevented or delayed?  There's no way to know for sure whether a thing would have happened.  Today, the risk once again nears the critical zone.  Is there a way to stop or delay disaster?  Is it possible to repeat what happened after the June 2 post?

On the right side of the chart below, it can be seen that as of the 1st post, collective mood was just entering the "Global Disaster Zone," and then promptly left it as the blue line moved down the following day.  It began moving up again on Friday, June 7, which also meant an increasing risk of disaster type events.  While not large enough to be considered a disaster, a tragic event occurred, a mass shooting at Santa Monica College in California.  As of today, the disaster zone is getting quite near again.  What will happen this time?

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

In the Global Disaster Zone

The last time collective mood was in the Global Disaster Zone, there were the violent storms in the U.S. called Walda followed by the Boston Marathon event, the West Texas fertilizer plant explosion, and then devastating earthquakes in Iran and China.  Before that was a superstorm called Sandy.  What will happen this time?



Collective mood cycles from extreme disconnection from the events happening in the world around us (the news) to a reconciliation where we "wake up" to events that grab our attention or impact us at a deep emotional level.  Like a rubber band being stretched and released, the farther we go during the disconnection phase, the more impactful the reconciliation tends to be.

At the place we are in for about the next ten days, global disasters are more likely than not.  And because the source of this data is U.S. mood, it indicates when events especially impactful to people in the United States should occur.

The themes of events likely to occur at the hands of human beings are organized or directed violence and the experience of victimization or vulnerability.  This could also show up as social instability (e.g. angry protests) or market volatility (violent market moves).  Events likely to occur in Nature should reflect themes of fire and/or flood (e.g. volcanoes, violent storms, and possibly earthquakes).  There is also a background natural theme of epidemic, health, and mortality.

There are more details on the likely disasters in the previous two posts, so let's not belabor that here.  When disasters affect us personally they are tragic, but the point of this is not that we are all doomed.  The point is how amazing it is that our world is connected to us and we are to it.  Disasters are a built in way to get our attention and remind us that we have become disconnected again.  When the rubber band gets pulled to these extremes and released, we all get relatively more connected for a moment.  It would be a really cool thing if there was a time in our not too distant future that we could remind ourselves somehow before the disconnection was so great as to put these things in motion.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .
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Update:
6/7/13: Santa Monica College Shooting leaves seven dead
 

Another Disaster in the Making?

Since July 2012, there have been five major tragic events in the U.S.  Each of these disasters have followed a three-step process from inception to manifestation.  Looking at just step one and manifestation, we will be able to see just how close we are getting to beginning the process toward the next U.S. disaster.

 

Looking at disasters on a societal level, this chart shows the relationship between the events in the news and social mood (derived from mood in top U.S. news stories vs. Google Hot Trends).  In this continuous pattern of increasing scale disasters, a line is crossed that begins the process of manifestation of the next tragic event.  We are calling this the "karma point."  Crossing this is step one of three toward the next tragic event.  It is a point of maximum separation or disconnection between where we are at in our experience (as a whole) compared with the events showing up in the news.  After this point of maximum distancing of ourselves from what is going on, a rebalancing process ensues.  A tragic event occurs near the culmination of this, and we are for a brief moment reconnected with the news and with the rest of society. 

It is interesting how quickly after the Boston Marathon event that we collectively moved to distance ourselves from the news and those bad things "out there."  Will we continue forward and cross the karma line in the next few days, ushering in the process of the next event?  Is it possible we could pause for a moment and look at the things in our own lives that are destructive to ourselves and to the world?  Would we dare change one little thing?  If only a few of us stopped to look at the destructive potential in ourselves, could it make a difference?  Is it possible to stop the next disaster from taking shape, at least for the moment? 

For a more detailed description of the process of disaster formation, see Disaster: Society's Shadow.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Flooding Worries, but little Risk of Natural Disaster

In the Midwest, people have been watching rivers already at flood stage, threatened by rains yesterday and today.  There have been evacuations, and levees are being carefully watched for possible breaches.

For the past few days, natural disaster risk has not risen, it has been dropping.  Just a week ago, U.S. damage risk was at "serious" levels and global risk at "disaster." Yet, at this point, it would be highly unlikely for a serious natural disaster to occur within the U.S. and there is only a very small chance that one would happen anywhere in the world. 

Just a reminder, we are not out of the woods for human-caused disasters.  There could still be another big one in the next few days.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Are we done with disasters?

With this past alert period (April 2-11) we experienced a combination of two U.S. events that could have been much worse than they were. From April 8-11 was the fiercest impact of Walda. There were 3 official fatalities, some buildings destroyed and some roofs blown off, but it could have been worse. On April 9, there were 14 people stabbed at a college in Texas, yet no one was killed.

Both of these events matched the type of events in the series of major U.S. tragedies since July 2012 (Aurora, CO theater, Libya ambassador, Hurricane Sandy, and Sandy Hook), and both reflected the MoodCompass event types we were watching for. Yet, neither by itself was as severe as the other items in the series. There are two possible conclusions we can draw from this:
1) Two half-disasters can take the place of one big one.
2) This again was not "the big one" and something else will have to happen to relieve pressure and restore balance.

While we have to allow that a larger, more impactful event is still on its way, we are going to assume conclusion 1) for now, and that this particular balancing is over. However, there is still a larger imbalance that has remained mostly untouched for many months, even in the presence of the tragic U.S. events that have been happening. Is this more of a global imbalance that will require a global resolution? We will be keeping a close watch on that.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 4/15/13: The Boston Marathon terrorist attack today confirmed, unfortunately, that it was #2 above.  This adds Boston Marathon to the growing list of U.S. tragedies above.

New Info on April 2-11 U.S. Crisis Type

The MoodCompass Type of the event expected was E SE, and has shifted to E NE.  We now have to look at two possible scenarios.

Scenario 1:  The event(s) could come as a one-two punch including aspects of both MoodCompass types E SE and E NE, following how the mood shifts developed in phase 3.  E SE goes with violent protests, mayhem, terrorist activity, and unusual or surprising events.  It is more likely to be initiated by a lone disturbed individual or fringe group than a geopolitical entity (government).  E NE goes with domestic issues, the economy and diplomacy.  All together, this could mean a surprise event, followed by an economic impact.

Natural disasters associated with E SE are earthquakes and violent storms (including cyclones or high winds).  Natural events associated with E NE would be hail or snow storms, and cyclones.  The probability of the currently developing U.S. event being a natural disaster will rise substantially near the end of this period. 

Scenario 2: The event(s) take on MoodCompass type E which is associated with communications, information, the internet, etc.  It can also be associated with deception or with money.  It is difficult to imagine an information type disaster more emotionally impactful than the Sandy Hook shooting, but we have to allow for this possibility.  The types of natural events associated with type E are major storms and high winds.  The probability of the currently developing U.S. event being a natural disaster will rise substantially near the end of this period. 

To summarize the latest information beyond the two scenarios above:

1) Likely time window for the next major U.S. crisis in the series that began July 2012 (i.e. Aurora, CO., Libya Ambassador, Hurricane Sandy, and Sandy Hook) is April 2-11.  The most likely period is April 4-9.  Update 4/8/13... natural  event risk surpassing human caused risk today.

2) The event might or might not originate from outside of the U.S.  If the event originates in the United States, the most likely region for it to occur is West/Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the deep South.

3) As the events in the series are of increasing subjective impact, there may or may not be more casualties than the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, but it should have a larger emotional impact for most people in the U.S.

During this period, there is a very high risk globally, for the types of events listed in either scenario one or two above.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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News on actual events reflecting the E SE / E NE collective mood type during the alert period:
4/9/13 Snow, tornado threat mix in Spring weather tango
           Texas college stabbing: 14 injured, 2 in critical condition
4/10/13 Gunman killed after holding five Georgia firemen hostage
              Man calmly walks into Home Depot and saws both arms down to bone
             Update on the unusual Winter Storm Walda
4/11/13  Storm update; 2 dead, State of Emergency in MO
4/12/13 Storm update; 3 dead, thousands w/o power in Midwest and Deep South

Likely Location for a U.S. Event

While the MoodCompass Team got to be on the news for getting the location of the Japan earthquake/tsunami right in March of 2011, due to funding cuts and lack of personnel, we have had to devise less labor intensive methods for getting potential location data for future significant events.

If the event that still looks like it is preparing to show up, does indeed manifest, we would like to give a head's up to the most likely areas.  The method we are using to do this is still experimental, and we will need a few more incidents to verify that we are on the right track.  If a major tragic event originates in the United States in March or early April, the most likely region for it to occur is Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the Northeastern U.S., although it could occur in less likely places-- such is the nature of probability.  Looking at it globally, if it happened in March, it would most likely occur on the West coast of North America, Northern Africa, or Europe.  For an event that ends up manifesting in early April, we do not yet have sufficient data to say where the highest locations globally would be.

And, if the "storm clouds" dissipate and there is no event to be expected, we will be very happy to share that here.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Another U.S. Tragedy Unfolding: March 16-23

Recently, we announced a breakthrough in understanding the nature of disasters, or at least in the process of watching them develop and then manifest.  This is possible through observation and measurement of changes in U.S. social mood and current U.S. events in the news.  It appears that collectively, we may play a part in the direction that these tragic events eventually manifest, whether we are individually aware of that or not. 

The current wave of increasing scale events has displayed as the Aurora, Colorado theater shooting; the Libya ambassador shooting and Muslim uprising; superstorm Sandy; and the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting.  Currently, the next major event in this series of U.S. tragedies is preparing to reveal itself.  Data on social mood changes as of today, indicate that it is a week or two away from showing up.

The initial signal or phase 1 of 3 for the next in this series of increasing scale major U.S. events was observed on February 28.  This gave an initial estimated manifestation of March 17 - April 9.

Phase 2 of 3 is finishing up.  Information as of today narrowed the time estimate to March 16 - 23.

There will be information about the type of event when phase 3 begins, but that will be only a few days before the event occurs.

We are hopeful that at some point, this type of information could allow us to collectively shift course before such tragic events take place.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Breaking News: Do We Make Disasters? (video)

Collectively, we may be somehow participating in the making of the disasters that affect the country and world as a whole.  Disaster events of increasing scale are part of a continuous wave that began in June 2012.  As of March 3, 2013, the next U.S. event is on step 2 of a 3 step process.  Can something be done to avoid it?



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 3/5/13:
Next major U.S. event estimated between March 17 and April 9. Still in phase 2 of 3.

Confused & Surprised: Global Mood thru Feb 21, '13

Social mood through February 21 reflects uncertainty, confusion, and the unexpected. People are contrarian and argumentative, making group efforts challenging.

U.S. Disaster Alert:  Social mood changes indicate that an event perceived as a crisis, upheaval, or disaster is likely to occur Feb. 11-21 in or directly affecting the United States of America.

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents are likely to increase in frequency and in scale.

Epidemic factors are showing a slight increase. While a peak in the flu outbreak has likely already occurred, this could be an especially bad week.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated. 

Significant Natural Events: Risks for significant natural events are elevated. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and wildfires.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Examples of this social mood configuration in the news:
2/10-14: Carnival Triumph- "The cruise from hell"
2/15: Meteorite hits Russia with force of atomic bomb, about 1100 injured
2/19: 4 dead, including suspect, in Orange County shooting spree.
         Gas explosion ignites restaurant in Kansas City; dozens injured
2/20-21: Wall Street drops on growth concerns, fear index jumps
2/21: Shooting, fiery crash on Las Vegas strip leaves 3 dead

Angry and Active, Global Mood thru Jan 28, '13

The social mood for Jan 25-28 reflects a desire for action, and a willingness to take action.  People are angry and argumentative, making cooperative efforts challenging.  Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents should continue to grab news headlines.

Epidemic factors, while still elevated,  are beginning to show a decrease.  A peak in the flu outbreak may be occuring.

Globally, the liklihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated.  However, no major disaster is anticipated.

Significant Natural Events: While no major disasters are expected, there is an elevated risk for significant natural events. The types most associated with the current pattern are volcanoes, earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and wildfires.


For more information on the current outlook or The MoodCompass Project see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also join the MoodCompass Project on .


*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of potential impact to U.S. society. Events of equivalent impact without fatalities are also possible (e.g. economic loss). Also, since U.S. social mood changes are the measure, if  event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.

Hawaii Panic Ahead (12/29 to 1/5/13)

Hawaii social mood has shifted to a panic configuration indicating a local crisis is just ahead.  As previously posted, we have been concerned with indicators in the state of Hawaii, and have been watching for the signal that would confirm the direction things were heading from the extremely serious tone that has been observed since early December.

The indicated mood can be described as "panic" or "passion."
The type of event signaled can be described as "crisis," "upheaval," or "disaster."

For more information about potential casualties, the current global outlook, or the MoodCompass Project see http://moodcompass.com.

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Update:
1/5/13- Windy conditions cause damage and destruction across Hawaii
             Violent winds across islands take toll on roofs and trees

Hawaii Disaster Warning, Update

Alert period: December 15 - 22, 2012

To Recap:

Changes in observed Hawaiian social mood has generated a signal indicating an event that should be perceived as crisis, disaster, or upheaval by the people of Hawaii is likley to occur within the alert period.

Such events are often related to violence, unrest, or natural disasters.  The local factor related to protests and mass violence is slightly elevated, but not extreme.

The charts below show the "temperature" or intensities of each of several risk factors of U.S. social mood which are also proportionate globally.  If the Hawaii event is related to mass violence, the event or precipitating event would most likely occur  by December 15.

Should a natural disaster be the primary source of the indicated crisis, the most likely type would be a tsunami or volcanic eruption.

Below is the current U.S. damage risk "thermometer" which gives a potential casualty level per type of damage that the social mood would support occuring within the U.S.*

*An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. economic loss).

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com

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Update: January 3, 2013:
The "Hawaii Disaster" during this period was apparently the death of well-respected, long time senator Daniel Inoyue.  Besides the emotional impact, according to the Hawaii budget head, economically, his death will result in an "economic cliff" for Hawaii, bigger than the federal fiscal cliff.

 

Update, Dec. '12 Hawaii Crisis Alert

A confirmation signal was generated by social mood changes in Hawaii that a disaster-type event or series of events is likely in the near future.  The subjective impact to Hawaiians of this event should be greater than the Aurora, CO theater shooting or the Libya ambassador killing was experienced by most Americans.  The event(s) may be described as crisis, disaster, or upheaval.

It should be noted that there is no U.S.-wide signal reflecting a disaster, crisis or upheaval.  Therefore, unless a U.S. signal is generated in the next few days, it is expected to be perceived by Hawaiians as a much more impactful event than is perceived by the average American.

The charts below show the "temperature" or intensity of the risk factors for Hawaii and for the United States as a whole.

 



 For more information on the MoodCompass Project see: http://moodcompass.com.

Crisis Warning, Hawaii Dec. 2012

We are currently monitoring a disaster-type signal generated by changes in the social mood in Hawaii and are waiting for a secondary confirmation signal.  This would indicate a near future event or series of events that would be perceived by the people in Hawaii as a disaster, crisis, or  upheaval.  We will keep you posted, and will update with further details as we get them.

Violent-upheaval possible thru Oct. 22

Changes in social mood generated a new signal, creating the following alert:

 

 

There is a high risk for event(s) perceived as crisis, upheaval, or disaster especially between October 12-19. Casualty estimates are between 6 and 60*. 

 

There is an elevated risk for event(s) perceived as violent protests or terrorist activity especially between October 15-22.  A small number of casualties are possible*.

 

Because these signals overlap, they may be part of a single event or set of events, such as a violent-upheaval.

 

Significant natural events may occur during this period. If so, the types most associated with the current pattern are tornadoes (cyclones) and earthquakes.

 

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of expected impact to U.S. society. If the event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater. An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. market failure).

For more information on The MoodCompass Project see moodcompass.com.

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Update
10/17/12: Man held in NYC plot to blow up Federal Reserve
                Denver bar set on fire with five murder victims inside
10/18/12: Clashes erupt at Greek anti-austerity protests
                  Tornadoes leave thousands without power
                  Google filing error shocks investors
10/21/12:  Gunman shoots 7 at Wisconsin spa

Unrests, protests, but no disasters

Social Mood patterns indicate a drop in factors related to disaster, crisis and upheaval. Indicators of unrest and violent protests are still elevated.  So, globally, there may be some instances of unrest or protests through October 11, 2012.  However, widespread unrest or violence is unlikely.  Also, the likelihood of any major disaster is low. Enjoy the moment!

 

For more information see moodcompass.com.



 

Angry, Explosive, Destructive Sept. 14-18, 2012

The social mood is flashing red as we go into this weekend.  In fact, there has been no time this year that such a potentially dangerous collective mood has registered. There are symptomatic events in the news such as the Chicago teacher's strike and the Arab world up in arms, attacking U.S. embassies. You may even have noticed yourself or the people around you feeling extra edgy, argumentative, even explosive.  This mood pattern continues through next Tuesday, so do your best to keep a cool head and prevent any permanent damage to otherwise good relationships.

For further details on the social mood "temperature," and the latest alerts see moodcompass.com.