U.S. Outlook for August 2015 (video)

Global uncertainty rises and assumptions are challenged, according to the U.S. social mood "weather forecast" for August 2015.  A serious or deadly event on the California coast is also a possibility.
 

Unexpected Explosions of Violence

Violent explosion!  I read those words a few days ago in conjunction with the unexpected eruption of a volcano in Chile.  It made me wonder what was about to happen next.  Unlike many, I do not believe this is an isolated incident, nor is it “random.”  It is part of an overall pattern in play right now (MoodCompass Type: SSE).  This is Nature’s expression of it for the moment.  This same pattern in the human world can look like sudden geopolitical escalation, violent protests, or even terrorist activity.  In the markets it often goes with sudden spikes in the price of oil and gasoline.  There was a violent explosion with an unexpected twist in the news today -- two hostages were inadvertently killed in a drone strike, albeit last January.


Expect the unexpected in world news over the next week or two.  Expect surprising explosive events or violence with an unexpected twist.  Personally, I recommend you do what you can to keep your world calm and centered.  Things will likely get worked out one way or another on the global scene so that “business as usual” may prevail.  There is quite an investment in the status quo, and for now, keeping it in tact is strong motivation for world leaders.  So, whatever volcanoes, skirmishes, or other unexpected explosions appear over the next week or two, do your best to stay cool!

In the Global Disaster Zone

The last time collective mood was in the Global Disaster Zone, there were the violent storms in the U.S. called Walda followed by the Boston Marathon event, the West Texas fertilizer plant explosion, and then devastating earthquakes in Iran and China.  Before that was a superstorm called Sandy.  What will happen this time?



Collective mood cycles from extreme disconnection from the events happening in the world around us (the news) to a reconciliation where we "wake up" to events that grab our attention or impact us at a deep emotional level.  Like a rubber band being stretched and released, the farther we go during the disconnection phase, the more impactful the reconciliation tends to be.

At the place we are in for about the next ten days, global disasters are more likely than not.  And because the source of this data is U.S. mood, it indicates when events especially impactful to people in the United States should occur.

The themes of events likely to occur at the hands of human beings are organized or directed violence and the experience of victimization or vulnerability.  This could also show up as social instability (e.g. angry protests) or market volatility (violent market moves).  Events likely to occur in Nature should reflect themes of fire and/or flood (e.g. volcanoes, violent storms, and possibly earthquakes).  There is also a background natural theme of epidemic, health, and mortality.

There are more details on the likely disasters in the previous two posts, so let's not belabor that here.  When disasters affect us personally they are tragic, but the point of this is not that we are all doomed.  The point is how amazing it is that our world is connected to us and we are to it.  Disasters are a built in way to get our attention and remind us that we have become disconnected again.  When the rubber band gets pulled to these extremes and released, we all get relatively more connected for a moment.  It would be a really cool thing if there was a time in our not too distant future that we could remind ourselves somehow before the disconnection was so great as to put these things in motion.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .
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Update:
6/7/13: Santa Monica College Shooting leaves seven dead
 

Weather, Violence, and Americans

The way we collectively feel (social mood) goes through cycles relative to the news, or the events from "out there" that happen to us.  Sometimes we are really disconnected from the news and the events in it seem really severe compared to our lives and the world we experience.  The cycle then moves toward a place of reconnection where how we feel reflects what is happening in the world around us and the events that occur likewise resonate with how we have been feeling.

We are entering that reconnection phase right now, and for the next week or so, the mood we are in collectively and the events we read about in our world will be in sync.  This is true not just for events about people, but all events.  If we are collectively content, the weather will be generally pleasant, and there won't be a lot of horrible stories of people hurting people in the news.  However, if we are collectively agitated, we will hear of stories of agitated people striking out in random ways and of unstable, agitated weather creating havoc in people's lives.  If we are collectively ready to charge ahead in pursuit of our goals no matter who gets in the way (as the mood is reflecting), we may hear stories of organized violence, terrorist attacks or geopolitical escalation (increased war risk and/or carnage).  The way this primarily shows up in Nature is violent weather, floods, and volcanoes.  With the current pattern, earthquakes and fires would also not be uncommon.

If during these periods, social mood, the stories of people in the news, and the events of Nature are all closely related; and if none of these are the primary cause of the other, but all reflecting one interconnected expression; then by changing one, the others would change.  Even if we can change none of these directly, we can perhaps change ourselves.  For those of us wanting to participate, we can look at how we are pushing to move forward in our own lives.  Being ready to charge ahead is great, there is nothing wrong with a burst of directed action.  However, without understanding, communication or connection of some type with who or what we might be pushing aside or running over, this can become destructive.  The challenge for those who want to try this, is to find this balance in yourself, at least through mid-June.  See if the days you find this balance don't happen to be the days absent of stormy weather and angry or violent news stories.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Volatility, Escalation and Volcanoes: Global Mood thru June 10

The social mood through June 10 shows a push for action in a definite direction, for better or for worse.  There is a need for release of the tension that has been building up over the past few weeks.  People have chosen sides and are looking for outlets of expression. It is time to charge ahead!

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence events should be on the increase during this period.  Risk of terrorist activity is elevated.  Any significant event is more likely to be organized by a group or government than a "lone wolf" individual.  The risk of geopolitical escalation (i.e. war risk), is higher than usual.

World markets may display increased instability and volatility.

Epidemic factors are elevated.  There may be concerns with disease, health, or mortality.  The China bird flu or some other issue may come back into the forefront.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated; natural disaster risk is on the rise from low levels.

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern would reflect the theme of "energy release" and secondarily "liquid."   Events associated with this pattern are volcanoes, floods, violent storms, fires, and earthquakes.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .
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Examples of this fiery mood type in the news:
5/31/13: Brawl erupts at Ohio kindergarten
5/31/13: Angeles National Forest Fire grows to 1400 acres
5/31/13: More deadly Oklahoma tornadoes
5/31/13: Four Houston firefighters killed in massive hotel fire

Volatile World Markets:
5/30/13: Rising volatility fuels push to lower risk

New Disease Concerns:
6/1/13: Frozen berry mix sparks hepatitis A outbreak
6/1/13: Why new MERS virus is scary

Earthquakes and Violence: A Path to Vulnerability - Global Mood thru April 25

Global Violence Warning: According to social mood changes, there is an extreme risk of terrorist activity and/or geopolitical escalation on a global scale after April 17.


The social mood through April 25 reflects aggression, ideological warfare, and sacrifice for a "higher purpose." People want action, and are willing to take matters into their own hands if necessary.  The Boston Marathon attack is one example of this, but the social mood signature gets even more extreme after April 17.

The clues we get about the type of events come from MoodCompass type NE- "victim of unprovoked attack" or "vulnerable."  Also, U.S. social mood continues to be extremely manic, overconfident, and optimistic in spite of the destruction of Walda, in spite of mass stabbing at a Texas college, and in spite of the more recent events in Boston.  We can stand together proudly and affirm that this is the resilient "American Spirit," however, the mood shows the type of extremity that occurs when it is grasping at straws to hang in there.  A change is coming.

This is a global alert, and this might manifest in events in Europe, in the U.S., or elsewhere.  There are likely to be direct or indirect economic consequences of the events.  Currently, terrorist activity, or violence propagated by disturbed individuals or fringe groups is more likely than new warfare by geopolitical powers, but that could change during the alert period.

There is a high risk for significant natural events during this period.  The types most associated with this configuration are earthquakes, violent storms, and wildfires.  If there are any large volcanic eruptions, globally, that will indicate the shift has occurred that makes warfare more likely than a terrorist attack.

Whether violence or earthquakes or some other destabilizing set of events, the net result to balance out the social mood and deflate this potential for increasing scale disasters is clear.  The time of the unfettered manic mood needs to come to a close, spending and consumption need to slow, and focus needs to shift from never-ending expansion to more immediate needs of food on the table, safety, family and community.  The kinds of nurturing, community-oriented behaviors that people displayed in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon event was a start.  It certainly would be less destructive if we as a society were to move in this direction easily, and not through the darker version of "vulnerability to unprovoked attack," or some other type of victimization.  For now, the mood signature is saying, "victim" is the more likely path.  Perhaps this will change.  Perhaps we can do our part to change it.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Destructive Action - Social Mood thru Dec. 31, 2012

According to changes detected in social mood patterns, destructive acts (or interventions) by governments, institutions, and organization are more likely than usual. The social mood is centered around destruction and disintegration. Polarization of worldviews is very high, and cooperation on any large scale endevour is near impossible.

The chances of a crisis or disaster-type event are elevated, generating a disaster watch.  However, a major disaster is not anticipated within the United States during this period* (see chart)

 

Destructive Natural events are possible during this period. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable/destructive weather, volcanoes, and toxic environments.

 

For more information on the MoodCompsss Project, see: http://moodcompass.com.



*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of potential impact to U.S. society. An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. economic loss). Also, since U.S. social mood changes are the measure, if the event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.

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News Examples of "Destructive Action":
12/24/2012:  Two firefighters shot and killed while responding to house fire.
12/25/2012: Messy, dangerous Christmas weather
12/27/2012:  Woman sleeping on Los Angeles bench set on fire
                          Man pushed to death in front of subway train
                         Winter weather death toll (U.S.) at least 15

Persian Gulf Escalation - Dec '11 (video)

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate a high risk of geopolitical escalation in the Persian Gulf in December 2011.

Persian Gulf Escalation - December 2011

There has been much discussion of Iran lately, and concerns with a possible U.S. aided Israeli strike are high.  While our analysis of global mood and perception for the month of December indeed indicates an escalation of the Persian Gulf situation, it does NOT support the likelihood of an Israeli airstrike, at least in December.  With the primary geopolitical risk area indicated being the Persian Gulf (see map above), one possible scenario is a naval buildup or blockade within the Gulf.  Note that Israel is not indicated as a likely initiator of hostilities.  Also the global distress that would result from an outright attack on Iran is missing from the social map (below).  It should be noted that the social mood factor that is labled "economic" in this map, besides indicating a contraction in spending, also corresponds with risk avoidance, anxiety, and wanting to stay close to family and home.  From this, it seems very likely that residents of the region surrounding the Persian Gulf will be much less sure of their near-term safety in December.

Actual events:
12/1/11: Israel: No Iran strike 'for the moment'
12/4/11: Iran reports downing U.S. drone
12/5/11: Iran warns of wider response
12/11/11: Iran refuses to return U.S. drone; warns of response to 'hostile' act
12/12/11: Iran hints at closing straits of Hormuz
12/13/11: Iran to hold military drills for closing straits of Hormuz
12/22/11: Iran's war games could force US aggression
12/23/11: Iran to start 10 day war games in int'l waters tomorrow

China unrest (as per social map):
12/14//11: China increasing security around embassy after window shot; Chinese village locked in rebellion

As the U.S. Withers, and the Dollar Dies - September 2011

It may be because this is the ten year anniversary of the September 11 attacks, and the media is reinforcing a societal remembrance of a very traumatic moment in U.S. history.  It could be due to recent events or because of some new tragedy right around the corner.  For whatever reasons, the social mood surrounding the 9/11 anniversary is depressing, the perception of the U.S. government is of an entity that is in serious trouble, and projections for the U.S. Dollar show that it could be in freefall.  Often such depressing moods on a societal level find temporary relief in expressions of violence or warfare.  With such a mood reflecting a global sentiment, will a token global “bad child” act out to divert our attention in the near future?

Highlights: Societal anger turns to gloom and despair∙ U.S. Dollar in freefall ∙ Global leaders in damage control mode ∙ In Nature: Storms, volcanoes, and earthquakes.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:

There are three major periods indicated for September--

(for more details, see the full version of MoodCompass)

September 1-6  Angry and Divided

September 7-22  [Tales of] the Demise of the U.S. (or U.S. Dollar)

September 23-30  Turning the Page

Global natural events:

September 1 - 14  Sunny, Stormy, and Active. Elevated risk of storms, floods, and volcanic eruptions mixed with what may be relatively benign weather.

September 15 - 26  Nature vs. Civilization. Watch for some disruptions to travel, communications, food production or food distribution. Elevated earthquake risk.

September 27 - 30  Hot and Active. Look for occasional storms and continued heat.

 
The above is an excerpt from the September 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

E. Asia War Risk - Sept - Oct 2011 (video)

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate an increased risk of military escalation in Asia.

The U.S. Strikes Back - June 2011

Highlights: Global system under duress ∙ People feeling unsafe and risk averse ∙ U.S. government doles out death and justice ∙ Earthquake watch, Southern California ∙ Storm and flood watch, E. North America

Special Alert: U.S. strikes hard at an enemy. Is it N. Korea?

Natural events: June 9-14 and June 28 – July 3 are the greatest risk periods for natural events with moderate to high losses. Of particular interest is Southern California, for which a moderate earthquake watch is issued. Also, the Eastern half of N. America looks like a candidate for more storms and flooding in June.


The above is an excerpt from the June 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

MoodCompass is now available to the general public. You can view the current issue at http://moodcompass.com/.

The U.S. Strikes Back - June 2011 Alert (video)

Highlights: Collective mood analysis indicates a dramatic change in global context associated with 1) A group or nation crossing a line, end of May. 2) The U.S. striking back in the month of June. Technical presentation illustrates.

Edge of a Cliff - May/June 2011 (video)

Candid discussion of the scale of events estimated to occur late May through June.

Terrorism, War & Asia - May 2011 Alert (video)

Analysis of collective mood factors indicate acceleration of global violence mid to late May. Most likely scenarios are Korean military escalation or E. Asia terrorist attack. Technical presentation illustrates.

Violence & War Talk - Special Alert Video Feb 2011

Global mood trends indicate an increase of violence and war rhetoric in February 2011.

Global Destabilization - August 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Pervasive global destabilization, Widespread social turmoil, Elevated economic risk, Increasing geopolitical uncertainty. A global mood "weather forecast" for August 2010.

Global Destabilization - August 2010

There is an unusual destabilizing configuration that appeared briefly in April, May and June. This configuration of both entropy factors working together did not appear at all in the month of July. In August, however, it runs solid throughout the entire month. If July was the edge of the cliff, August may be the first few steps off of it.

Socially, global unrest should continue to increase with Asia being of particular concern. Geopolitical tension should be quite high with several hot spots ready to erupt or escalate at the slightest provocation. Again, Asia is a focal point. The fabled economic recovery continues to be extremely fragile. Will it be able to tolerate such an unstable global scenario?

The above is an excerpt from the August 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

On The Brink - November 09 Videocast

The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for November 2009. US centered economic chaos, Military display(s) of force, Hawaii event, and more swine flu are the highlights.

Please Remain Calm - Sept 09 Videocast

The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for September 2009. Global Economic Crisis, Geopolitical Tension Increase, and Disease Concerns in Asia are the highlights.