Volatility, Escalation and Volcanoes: Global Mood thru June 10

The social mood through June 10 shows a push for action in a definite direction, for better or for worse.  There is a need for release of the tension that has been building up over the past few weeks.  People have chosen sides and are looking for outlets of expression. It is time to charge ahead!

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence events should be on the increase during this period.  Risk of terrorist activity is elevated.  Any significant event is more likely to be organized by a group or government than a "lone wolf" individual.  The risk of geopolitical escalation (i.e. war risk), is higher than usual.

World markets may display increased instability and volatility.

Epidemic factors are elevated.  There may be concerns with disease, health, or mortality.  The China bird flu or some other issue may come back into the forefront.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated; natural disaster risk is on the rise from low levels.

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern would reflect the theme of "energy release" and secondarily "liquid."   Events associated with this pattern are volcanoes, floods, violent storms, fires, and earthquakes.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
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Examples of this fiery mood type in the news:
5/31/13: Brawl erupts at Ohio kindergarten
5/31/13: Angeles National Forest Fire grows to 1400 acres
5/31/13: More deadly Oklahoma tornadoes
5/31/13: Four Houston firefighters killed in massive hotel fire

Volatile World Markets:
5/30/13: Rising volatility fuels push to lower risk

New Disease Concerns:
6/1/13: Frozen berry mix sparks hepatitis A outbreak
6/1/13: Why new MERS virus is scary

Persian Gulf Escalation - December 2011

There has been much discussion of Iran lately, and concerns with a possible U.S. aided Israeli strike are high.  While our analysis of global mood and perception for the month of December indeed indicates an escalation of the Persian Gulf situation, it does NOT support the likelihood of an Israeli airstrike, at least in December.  With the primary geopolitical risk area indicated being the Persian Gulf (see map above), one possible scenario is a naval buildup or blockade within the Gulf.  Note that Israel is not indicated as a likely initiator of hostilities.  Also the global distress that would result from an outright attack on Iran is missing from the social map (below).  It should be noted that the social mood factor that is labled "economic" in this map, besides indicating a contraction in spending, also corresponds with risk avoidance, anxiety, and wanting to stay close to family and home.  From this, it seems very likely that residents of the region surrounding the Persian Gulf will be much less sure of their near-term safety in December.

Actual events:
12/1/11: Israel: No Iran strike 'for the moment'
12/4/11: Iran reports downing U.S. drone
12/5/11: Iran warns of wider response
12/11/11: Iran refuses to return U.S. drone; warns of response to 'hostile' act
12/12/11: Iran hints at closing straits of Hormuz
12/13/11: Iran to hold military drills for closing straits of Hormuz
12/22/11: Iran's war games could force US aggression
12/23/11: Iran to start 10 day war games in int'l waters tomorrow

China unrest (as per social map):
12/14//11: China increasing security around embassy after window shot; Chinese village locked in rebellion