Panic, Violence, and Justice - Dec '11

Highlights: Persian Gulf escalation ∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ More protests ∙ Surge in gas prices near Christmas

While shoring up the economy continues to be a concern as the month begins, worries about global instability expand beyond corporate profits and credit availability in December. Pervasive anxiety accompany negative news headlines as lawmakers and leaders squabble and stubbornly oppose cooperation on needed solutions. Mid to late month the focus is on global unrest, aggression, and possible eruptions of violence. During this period, there is an elevated risk of terrorist activity. Although it is unlikely that Israel will bomb Iran this month, the Persian Gulf situation may reach crisis levels, and a surge in the price of crude oil and gasoline may make Christmas traveling especially difficult. The U.S. government could find itself with an even lower public opinion, and very near a lowered credit rating by the end of the month.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are four major periods indicated for December --

December 7 - 13  Paradigm Shift.   

December 14 - 22  Global Aggression.   
December 23 - 27  Panic and Bad News. 
December 28 - 31  Reset.

(further details available in the full version of MoodCompass)

The above is an excerpt from the December 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Persian Gulf Escalation - Dec '11 (video)

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate a high risk of geopolitical escalation in the Persian Gulf in December 2011.

Persian Gulf Escalation - December 2011

There has been much discussion of Iran lately, and concerns with a possible U.S. aided Israeli strike are high.  While our analysis of global mood and perception for the month of December indeed indicates an escalation of the Persian Gulf situation, it does NOT support the likelihood of an Israeli airstrike, at least in December.  With the primary geopolitical risk area indicated being the Persian Gulf (see map above), one possible scenario is a naval buildup or blockade within the Gulf.  Note that Israel is not indicated as a likely initiator of hostilities.  Also the global distress that would result from an outright attack on Iran is missing from the social map (below).  It should be noted that the social mood factor that is labled "economic" in this map, besides indicating a contraction in spending, also corresponds with risk avoidance, anxiety, and wanting to stay close to family and home.  From this, it seems very likely that residents of the region surrounding the Persian Gulf will be much less sure of their near-term safety in December.

Actual events:
12/1/11: Israel: No Iran strike 'for the moment'
12/4/11: Iran reports downing U.S. drone
12/5/11: Iran warns of wider response
12/11/11: Iran refuses to return U.S. drone; warns of response to 'hostile' act
12/12/11: Iran hints at closing straits of Hormuz
12/13/11: Iran to hold military drills for closing straits of Hormuz
12/22/11: Iran's war games could force US aggression
12/23/11: Iran to start 10 day war games in int'l waters tomorrow

China unrest (as per social map):
12/14//11: China increasing security around embassy after window shot; Chinese village locked in rebellion

Global Violence, Destabilization, and Disasters - March 2010

March is said to come in like a lion, yet along with the nascent Chinese Year, it makes its entrance in 2010 as a tiger-- and a ferocious one at that. The month begins with global tempers high and violence on the rise, as the mood factors indicate a period of global destabilization and violence. It is likely that concerns with civil unrest and even terrorism are at extremes. Worries about geopolitical escalation should be elevated as well.

By the second week of the month, geopolitical escalation could well become a reality. There are indications of concerns during this period with resource availability, and the price of crude oil and other commodities could rise accordingly. Hoarding is a possibility.

As the mid-month point passes, the collective mood indicates a safety-seeking preference; economic losses are likely to accelerate with steep market declines possible. Concurrently, the human perception of the natural world signifies a high risk for event(s) of which losses of life and property are probable.

As the month comes to a close, global leaders are likely to be in panic mode as they attempt to keep up with the extreme pace of unfolding events. The U.S. government also shows indications of being in a crisis mode as it tries to forge a way forward. There should be an attempt to assess losses during this final period and for markets to make their best efforts to stabilize. While valiant attempts may be made throughout the month to catch this tiger by the tail, it’s sure to be a difficult, if not dangerous venture.

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The preceding was an excerpt from the March 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

July 2009 - A War Dance

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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While most of our social mood data comes from the United States, the patterns showing up here also manifest in societies throughout the world, and often in a more extreme manner. Last November, exactly where the social configuration indicated “chaos breaks out,” the Mumbai terrorist attacks occurred. Last month, exactly where a “paradigm shift” was indicated, riots and protests in favor of a new leader were seen in Iran.

In the first half of July, is a social configuration known as the “War Dance.” Metaphorically, think of warriors putting on war paint, pounding their chests, and beating on drums. Expect to see a surge in nationalism and the mentality of “good guys” and “bad guys.” The configuration for the US government is indicative of both high activity and “posturing” with the outside world. However, this occurs after the societal “War Dance” indicating that this action is likely responsive. Also, while “forceful,” the U.S. action should be primarily diplomatic (SE over SW).

With all of this, there are no indications of any new major outbreaks of war at this time. However, watch for the “War Dance” posturing and beginnings of a response before the 14th of the month. While at this time, it is not yet possible to pinpoint where the focal point of this “War Dance” will manifest, the most likely candidates are N. Korea and Iran. This “War Dance” configuration reappears at month’s end. Should the government assure that “all is well” at that time, be wary, as this would be coincident with a “denial” configuration.

There are no indications of a likelihood of actual disruptions in the supply of crude oil. However, when people are worried, even needlessly, they can resort to hoarding. Please refer to our Public Panic Crisis Event presentation for more information on this phenomenon (it is available on our website at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt). The most likely period for a manifestation of panic in the markets or otherwise is July 23 – 28. The likely public response to rising oil and gas prices near the 13th is unclear.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Jul09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

April 2009 – Let Me Off this Crazy Ride!

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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The stock market apparently made a bottom last month, but it’s not yet time to celebrate. The cycling of moods in April look like a harsh dose of reality clashing with burgeoning optimism. It isn’t pretty. The focus this month is not primarily the stock market. Believe it or not, there are other things happening in the world and in life to pay attention to.

In general, U.S. Society throughout the month is agitated, perhaps even angry. People are tired of hearing about the economic downturn and what needs to be done about it. They are tired of their government fighting about what should and should not be done. While social unrest around the world last month was quite high, it is yet to be seen whether this fuse gets ignited into some massive demonstration or outbreak in this country.

In the marketplace this month, look for a strong resurgence in the energy markets. Expect the price for oil and gasoline to climb throughout much of the month. There is also extreme action indicated in the currency and bond markets. In a global social and economic sense, things are on the unstable side of the scale.

Of particular concern is the week of April 13th. There is the possibility of an unexpected “extreme event” on a global scale. The manifestation in the US government is turmoil and chaos. Whether this occurs in this country, somewhere else, or “everywhere,” the scale is large enough to cause at least two weeks of disruption of the government’s focus. Public opinion of the government during this period should be extremely low as well.

To summarize, I will quote a colleague who is gifted in the use of metaphor: “April this year is like a sick, twisted roller coaster ride at a creepy, run down carnival. You just want to get off the ride and go home.”

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Apr09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

December 2008 – We May Never Pass This Way Again

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

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On November 19 the global context was forecasted to shift from tension that “resolved into action” and in the US the social mood to a “chaos configuration.” This brought three days of severe stock market declines as uncertainty grew around the fate of the U.S. automakers. Following that there was an incredible, although nonsensical market rally, another expression of Mania. Global society continued to express the elevated volatility with civil unrest in Thailand closing two major airports, and terror attacks in Mumbai, India. In the U.S. the response was less dramatic, but no less fatal, as a Wal-Mart employee was trampled to death by a manic rush of shoppers, and two men shot each other as their wives argued in a Toys R Us store.

Fatigued by the seemingly endless months of negative forecasts, and with a potential view of “light at the end of the tunnel” as November drew to a close, it was mentioned in last month’s issue that December could hold a moment of relative stability. Unfortunately, this was premature. By the middle of the first week of the month, economic concerns should be accelerating once again as that “chaos configuration” makes another sweep. By the end of the second week, global tensions escalate and the U.S. government appears to go from paralysis to panic mode. While things may become a bit quiet (or stagnant) just before Christmas, on Christmas day or immediately thereafter the U.S. mood shifts to “safety seeking,” global markets decline, and there is a strong surge of interest in potential geopolitical threats. Anyone traveling for the holidays should pay close attention to the development of the global situation as well as any alerts issued by Homeland Security.

As the year comes to a close, one might look back at a year of tremendous change to this country and to the world. The levels of consumption that were taken for granted, especially in developed nations, have been sharply curtailed and continue to decline. In 2007, it was a foregone conclusion that another Great Depression couldn’t possibly happen. Today that possibility is a common topic of conversation. Whatever the outcome of the dramatic transformation we are witnessing, we can be sure that at the very least, the human world will never be the same as it was before this year began. As we said in January, this indeed was the “Year That Changes Everything.”

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http://anewstory.org/markets/December_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

July 2008 - A Wild Ride!

Here's this month's MoodCompass excerpt:

June, we said, was the gateway to at least six months of increasing global chaos and disruption. Life in the U.S. and abroad would be outside of what we have come to know as “normal” in the second half of 2008. Well, we’re here now. After looking closely at the month of July, we are sorry to say that it still looks that way.

In July we should expect a global stock market sell-off, much worse than anything we saw in the month of June. Crude should continue to stay supported, even though global economies are starting to buckle under the weight of the high prices. With all of this turbulence one would expect high volatility in the currency markets. However, oddly enough, all indications are that the U.S. Dollar is unusually stable. It is unclear whether markets are simply non-directional for the entire month or whether some new type of external controls are added to currency markets to stabilize them in very volatile times. Behind all of this global distress appears to be extreme geopolitical tensions. The economic distress this month alone (and it gets worse as the year goes on), could be enough to cause surges in the unemployment lines. We again urge people to prepare for the possibility of a public panic event in the next few months. A presentation can be downloaded at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt.

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For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.

Change is in the Air – and the Tone is Quite Somber

One of the topics in the news lately is concern over food shortages. While there is no real shortage, a public panic with hoarding behavior and outbreaks of violence can become serious. For more information on public panic and how to prepare for the possibility of this type of event, please see http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt.

The following excerpt is from the May issue of A New Story's MoodCompass:

Change is in the Air – and the Tone is Quite Somber

As there has been much talk by various analysts in the media about the worst of the credit crisis being over, one might hope that this indicates a transition to a more upbeat mood. Our analysis of the social mood factors for the coming month, however, shows the global sentiment to have an extremely serious tone. Whether the fears that drive the global situation are based on real or imaginary concerns, by the end of the month there is a likely shared conclusion—that something is going seriously wrong.

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net/.

Deepening Despair, Increasing Geopolitical Concerns: U.S. Social Mood for February

The following is an excerpt from the MoodCompass for February. It is serious, but gives a heads up to what appears to be a very serious month, socioeconomically speaking. February (especially the second half of the month) is a good time to stay close to home and loved ones.

February is a month of exceptional despair (extreme Somber) for U.S. society. The Fed may cut rates, the government may discuss economic incentives or other emergency measures to jump start the economy. However, no matter what is suggested, promised, or actually done, with the high Somber/Directing filter (extreme high West) anything said or done either sounds like it comes from a place of panic, or is responded to with panic. In addition, at any time that some glimmer of hope begins to show, some new bit of bad news that wasn't a part of the previous equation is likely to appear. Back in January, there was great concern expressed about the U.S. economy and the possibility of recession. Those fears have not gone away in February, but a whole new set of worries have arrived.

For the past few months, the rest of the world has been seen as steadily expansive, and as possibly having the ability to compensate for slowing U.S. growth. This view shifts drastically in February. While in January some U.S. analysts may have considered other economies to be "on the right track", and looked admiringly at Asia's growth, for instance, these kinds of commentaries will change to less complementary terms. From the view of U.S. society, the world in February looks suspicious, deceitful, belligerent, and manipulative (high Manic/East). The focus is no longer on how well some other countries are doing, but how dangerous some of them are, and how they cannot be trusted. The high Manic in general signals chaos and unpredictability. We do not know what "they" are going to do next. This sentiment will cause the price of crude oil to climb, even though the global economy is slowing, stock markets are plummeting, and the U.S. Dollar is rising—not a good combination for recovery.