Building Global Tension through May 19

Global mood through May 19 reflects a theme of polarization or "good guys" vs. "bad guys."  While tensions are running high, and ideologies appearing irreconcilable, there may actually be a drop in reports of mass violence incidents.  There may even be a sense of collective euphoria or irrational exuberance as if the troubles of the world may be about to be solved.

Some of this tension should be released in a wave of increased activity and violence after May 19.

Epidemic factors are still somewhat elevated, but less pressing.  There may be continued concerns with disease, health, or mortality.  The China bird flu may continue to be a background issue.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

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November 2009 - Desperate Measures

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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There is a sense of desperation to the month of November which is likely to challenge world leaders to find new and creative solutions to long standing problems. There are economic concerns that “stimulus” has not yet been able to make go away, and chronic geopolitical issues that continue to go unresolved. In the first half of the month, the primary focus is economic and currency issues. There may be one last big panic over the fate of the U.S. Dollar, after which it should continue to show new strength. As the seriousness of the economic situation begins to become clear, inflation worries will be replaced with concerns about deflation, and global markets could see a sharp, but likely brief, sell-off. The yet unresolved unemployment situation may require new and innovative responses from federal and state governments.

The focus shifts in the second half to the world arena. A polarization develops between “good guys” and “bad guys” (the identification of the good guys and bad guys would be in the eye of the beholder). There is a societal sense of righteousness and unity against an enemy or cause. While it would make sense that a specific event would cause such a response, there is no direct indication as to whether such an event is likely to occur or what it might be. Because there appears to be some relationship to this polarization with the energy markets, there is a good possibility that it involves Iran and possibly Russia.
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http://anewstory.org/markets/Nov09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

July 2009 - A War Dance

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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While most of our social mood data comes from the United States, the patterns showing up here also manifest in societies throughout the world, and often in a more extreme manner. Last November, exactly where the social configuration indicated “chaos breaks out,” the Mumbai terrorist attacks occurred. Last month, exactly where a “paradigm shift” was indicated, riots and protests in favor of a new leader were seen in Iran.

In the first half of July, is a social configuration known as the “War Dance.” Metaphorically, think of warriors putting on war paint, pounding their chests, and beating on drums. Expect to see a surge in nationalism and the mentality of “good guys” and “bad guys.” The configuration for the US government is indicative of both high activity and “posturing” with the outside world. However, this occurs after the societal “War Dance” indicating that this action is likely responsive. Also, while “forceful,” the U.S. action should be primarily diplomatic (SE over SW).

With all of this, there are no indications of any new major outbreaks of war at this time. However, watch for the “War Dance” posturing and beginnings of a response before the 14th of the month. While at this time, it is not yet possible to pinpoint where the focal point of this “War Dance” will manifest, the most likely candidates are N. Korea and Iran. This “War Dance” configuration reappears at month’s end. Should the government assure that “all is well” at that time, be wary, as this would be coincident with a “denial” configuration.

There are no indications of a likelihood of actual disruptions in the supply of crude oil. However, when people are worried, even needlessly, they can resort to hoarding. Please refer to our Public Panic Crisis Event presentation for more information on this phenomenon (it is available on our website at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt). The most likely period for a manifestation of panic in the markets or otherwise is July 23 – 28. The likely public response to rising oil and gas prices near the 13th is unclear.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Jul09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)