As the U.S. Withers, and the Dollar Dies - September 2011

It may be because this is the ten year anniversary of the September 11 attacks, and the media is reinforcing a societal remembrance of a very traumatic moment in U.S. history.  It could be due to recent events or because of some new tragedy right around the corner.  For whatever reasons, the social mood surrounding the 9/11 anniversary is depressing, the perception of the U.S. government is of an entity that is in serious trouble, and projections for the U.S. Dollar show that it could be in freefall.  Often such depressing moods on a societal level find temporary relief in expressions of violence or warfare.  With such a mood reflecting a global sentiment, will a token global “bad child” act out to divert our attention in the near future?

Highlights: Societal anger turns to gloom and despair∙ U.S. Dollar in freefall ∙ Global leaders in damage control mode ∙ In Nature: Storms, volcanoes, and earthquakes.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:

There are three major periods indicated for September--

(for more details, see the full version of MoodCompass)

September 1-6  Angry and Divided

September 7-22  [Tales of] the Demise of the U.S. (or U.S. Dollar)

September 23-30  Turning the Page

Global natural events:

September 1 - 14  Sunny, Stormy, and Active. Elevated risk of storms, floods, and volcanic eruptions mixed with what may be relatively benign weather.

September 15 - 26  Nature vs. Civilization. Watch for some disruptions to travel, communications, food production or food distribution. Elevated earthquake risk.

September 27 - 30  Hot and Active. Look for occasional storms and continued heat.

 
The above is an excerpt from the September 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

January 2011 – A New Normal for a New Year

The year begins with hope for the future, and optimism that things are finally getting back on track—economic recovery perhaps is possible. Yet, before the year is into double digit days, a major paradigm shift should be seen to be taking place. The catalyst for this shift may lie in the geopolitical picture. In a global economy, how can any single country or region expect to do well when another is in disarray? Is the U.S. debt going to remain largely irrelevant while European countries and states within the United States struggle with defaults and restructuring? With a significant escalation in the Korea situation likely (see maps below) and Asian economies sure to be directly impacted, how can the West expect to remain immune?

Given the collective mood for the month, January appears to be a month of rebalancing. Exuberance and recklessness should give way to caution and risk aversion. Gestures of cooperation on the part of world leaders and governments should give way to increasing displays of isolationism and protectionism. Attempts at political harmony could turn to outright enmity. Overbought markets should give back some of last year’s gains, and the U.S. Dollar should make quite a comeback against other currencies.

The human perception of the natural world exhibits this same theme of rebalancing in an aversion of excess energy. Some of the ways this could manifest would be below normal temperatures, heavy precipitation, and releasing of tectonic energy in the form of earthquakes.

By the end of January there may be a strong feeling that the year has begun in a wrong direction, and a collective cry may be heard, “Could we just start the New Year over?”

The above is an excerpt from the January 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Protests, Violence, and U.S. Debt - June 2010

With a high Manic social mood configuration, global unrest should be extreme this month— violent escalations are likely.

In the economic arena, China and Europe had their turns at crises last month. In June, the economic focus is N. America. Worries about excessive U.S. debt, possible sell-offs in U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Dollars, and discussions of failing U.S. states may arise as the U.S. does its version of last month's European debt crisis.

The situations in the Middle East and Korea are approaching critical levels. Successful resolution and de-escalation are urgent and crucial to global stability.

With the perception of nature reflecting chaos in Eastern N. America, more tornadoes are likely. Nature is perceived as destructive in the Far East. Because of this, a highly destructive event warning has been issued for Eastern China, Korea, and Japan for the month of June.

The above reflects highlights from the June 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

Protests, Violence, and U.S. Debt - June Videocast

Highlights: Increasing global unrest, violence; U.S. debt worries; Middle East and Korea near critical; Far East high loss natural event. A global mood "weather forecast" for June 2010.

U. S. Distress, Middle East Instability, and Volcanic Eruptions - April 2010

Class warfare, racial slurs, and political ideologies at impasse; world stock markets climbing high while so many can’t find work or make ends meet. The tension is high, so thick you can almost touch it. Something, it seems, is ready to blow. The internal situations of several nations, including the United States, Iran, and Thailand could get fairly intense this month. A parallel in the natural world, almost a metaphor for the human experience, is tectonic pressure seeking release—and a global interest in volcanoes.

The United States shows a mood configuration for April, which if it were that of an individual, would be someone experiencing high anxiety, stress, and agitation. For U.S. society, look for the conflict of ideologies that has been polarizing the nation to escalate. The degree of tension in the U.S. may be disturbing enough that international investors seek alternatives to the U.S. Dollar and U.S. markets. There may also be a natural world metaphor for the U.S., as instability shows up in a tectonic event, most likely in the Pacific Northwest.

Iran’s social mood, if it were an individual, would be someone in deep emotional turmoil. For the Iranian people, this could indicate a period where loyalties are assessed, and those found to be disloyal to those in power to be harshly punished. The manic configuration in E. Asia indicates a good possibility that the situation in Thailand could degenerate into chaos. The manifestation in China may be more economic—concerns with inflation and economic bubbles.

The primary geopolitical hotspot for April is the Middle East—notably, Iran, Israel, and Syria. N. Korea could be an issue as well. As these scenarios play themselves out over the next few months, the effects on global trade, global markets, and global stability should be monitored closely. The most likely course is one of increasing volatility.

- - -
The preceding was an excerpt from the April 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

U.S. Distress, Middle East Crisis, and Volcanic Eruptions - April 2010 Videocast

Highlights: U.S. internal conflict intensifies, Middle East escalation, turmoil in Iran; chaos in Bangkok, heightened global interest in volcanos. A global mood "weather forecast" for April 2010.

Who's Afraid of Inflation?

The theme for the coming week is "unintended consequences." The developed world has been in the midst of a manic binge of overconsumption for quite some time. Just like with an individual person, prolonged extreme mania is often followed by a severe depression (after the extreme mania of the 1920's, the depression of the 1930's naturally resulted). World governments have done their best to forestall an economic depression by continuing to pump "stimulus money," the economic equivalent of adrenaline, into the global system. To not have done so would have been catastrophic. Yet, is it possible that they just traded in one set of problems for another? How long can one keep going on stimulants without some sort of breakdown? Should we expect anything less drastic from something as complex as the current world order?

The indications for the coming week are for an extreme surge in inflation concerns. While this could be a final surge before deflation sets in for a time, the strength of it could still be quite alarming, especially to those who pay attention to such things on a daily or weekly basis. The likely manifestations to go along with this are a sharp spike back up in gold, silver, and other commodities; a decline in the U.S. Dollar; a dramatic sell-off in U.S. Treasuries; and diminished confidence in the U.S. government, and the global system as a whole.

Dec. 14 - 20: Sharp sell-off in U.S. Dollars and/or U.S. Treasuries. Inflation concerns skyrocket. Global system appears to be breaking down. Diminishing confidence in the U.S government. (MoodCompass, Dec. issue, pg. 2).

December 2009 - Spending Sprees and Hangovers

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
Since September, the global mood has been in a process of peaking optimism within a larger downturn (that is still only just beginning). It has been difficult for many to truly believe in an economic recovery, but more and more have decided to embrace it whole heartedly. While efforts to keep the global consumption machine moving have been no less than heroic, they cannot much longer forestall the inevitable. Trying to spend one’s way out of a situation that resulted from over consumption and over spending in the first place is like trying to pick oneself up by one’s own boot straps. Eventually, the result is falling on one’s face. The topping process in the markets and the recovery is nearly complete. This month is a glimpse at some of the unintended consequences that have been purchased in an attempt to continue to keep the global wheels turning at an unsustainable pace.

Beginning with the second week of December, geopolitical concerns are on the rise. Key global players such as China and the United States may be less than cooperative with each other; Russia may be at odds with Eastern Europe; and we must not forget the wild cards—Iran and N. Korea which may add renewed trouble to the global balancing act at a moment’s notice. Displays of discontent or unrest are more likely on a global scale, and incidents of violence may be seen to be up as well. In the middle of the month, there are indications that inflation concerns will rise dramatically. This should be accompanied by either a sharp sell-off in U.S. Dollars, U.S. Treasuries, or both. Concurrently, confidence in the U.S. government will diminish, and there may be worries that the global system is breaking down. Immediately surrounding the Christmas holiday there may be some relief. However, as the New Year begins, geopolitical worries and systemic risks again come to the foreground as noteworthy threats to the fragile house of cards that have been so carefully stacked in place.


- - -
http://anewstory.org/moodcompass.htm (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Spending Sprees and Hangovers - December 09 Videocast

December highlights: Increased global tension, U.S. Dollar or U.S. Treasuries sell-off, increased discontent or unrest, and possible California earthquake. A global mood "weather forecast" for December 2009.

November 2009 - Desperate Measures

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
There is a sense of desperation to the month of November which is likely to challenge world leaders to find new and creative solutions to long standing problems. There are economic concerns that “stimulus” has not yet been able to make go away, and chronic geopolitical issues that continue to go unresolved. In the first half of the month, the primary focus is economic and currency issues. There may be one last big panic over the fate of the U.S. Dollar, after which it should continue to show new strength. As the seriousness of the economic situation begins to become clear, inflation worries will be replaced with concerns about deflation, and global markets could see a sharp, but likely brief, sell-off. The yet unresolved unemployment situation may require new and innovative responses from federal and state governments.

The focus shifts in the second half to the world arena. A polarization develops between “good guys” and “bad guys” (the identification of the good guys and bad guys would be in the eye of the beholder). There is a societal sense of righteousness and unity against an enemy or cause. While it would make sense that a specific event would cause such a response, there is no direct indication as to whether such an event is likely to occur or what it might be. Because there appears to be some relationship to this polarization with the energy markets, there is a good possibility that it involves Iran and possibly Russia.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Nov09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Is the Dollar Really Dead? Don't Fall For It!

Many have been discussing the Dollar's demise. There have been panic sell-offs of Dollars in the forex market, and U.S. Treasuries are being abandoned wholesale. Yet, this is the kind of extreme in sentiment that most often occurs at a market top or bottom. It's true that the U.S. government is borrowing unprecendented amounts of money. It's true that some countries including China, the U.S.'s primary creditor, is exploring alternatives in reserve currencies. However, as much as China, Russia, Iran, and other nations might wish there were another place to turn, the global system is intricately complex, and rests on a foundation based in debt and U.S. Dollars. Things can not safely change that fast. Also, as global anxiety climbs, and people are once again forced to liquidate assets that are primarily priced in Dollars, the U.S. currency will rise in value against the "commodity" currencies.

Even if there is still one more brief, but possibly extreme panic, holders of the U.S. Dollar will once again find their currency gaining in favor. Inflation worries will be a spector of the past, and deflation will once again be the primary concern. We've been here before. This is what it looks like at a social mood top, as markets in general begin to break down once again, and as Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar are sought as "safety." The Dollar may indeed collapse at some point, and inflation may very well soar to unbelievable heights as resources become more scarce. However, for now, and perhaps for some time to come, the Dollar may find support as the Great Recession continues to play out, and the spectre of Depression once again begins to lurk in the shadows.

---

Excerpt from the October 2009 MoodCompass:

October 19 – 25: A Solution? U.S. government crisis resolved one way or another. U.S. Dollar declines sharply. Inflation concerns up sharply.

From the Week by Week Highlights of Global Mood, Perception, and Behavior on Page 2 of the October MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).