Buildup to a Crisis

A crisis appears to be just over the horizon.  It looks to involve the United States.  It could be quite serious and involve mass casualties, or it may be a market disruption with injuries of an economic nature.  I’m finding this one difficult to pin down much beyond "there's a thing here."   It may be that there is no single crisis, but that this marks the beginning of a series of crises.  I will explain the possibilities I am looking at for this initial period through December 3.  Perhaps you can figure it out.   

I track and analyze social mood daily, weekly, and even at longer time frames.  Research spanning two decades shows that internet search trend patterns can give a glimpse into near future categories of news events as well as upcoming market changes.  While the stock market may be overdue for a sharp drop, my primary concern at this moment is a crisis event (whether market related or not) that is likely to occur in the next two weeks.

The method I use begins with converting internet search trends to four primary Mood Qualities, Vulnerable, Expansive, Manic, and Controlled.  The first step in analysis is to look at their changing values relative to each other, and identify any recognizable patterns (see chart below).  This graph of squiggly lines implies that the primary outlook during Thanksgiving week is a combination of a pattern I call “Rose Colored Glasses” and another which points to denial or delusion.  Together these paint a picture of a week where people really would like to tune out negative news, and find a bright side to things if at all possible.  The following week, however, appears to be a crisis point.

Looking at the distribution of social mood geographically can give us more information about the type of crisis to watch for.  Below are global and U.S. MoodMaps for the period of November 19-26.  The WorldMood map shows the U.S. in an aggressive mood, an unstable region around Kazakhstan, and an area marked “destructive” in Northern Chile.  I have no further information about the non-U.S. regions, but they warrant keeping an eye on, as they show an elevated risk as trouble spots. 

A look at the U.S. MoodMap for this same period (below) does not give us any clue about the “aggression” seen on the global map (but hold that thought).  The green area over the East Coast, depicts the kind of mood often described as “the calm before the storm,” or sometimes as “cricket sounds.”  This goes well with the mood pattern from the spaghetti line graph we were looking at earlier, and the idea of trying to look past anything negative or “denial.”

Often the pattern earlier identified as “aggressive” on the world map will coincide with military escalation, or at least with geopolitical bluster.  Yet, without a region showing up as a target of such aggression, it’s of little imminent concern.  Turning the page, so to speak, we will look at the following week’s maps (below).

For November 27 – December 3, the U.S. is shown as destructive and/or disruptive.  The only other region identified as significant is North and South Korea and Japan which are shown as defensive and/or risk averse.  The two weeks' world maps together imply one possible scenario as the United States upping the rhetoric or action in the situation with North Korea during this period.  

Yet again, there is another picture coming from the United States MoodMap.  There is a region showing as “disruptive” centered around New York.  This particular configuration can mean several things.  1) Disruptive activity such as protests or even terrorist activity.  2) Being New York, it can indicate market disruption.  3) A disruptive natural event.  4) Last, but not least, being New York, it could also point to a final Manic market rally.

The only way I can see putting both the global and U.S. maps for this week together would be some type of market disruption that affects the U.S. and East Asia in particular.  However, there can be more than one thing happening here.

In summary, the weekly mood pattern tells us to watch for a crisis event on some level as soon as the weekend following Thanksgiving through Monday December 3.  The maps caution of one possible scenario being the United States escalating the North Korea situation, another possibility being a New York disruptive event such as mass protests, or even terrorist activity.  There could be a disruptive market event, or possibly a severe weather event.  A note of caution to those looking to short the stock market: even IF there is a disruptive market event at some point before December 3, that does not mean there won't be a large rally before or after that.

These maps as well as the mood timeline are not crystal balls, and don't tell us what necessarily will happen.  However, more often than not, they give us a glimpse of a future mood category which in turn allows us to make an educated guess at the type of event(s) which might accompany a given societal "response."

U.S. Seeking Shelter June 21-27, 2015 (video)

U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows Americans feeling nervous about events in the world and within the U.S.  A BIG week for U.S. people.



Update 6/20/15: In the areas forecasted for this week (beginning Sunday) as likely areas of Manic mood or disruptive events, on Saturday evening two gunmen in unrelated incidents shot at a group of people. One was in Michigan, the west boundary of the area we mentioned, and the other was in Pennsylvania, the east boundary of the region highlighted for this week.  While we celebrate that the method we are using is apparently working well, it was disturbing and a bit creepy to get something like this "correct" (even though a few hours outside of our time window).

Collective Mood, Global Events, and the Stock Market

I am starting a new blog just for people interested in social mood's tie-in with world events and the stock market.  That way I can discuss those things with people interested in that, and continue to redevelop this blog with a different focus. 

If you are interested, it is at http://moodcompass-world.blogspot.com

Best regards,

Dr. Cari Bourette
Director,
The MoodCompass Project

Market Downturn Confirmed (video)

Social Mood changes have confirmed that a significant downturn has begun. Indications that a global economic collapse that may be in progress are presented.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

U.S. Stock Market Health and Social Mood

There has recently been an increase in posts around the internet and in the news that the U.S. stock market may be about to plunge to a mere fraction of its current value.  At the same time, the market continues to go up, defying even the most adamant of bears.

In response to a request by a follower of this blog, we will chime in on what current U.S. social mood trends have to say about the health and well being of the stock market (apologies to those who aren't stock market fans as the language in here is geared towards market people and traders).

1).  Social mood (as measured by our assessment of daily top Google Hot Trends) peaked near November 19, 2012.  It has come down in a choppy fashion and is now at "support."  What it does from here is critical, not only for the well being of the stock market, but to the socioeconomic vitality of the United States (and likely, the world).

2).  Manifested social mood (as measured by our assessment of daily top U.S. news stories) may have peaked on January 14, 2013.  It has yet to make a "lower low."  FYI- Google Hot Trends signals have a better track record of being predictive of the stock market than U.S. news stories.

3).  The weekly projection for next week (from a 7 day EMA Google Hot Trend signal) is showing the first down week in six weeks.  While this week's projection (week of Jan. 21) was showing slightly positive, it was also indicating a trend change was near.  A new downtrend starts with one down week, however, by itself this does not indicate that the much anticipated huge decline has begun.

4)  Last, but not least, for those who follow Ellliot Wave patterns, the market has not yet risen above the 2007 high.  This would indicate that a sharp third wave down is still possible, but would have to begin momentarily (for more information on the Grand Supercycle, Elliot Waves, and what that means for the stock market as well as global society, see http://elliotwave.com).  It is also possible, that the markets will make new record highs, and then begin the first wave of the Grand Supercycle decline.  If so, that would mean less of a decline, at least initially.

For those looking for a big change in the market and the outlook of the world, this would be the year that it happens, and it is a good possibility, all things considered, that we could be days away from the beginning of that change to manifest in the markets.  However, there is no evidence that we can see at this time, that it won't be another few weeks or even months for the Great Downturn to occur.  Since social mood precedes stock market behavior, the next few days and weeks will tell us if we are about to soar to new heights or fall faster and farther than any of us in America could have ever imagined.

Hang on!

For more information on how we assess social mood and its relationship to the stock market see the "Mood and the Market" tab at http://moodcompass.com. 

Update, Dec. '12 Hawaii Crisis Alert

A confirmation signal was generated by social mood changes in Hawaii that a disaster-type event or series of events is likely in the near future.  The subjective impact to Hawaiians of this event should be greater than the Aurora, CO theater shooting or the Libya ambassador killing was experienced by most Americans.  The event(s) may be described as crisis, disaster, or upheaval.

It should be noted that there is no U.S.-wide signal reflecting a disaster, crisis or upheaval.  Therefore, unless a U.S. signal is generated in the next few days, it is expected to be perceived by Hawaiians as a much more impactful event than is perceived by the average American.

The charts below show the "temperature" or intensity of the risk factors for Hawaii and for the United States as a whole.

 



 For more information on the MoodCompass Project see: http://moodcompass.com.

Crisis Warning, Hawaii Dec. 2012

We are currently monitoring a disaster-type signal generated by changes in the social mood in Hawaii and are waiting for a secondary confirmation signal.  This would indicate a near future event or series of events that would be perceived by the people in Hawaii as a disaster, crisis, or  upheaval.  We will keep you posted, and will update with further details as we get them.

Major Event Warning

U.S. Social Mood patterns taken from Google Hot Trends and U.S. News stories indicate a spike in factors related to upheaval and instability. A major event which should have some impact to people in the United States may be imminent.  For the latest information visit http://moodcompass.com.

 

Update 7/20/12: Manifestation of this signal appears to be a shooting at a showing of a new Batman movie in Aurora, CO.  See link.

Discord, Disasters, and Depression - Nov 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Global paradigm shift, Social chaos & violence, Middle East crisis, Market volatility, High impact natural event(s). A global mood "weather forecast" for November 2010.

Tempers, Tantrums & Twisters - Oct 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Social chaos & violence, Economic impatience, Terrorism Focus, Iran, Venezuela, and N. Korea issues. A global mood "weather forecast" for October 2010.

The Precipice of Economic Collapse - July 2010

Independence Day in the United States is usually a call to celebrate unity and to be thankful for freedom from tyranny and oppression. With the collective mood continuing to deteriorate, there is no room for such positive ideation. It is more likely that this 4th of July, the theme of revolution and revolutionary war will be emphasized. Civil unrest and protests in the United States should escalate this month. Outbreaks of violence are increasingly likely. In spite of the constitutional declaration, there is no “WE THE PEOPLE” in America.

Globally, the mood should also reflect anger and fragmentation. Geopolitical tension should be quite high, while cooperation among world leaders difficult to discern. The world economy is on dangerous ground, and increased discussion of an up and coming sequel to the “Great Depression” is likely. Investor panic and high market volatility should be expected. Will the globalization paradigm continue to survive? Or, if the trend continues, will global goods, services, and destinations, at some point, become a nostalgic memory?

The above is an excerpt from the July 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

A New World Dis-Order - February 2010

In February, we begin to see a broad unraveling of the threads that hold the modern global system together. The Chinese economic bubble should finally begin to burst. In the West, social discontent runs high. International tension is extreme this month, and there are sides to be chosen. In the Middle East, look for Iran to go out of its way to display its military might to the rest of the world. The United States may be cornered into making a decision in the direction of aggressive or hostile action, as the rest of the world urges restraint. There is also a heightened interest in terror and terrorism.

To top it off, it may even feel like the natural world is against us, and what we need to maintain our way of life. Unseasonal weather may threaten agricultural outputs, or impede the continuance of business as usual. Tectonic events may encumber additional population centers besides the ones already hit last month in Haiti. It could be a difficult month to be a modern, globalized, civilized human being.

“When the next long term peak in optimism arrives, that will be the time to look for things to really begin to get bad!" (March 2009 MoodCompass, pg. 2). That peak occurred in January. This is evidenced by the ending of the stock market rally that began last March and the beginning of the next long decline—not only in the markets, but in economic, social and geopolitical stability. This is the new world dis-order, and should be for some time to come. If one has focused solely on amassing wealth in terms of dollars and property, one may be disappointed when much of their value is lost. Those who have been investing in relationships-- family and trustworthy friendships-- should find their investments substantially increasing in value over time; precious commodities that cannot be purchased at any price.
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The preceding was an excerpt from the February 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

December 2009 - Spending Sprees and Hangovers

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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Since September, the global mood has been in a process of peaking optimism within a larger downturn (that is still only just beginning). It has been difficult for many to truly believe in an economic recovery, but more and more have decided to embrace it whole heartedly. While efforts to keep the global consumption machine moving have been no less than heroic, they cannot much longer forestall the inevitable. Trying to spend one’s way out of a situation that resulted from over consumption and over spending in the first place is like trying to pick oneself up by one’s own boot straps. Eventually, the result is falling on one’s face. The topping process in the markets and the recovery is nearly complete. This month is a glimpse at some of the unintended consequences that have been purchased in an attempt to continue to keep the global wheels turning at an unsustainable pace.

Beginning with the second week of December, geopolitical concerns are on the rise. Key global players such as China and the United States may be less than cooperative with each other; Russia may be at odds with Eastern Europe; and we must not forget the wild cards—Iran and N. Korea which may add renewed trouble to the global balancing act at a moment’s notice. Displays of discontent or unrest are more likely on a global scale, and incidents of violence may be seen to be up as well. In the middle of the month, there are indications that inflation concerns will rise dramatically. This should be accompanied by either a sharp sell-off in U.S. Dollars, U.S. Treasuries, or both. Concurrently, confidence in the U.S. government will diminish, and there may be worries that the global system is breaking down. Immediately surrounding the Christmas holiday there may be some relief. However, as the New Year begins, geopolitical worries and systemic risks again come to the foreground as noteworthy threats to the fragile house of cards that have been so carefully stacked in place.


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http://anewstory.org/moodcompass.htm (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Spending Sprees and Hangovers - December 09 Videocast

December highlights: Increased global tension, U.S. Dollar or U.S. Treasuries sell-off, increased discontent or unrest, and possible California earthquake. A global mood "weather forecast" for December 2009.