A crisis appears to be just over the horizon. It looks to involve the United States. It could be quite serious and involve mass
casualties, or it may be a market
disruption with injuries of an economic nature. I’m finding this one difficult to pin down much beyond "there's a thing here." It may be that there is no single crisis, but that this marks the beginning of a series of crises. I will explain the possibilities I am looking at for this initial period through December 3. Perhaps you can figure it out.
I track and analyze social mood daily, weekly, and even at longer
time frames. Research spanning two
decades shows that internet search trend patterns can
give a glimpse into near future categories of news events as well as upcoming market
changes. While the stock market may be overdue for a
sharp drop, my primary concern at this moment is a crisis event (whether market related or not) that is likely to occur
in the next two weeks.
The method I use begins with converting internet search trends to four primary Mood
Qualities, Vulnerable, Expansive, Manic, and Controlled. The first step in analysis is to look at their changing values relative to each other, and identify any recognizable patterns (see chart below). This graph of squiggly lines implies that the
primary outlook during Thanksgiving week is a combination of a pattern I call “Rose
Colored Glasses” and another which points to denial or delusion. Together these paint a picture of a week
where people really would like to tune out negative news, and find a bright
side to things if at all possible. The
following week, however, appears to be a crisis point.
Looking at the distribution of social mood geographically can give us more information about the type of crisis to watch for. Below are global and U.S. MoodMaps for the
period of November 19-26. The WorldMood
map shows the U.S. in an aggressive mood, an unstable region around Kazakhstan,
and an area marked “destructive” in Northern Chile. I have
no further information about the non-U.S. regions, but they warrant keeping an eye on, as they show an elevated risk as trouble spots.
A look at the U.S. MoodMap for this same period (below) does not give us any clue about the “aggression” seen on the global map (but hold that thought). The green area over the East Coast, depicts the kind of mood often described as “the calm before the storm,” or sometimes as “cricket sounds.” This goes well with the mood pattern from the spaghetti line graph we were looking at earlier, and the idea of trying to look past anything negative or “denial.”
Often the pattern earlier identified as “aggressive” on the world map will coincide with military escalation, or at least with geopolitical bluster. Yet, without a region showing up as a target of such aggression, it’s of little imminent concern. Turning the page, so to speak, we will look at the following week’s maps (below).
For November 27 – December 3, the U.S. is shown as
destructive and/or disruptive. The only
other region identified as significant is North and South Korea and Japan which
are shown as defensive and/or risk averse.
The two weeks' world maps together imply one possible scenario as the United
States upping the rhetoric or action in the situation with North Korea during
this period.
Yet again, there is another picture coming from the United States MoodMap. There is a region showing as “disruptive” centered around New York. This particular configuration can mean several things. 1) Disruptive activity such as protests or even terrorist activity. 2) Being New York, it can indicate market disruption. 3) A disruptive natural event. 4) Last, but not least, being New York, it could also point to a final Manic market rally.
The only way I can see putting both the global and U.S. maps for this week together would be some type of market disruption that affects the U.S. and East Asia in particular. However, there can be more than one thing happening here.
In summary, the weekly mood pattern tells us to watch for a
crisis event on some level as soon as the weekend following Thanksgiving
through Monday December 3. The maps
caution of one possible scenario being the United States escalating the North
Korea situation, another possibility being a New York disruptive event such as
mass protests, or even terrorist activity.
There could be a disruptive market event, or possibly a severe weather
event. A note of caution to those looking to short the stock market: even IF there is a disruptive market event at some point before December 3, that does not mean there won't be a large rally before or after that.
These maps as well as the mood timeline are not crystal balls, and don't tell us what necessarily will happen. However, more often than not, they give us a glimpse of a future mood category which in turn allows us to make an educated guess at the type of event(s) which might accompany a given societal "response."
These maps as well as the mood timeline are not crystal balls, and don't tell us what necessarily will happen. However, more often than not, they give us a glimpse of a future mood category which in turn allows us to make an educated guess at the type of event(s) which might accompany a given societal "response."
