January 2011 – A New Normal for a New Year

The year begins with hope for the future, and optimism that things are finally getting back on track—economic recovery perhaps is possible. Yet, before the year is into double digit days, a major paradigm shift should be seen to be taking place. The catalyst for this shift may lie in the geopolitical picture. In a global economy, how can any single country or region expect to do well when another is in disarray? Is the U.S. debt going to remain largely irrelevant while European countries and states within the United States struggle with defaults and restructuring? With a significant escalation in the Korea situation likely (see maps below) and Asian economies sure to be directly impacted, how can the West expect to remain immune?

Given the collective mood for the month, January appears to be a month of rebalancing. Exuberance and recklessness should give way to caution and risk aversion. Gestures of cooperation on the part of world leaders and governments should give way to increasing displays of isolationism and protectionism. Attempts at political harmony could turn to outright enmity. Overbought markets should give back some of last year’s gains, and the U.S. Dollar should make quite a comeback against other currencies.

The human perception of the natural world exhibits this same theme of rebalancing in an aversion of excess energy. Some of the ways this could manifest would be below normal temperatures, heavy precipitation, and releasing of tectonic energy in the form of earthquakes.

By the end of January there may be a strong feeling that the year has begun in a wrong direction, and a collective cry may be heard, “Could we just start the New Year over?”

The above is an excerpt from the January 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

The Precipice of Economic Collapse - July 2010

Independence Day in the United States is usually a call to celebrate unity and to be thankful for freedom from tyranny and oppression. With the collective mood continuing to deteriorate, there is no room for such positive ideation. It is more likely that this 4th of July, the theme of revolution and revolutionary war will be emphasized. Civil unrest and protests in the United States should escalate this month. Outbreaks of violence are increasingly likely. In spite of the constitutional declaration, there is no “WE THE PEOPLE” in America.

Globally, the mood should also reflect anger and fragmentation. Geopolitical tension should be quite high, while cooperation among world leaders difficult to discern. The world economy is on dangerous ground, and increased discussion of an up and coming sequel to the “Great Depression” is likely. Investor panic and high market volatility should be expected. Will the globalization paradigm continue to survive? Or, if the trend continues, will global goods, services, and destinations, at some point, become a nostalgic memory?

The above is an excerpt from the July 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

Civil War Strategies - July Videocast

Highlights: U.S. divisiveness expanding with violent outbreaks likley; investor panic and more talk of "Great Depression II;" increasing global unrest, violence. A global mood "weather forecast" for July 2010.

October 2008 – Holding the Global Pieces Together

I know things have been pretty tense lately in the U.S. and in the world. Jobs are getting harder to come by and money is tighter all around. The world is changing quickly, this country is changing as well. If we can just get through the next several months of rapid and sweeping changes things should pause at least long enough for us to take a breath and look around. It will not be like it "used to be" -- ever. The important thing is to be flexible on an emotional level. As we watch pieces of our way of life that have been important to us fade away, we may grieve, but we must accept it and move on. There is a time for everything, and the time to fight for a better world or for past ideals is not now. Now is the time to keep your head low, go with the flow, and survive the changes in the tide.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

- - - -
Last month we focused on the United States and a possible market crash between September 16th and the 26th. While at the time of this publication, September 27th, the stock market indices have not reflected a crash in “points,” the month saw the demise of several “great American institutions” such as Lehman Brothers, and Washington Mutual Bank. Many individual stocks experienced declines of crash proportions. Retirement portfolios comprised of unlucky investments were destroyed.

In October, the focus quickly shifts away from the United States to the global scene. As economies around the world lick their wounds from last month, the awareness grows as to just how fragile the interconnected, globalized way of life truly is. While a spirit of unity or common goals might go far to solve the issues at hand, that is not what we find this month. Every nation and sub-group is ready to fight for their own interests. And it is in this spirit of self-assertive self interest that world leaders will try to hold the pieces of the fragile global puzzle together. We wish them luck!

In the U.S. an election draws near. Over the past couple of years occasional speculation has been made in various blogs and publications that something would occur near the election to draw attention away from domestic issues. Interestingly, the configuration for U.S. social mood is externally focused throughout the month even though the economy is in serious difficulty and an important election is about to take place. What a curious coincidence!

- - -

http://anewstory.org/markets/October_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net/.