U.S. Outlook for August 2015 (video)

Global uncertainty rises and assumptions are challenged, according to the U.S. social mood "weather forecast" for August 2015.  A serious or deadly event on the California coast is also a possibility.
 

Natural Disasters' Relationship to Social Mood: How we chart it

In a recent conversation with a university dept. head, it was expressed that the meteorology dept. was concerned about possible catastrophic tornadoes in the early spring this year in the Midwest.  We were able to tell him that while we were watching for the next big U.S. disaster in the early spring, that the risk of it being a natural disaster was low.  However, close to April 9 there would be a greater risk for a natural event.  As it turned out, those big storms that blew across the U.S. (Walda) were the most powerful on April 8-10. Yet, we told him this before Walda even had a name.  How was this possible?

 

We get social mood from Google Hot Trends.  This tells us where people are at.  We also measure the mood reflected in current events via top U.S. news stories, and its relation to social mood.  Before a disaster occurs, of any sort, there is a process that we have found always occurs.  Basically, where people are at and where the news is at reaches a maximum divergence, then a process begins that brings it all back together.  Disasters, whether natural or human caused are a primary means of things getting in sync again.  We can't talk about why without getting into metaphysical supposition. Yet, we have a method that makes this process repeatable, observable and quantifiable. 

The above chart is derived from the relationship of entropy and its opposite phimation,*  and their divergence between social mood and the news.  We quantify this in the way we categorize the social mood data that we gather. When entropy in the news  (vs. where people are at) is sufficient and then phimation surpasses it, that means a natural disaster is likely. In the  above chart, the light yellow range (45-55%) will likely not do much damage in the U.S., but may manifest in serious natural event damage elsewhere (e.g. the recent Iran earthquake).  In the middle orange range (55-70%), there will likely be some serious damage, but it won’t be seen as a national “disaster” (e.g. Walda); also it may manifest as a natural disaster outside of the U.S.. The top red range (>70%) indicates events that will be experienced as natural disasters in the U.S. are almost certain; risk for major natural disasters elsewhere would also be very high. 

This is all based on a recent breakthrough we had on the nature of disasters in late February, which has given us so much more to work with. Hope that helps to clarify our approach and the connection between disasters and social mood.  For more on this recent breakthrough, check out the presentation: Disaster: Society's Shadow.

 

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .


* Phimation as the self-organizing principle or force opposing entropy in complex systems was first used by Robert Prechter.

April 2012 Socioeconomic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Outlook (video)

Analysis of mood and perception for April 2012, and likely associated socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events.

March 2012 Socioeconomic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Outlook (video)

Analysis of social mood and perception projected for March 2012, and likely associated socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events.

Panic, Violence, and Justice - Dec '11

Highlights: Persian Gulf escalation ∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ More protests ∙ Surge in gas prices near Christmas

While shoring up the economy continues to be a concern as the month begins, worries about global instability expand beyond corporate profits and credit availability in December. Pervasive anxiety accompany negative news headlines as lawmakers and leaders squabble and stubbornly oppose cooperation on needed solutions. Mid to late month the focus is on global unrest, aggression, and possible eruptions of violence. During this period, there is an elevated risk of terrorist activity. Although it is unlikely that Israel will bomb Iran this month, the Persian Gulf situation may reach crisis levels, and a surge in the price of crude oil and gasoline may make Christmas traveling especially difficult. The U.S. government could find itself with an even lower public opinion, and very near a lowered credit rating by the end of the month.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are four major periods indicated for December --

December 7 - 13  Paradigm Shift.   

December 14 - 22  Global Aggression.   
December 23 - 27  Panic and Bad News. 
December 28 - 31  Reset.

(further details available in the full version of MoodCompass)

The above is an excerpt from the December 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Persian Gulf Escalation - Dec '11 (video)

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate a high risk of geopolitical escalation in the Persian Gulf in December 2011.

Persian Gulf Escalation - December 2011

There has been much discussion of Iran lately, and concerns with a possible U.S. aided Israeli strike are high.  While our analysis of global mood and perception for the month of December indeed indicates an escalation of the Persian Gulf situation, it does NOT support the likelihood of an Israeli airstrike, at least in December.  With the primary geopolitical risk area indicated being the Persian Gulf (see map above), one possible scenario is a naval buildup or blockade within the Gulf.  Note that Israel is not indicated as a likely initiator of hostilities.  Also the global distress that would result from an outright attack on Iran is missing from the social map (below).  It should be noted that the social mood factor that is labled "economic" in this map, besides indicating a contraction in spending, also corresponds with risk avoidance, anxiety, and wanting to stay close to family and home.  From this, it seems very likely that residents of the region surrounding the Persian Gulf will be much less sure of their near-term safety in December.

Actual events:
12/1/11: Israel: No Iran strike 'for the moment'
12/4/11: Iran reports downing U.S. drone
12/5/11: Iran warns of wider response
12/11/11: Iran refuses to return U.S. drone; warns of response to 'hostile' act
12/12/11: Iran hints at closing straits of Hormuz
12/13/11: Iran to hold military drills for closing straits of Hormuz
12/22/11: Iran's war games could force US aggression
12/23/11: Iran to start 10 day war games in int'l waters tomorrow

China unrest (as per social map):
12/14//11: China increasing security around embassy after window shot; Chinese village locked in rebellion

China and the Middle East - Erupting this month?

Protests and outrage over governmental failings and corporate greed have been on the rise.  A surprising factor to add to the mix this month may be the people of China, as analysis of global societal mood factors show "panic" and "outrage" peaking in the People's Republic in November (see map below).  This is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Also, North Africa and the Middle East are again showing up as hot beds of protests, unrest, and/or violence, in spite of Ghaddafi's reign being at an end (see map). This indicates a significant increase in social chaos from recent days. This configuration also indicates an increased risk of terrorist activity in the region.

Last, but not least, the developing events in Kosovo bear close watching.  Because Kosovo is within the region showing risks of escalation of unrest and violence, an already volatile situation may become critical.

For more information on the MoodCompass Project visit http://MoodCompass.com.

Actual Events:
11/5/11: 67 dead in northeast Nigeria attacks
11/7/11: Official Israeli websites brought down by "malfunction"
11/9/11: Beijing residents cry foul over the air
11/11/11: 13+ killed in Syria protest violence
11/12/11: Pro-Assad crowd attacks Saudi embassy in Syria
11/15/11: Syrian activists rip flag from Jordanian embassy
11/17/11: Sryia close to civil war;  Syrian army shells villages after defectors attack
11/18/11: Thousands protest in Egypt against army rule
11/19/11: Egyptian police, protesters clash in Tahrir Square ; Violence erupts in Cairo
11/21/11: New clashes in key Cairo square after bloody weekend
11/24/11: Syrian tanks bombard defectors
11/29/11: Iranian protesters storm British Embassy in Tehran

February 2011 – Animosity and Rumors of War

In January, we began to get a glimpse of a shift in global context for 2011. In the U.S., a congresswoman was shot, and in North Africa, uprisings and revolutions threatened global stability. February appears to continue in the same direction, but with added intensity, with mid-month likely to be climactic in some way. After that, the mood shifts from a focus on instability, toward more direct or ominous geopolitical threats as well as an increased focus on terror and terrorism.

Nature is perceived in February to be extremely antagonistic to the modern civilized lifestyle. Watch for blizzards and other natural events to disrupt travel and possibly cause heavy losses of life or property.

February Highlights:
Civil unrest/violence ∙ War Talk ∙ Terrorism Concerns ∙ Stock market sell-off ∙ Disruptive & destructive natural events


The above is an excerpt from the February 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Violence & War Talk - Special Alert Video Feb 2011

Global mood trends indicate an increase of violence and war rhetoric in February 2011.

Confluence of Crises - Dec Videocast

Highlights: Economic crisis, Social chaos & violence, Middle East / Korea crisis, Market volatility. A global mood "weather forecast" for December 2010.

Turmoil, Panic, and Gridlock – December 2010

The Grinch may very well steal Christmas this year. December is looking to be a month of crises: economic meltdowns and high market volatility; geopolitical situations at critical levels; widespread social turmoil and civil unrest; and governments whose leadership is sorely needed, found to be paralyzed in gridlock.

The natural world looks to be a big part of the headlines this month as well. Forecasted human perception of the natural world is full of extremes, including possibilities of increased volcanic activity in South America and major storms both in North America and Europe.

What is striking about all of this is that it shows up at all. This is a season where traditionally people want to focus on family and the holidays. However, this year, it appears that something could be unusual or shocking enough to provoke moderate panic responses on a societal level. This year, something is different. We began the year saying that in 2010 “the bill comes due, the party’s over.” The big consumption party, and the year, may be finishing up together.

The above is an excerpt from the December 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Discord, Disasters, and Depression - Nov 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Global paradigm shift, Social chaos & violence, Middle East crisis, Market volatility, High impact natural event(s). A global mood "weather forecast" for November 2010.

October 2010 – Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters

People are sick and tired of bad news and empty promises. There is talk of an economic recovery and a recession being over, but things still look as shaky and uncertain as ever. They don’t trust their governments to fix things, but no one seems to know exactly what to do. As collective mood continues to sink, governments focus on stimulating “the economy” and encouraging consumption. With governments treating symptoms, and not the larger problems much too inconvenient to publicly name and face, their interventions only forestall the inevitable. The rubber band will surely stretch as far as it can possibly go. When it does finally snap, it will not be pretty.

With frustration high, and tempers fragile, watch for increasing frustration to be expressed in rallies and protests. There will likely be heightened interest in the subject of terrorism. The geopolitical scene could be tricky, as global leaders are caught in the same sea of frustration and impatience as everyone else. Key hot spots to watch this month are Iran, Venezuela, N. Korea, and Nigeria. China is more likely than ever to make any attempted diplomatic solutions through the United Nations nearly impossible.

So how might October’s unfriendliness show up in the natural world? With a lot of energy in the system, cyclones are a high risk, even at this late date in the season. Tornadoes and typhoons may not yet be done for the year in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere is not likely to see the cyclones, but they could have their own version of storm to share in the global moment.

The above is an excerpt from the October 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Addendum-- Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters in the News:

10/1/10: The Twister of 2010

10/2/10: Violent protests after Dutch outlaw squatting

10/5/10: Bible college student shot dead in dorm room.

10/6/10: IMF warns against currency wars. 25 NATO Fuel Tankers Torched.

10/7/10: Deadly blast hits famed Sufi shrine in Pakistan.

10/8/10: Man dressed in black with jack-o'-lantern opens fire at elementary school in Carlsbad, CA.

10/9/10: 8 year-old stabbed while playing video games by stranger.

10/13/10: Continuing French Strike, Unions vs. Sarkosy may result in fuel shortages

10/15/10: Greece: Police clash with protesters at the Acropolis.

Woman in anger management class stabs classmate

10/16/10: Thousands protest in both China and Japan over disputed islands.

10/17/10: Off duty police detective killed over parking space dispute.

10/19/10: Gunman, suicide bomber attack Chechnyan parliment

5 shots fired at Pentegon, shattering windows.

10/20/10: France in turmoil as strikes continue

10/21/10: Major N. California mall set ablaze by man w/ possible bomb.

10/29/10: North, South Korea soldiers exchange gunfire at DMZ.

More shots at Marine Museum in evolving sniper case.

Shooting at Walmart by ex-employee.

Tempers, Tantrums & Twisters - Oct 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Social chaos & violence, Economic impatience, Terrorism Focus, Iran, Venezuela, and N. Korea issues. A global mood "weather forecast" for October 2010.

Global Destabilization - August 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Pervasive global destabilization, Widespread social turmoil, Elevated economic risk, Increasing geopolitical uncertainty. A global mood "weather forecast" for August 2010.

Protests, Violence, and U.S. Debt - June 2010

With a high Manic social mood configuration, global unrest should be extreme this month— violent escalations are likely.

In the economic arena, China and Europe had their turns at crises last month. In June, the economic focus is N. America. Worries about excessive U.S. debt, possible sell-offs in U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Dollars, and discussions of failing U.S. states may arise as the U.S. does its version of last month's European debt crisis.

The situations in the Middle East and Korea are approaching critical levels. Successful resolution and de-escalation are urgent and crucial to global stability.

With the perception of nature reflecting chaos in Eastern N. America, more tornadoes are likely. Nature is perceived as destructive in the Far East. Because of this, a highly destructive event warning has been issued for Eastern China, Korea, and Japan for the month of June.

The above reflects highlights from the June 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

Protests, Violence, and U.S. Debt - June Videocast

Highlights: Increasing global unrest, violence; U.S. debt worries; Middle East and Korea near critical; Far East high loss natural event. A global mood "weather forecast" for June 2010.

Fear, Hate, and Eruptions - May 2010

Tempers are high and patience is thin. Fear and uncertainty can only be held so long before they crystallize into hate. With people suspicious of their governments and each other, at some point government officials will begin to fear the people. Civil unrest should continue to increase on a global scale this month. There will be some point, perhaps this month, where governments will begin to take measures to insure against what is considered unacceptable levels of instability.

The month of May is a tipping point. The social mood configuration bears an uncanny resemblance to that seen in March 2009, except this time it represents a major change in trend to the downside. Whether it represents a major downturn for several months or for several years is yet to be seen. However, odds are that it is the latter. With the social mood continuing to sour internally, and the geopolitical situation becoming increasingly unstable, hopes for a sustained economic recovery could begin to look doubtful.

In addition to the high potential for social eruptions, it is likely that the natural world parallels, volcanoes and earthquakes, are in the news again in May. The highest likelihood for tectonic events is in the Americas; but the Iran/Iraq area is also a candidate. A highly destructive event of some type is likely for Far East Asia (i.e. E. China, Japan, and Korea) and/or Papua New Guinea.

As we watch the ramifications of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill unfold, we will be faced with visible evidence of civilization’s destructive impacts on the life potential of the Earth. Is it too far a leap to consider that humanity is not immune to the downturn in Earth’s productivity? Will we continue to look for props, patches and loopholes, or do we have the capacity to pause and consider a course correction while such choices still remain? If humanity and the rest of nature indeed have a shared tipping point, such choices would need to be made rather quickly, if at all.

- - -
The preceding was an excerpt from the May 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Fear, Hate, and Poverty: The New Global Pandemics - May 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Growing global unrest, economic "recovery" in jeopardy, Middle East and Korea risks increase, more volcanoes and earthquakes. A global mood "weather forecast" for May 2010.