North Korea Explodes: WorldMood 30 July – 13 August, 2017

The North Korea situation is going to get worse before it gets better.  That is what our latest WorldMood map is implying.  Our previous map, which covered July 17-31, 2017 indicated a “volatile” North Korea.  On July 28, there was news of a new missile launch.  There may be a different response this time from what has been the status quo.  The latest map (below) paints the entire East Asia region red.



For the next week or two, a region which includes North and South Korea, Japan, and China is likely to be in the news quite a bit.  While it’s possible that there could be several different volatile circumstances developing in China, Japan, and Korea, the simplest way to view this from current information would be that the instability of the North Korea situation is likely to expand and become quite heated in the near term.  Other areas that stand out from a “background normal” in the coming two weeks are Somalia aggressiveness and a destructive theme in West Africa.

What is the source of this information?  From research that spans two decades, we take internet search trend data and translate that to near future social mood.  This is analyzed geographically to produce a MoodMap. 

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Update July 18. 2017
Item #2: Russia Threatens Retaliatory Measures over Seized U.S. Mansions

Update July 28, 2017
Russia "asserts their position" with a sanctions retaliation. N. Korea "returns to the headlines" escalating that situation with a missile launch.   The WorldMood map for the next two weeks (will post soon) implies an extremely volatile situation in the region of North and South Korea, Japan and China.  My guess is that this thing gets more intense over the next few days.

Update July 30, 2017
Last day of this map Russia cuts size of U.S. diplomatic mission.

U.S. Outlook for August 2015 (video)

Global uncertainty rises and assumptions are challenged, according to the U.S. social mood "weather forecast" for August 2015.  A serious or deadly event on the California coast is also a possibility.
 

U.S. Outlook for June 2015 (from Social Mood data)

June is a turning point for the United States internally and internationally.  The chart below is the overall flow of social mood as projected for June 2015. :

(click to enlarge)

Note to our followers: The addition of geographic analysis to our toolkit allows us greater precision than ever before in next-month future forecasting.  Follow along with the news-flo this month and see how well we did translating social mood data into future headlines.

Week 1 (through June 6): Mild and ongoing economic concerns are present, but a major U.S. economic event is unlikely.  Most of the stimulus for economic issues likely come from outside the U.S. (Greece?).

Week 2 (through June 13): There may be residual economic concerns from any events of the first week of June, but they should dissipate during this period. Any stimulus for new economic concerns should primarily come from outside the U.S.  Watch for a significant development in U.S. – China relations near June 11. 

Week 3 (through June 20): There is a moderate risk of civil unrest or disruptive event(s) during this period (see map below).  The region at highest risk is the Eastern States, but there is an elevated risk throughout the country.  Manic mood may also show up financially as rising indicators of inflation.

(click map to enlarge)

 

Week 4 (through June 27): The outlook of Americans should begin to take a more serious tone this week.  The region North of Texas has the highest projection of this mood factor during this period (see map below, left).  However, this central location may also be indicative of a national shift.  A new wave of economic concerns and domestic issues are starting to take hold in the U.S. There is a moderate risk of civil unrest or disruptive event(s) during this period, possibly expanding or continuing from last week (see map below, right).  The region at highest risk is near Michigan and Ohio, but an elevated risk remains throughout the country.  Manic mood may also show up financially as rising indicators of inflation.

(click maps to enlarge)

Week 5 (through July 4): The outlook of Americans should become much more serious in tone this week, expanding from last week (see map below, left).  The "heartland" of America has the highest projection of this mood factor during this period. Economic concerns and domestic issues are growing and are likely a strong focus of politicians in Washington D.C. and traders on Wall Street as this mood factor is elevated in both D.C. and New York City (see map below, right).  These issues are not necessarily limited to those areas.

(click maps to enlarge)
 

U.S. China relations for June 2015 (based on projected Social Mood data)

Continuing our cutting edge work in near-future event forecasting, we present a narrative for the upcoming month's U.S. - China relations. Changing views by the world of the United States and China follow patterns that are projected forward one month.  The data is analyzed and coded into archetypal categories.  This forms the basis for the narrative.  Follow the news flow this month and we'll see how close we got to calling the pattern on this one!

Summary: Near June 11, watch for a significant new development in U.S. - China relations.  The U.S. has the intention of keeping China "in line."  However, China may strategically play this to come out ahead.  Near June 18, China takes a more aggressive stance or tone.
 

(click on maps below to enlarge)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

April 2012 Socioeconomic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Outlook (video)

Analysis of mood and perception for April 2012, and likely associated socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events.

China and the Middle East - Erupting this month?

Protests and outrage over governmental failings and corporate greed have been on the rise.  A surprising factor to add to the mix this month may be the people of China, as analysis of global societal mood factors show "panic" and "outrage" peaking in the People's Republic in November (see map below).  This is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Also, North Africa and the Middle East are again showing up as hot beds of protests, unrest, and/or violence, in spite of Ghaddafi's reign being at an end (see map). This indicates a significant increase in social chaos from recent days. This configuration also indicates an increased risk of terrorist activity in the region.

Last, but not least, the developing events in Kosovo bear close watching.  Because Kosovo is within the region showing risks of escalation of unrest and violence, an already volatile situation may become critical.

For more information on the MoodCompass Project visit http://MoodCompass.com.

Actual Events:
11/5/11: 67 dead in northeast Nigeria attacks
11/7/11: Official Israeli websites brought down by "malfunction"
11/9/11: Beijing residents cry foul over the air
11/11/11: 13+ killed in Syria protest violence
11/12/11: Pro-Assad crowd attacks Saudi embassy in Syria
11/15/11: Syrian activists rip flag from Jordanian embassy
11/17/11: Sryia close to civil war;  Syrian army shells villages after defectors attack
11/18/11: Thousands protest in Egypt against army rule
11/19/11: Egyptian police, protesters clash in Tahrir Square ; Violence erupts in Cairo
11/21/11: New clashes in key Cairo square after bloody weekend
11/24/11: Syrian tanks bombard defectors
11/29/11: Iranian protesters storm British Embassy in Tehran

Quake, Volcano, and Storm Alert - Sept 2011 (video)

Analysis of human perception of nature projected for September 2011

E. Asia War Risk - Sept - Oct 2011 (video)

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate an increased risk of military escalation in Asia.

The U.S. Strikes Back - June 2011

Highlights: Global system under duress ∙ People feeling unsafe and risk averse ∙ U.S. government doles out death and justice ∙ Earthquake watch, Southern California ∙ Storm and flood watch, E. North America

Special Alert: U.S. strikes hard at an enemy. Is it N. Korea?

Natural events: June 9-14 and June 28 – July 3 are the greatest risk periods for natural events with moderate to high losses. Of particular interest is Southern California, for which a moderate earthquake watch is issued. Also, the Eastern half of N. America looks like a candidate for more storms and flooding in June.


The above is an excerpt from the June 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

MoodCompass is now available to the general public. You can view the current issue at http://moodcompass.com/.

May 2011 - The Edge of the Cliff

Highlights: New level of global violence/warfare ∙ Increased patriotism/nationalism and willingness to fight for beliefs ∙ U.S. government decreased capacity to make rational choices ∙ Special Alert: Violence and instability in Korea and/or China

The above is an excerpt from the May 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Starting this month, MoodCompass is available to the general public. You can view the current issue at http://moodcompass.com/.

Terrorism, War & Asia - May 2011 Alert (video)

Analysis of collective mood factors indicate acceleration of global violence mid to late May. Most likely scenarios are Korean military escalation or E. Asia terrorist attack. Technical presentation illustrates.

Significant Weather Events - Mar 2011 Video

Highlights: Destructive event East Asia. Severe storms N. America. Volcano alert Hawaii. MoodCompass weather forecast for March 2011.

Significant Weather Events - Feb 2011 Videocast

Highlights: Destructive Event warnings for Hawaii, S. California, and Far East Asia, Heavy snow in N.E. United States, & N. Europe. MoodCompass weather forecast for February 2011.

Violence & War Talk - Special Alert Video Feb 2011

Global mood trends indicate an increase of violence and war rhetoric in February 2011.

October 2010 – Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters

People are sick and tired of bad news and empty promises. There is talk of an economic recovery and a recession being over, but things still look as shaky and uncertain as ever. They don’t trust their governments to fix things, but no one seems to know exactly what to do. As collective mood continues to sink, governments focus on stimulating “the economy” and encouraging consumption. With governments treating symptoms, and not the larger problems much too inconvenient to publicly name and face, their interventions only forestall the inevitable. The rubber band will surely stretch as far as it can possibly go. When it does finally snap, it will not be pretty.

With frustration high, and tempers fragile, watch for increasing frustration to be expressed in rallies and protests. There will likely be heightened interest in the subject of terrorism. The geopolitical scene could be tricky, as global leaders are caught in the same sea of frustration and impatience as everyone else. Key hot spots to watch this month are Iran, Venezuela, N. Korea, and Nigeria. China is more likely than ever to make any attempted diplomatic solutions through the United Nations nearly impossible.

So how might October’s unfriendliness show up in the natural world? With a lot of energy in the system, cyclones are a high risk, even at this late date in the season. Tornadoes and typhoons may not yet be done for the year in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere is not likely to see the cyclones, but they could have their own version of storm to share in the global moment.

The above is an excerpt from the October 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

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Addendum-- Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters in the News:

10/1/10: The Twister of 2010

10/2/10: Violent protests after Dutch outlaw squatting

10/5/10: Bible college student shot dead in dorm room.

10/6/10: IMF warns against currency wars. 25 NATO Fuel Tankers Torched.

10/7/10: Deadly blast hits famed Sufi shrine in Pakistan.

10/8/10: Man dressed in black with jack-o'-lantern opens fire at elementary school in Carlsbad, CA.

10/9/10: 8 year-old stabbed while playing video games by stranger.

10/13/10: Continuing French Strike, Unions vs. Sarkosy may result in fuel shortages

10/15/10: Greece: Police clash with protesters at the Acropolis.

Woman in anger management class stabs classmate

10/16/10: Thousands protest in both China and Japan over disputed islands.

10/17/10: Off duty police detective killed over parking space dispute.

10/19/10: Gunman, suicide bomber attack Chechnyan parliment

5 shots fired at Pentegon, shattering windows.

10/20/10: France in turmoil as strikes continue

10/21/10: Major N. California mall set ablaze by man w/ possible bomb.

10/29/10: North, South Korea soldiers exchange gunfire at DMZ.

More shots at Marine Museum in evolving sniper case.

Shooting at Walmart by ex-employee.

Tempers, Tantrums & Twisters - Oct 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Social chaos & violence, Economic impatience, Terrorism Focus, Iran, Venezuela, and N. Korea issues. A global mood "weather forecast" for October 2010.

Global Destabilization - August 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Pervasive global destabilization, Widespread social turmoil, Elevated economic risk, Increasing geopolitical uncertainty. A global mood "weather forecast" for August 2010.

Civil War Strategies - July Videocast

Highlights: U.S. divisiveness expanding with violent outbreaks likley; investor panic and more talk of "Great Depression II;" increasing global unrest, violence. A global mood "weather forecast" for July 2010.

A New World Dis-Order - February 2010

In February, we begin to see a broad unraveling of the threads that hold the modern global system together. The Chinese economic bubble should finally begin to burst. In the West, social discontent runs high. International tension is extreme this month, and there are sides to be chosen. In the Middle East, look for Iran to go out of its way to display its military might to the rest of the world. The United States may be cornered into making a decision in the direction of aggressive or hostile action, as the rest of the world urges restraint. There is also a heightened interest in terror and terrorism.

To top it off, it may even feel like the natural world is against us, and what we need to maintain our way of life. Unseasonal weather may threaten agricultural outputs, or impede the continuance of business as usual. Tectonic events may encumber additional population centers besides the ones already hit last month in Haiti. It could be a difficult month to be a modern, globalized, civilized human being.

“When the next long term peak in optimism arrives, that will be the time to look for things to really begin to get bad!" (March 2009 MoodCompass, pg. 2). That peak occurred in January. This is evidenced by the ending of the stock market rally that began last March and the beginning of the next long decline—not only in the markets, but in economic, social and geopolitical stability. This is the new world dis-order, and should be for some time to come. If one has focused solely on amassing wealth in terms of dollars and property, one may be disappointed when much of their value is lost. Those who have been investing in relationships-- family and trustworthy friendships-- should find their investments substantially increasing in value over time; precious commodities that cannot be purchased at any price.
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The preceding was an excerpt from the February 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

China Bubbles, Western Discord, and the Iran Agenda - February 2010 Videocast

Highlights for February: China economic bubble bursts, increased civil unrest, Iranian military escalation, heightened interest in terrorism. A global mood "weather forecast" for February 2010.