Confused & Surprised: Global Mood thru Feb 21, '13

Social mood through February 21 reflects uncertainty, confusion, and the unexpected. People are contrarian and argumentative, making group efforts challenging.

U.S. Disaster Alert:  Social mood changes indicate that an event perceived as a crisis, upheaval, or disaster is likely to occur Feb. 11-21 in or directly affecting the United States of America.

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents are likely to increase in frequency and in scale.

Epidemic factors are showing a slight increase. While a peak in the flu outbreak has likely already occurred, this could be an especially bad week.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated. 

Significant Natural Events: Risks for significant natural events are elevated. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and wildfires.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Examples of this social mood configuration in the news:
2/10-14: Carnival Triumph- "The cruise from hell"
2/15: Meteorite hits Russia with force of atomic bomb, about 1100 injured
2/19: 4 dead, including suspect, in Orange County shooting spree.
         Gas explosion ignites restaurant in Kansas City; dozens injured
2/20-21: Wall Street drops on growth concerns, fear index jumps
2/21: Shooting, fiery crash on Las Vegas strip leaves 3 dead

E. Asia War Risk - Sept - Oct 2011 (video)

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate an increased risk of military escalation in Asia.

Destruction, Denial, and Despair - July 2011

Highlights: Global situation continues to deteriorate; global leaders in denial ∙ People grow tired of bad news ∙ U.S. government chaos ∙ Earthquake watch, Southern California

Special Alert: Serious Flooding and Cyclones, North America

Natural events:
June 29 – July 6 Risk of high loss natural event; earthquake risk, Southern California.
July 7 – 11 Possible natural event seen as serious, deadly, and/or related to disease.
July 19 – 27 Elevated risk of serious flooding and cyclones, N. America.

The above is an excerpt from the July 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

July is like June on Steroids

Look for this month's blog post (and MoodCompass excerpt) this weekend. In the meantime, think of July 2010 like June 2010 on steroids.

China Bubbles, Western Discord, and the Iran Agenda - February 2010 Videocast

Highlights for February: China economic bubble bursts, increased civil unrest, Iranian military escalation, heightened interest in terrorism. A global mood "weather forecast" for February 2010.

Global Collapse in Progress - Jan '10 Videocast

Highlights for January: Global economic implosion, Chaos in Iran, Indian/Pacific Ocean region tectonic event(s). A global mood "weather forecast" for January 2010

On The Brink - November 09 Videocast

The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for November 2009. US centered economic chaos, Military display(s) of force, Hawaii event, and more swine flu are the highlights.

October 2009 – Chaos, Mayhem, and Armageddon

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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October is seasonal for mischief, pranks, and random destructive acts. However, this year, the world may experience a much larger scale version of this phenomenon. Whether over fears of unknown change associated with health care reform, outrage at complacency with Iran, or economic problems yet to be solved, the United States could experience a level of civil unrest that it has not seen for many years. An even more extreme form of civil chaos could appear in Iran this month. There may be other outbreaks of this type of behavior throughout the world. Most especially pay attention to Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Thailand, Western China, and Russia.

Strains on the global economy and infrastructure should continue in October. The budgets of states and local economies may be stretched to dangerous levels. The U.S. government will likely be working overtime keeping things together, and one of those all weekend crisis session is not out of the question.

And let’s not forget Iran. It would not be unlikely during the month for discussion and conjecture to arise regarding the direction of the Iran regime, the U.S. position on sanctions or military action, and potential Israeli actions. Such topics as Armageddon may even become part of ordinary conversation in the most intense periods of suspense.

The month ends with a very violent social mood configuration. It is not clear how this may manifest, but it does indicate that November could be even more interesting than October.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Please Remain Calm - Sept 09 Videocast

The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for September 2009. Global Economic Crisis, Geopolitical Tension Increase, and Disease Concerns in Asia are the highlights.

April 2009 – Let Me Off this Crazy Ride!

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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The stock market apparently made a bottom last month, but it’s not yet time to celebrate. The cycling of moods in April look like a harsh dose of reality clashing with burgeoning optimism. It isn’t pretty. The focus this month is not primarily the stock market. Believe it or not, there are other things happening in the world and in life to pay attention to.

In general, U.S. Society throughout the month is agitated, perhaps even angry. People are tired of hearing about the economic downturn and what needs to be done about it. They are tired of their government fighting about what should and should not be done. While social unrest around the world last month was quite high, it is yet to be seen whether this fuse gets ignited into some massive demonstration or outbreak in this country.

In the marketplace this month, look for a strong resurgence in the energy markets. Expect the price for oil and gasoline to climb throughout much of the month. There is also extreme action indicated in the currency and bond markets. In a global social and economic sense, things are on the unstable side of the scale.

Of particular concern is the week of April 13th. There is the possibility of an unexpected “extreme event” on a global scale. The manifestation in the US government is turmoil and chaos. Whether this occurs in this country, somewhere else, or “everywhere,” the scale is large enough to cause at least two weeks of disruption of the government’s focus. Public opinion of the government during this period should be extremely low as well.

To summarize, I will quote a colleague who is gifted in the use of metaphor: “April this year is like a sick, twisted roller coaster ride at a creepy, run down carnival. You just want to get off the ride and go home.”

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http://anewstory.org/markets/Apr09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

December 2008 – We May Never Pass This Way Again

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

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On November 19 the global context was forecasted to shift from tension that “resolved into action” and in the US the social mood to a “chaos configuration.” This brought three days of severe stock market declines as uncertainty grew around the fate of the U.S. automakers. Following that there was an incredible, although nonsensical market rally, another expression of Mania. Global society continued to express the elevated volatility with civil unrest in Thailand closing two major airports, and terror attacks in Mumbai, India. In the U.S. the response was less dramatic, but no less fatal, as a Wal-Mart employee was trampled to death by a manic rush of shoppers, and two men shot each other as their wives argued in a Toys R Us store.

Fatigued by the seemingly endless months of negative forecasts, and with a potential view of “light at the end of the tunnel” as November drew to a close, it was mentioned in last month’s issue that December could hold a moment of relative stability. Unfortunately, this was premature. By the middle of the first week of the month, economic concerns should be accelerating once again as that “chaos configuration” makes another sweep. By the end of the second week, global tensions escalate and the U.S. government appears to go from paralysis to panic mode. While things may become a bit quiet (or stagnant) just before Christmas, on Christmas day or immediately thereafter the U.S. mood shifts to “safety seeking,” global markets decline, and there is a strong surge of interest in potential geopolitical threats. Anyone traveling for the holidays should pay close attention to the development of the global situation as well as any alerts issued by Homeland Security.

As the year comes to a close, one might look back at a year of tremendous change to this country and to the world. The levels of consumption that were taken for granted, especially in developed nations, have been sharply curtailed and continue to decline. In 2007, it was a foregone conclusion that another Great Depression couldn’t possibly happen. Today that possibility is a common topic of conversation. Whatever the outcome of the dramatic transformation we are witnessing, we can be sure that at the very least, the human world will never be the same as it was before this year began. As we said in January, this indeed was the “Year That Changes Everything.”

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http://anewstory.org/markets/December_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)