U.S.: Backlash to Change June 28- July 4, 2015 (video)

Backlash to the many recent changes in U.S. culture should start to be seen in the week ahead. .  U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows Americans less "nice" and more "rowdy."

 

Unexpected Explosions of Violence

Violent explosion!  I read those words a few days ago in conjunction with the unexpected eruption of a volcano in Chile.  It made me wonder what was about to happen next.  Unlike many, I do not believe this is an isolated incident, nor is it “random.”  It is part of an overall pattern in play right now (MoodCompass Type: SSE).  This is Nature’s expression of it for the moment.  This same pattern in the human world can look like sudden geopolitical escalation, violent protests, or even terrorist activity.  In the markets it often goes with sudden spikes in the price of oil and gasoline.  There was a violent explosion with an unexpected twist in the news today -- two hostages were inadvertently killed in a drone strike, albeit last January.


Expect the unexpected in world news over the next week or two.  Expect surprising explosive events or violence with an unexpected twist.  Personally, I recommend you do what you can to keep your world calm and centered.  Things will likely get worked out one way or another on the global scene so that “business as usual” may prevail.  There is quite an investment in the status quo, and for now, keeping it in tact is strong motivation for world leaders.  So, whatever volcanoes, skirmishes, or other unexpected explosions appear over the next week or two, do your best to stay cool!

Mass Violence Risk Way Up thru May 13

Social mood shows a global risk of mass violence through May 13.  People are frustrated, angry, and ready to take whatever action they deem necessary.  Protests are on the upswing, and any could easily turn violent with the current mood configuration. 

Collective mood is beginning to transition from the "lone wolf" motif toward more organized violent activities.  This would include government initiated violence.

Epidemic factors are also on the increase.  This is associated with concerns of disease, health, and/or mortality.  This could reflect a separate focus or be a concurrent theme along with expressed violence (e.g. poison, biologicals, etc.)


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Update:
5/5/13: Thousands of Islamist Protesters violently demand anti-blasphemy laws
5/12/13: 19 people shot at New Orleans Mother's Day parade

Next U.S. Disaster Window: April 2-11

The next major U.S. disaster is likely about a week away.  Over the last few weeks, we have been discussing a next in the series of increasing scale U.S. tragedies (i.e. Aurora, CO., Libya Ambassador, Hurricane Sandy, and Sandy Hook).  Our measuring stick is a quantification of the relationship between U.S. social mood as found in Google Hot Trends and the context society finds itself in and is creating (U.S. news).  Latest information puts the event occurring April 2-11, with the most likely timeframe as April 4-9. 

This next tragedy has been in phase 3 of 3 of its creation since March 17.  There was a preliminary wave in mid-March, which manifested in unusual and sad stories, but with no sign of the "pressure release" that would allow us to consider phase 3 as completed.

To summarize the latest information:

1) MoodCompass Type is E SE.  This goes with violent protests, mayhem, terrorist activity, and unusual or surprising events.  It is more likely to be initiated by a lone disturbed individual or fringe group than a geopolitical entity (government).  Natural disasters associated with this configuration are earthquakes and violent storms (including cyclones or high winds).  The currently developing U.S. event shows a low probability of being a natural disaster.

2) The event might or might not originate from outside of the U.S.  If the event originates in the United States, the most likely region for it to occur is West/Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the Northeastern U.S.

3) As the events in the series are of increasing subjective impact, there may or may not be more casualties than the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, but it should have a larger emotional impact for most people in the U.S.


During this period there is a very high risk globally, for the types of events listed in 1) above.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .





 

Big Risk of Small Problems: Global Mood thru Feb 26

Social mood through February 26 reflects uncertainty, confusion, and the unexpected. People are contrarian and argumentative, making group efforts challenging.  Bad news seems to be on the rise, but is it really that bad?

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents are likely to continue to make headlines, however any fatalities should be relatively low in number*.

Epidemic factors are again decreasing. The flu should be less of a concern this period.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated. However, chances for major disasters are low.

Significant Natural Events: Risks for significant natural events are elevated, but no major disasters with high casualty count are expected*. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and fires.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of potential impact to U.S. society. Events of equivalent impact without fatalities are also possible (e.g. economic loss). Also, since U.S. social mood changes are the measure, if event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.

Confused & Surprised: Global Mood thru Feb 21, '13

Social mood through February 21 reflects uncertainty, confusion, and the unexpected. People are contrarian and argumentative, making group efforts challenging.

U.S. Disaster Alert:  Social mood changes indicate that an event perceived as a crisis, upheaval, or disaster is likely to occur Feb. 11-21 in or directly affecting the United States of America.

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents are likely to increase in frequency and in scale.

Epidemic factors are showing a slight increase. While a peak in the flu outbreak has likely already occurred, this could be an especially bad week.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated. 

Significant Natural Events: Risks for significant natural events are elevated. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and wildfires.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Examples of this social mood configuration in the news:
2/10-14: Carnival Triumph- "The cruise from hell"
2/15: Meteorite hits Russia with force of atomic bomb, about 1100 injured
2/19: 4 dead, including suspect, in Orange County shooting spree.
         Gas explosion ignites restaurant in Kansas City; dozens injured
2/20-21: Wall Street drops on growth concerns, fear index jumps
2/21: Shooting, fiery crash on Las Vegas strip leaves 3 dead

Unrests, protests, but no disasters

Social Mood patterns indicate a drop in factors related to disaster, crisis and upheaval. Indicators of unrest and violent protests are still elevated.  So, globally, there may be some instances of unrest or protests through October 11, 2012.  However, widespread unrest or violence is unlikely.  Also, the likelihood of any major disaster is low. Enjoy the moment!

 

For more information see moodcompass.com.



 

Violence Alert - May 19, 2012 (video)

Social mood patterns indicate elevated risk of violent protests, outbreaks, and/or terrorist activity in the immediate future.

China and the Middle East - Erupting this month?

Protests and outrage over governmental failings and corporate greed have been on the rise.  A surprising factor to add to the mix this month may be the people of China, as analysis of global societal mood factors show "panic" and "outrage" peaking in the People's Republic in November (see map below).  This is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Also, North Africa and the Middle East are again showing up as hot beds of protests, unrest, and/or violence, in spite of Ghaddafi's reign being at an end (see map). This indicates a significant increase in social chaos from recent days. This configuration also indicates an increased risk of terrorist activity in the region.

Last, but not least, the developing events in Kosovo bear close watching.  Because Kosovo is within the region showing risks of escalation of unrest and violence, an already volatile situation may become critical.

For more information on the MoodCompass Project visit http://MoodCompass.com.

Actual Events:
11/5/11: 67 dead in northeast Nigeria attacks
11/7/11: Official Israeli websites brought down by "malfunction"
11/9/11: Beijing residents cry foul over the air
11/11/11: 13+ killed in Syria protest violence
11/12/11: Pro-Assad crowd attacks Saudi embassy in Syria
11/15/11: Syrian activists rip flag from Jordanian embassy
11/17/11: Sryia close to civil war;  Syrian army shells villages after defectors attack
11/18/11: Thousands protest in Egypt against army rule
11/19/11: Egyptian police, protesters clash in Tahrir Square ; Violence erupts in Cairo
11/21/11: New clashes in key Cairo square after bloody weekend
11/24/11: Syrian tanks bombard defectors
11/29/11: Iranian protesters storm British Embassy in Tehran

Teetering on the Edge (Again) - Nov 2011

Highlights:  High risk of U.S. Government budget impasse ∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ Extreme societal tension and polarization ∙ In Nature: Heavy rain and snow near the holidays.

      November looks like a busy month for world leaders, as they continue to try to manufacture growth where little can be found.  There is a high risk of a U.S. budget impasse that does not get resolved in time.  The U.S. government perception cycles show high activity (battles) through November 17 (the deadline), shifting to dialogue and negotiations through the 22nd.  The timing would suggest an agreement not reached in time, causing increased societal distress and further distrust of the government as the holidays approach.

      There is a heightened global risk for terrorist activity mid-month, along with increased protests, and possible increase in "random acts" of violence.  In the natural world, an increased chance of heavy rain and snow near the holidays should make travel interesting.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are three major periods indicated for November --

November 1 - 8   Into Action.     
November 9 - 17   Turbulence. 
November 18 -30   It's the Economy, Stupid. 
(further details available in the full version of MoodCompass) 

Global natural events:

November   4 - 16  Active, In Motion.  Nature is in the news.  Elevated risk of unusual or increased tectonic activity.

November 16 - 28   Wet, Stormy.  Increased risk of heavy rain and snow.


The above is an excerpt from the November 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

A Glitch in the Global Matrix

One can see the European crisis and market turmoil coming to a peak October 3rd and 4th reflected in this excerpt below from the October issue of MoodCompass.  October 4th brought in the period in which the social mood reflected a sense of "new life," as forecasted.  In the short time horizon of market traders and politicians, this was reflected in global stock market rallies, and political negotiations that showed hope of possibly moving past deadlock. 

So what of the current phase entitled "A Glitch?"  The G20 is in negotiations this weekend.  Are they going to break down or be otherwise ineffective as this "chapter" unfolds?  Do global protests begin to appear out of control or become violent in some way?  Something the larger society considers "crazy," "surprising," "contrary," and possibly violent is the likely manifestation of the current configuration.  If possible, staying close to home and staying informed of the latest events may be a prudent course of action.

From the October MoodCompass:

October 1 - 3  An Ending.  Risk aversion is high.  Focus on global economy and stability.  Geopolitical issues.    

October 4 - 12  A New Start.  Global leaders focused on calming things down and restabilizing the global system.  U.S.. government searches for common ground between various groups in dialogue and negotiations. 

October 13 - 18 A Glitch..  Discussions and negotiations may break down.  There's an increased risk of protests, terrorist activity, and "random acts' of violence.

Confluence of Crises - Dec Videocast

Highlights: Economic crisis, Social chaos & violence, Middle East / Korea crisis, Market volatility. A global mood "weather forecast" for December 2010.

October 2010 – Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters

People are sick and tired of bad news and empty promises. There is talk of an economic recovery and a recession being over, but things still look as shaky and uncertain as ever. They don’t trust their governments to fix things, but no one seems to know exactly what to do. As collective mood continues to sink, governments focus on stimulating “the economy” and encouraging consumption. With governments treating symptoms, and not the larger problems much too inconvenient to publicly name and face, their interventions only forestall the inevitable. The rubber band will surely stretch as far as it can possibly go. When it does finally snap, it will not be pretty.

With frustration high, and tempers fragile, watch for increasing frustration to be expressed in rallies and protests. There will likely be heightened interest in the subject of terrorism. The geopolitical scene could be tricky, as global leaders are caught in the same sea of frustration and impatience as everyone else. Key hot spots to watch this month are Iran, Venezuela, N. Korea, and Nigeria. China is more likely than ever to make any attempted diplomatic solutions through the United Nations nearly impossible.

So how might October’s unfriendliness show up in the natural world? With a lot of energy in the system, cyclones are a high risk, even at this late date in the season. Tornadoes and typhoons may not yet be done for the year in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere is not likely to see the cyclones, but they could have their own version of storm to share in the global moment.

The above is an excerpt from the October 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

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Addendum-- Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters in the News:

10/1/10: The Twister of 2010

10/2/10: Violent protests after Dutch outlaw squatting

10/5/10: Bible college student shot dead in dorm room.

10/6/10: IMF warns against currency wars. 25 NATO Fuel Tankers Torched.

10/7/10: Deadly blast hits famed Sufi shrine in Pakistan.

10/8/10: Man dressed in black with jack-o'-lantern opens fire at elementary school in Carlsbad, CA.

10/9/10: 8 year-old stabbed while playing video games by stranger.

10/13/10: Continuing French Strike, Unions vs. Sarkosy may result in fuel shortages

10/15/10: Greece: Police clash with protesters at the Acropolis.

Woman in anger management class stabs classmate

10/16/10: Thousands protest in both China and Japan over disputed islands.

10/17/10: Off duty police detective killed over parking space dispute.

10/19/10: Gunman, suicide bomber attack Chechnyan parliment

5 shots fired at Pentegon, shattering windows.

10/20/10: France in turmoil as strikes continue

10/21/10: Major N. California mall set ablaze by man w/ possible bomb.

10/29/10: North, South Korea soldiers exchange gunfire at DMZ.

More shots at Marine Museum in evolving sniper case.

Shooting at Walmart by ex-employee.

U.S Chaos and Global Volcanoes - September 2010 Vidocast

Highlights: U.S. chaos and violence, N. Korea crisis, high natural disaster risk. A global mood "weather forecast" for September 2010.