Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
The stock market apparently made a bottom last month, but it’s not yet time to celebrate. The cycling of moods in April look like a harsh dose of reality clashing with burgeoning optimism. It isn’t pretty. The focus this month is not primarily the stock market. Believe it or not, there are other things happening in the world and in life to pay attention to.
In general, U.S. Society throughout the month is agitated, perhaps even angry. People are tired of hearing about the economic downturn and what needs to be done about it. They are tired of their government fighting about what should and should not be done. While social unrest around the world last month was quite high, it is yet to be seen whether this fuse gets ignited into some massive demonstration or outbreak in this country.
In the marketplace this month, look for a strong resurgence in the energy markets. Expect the price for oil and gasoline to climb throughout much of the month. There is also extreme action indicated in the currency and bond markets. In a global social and economic sense, things are on the unstable side of the scale.
Of particular concern is the week of April 13th. There is the possibility of an unexpected “extreme event” on a global scale. The manifestation in the US government is turmoil and chaos. Whether this occurs in this country, somewhere else, or “everywhere,” the scale is large enough to cause at least two weeks of disruption of the government’s focus. Public opinion of the government during this period should be extremely low as well.
To summarize, I will quote a colleague who is gifted in the use of metaphor: “April this year is like a sick, twisted roller coaster ride at a creepy, run down carnival. You just want to get off the ride and go home.”
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Apr09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Monday, March 30, 2009
Saturday, February 28, 2009
March 2009 – Disgruntled, Discontented, and Directionless
Global Risk of Social Unrest: EXTREME!
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
March 2009 – Disgruntled, Discontented, and Directionless
The background theme throughout the month is an aimless, anxious, agitation. People, in general, are worried about the future; increasing numbers are concerned with survival needs in the present. To make matters worse, no one is quite sure how to respond to all that is going on.
Global stock markets are near a low and the negativity in social mood is nearing a peak. At such long term cycle peaks, the risk of civil unrest reaches an extremely high probability of occurring; the risk of misunderstandings between governments also rises.
There are numerous opinions about how governments should be dealing with the economic turmoil. While there is little consensus on exactly what should be done, there is much agreement, globally, that whatever is being done, by whoever is in charge, is the wrong thing, and that whatever they are doing is either not enough or is going to make matters worse. In the US, differences between political parties over the past month have been extreme. This month, divisiveness reaches a whole new level, and it would not be surprising to see some type of a demand for action, an insistence that the debate come to a conclusion so that plans can be crystallized and implemented. “Enough talk already! What are you going to DO about it?”
All of this painful agitation and searching for direction should likewise be a theme in the marketplace throughout the month. This is not the end of the economic downturn, but it is near the end of increased disintegration for now. When the next long term peak in optimism arrives, that will be the time to look for things to really begin to get bad!
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Mar09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Just a Few More Stock Market Crashes to Go!
This month there is some good news and some bad news. First, the good news: there is only a month or two left of really bad stock market crashes. Next, the bad news: the same as the good news.
President Obama has been saying it's going to get worse before it gets better. The next two months should look pretty bad for the global economy. More people will lose jobs, more banks will be on the edge of failing, etc. However, just when it looks like there will never be an end to all of the bad news, in just a few months from now, things will start to stabilize. It won't be the end of the economic downturn, that is still a few years away (according to the cycles we follow). However, it will mean a reprieve for a bit, perhaps six months, or even more. An upturn in the collective mood would be rather refreshing. I sure would love a surge of good news for a change.
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
February 2009 – Can’t We All Just Get Along?
Last month was rather interesting. There were so many puzzle pieces that looked so bad at a time that seemed like everyone should be celebrating – the drop in optimism and associated stock market downturn, U.S. Treasuries being sold off even though the stock market was declining, and an increase in anti-U.S. sentiment after a new, fairly popular president was supposed to take office. We were right on with the pieces of the puzzle. There was an actual 5% drop in the stock market on Inauguration Day itself. China, Pakistan, and the Arab world as a whole were less than pleased with the United States the very week the new president took office. However, as a whole, things were more or less “normal.” We must admit that we too were caught up in the expectations that a new president would mean that at least the mood should get better for a moment, and were concerned about what seemed to be a discrepancy. The new president is for the most part doing exactly what he said he would do, what the majority of Americans elected him for, yet the U.S. (and global) collective mood continues to sour.
In February, there are more reminders that things continue to be all too normal. Mid-month the stock market begins to crash (again!). The U.S. government is perceived to be disorganized, incompetent, and fragmented. With this configuration, it is likely that internal fighting and self-interest will impede agreements on any proposed solutions to the economic crisis (which should appear to be getting completely out of control). Whether or not they can get it together next month, we’ll have to see. Regardless, don’t look for any improvements in the economic outlook before spring! This next couple of months of stock market losses might be considered a grand finale of the “show” we have been watching since late 2007. During this period there is a heightened risk of social instability throughout the world, meaning a higher than normal likelihood of demonstrations, riots, and geopolitical escalation.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Feb09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
President Obama has been saying it's going to get worse before it gets better. The next two months should look pretty bad for the global economy. More people will lose jobs, more banks will be on the edge of failing, etc. However, just when it looks like there will never be an end to all of the bad news, in just a few months from now, things will start to stabilize. It won't be the end of the economic downturn, that is still a few years away (according to the cycles we follow). However, it will mean a reprieve for a bit, perhaps six months, or even more. An upturn in the collective mood would be rather refreshing. I sure would love a surge of good news for a change.
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
February 2009 – Can’t We All Just Get Along?
Last month was rather interesting. There were so many puzzle pieces that looked so bad at a time that seemed like everyone should be celebrating – the drop in optimism and associated stock market downturn, U.S. Treasuries being sold off even though the stock market was declining, and an increase in anti-U.S. sentiment after a new, fairly popular president was supposed to take office. We were right on with the pieces of the puzzle. There was an actual 5% drop in the stock market on Inauguration Day itself. China, Pakistan, and the Arab world as a whole were less than pleased with the United States the very week the new president took office. However, as a whole, things were more or less “normal.” We must admit that we too were caught up in the expectations that a new president would mean that at least the mood should get better for a moment, and were concerned about what seemed to be a discrepancy. The new president is for the most part doing exactly what he said he would do, what the majority of Americans elected him for, yet the U.S. (and global) collective mood continues to sour.
In February, there are more reminders that things continue to be all too normal. Mid-month the stock market begins to crash (again!). The U.S. government is perceived to be disorganized, incompetent, and fragmented. With this configuration, it is likely that internal fighting and self-interest will impede agreements on any proposed solutions to the economic crisis (which should appear to be getting completely out of control). Whether or not they can get it together next month, we’ll have to see. Regardless, don’t look for any improvements in the economic outlook before spring! This next couple of months of stock market losses might be considered a grand finale of the “show” we have been watching since late 2007. During this period there is a heightened risk of social instability throughout the world, meaning a higher than normal likelihood of demonstrations, riots, and geopolitical escalation.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Feb09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
January Addendum - We Have a New President!
Obama is now the 44th president of the U.S. I am very pleased and relieved that it all went so smoothly and beautifully. So, our worries were unfounded! It's interesting that in our work with the MoodCompass we accurately picked up on a large collapse in optimism near the end of the week of the 5th. We also picked up on the change to "panic mode" as Innauguration Day passed. These mood shifts were accompanied by appropriate downturns in the stock market (e.g. today, Innauguration Day, the market was down 5%). As it turns out, the associations with the mood shifts and the upcoming presidential transition were purely circumstantial (thankfully). I will be waiting to see what the forecasted increase in geopolitical interest is all about in the next few days.
The problems that we all have to deal with haven't changed. However, we now have a very gifted leader who will do whatever can and must be done to address the mess that was left for him to clean up. The big question is, will people give whatever is tried a chance to work? Do people, in general, have the patience to wait several years before many of the big problems even begin to get better? I don't envy his position.
The problems that we all have to deal with haven't changed. However, we now have a very gifted leader who will do whatever can and must be done to address the mess that was left for him to clean up. The big question is, will people give whatever is tried a chance to work? Do people, in general, have the patience to wait several years before many of the big problems even begin to get better? I don't envy his position.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
January 2009 – A Year Begins; an Era Ends
*** Potentially disturbing material ***
This month I must begin with a warning that some may find the contents of this post disturbing, especially if you are an Obama fan like me. If you do continue to read, I have suggested a few practical steps to help you prepare yourself for what may possibly be a turbulent moment.
*******************************************
The indications for January are that there is a possibility that something might interfere with Obama taking office as scheduled. There is more information about the reasoning behind this in the MoodCompass excerpt below. While we can all hope that everything goes as planned, and the transition takes place in a smooth fashion, there are some steps you can take to emotionally prepare yourself should a worst case scenario occur.
1) Sit quietly with a paper and pen handy. Close your eyes, and imagine a worst case scenario. Notice your feelings, your thoughts, and your concerns. Remind yourself, as needed, that this is not happening now, and ground yourself. If needed, open your eyes to remind yourself that all is well.
2) Think of those people you would want to connect with should such a thing occur. Who would you want to support you? Who would you expect to need you to support them?
3) Consider who you are today to be wiser and calmer than a you in the middle of a crisis. Let this Wise Self write a note to the you that exists in mid January. Let this Self say to you any words of wisdom that may help you at the time. Write the names of those you would be calling, whether for your own support or for them. Afterwards, ensure the phone numbers for your list is available and add them next to the names.
4) Continuing to dwell on negative possibilities is not helpful to anyone. After completing the exercise, let it all go. Put the paper away in a safe place. Perhaps you will not need it afterall. Continue to live each day to the fullest, and enjoy each moment of your now.
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
2008 was a difficult year. Many have been expressing relief at the coming of a new year with new possibilities, and hopefully a new direction. If January is any indication of what the coming year will be like, well, let’s just say this has been the most difficult issue we have ever put together.
Each month we recalibrate the cycles for the collective moods and perspectives that we study and put the charts together for the following month. Following that, the cycles are interpreted in the context of current events and anticipated near future events. As much as possible, all of the resulting social mood and market information is integrated into a likely scenario— a hypothesized “big picture.” This month, there is a known event, the inauguration of President Obama. However, the social mood and market outlook does not match what would be expected at a time of hope and celebration. The most likely scenario, as best as all the dots can be connected at this time, appears to be a worst case scenario.
The week of January 5th appears to be one of incredible optimism in the face of very negative current conditions. This could be a good case of Obama mania at its best. However, near the end of that week, or beginning of the following week this optimism abruptly collapses... Then, as Inauguration Day passes, US Society enters “panic mode” and anti-US sentiment around the world increases. Connecting those dots, what conclusions would you draw?
One way or another January marks the end and beginning of an era. It should mark the end of the Bush presidency and the beginning of a new one. Another possibility is that it does not. This would mark a new era as well. Let us all just hope that we got this one very wrong this time.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jan09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
This month I must begin with a warning that some may find the contents of this post disturbing, especially if you are an Obama fan like me. If you do continue to read, I have suggested a few practical steps to help you prepare yourself for what may possibly be a turbulent moment.
*******************************************
The indications for January are that there is a possibility that something might interfere with Obama taking office as scheduled. There is more information about the reasoning behind this in the MoodCompass excerpt below. While we can all hope that everything goes as planned, and the transition takes place in a smooth fashion, there are some steps you can take to emotionally prepare yourself should a worst case scenario occur.
1) Sit quietly with a paper and pen handy. Close your eyes, and imagine a worst case scenario. Notice your feelings, your thoughts, and your concerns. Remind yourself, as needed, that this is not happening now, and ground yourself. If needed, open your eyes to remind yourself that all is well.
2) Think of those people you would want to connect with should such a thing occur. Who would you want to support you? Who would you expect to need you to support them?
3) Consider who you are today to be wiser and calmer than a you in the middle of a crisis. Let this Wise Self write a note to the you that exists in mid January. Let this Self say to you any words of wisdom that may help you at the time. Write the names of those you would be calling, whether for your own support or for them. Afterwards, ensure the phone numbers for your list is available and add them next to the names.
4) Continuing to dwell on negative possibilities is not helpful to anyone. After completing the exercise, let it all go. Put the paper away in a safe place. Perhaps you will not need it afterall. Continue to live each day to the fullest, and enjoy each moment of your now.
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
2008 was a difficult year. Many have been expressing relief at the coming of a new year with new possibilities, and hopefully a new direction. If January is any indication of what the coming year will be like, well, let’s just say this has been the most difficult issue we have ever put together.
Each month we recalibrate the cycles for the collective moods and perspectives that we study and put the charts together for the following month. Following that, the cycles are interpreted in the context of current events and anticipated near future events. As much as possible, all of the resulting social mood and market information is integrated into a likely scenario— a hypothesized “big picture.” This month, there is a known event, the inauguration of President Obama. However, the social mood and market outlook does not match what would be expected at a time of hope and celebration. The most likely scenario, as best as all the dots can be connected at this time, appears to be a worst case scenario.
The week of January 5th appears to be one of incredible optimism in the face of very negative current conditions. This could be a good case of Obama mania at its best. However, near the end of that week, or beginning of the following week this optimism abruptly collapses... Then, as Inauguration Day passes, US Society enters “panic mode” and anti-US sentiment around the world increases. Connecting those dots, what conclusions would you draw?
One way or another January marks the end and beginning of an era. It should mark the end of the Bush presidency and the beginning of a new one. Another possibility is that it does not. This would mark a new era as well. Let us all just hope that we got this one very wrong this time.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jan09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Sunday, November 30, 2008
December 2008 – We May Never Pass This Way Again
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
On November 19 the global context was forecasted to shift from tension that “resolved into action” and in the US the social mood to a “chaos configuration.” This brought three days of severe stock market declines as uncertainty grew around the fate of the U.S. automakers. Following that there was an incredible, although nonsensical market rally, another expression of Mania. Global society continued to express the elevated volatility with civil unrest in Thailand closing two major airports, and terror attacks in Mumbai, India. In the U.S. the response was less dramatic, but no less fatal, as a Wal-Mart employee was trampled to death by a manic rush of shoppers, and two men shot each other as their wives argued in a Toys R Us store.
Fatigued by the seemingly endless months of negative forecasts, and with a potential view of “light at the end of the tunnel” as November drew to a close, it was mentioned in last month’s issue that December could hold a moment of relative stability. Unfortunately, this was premature. By the middle of the first week of the month, economic concerns should be accelerating once again as that “chaos configuration” makes another sweep. By the end of the second week, global tensions escalate and the U.S. government appears to go from paralysis to panic mode. While things may become a bit quiet (or stagnant) just before Christmas, on Christmas day or immediately thereafter the U.S. mood shifts to “safety seeking,” global markets decline, and there is a strong surge of interest in potential geopolitical threats. Anyone traveling for the holidays should pay close attention to the development of the global situation as well as any alerts issued by Homeland Security.
As the year comes to a close, one might look back at a year of tremendous change to this country and to the world. The levels of consumption that were taken for granted, especially in developed nations, have been sharply curtailed and continue to decline. In 2007, it was a foregone conclusion that another Great Depression couldn’t possibly happen. Today that possibility is a common topic of conversation. Whatever the outcome of the dramatic transformation we are witnessing, we can be sure that at the very least, the human world will never be the same as it was before this year began. As we said in January, this indeed was the “Year That Changes Everything.”
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/December_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Saturday, November 1, 2008
November 2008 – Post Election Chaos
My introductory comments last month were a bit premature. They belong better with this month. I sometimes think about everything so much that I get ahead of myself.
This month could get quite disturbing for those of us living in the United States. The purpose of this month's MoodCompass excerpt could be considered an emotional preparation. In these difficult times I sometimes take comfort in knowing that large changes are coming ahead of time. That way when they do come, I can say, "Oh, it's that" instead of being completely surprised. Watching the patterns of mood cycles as I do, it helps me see order in the universe in spite of appearances to the contrary. While not always pleasant or preferred, things are unfolding "as they should." When things get crazy economically, politcally, or socially, sometimes the best we can do is try to surround ourselves with supportive people and remind ourselves of what is most important. This may be one of those months. Keep a cool head and stay centered. Stay connected with supportive others.
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
---
Last month, as was indicated, the fragility of the global economy was of high concern and world leaders actively attended to keeping the system running. While one of our “big picture” indicators showed an extremely low probability of geopolitical escalation (October issue, page 11), there was a strong indication of “external focus” by U.S. society. We did see large anti-U.S. demonstrations in Iraq and attacks by U.S. troops across the border in Syria and Pakistan. However, these did not grab America’s attention. Interestingly, a similar mood configuration for U.S. society appeared near the two political conventions last spring. Apparently, the usual signals for an external or international focus (the “warrior” configuration), also show up when polarized factions “battle” for an election within a country, even when peaceful and democratic.
In November, the focus returns to the United States as the world closely watches our presidential election hoping for a better future for all. Whatever the outcome of the election, there is a most curious shift that occurs in all of our charts immediately afterwards that builds to an extreme the following week. Perhaps there is a “snag” in the election results, or perhaps the election goes fine and there are new economic issues to deal with which return to the foreground once the honeymoon period of having elected a new president is over with. Without a context, such extremes are difficult to interpret.
After the election, the U.S. social mood shifts to what could be either anger or excitement (or both). The following week this turns to high anxiety, and the week of the 17th to an extreme Manic configuration which would indicate chaos and confusion. The U.S. government’s configuration is one with extreme preoccupation with keeping order the entire month beginning immediately after the election and peaking near the 14th. Be watching the news for a build up of tension and anxiety in this country and for more information on the specific context as to how this will be expressed. Pay particular attention near the 19th of the month when the tension resolves itself into the chaos configuration for U.S. society. Unfortunately, this is one of those situations that is so out of the ordinary that it is impossible to be more specific. Staying informed is your best bet.
As for the markets, look for serious declines in the stock market beginning within days after the election. There should be strong gains in crude oil and gasoline prices through the 14th as the Dollar declines sharply. Following that, deflation is back in the foreground with losses across the board in both stocks and commodities. The bright side is that December may bring a moment of relative stability.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/November_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
This month could get quite disturbing for those of us living in the United States. The purpose of this month's MoodCompass excerpt could be considered an emotional preparation. In these difficult times I sometimes take comfort in knowing that large changes are coming ahead of time. That way when they do come, I can say, "Oh, it's that" instead of being completely surprised. Watching the patterns of mood cycles as I do, it helps me see order in the universe in spite of appearances to the contrary. While not always pleasant or preferred, things are unfolding "as they should." When things get crazy economically, politcally, or socially, sometimes the best we can do is try to surround ourselves with supportive people and remind ourselves of what is most important. This may be one of those months. Keep a cool head and stay centered. Stay connected with supportive others.
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
---
Last month, as was indicated, the fragility of the global economy was of high concern and world leaders actively attended to keeping the system running. While one of our “big picture” indicators showed an extremely low probability of geopolitical escalation (October issue, page 11), there was a strong indication of “external focus” by U.S. society. We did see large anti-U.S. demonstrations in Iraq and attacks by U.S. troops across the border in Syria and Pakistan. However, these did not grab America’s attention. Interestingly, a similar mood configuration for U.S. society appeared near the two political conventions last spring. Apparently, the usual signals for an external or international focus (the “warrior” configuration), also show up when polarized factions “battle” for an election within a country, even when peaceful and democratic.
In November, the focus returns to the United States as the world closely watches our presidential election hoping for a better future for all. Whatever the outcome of the election, there is a most curious shift that occurs in all of our charts immediately afterwards that builds to an extreme the following week. Perhaps there is a “snag” in the election results, or perhaps the election goes fine and there are new economic issues to deal with which return to the foreground once the honeymoon period of having elected a new president is over with. Without a context, such extremes are difficult to interpret.
After the election, the U.S. social mood shifts to what could be either anger or excitement (or both). The following week this turns to high anxiety, and the week of the 17th to an extreme Manic configuration which would indicate chaos and confusion. The U.S. government’s configuration is one with extreme preoccupation with keeping order the entire month beginning immediately after the election and peaking near the 14th. Be watching the news for a build up of tension and anxiety in this country and for more information on the specific context as to how this will be expressed. Pay particular attention near the 19th of the month when the tension resolves itself into the chaos configuration for U.S. society. Unfortunately, this is one of those situations that is so out of the ordinary that it is impossible to be more specific. Staying informed is your best bet.
As for the markets, look for serious declines in the stock market beginning within days after the election. There should be strong gains in crude oil and gasoline prices through the 14th as the Dollar declines sharply. Following that, deflation is back in the foreground with losses across the board in both stocks and commodities. The bright side is that December may bring a moment of relative stability.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/November_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
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