December 2008 – We May Never Pass This Way Again

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

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On November 19 the global context was forecasted to shift from tension that “resolved into action” and in the US the social mood to a “chaos configuration.” This brought three days of severe stock market declines as uncertainty grew around the fate of the U.S. automakers. Following that there was an incredible, although nonsensical market rally, another expression of Mania. Global society continued to express the elevated volatility with civil unrest in Thailand closing two major airports, and terror attacks in Mumbai, India. In the U.S. the response was less dramatic, but no less fatal, as a Wal-Mart employee was trampled to death by a manic rush of shoppers, and two men shot each other as their wives argued in a Toys R Us store.

Fatigued by the seemingly endless months of negative forecasts, and with a potential view of “light at the end of the tunnel” as November drew to a close, it was mentioned in last month’s issue that December could hold a moment of relative stability. Unfortunately, this was premature. By the middle of the first week of the month, economic concerns should be accelerating once again as that “chaos configuration” makes another sweep. By the end of the second week, global tensions escalate and the U.S. government appears to go from paralysis to panic mode. While things may become a bit quiet (or stagnant) just before Christmas, on Christmas day or immediately thereafter the U.S. mood shifts to “safety seeking,” global markets decline, and there is a strong surge of interest in potential geopolitical threats. Anyone traveling for the holidays should pay close attention to the development of the global situation as well as any alerts issued by Homeland Security.

As the year comes to a close, one might look back at a year of tremendous change to this country and to the world. The levels of consumption that were taken for granted, especially in developed nations, have been sharply curtailed and continue to decline. In 2007, it was a foregone conclusion that another Great Depression couldn’t possibly happen. Today that possibility is a common topic of conversation. Whatever the outcome of the dramatic transformation we are witnessing, we can be sure that at the very least, the human world will never be the same as it was before this year began. As we said in January, this indeed was the “Year That Changes Everything.”

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http://anewstory.org/markets/December_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

November 2008 – Post Election Chaos

My introductory comments last month were a bit premature. They belong better with this month. I sometimes think about everything so much that I get ahead of myself.

This month could get quite disturbing for those of us living in the United States. The purpose of this month's MoodCompass excerpt could be considered an emotional preparation. In these difficult times I sometimes take comfort in knowing that large changes are coming ahead of time. That way when they do come, I can say, "Oh, it's that" instead of being completely surprised. Watching the patterns of mood cycles as I do, it helps me see order in the universe in spite of appearances to the contrary. While not always pleasant or preferred, things are unfolding "as they should." When things get crazy economically, politcally, or socially, sometimes the best we can do is try to surround ourselves with supportive people and remind ourselves of what is most important. This may be one of those months. Keep a cool head and stay centered. Stay connected with supportive others.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

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Last month, as was indicated, the fragility of the global economy was of high concern and world leaders actively attended to keeping the system running. While one of our “big picture” indicators showed an extremely low probability of geopolitical escalation (October issue, page 11), there was a strong indication of “external focus” by U.S. society. We did see large anti-U.S. demonstrations in Iraq and attacks by U.S. troops across the border in Syria and Pakistan. However, these did not grab America’s attention. Interestingly, a similar mood configuration for U.S. society appeared near the two political conventions last spring. Apparently, the usual signals for an external or international focus (the “warrior” configuration), also show up when polarized factions “battle” for an election within a country, even when peaceful and democratic.

In November, the focus returns to the United States as the world closely watches our presidential election hoping for a better future for all. Whatever the outcome of the election, there is a most curious shift that occurs in all of our charts immediately afterwards that builds to an extreme the following week. Perhaps there is a “snag” in the election results, or perhaps the election goes fine and there are new economic issues to deal with which return to the foreground once the honeymoon period of having elected a new president is over with. Without a context, such extremes are difficult to interpret.

After the election, the U.S. social mood shifts to what could be either anger or excitement (or both). The following week this turns to high anxiety, and the week of the 17th to an extreme Manic configuration which would indicate chaos and confusion. The U.S. government’s configuration is one with extreme preoccupation with keeping order the entire month beginning immediately after the election and peaking near the 14th. Be watching the news for a build up of tension and anxiety in this country and for more information on the specific context as to how this will be expressed. Pay particular attention near the 19th of the month when the tension resolves itself into the chaos configuration for U.S. society. Unfortunately, this is one of those situations that is so out of the ordinary that it is impossible to be more specific. Staying informed is your best bet.

As for the markets, look for serious declines in the stock market beginning within days after the election. There should be strong gains in crude oil and gasoline prices through the 14th as the Dollar declines sharply. Following that, deflation is back in the foreground with losses across the board in both stocks and commodities. The bright side is that December may bring a moment of relative stability.

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http://anewstory.org/markets/November_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

October 2008 – Holding the Global Pieces Together

I know things have been pretty tense lately in the U.S. and in the world. Jobs are getting harder to come by and money is tighter all around. The world is changing quickly, this country is changing as well. If we can just get through the next several months of rapid and sweeping changes things should pause at least long enough for us to take a breath and look around. It will not be like it "used to be" -- ever. The important thing is to be flexible on an emotional level. As we watch pieces of our way of life that have been important to us fade away, we may grieve, but we must accept it and move on. There is a time for everything, and the time to fight for a better world or for past ideals is not now. Now is the time to keep your head low, go with the flow, and survive the changes in the tide.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

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Last month we focused on the United States and a possible market crash between September 16th and the 26th. While at the time of this publication, September 27th, the stock market indices have not reflected a crash in “points,” the month saw the demise of several “great American institutions” such as Lehman Brothers, and Washington Mutual Bank. Many individual stocks experienced declines of crash proportions. Retirement portfolios comprised of unlucky investments were destroyed.

In October, the focus quickly shifts away from the United States to the global scene. As economies around the world lick their wounds from last month, the awareness grows as to just how fragile the interconnected, globalized way of life truly is. While a spirit of unity or common goals might go far to solve the issues at hand, that is not what we find this month. Every nation and sub-group is ready to fight for their own interests. And it is in this spirit of self-assertive self interest that world leaders will try to hold the pieces of the fragile global puzzle together. We wish them luck!

In the U.S. an election draws near. Over the past couple of years occasional speculation has been made in various blogs and publications that something would occur near the election to draw attention away from domestic issues. Interestingly, the configuration for U.S. social mood is externally focused throughout the month even though the economy is in serious difficulty and an important election is about to take place. What a curious coincidence!

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http://anewstory.org/markets/October_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net/.

September – The Great Market Crash of 2008

As I wrote this month's MoodCompass intro, I could only wonder when I might get to write about some good news. It just seems to keep getting worse... Here's the excerpt from the September issue:

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How do we say this… Let’s see… THIS LOOKS REALLY BAD!!! Last month we discussed an event or series of events centered around August 8-11 that could change the geopolitical and/or global economic landscape. The Russia/Georgia conflict certainly qualifies. This month, the globalization experiment continues to be severely challenged as cooperation between nations and even within nations continues to deteriorate. The global economy, already damaged, is likely to be severely crippled by the time this month is over.

However, our primary concern this month is not “the world.” It is one country in particular… the United States of America. For the last few weeks, optimism has been on the rise. There have been calls of bottoms in the stock market, beginning with the zany Jim Cramer of CNBC. Analysts have begun suggesting that it is time to buy stocks again. As of Friday (the 22nd), the stock market is up for the month of August. In a bear market, fading pessimism is not a good sign. It is a clear sign that the next leg down is about to start, and this next one looks particularly severe.

There may be increasing signs that the American consumer is not doing well, or that businesses are in trouble. Anxiety among stock market traders may begin to increase as the stock market does not sell off like “it should” in the face of the seriousness of the global and national indicators. Eventually, the rubber band will snap. This next one should be unlike any stock market decline in recent memory.

It is the aftermath of this, how it changes the face of America that is of primary concern. How will all of our lives be affected as the investments, the life savings of so many are wiped out? How do retired persons or those about to retire who did the “right thing” now face that they have nothing of substance to live on? How do businesses large enough to be publicly owned companies continue to retain workers when their capitalization has been practically erased? What is the effect of such extreme socioeconomic changes just before a presidential election?

This is not good news. There is no apparent silver lining. We have taken on the task of warning of approaching storms. It is time to hunker down. This one will be a doozie.

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http://anewstory.org/moodcompass/Sep08_MoodCompass.pdf
(current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For more information on MoodCompass, check out MoodCompass.com.

The Next Banks to Fail

I just received this list from Weiss Research and would like to pass it on. This is their list of major banks most likely to fail. They consider a "C" rating to be a "yellow light" and a "D" rating to be an indication that you may seriously want to consider moving your money somewhere else. They also say to be on the alert for the "C" rated banks to be downgraded to "D".

Depression Era Clothing Gives a Heads Up

There is more and more talk about the Great Depression, and still more denial that its 21st century version is fast approaching. The fashion trends for the fall are expressing what our collective unconscious "knows." The quote below from the New York Post heralds this new trend. Expect fashions to get much more plain and depression-era like in the next few years, as this year's is a "lighter" version of the 1930's fashions.

"The duds say it all-- and it's depressing. Taking a cue from the grim economy, this fall's fashions at Banana Republic, Gap and H&M are featuring a distinctly Depression-era trend of cloche hats, pencil skirts, conductor caps and baggy, vintage-style dresses. One of the most popular styles appears to hark back to the impish newsboy getup of the 1930s baggy trousers, caps, pinstriped vests, oxford lace-up shoes and utilitarian handbags."
-- The New York Post, July 28, 2008

August 2008 – A New Global Reality

August looks extremely interesting. I found it unusually puzzling to put the MoodCompass together for next month. Something big was clearly showing up, but I couldn't figure out exactly what it could be. It must be something outside of the current context, thus the title - A New Global Reality.

Here's this month's MoodCompass excerpt:

This month, something fundamental about our world changes. It may be the way global society conducts business, or perhaps a major revision to the geopolitical situation. Although the extreme scale is clear from the observed and projected social mood cycles, it is difficult to be more specific. While this focal period is only a couple of weeks away, it occurs in a context that is not yet apparent. It takes place in a different reality than the current one; the only one available to interpret the social mood configurations of the coming month.

Near August 8-11 is a global scale “safety seeking” configuration. It resembles the configuration in U.S. social mood at the time of the buyout of the investment bank Bear Sterns in March and the expressed intended bailout of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (institutions integral to the U.S. mortgage system) in July. However, what we are concerned with in August is more extreme in scale, and global in scope.

At this same time in U.S. society, we find the “survival focused” configuration. A mini version of this occurred near the end of June. This configuration is marked by a heightened aggressiveness in asserting survival interests or instinctual needs, and a lowered importance or general disregard for the factors necessary to maintain the “economic machine” our society depends on. If prolonged or extreme enough, this configuration can be accompanied by outbursts of civil unrest or disobedience. A public panic crisis event such as we have been urging preparation for would likely occur at or near this type of configuration (see the presentation available at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt).

In summary, global society is about to enter a new reality. It should be quite interesting. Grab some popcorn and watch the news. Next month, we should all have a much clearer idea of what this global shakeup was all about.
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http://anewstory.org/markets/August_MoodCompass.pdf
(current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.