North Korea Explodes: WorldMood 30 July – 13 August, 2017

The North Korea situation is going to get worse before it gets better.  That is what our latest WorldMood map is implying.  Our previous map, which covered July 17-31, 2017 indicated a “volatile” North Korea.  On July 28, there was news of a new missile launch.  There may be a different response this time from what has been the status quo.  The latest map (below) paints the entire East Asia region red.



For the next week or two, a region which includes North and South Korea, Japan, and China is likely to be in the news quite a bit.  While it’s possible that there could be several different volatile circumstances developing in China, Japan, and Korea, the simplest way to view this from current information would be that the instability of the North Korea situation is likely to expand and become quite heated in the near term.  Other areas that stand out from a “background normal” in the coming two weeks are Somalia aggressiveness and a destructive theme in West Africa.

What is the source of this information?  From research that spans two decades, we take internet search trend data and translate that to near future social mood.  This is analyzed geographically to produce a MoodMap. 

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Update July 18. 2017
Item #2: Russia Threatens Retaliatory Measures over Seized U.S. Mansions

Update July 28, 2017
Russia "asserts their position" with a sanctions retaliation. N. Korea "returns to the headlines" escalating that situation with a missile launch.   The WorldMood map for the next two weeks (will post soon) implies an extremely volatile situation in the region of North and South Korea, Japan and China.  My guess is that this thing gets more intense over the next few days.

Update July 30, 2017
Last day of this map Russia cuts size of U.S. diplomatic mission.

WorldMood July 17-31, 2017

Last week, the region including Turkey, Syria, and Iraq was highlighted as an area that could receive additional attention for destruction or destructiveness.  Early in the week, rubble, destruction, and bodies were in the news coverage of the area even as victory was being declared by Iraq over ISIS and a ceasefire was announced for Syria.  On July 4, N. Korea launched a ballistic missile, yet the timing we had been using for our maps showed an "explosive" N. Korea situation for the week following the launch.  While tensions were elevated and news coverage of the ICBM launch was in the news early in the week, we have decided that it's necessary to expand the timing of our map coverage to two weeks, as the explosive description would have best included the week of the launch.  

The map below covers the period approximately July 17-31, 2017.  A few areas stand out from "background normal" and are listed below the map.   What's our source of information?  Over a decade of research shows that what we collectively focus on, as seen in our top weekly internet search trends, tends to show up as types of news events a few weeks later. The mood conveyed by the search trends can be quantified and even analyzed geographically.



WorldMood July 17 - 31, 2017:

The few identified global regions for this period that stand out from the background are:

1) N. Korea should return to the headlines over the next two weeks as the situation there becomes heated or volatile.

2) Russia is highlighted as "assertive."  Watch for them to flex their muscles or assert their positions over this period.

3) A region in southwestern China is marked "disruptive."  This mood configuration often is associated with social disruption (civil unrest, protests, and/or terrorist activity).  Because of the particular area highlighted (near the Himalayas), it could also coincide with an earthquake event.

4) Syria and Iraq are marked as "emotional."  This is not surprising as there's been so much upheaval there recently.  The U.K. is also highlighted as emotional.  It's not clear at this time what this might be referring to.  In addition to "emotional" this same configuration can be associated with "wet" or lots of rain.

A Less Friendly World: June 5-11, 2017

Searching the internet for a view of next week’s world (June 5-11, 2017) shows it to be a much less friendly place than it was this past week.   How do I find a map of next week’s “world” on the internet?  To those familiar with our work, you know that we take top search trends and convert them into four primary mood qualities, which in turn gives us a near future glimpse of likely types of news events and market movement.  Doing this for various countries around the world, and processing that with Geographical Information Software allows us to produce a map we call WorldMood (below).



Here are the highlights for next week:

1. The arrow between Europe and the U.S. that was marked “negotiations” last week, now says “cessation.”  There may be previous areas of commerce or communications that are abruptly terminated this week.  This could be a fallout from the pullout of the Paris Agreement by the U.S. or from something else.
2. A possible “hot spot” is where Russia meets the area of Georgia and Azerbaijan.
3. The Persian Gulf is another potential “hot spot.”  Watch for potential disruption or surprises there.  Also several countries (Iran, Yemen, Somalia, and Oman) are in the area marked “Disruptive.”  This may highlight civil unrest or an uptick in terrorist activity.
4. China is in an aggressive mood.  Hmmm….  There is also a spot of “disruption” in the Sichuan Province area.  We’ll keep an eye on that to see what might develop.
5. The U.K. is in a serious mood.  Is this grief from last week's terrorist attacks or is there something even bigger to be somber about?
6. Kazakhstan is in a serious mood.  This may be related to whatever is happening with Russia and other areas nearby.

In the midst of a troubled world, may your own world be one of peace in the week ahead.

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Update: June 5, 2017
Wow! The Persian Gulf Crisis showed up on the map BEFORE it happened! https://www.voanews.com/.../saudi-arabia.../3887058.html  (See item #3 in the "highlights for next week" list).

Update: June 7, 2017
Jeepers!  Another hit on item #3.  I thought the idea of a terrorist attack in Iran was a strange idea, but that's what we got!  http://time.com/4808655/iran-parliament-attack-shooting/

WorldMood... Coming Soon

This is a celebration of the return to a project that had to be put aside in 2012.  Previous events that were detected using the WorldMood methodology (aka MoodCompass) include the Arab Spring uprising, the Fukishima event (see TV news video), and a Persian Gulf blockade attempt by Iran.
What is WorldMood?  Similar to what is done each day to obtain U.S. mood and market forecasts, top internet search trends from a sampling of countries around the world are being gathered by our MarketMood.net team and processed by geographic analysis software.  We currently have enough data to begin a weekly look at the mood of the world on a country by country basis.  When looking at weekly scale data (as opposed to monthly) it's difficult, for instance, to tell if an "aggressive" country implies that they are likely to start dropping bombs that week, but it does tell us that there is an elevated risk of a geopolitical escalation from other weeks. We anticipate monthly scale analysis in the early fall.  With both weekly and monthly analysis, we will have an even better picture of significant changes to watch for.

In the meantime, I hope you enjoy weekly WorldMood profiles.  The first one will be out in a few days!!!

The Mood Pattern of Terror

There is an identifiable social mood pattern that is associated with social disruption.  The types of events included in social disruption are protests, strikes, riots, “random” mass violence, and terrorist activity.  An example of this pattern can be seen below in the monthly mood configuration for June.  The basic pattern is high Manic and low Controlled (with mood/effect inverted as it is currently).  When the second highest mood quality is Vulnerable, it ends up being more ideological (e.g. protests and strikes).  When the second highest quality is Expansive, it tends to be more violent.
 

Time scale is important as well.  When this pattern shows up on a daily scale, the events that may arise near that date could be of little significance to the general public and may not even make the news.  On a weekly scale, something in the socially disruptive category is more likely to show up in the news.  On a monthly scale, such as what we have in June, there is almost certainty that a highly significant event or events of this type will be in the news, and will have an emotional impact, at the very least, on the American people (since the measure is U.S. mood).

On June 12th, around 2am, the tragic and unfortunate shooting in Orlando occurred.  One can hope that the largest mass shooting in American history would be sufficient to satisfy a monthly scale disruptive mood configuration.  Yet, while not a certainty, there is an indication that something else may be next.  The exact same social mood pattern for the month of June showed up on a daily scale on June 11th, the day before the Orlando shooting.  It shows up again on June 26th (see June daily mood timeline below).  While a daily scale configuration is not usually of newsworthy significance, when it matches the larger pattern, it may be an indication of specifically when it may show up as part of the news cycle.

This is not being shared to create fear or terror.  It is a reminder to use the due diligence that is always important.  That is, staying aware of our environment and looking for unusual activity or behavior in the people around us, and for anything especially out of place.  This is especially true for the next couple of days.

Update: 6/26/16 3pm Pacific Time 
It's not terrorism, but this certainly fulfills the criteria.  Hopefully with no one dying this time: Protesters, white supremacists clash at State Capitol.  Officials: 5 people stabbed, 2 critically injured

Update: 6/28/16
No such luck.  Terrorism strikes again.
Suicide bombs kills 28, wound dozens at Istanbul airport

U.S. Outlook for August 2015 (video)

Global uncertainty rises and assumptions are challenged, according to the U.S. social mood "weather forecast" for August 2015.  A serious or deadly event on the California coast is also a possibility.
 

Terrorist Activity Watch: July 7-11, 2015 (video)

A spike in manic mood often accompanies terrorist activity.  U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows climax disruptive mood event(s) in the week ahead.  This may include a spike in mayhem, protests, and/or terrorist activity in the news.



Update:

The climax event we were watching for was on 7/16, the shooting in Chattanooga, TN in which 5 servicemen died as well as the gunman.  Chattanooga is within the high risk area highlighted by our map, but the event took place a few days outside of our time window.