October 2008 – Holding the Global Pieces Together

I know things have been pretty tense lately in the U.S. and in the world. Jobs are getting harder to come by and money is tighter all around. The world is changing quickly, this country is changing as well. If we can just get through the next several months of rapid and sweeping changes things should pause at least long enough for us to take a breath and look around. It will not be like it "used to be" -- ever. The important thing is to be flexible on an emotional level. As we watch pieces of our way of life that have been important to us fade away, we may grieve, but we must accept it and move on. There is a time for everything, and the time to fight for a better world or for past ideals is not now. Now is the time to keep your head low, go with the flow, and survive the changes in the tide.

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:

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Last month we focused on the United States and a possible market crash between September 16th and the 26th. While at the time of this publication, September 27th, the stock market indices have not reflected a crash in “points,” the month saw the demise of several “great American institutions” such as Lehman Brothers, and Washington Mutual Bank. Many individual stocks experienced declines of crash proportions. Retirement portfolios comprised of unlucky investments were destroyed.

In October, the focus quickly shifts away from the United States to the global scene. As economies around the world lick their wounds from last month, the awareness grows as to just how fragile the interconnected, globalized way of life truly is. While a spirit of unity or common goals might go far to solve the issues at hand, that is not what we find this month. Every nation and sub-group is ready to fight for their own interests. And it is in this spirit of self-assertive self interest that world leaders will try to hold the pieces of the fragile global puzzle together. We wish them luck!

In the U.S. an election draws near. Over the past couple of years occasional speculation has been made in various blogs and publications that something would occur near the election to draw attention away from domestic issues. Interestingly, the configuration for U.S. social mood is externally focused throughout the month even though the economy is in serious difficulty and an important election is about to take place. What a curious coincidence!

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http://anewstory.org/markets/October_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net/.

September – The Great Market Crash of 2008

As I wrote this month's MoodCompass intro, I could only wonder when I might get to write about some good news. It just seems to keep getting worse... Here's the excerpt from the September issue:

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How do we say this… Let’s see… THIS LOOKS REALLY BAD!!! Last month we discussed an event or series of events centered around August 8-11 that could change the geopolitical and/or global economic landscape. The Russia/Georgia conflict certainly qualifies. This month, the globalization experiment continues to be severely challenged as cooperation between nations and even within nations continues to deteriorate. The global economy, already damaged, is likely to be severely crippled by the time this month is over.

However, our primary concern this month is not “the world.” It is one country in particular… the United States of America. For the last few weeks, optimism has been on the rise. There have been calls of bottoms in the stock market, beginning with the zany Jim Cramer of CNBC. Analysts have begun suggesting that it is time to buy stocks again. As of Friday (the 22nd), the stock market is up for the month of August. In a bear market, fading pessimism is not a good sign. It is a clear sign that the next leg down is about to start, and this next one looks particularly severe.

There may be increasing signs that the American consumer is not doing well, or that businesses are in trouble. Anxiety among stock market traders may begin to increase as the stock market does not sell off like “it should” in the face of the seriousness of the global and national indicators. Eventually, the rubber band will snap. This next one should be unlike any stock market decline in recent memory.

It is the aftermath of this, how it changes the face of America that is of primary concern. How will all of our lives be affected as the investments, the life savings of so many are wiped out? How do retired persons or those about to retire who did the “right thing” now face that they have nothing of substance to live on? How do businesses large enough to be publicly owned companies continue to retain workers when their capitalization has been practically erased? What is the effect of such extreme socioeconomic changes just before a presidential election?

This is not good news. There is no apparent silver lining. We have taken on the task of warning of approaching storms. It is time to hunker down. This one will be a doozie.

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http://anewstory.org/moodcompass/Sep08_MoodCompass.pdf
(current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For more information on MoodCompass, check out MoodCompass.com.

The Next Banks to Fail

I just received this list from Weiss Research and would like to pass it on. This is their list of major banks most likely to fail. They consider a "C" rating to be a "yellow light" and a "D" rating to be an indication that you may seriously want to consider moving your money somewhere else. They also say to be on the alert for the "C" rated banks to be downgraded to "D".

Depression Era Clothing Gives a Heads Up

There is more and more talk about the Great Depression, and still more denial that its 21st century version is fast approaching. The fashion trends for the fall are expressing what our collective unconscious "knows." The quote below from the New York Post heralds this new trend. Expect fashions to get much more plain and depression-era like in the next few years, as this year's is a "lighter" version of the 1930's fashions.

"The duds say it all-- and it's depressing. Taking a cue from the grim economy, this fall's fashions at Banana Republic, Gap and H&M are featuring a distinctly Depression-era trend of cloche hats, pencil skirts, conductor caps and baggy, vintage-style dresses. One of the most popular styles appears to hark back to the impish newsboy getup of the 1930s baggy trousers, caps, pinstriped vests, oxford lace-up shoes and utilitarian handbags."
-- The New York Post, July 28, 2008

August 2008 – A New Global Reality

August looks extremely interesting. I found it unusually puzzling to put the MoodCompass together for next month. Something big was clearly showing up, but I couldn't figure out exactly what it could be. It must be something outside of the current context, thus the title - A New Global Reality.

Here's this month's MoodCompass excerpt:

This month, something fundamental about our world changes. It may be the way global society conducts business, or perhaps a major revision to the geopolitical situation. Although the extreme scale is clear from the observed and projected social mood cycles, it is difficult to be more specific. While this focal period is only a couple of weeks away, it occurs in a context that is not yet apparent. It takes place in a different reality than the current one; the only one available to interpret the social mood configurations of the coming month.

Near August 8-11 is a global scale “safety seeking” configuration. It resembles the configuration in U.S. social mood at the time of the buyout of the investment bank Bear Sterns in March and the expressed intended bailout of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (institutions integral to the U.S. mortgage system) in July. However, what we are concerned with in August is more extreme in scale, and global in scope.

At this same time in U.S. society, we find the “survival focused” configuration. A mini version of this occurred near the end of June. This configuration is marked by a heightened aggressiveness in asserting survival interests or instinctual needs, and a lowered importance or general disregard for the factors necessary to maintain the “economic machine” our society depends on. If prolonged or extreme enough, this configuration can be accompanied by outbursts of civil unrest or disobedience. A public panic crisis event such as we have been urging preparation for would likely occur at or near this type of configuration (see the presentation available at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt).

In summary, global society is about to enter a new reality. It should be quite interesting. Grab some popcorn and watch the news. Next month, we should all have a much clearer idea of what this global shakeup was all about.
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http://anewstory.org/markets/August_MoodCompass.pdf
(current issue viewable by subscription only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.

July 2008 - A Wild Ride!

Here's this month's MoodCompass excerpt:

June, we said, was the gateway to at least six months of increasing global chaos and disruption. Life in the U.S. and abroad would be outside of what we have come to know as “normal” in the second half of 2008. Well, we’re here now. After looking closely at the month of July, we are sorry to say that it still looks that way.

In July we should expect a global stock market sell-off, much worse than anything we saw in the month of June. Crude should continue to stay supported, even though global economies are starting to buckle under the weight of the high prices. With all of this turbulence one would expect high volatility in the currency markets. However, oddly enough, all indications are that the U.S. Dollar is unusually stable. It is unclear whether markets are simply non-directional for the entire month or whether some new type of external controls are added to currency markets to stabilize them in very volatile times. Behind all of this global distress appears to be extreme geopolitical tensions. The economic distress this month alone (and it gets worse as the year goes on), could be enough to cause surges in the unemployment lines. We again urge people to prepare for the possibility of a public panic event in the next few months. A presentation can be downloaded at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt.

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For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net.

June 2008 - Gateway to Chaos

Working for A New Story Foundation is interesting and exciting, but sometimes the work we do in looking at social trends and cycles can be a bit scary. What we see in our forecast for June and through the end of this year, I must say, makes me want to gather my family together and hunker down. Unfortunately, as with many Americans, family components are scattered across the country. I would like to share this excerpt from our latest (June) issue of MoodCompass:

"We recently prepared a long range forecast for the second half of this year for internal planning purposes. To sum it up, the entire second half of the year looks increasingly serious, chaotic, violent, and disruptive. The situations that individuals will be facing in this country and on the planet for at least the next six months should be extremely challenging. While we can’t know the specific events that will take place, what we do know is that the situations that present themselves will be perceived over and over again as far outside what “normal” is supposed to be. The second half of 2008 is a different world, in a sense, from the first half.

What that means is that June is the turning point, a one way door into a very different global context than that with which we have become familiar. Through whatever choices, decisions, and actions are made this month, the world will be set on a course that will bring increasing chaos, disruption, and distress for at least the remainder of the year. Although this is not the end of the world, what is likely, in the coming six months, is runaway inflation in certain sectors concurrent with extremely depressed prices in others; outbreaks of civil unrest in some locations due to disagreements with government policies or to general distress and frustration; outbreaks of public panic in some areas due to perceived or actual disruption of fuel or food (for more information on public panic events: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt).

The focal point for June itself is the third week of the month. There is a high likelihood of a geopolitical crisis and excessive losses in the stock market beginning early in the week."

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For the lastest updates on social mood see http://marketmood.net/.