The Week Ahead: Feb 25, 2013

Global Mood This Week: Watch for increasing instability, volatility, and aggression for the week of February 25.

The Market Week Ahead:  Large moves are possible. Models show a short term trend change-- a choppy upward move in the stock market is most likely. If a market top is not already in place, it should be made this week.

Long term: The social mood trend has turned down. The market should be in the initial stages of a long term downtrend.  Increasing socioeconomic instability should follow.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Big Risk of Small Problems: Global Mood thru Feb 26

Social mood through February 26 reflects uncertainty, confusion, and the unexpected. People are contrarian and argumentative, making group efforts challenging.  Bad news seems to be on the rise, but is it really that bad?

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents are likely to continue to make headlines, however any fatalities should be relatively low in number*.

Epidemic factors are again decreasing. The flu should be less of a concern this period.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated. However, chances for major disasters are low.

Significant Natural Events: Risks for significant natural events are elevated, but no major disasters with high casualty count are expected*. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and fires.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of potential impact to U.S. society. Events of equivalent impact without fatalities are also possible (e.g. economic loss). Also, since U.S. social mood changes are the measure, if event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.

Market Downturn Confirmed (video)

Social Mood changes have confirmed that a significant downturn has begun. Indications that a global economic collapse that may be in progress are presented.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Confused & Surprised: Global Mood thru Feb 21, '13

Social mood through February 21 reflects uncertainty, confusion, and the unexpected. People are contrarian and argumentative, making group efforts challenging.

U.S. Disaster Alert:  Social mood changes indicate that an event perceived as a crisis, upheaval, or disaster is likely to occur Feb. 11-21 in or directly affecting the United States of America.

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents are likely to increase in frequency and in scale.

Epidemic factors are showing a slight increase. While a peak in the flu outbreak has likely already occurred, this could be an especially bad week.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated. 

Significant Natural Events: Risks for significant natural events are elevated. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and wildfires.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Examples of this social mood configuration in the news:
2/10-14: Carnival Triumph- "The cruise from hell"
2/15: Meteorite hits Russia with force of atomic bomb, about 1100 injured
2/19: 4 dead, including suspect, in Orange County shooting spree.
         Gas explosion ignites restaurant in Kansas City; dozens injured
2/20-21: Wall Street drops on growth concerns, fear index jumps
2/21: Shooting, fiery crash on Las Vegas strip leaves 3 dead

Peaks, Cliffs, and Civilization - 2013

As many are aware from previous postings here, and from others who look at the big picture in socioeconomics, cycles, ecosystems, civilizations, etc., our current way of life stands at a crossroads.  For years we have watched as peaks in energy production and resources have approached, some passing by, and some peaking around now.  This implies that industrial output, and the availability of many of the goods and services we have been privileged to have enjoyed are in the process of peaking now as well.  The "fiscal cliff" may not be the only cliff that is approaching.

As the social mood and the markets were nearing extremes in pessimism, the March 2009 issue of our previous publication MoodCompass warned:

"Global stock markets are near a low and the negativity in social mood is nearing a peak.  This is not the end of the economic downturn, but it is near the end of increased disintegration for now.  When the next long term peak in optimism arrives, that will be the time to look for things to really begin to get bad!"

Are we passing that peak right now?  No one can tell for sure if a peak has occurred until it is well passed.  There are signs that a peak may be in progress.  One example of bizarrely blind optimism, such as would occur at a peak, was apparent in the responses to today's disappointing GDP.  There were flat out refutations of an economic contraction (in spite of a negative GDP) because the greatest plunge in 40 years of government spending was not "the economy," it was just "the government."

Because one of the initial manifestations of a socioeconomic downturn (after social mood) is the stock market, it would be good to closely monitor both social mood and the market for evidence of a peak.  Whether the current topping process is the peak, or simply the beginning of a short "correction" before more peaking, will likely be known only after some time has passed.

As was mentioned in a recent post on U.S. Market Health, a negative change in trend appears to be in progress.  It was also said that one down week (or even two) doesn't mean that the Great Downturn is here... but it might be.

 

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
 

U.S. Stock Market Health and Social Mood

There has recently been an increase in posts around the internet and in the news that the U.S. stock market may be about to plunge to a mere fraction of its current value.  At the same time, the market continues to go up, defying even the most adamant of bears.

In response to a request by a follower of this blog, we will chime in on what current U.S. social mood trends have to say about the health and well being of the stock market (apologies to those who aren't stock market fans as the language in here is geared towards market people and traders).

1).  Social mood (as measured by our assessment of daily top Google Hot Trends) peaked near November 19, 2012.  It has come down in a choppy fashion and is now at "support."  What it does from here is critical, not only for the well being of the stock market, but to the socioeconomic vitality of the United States (and likely, the world).

2).  Manifested social mood (as measured by our assessment of daily top U.S. news stories) may have peaked on January 14, 2013.  It has yet to make a "lower low."  FYI- Google Hot Trends signals have a better track record of being predictive of the stock market than U.S. news stories.

3).  The weekly projection for next week (from a 7 day EMA Google Hot Trend signal) is showing the first down week in six weeks.  While this week's projection (week of Jan. 21) was showing slightly positive, it was also indicating a trend change was near.  A new downtrend starts with one down week, however, by itself this does not indicate that the much anticipated huge decline has begun.

4)  Last, but not least, for those who follow Ellliot Wave patterns, the market has not yet risen above the 2007 high.  This would indicate that a sharp third wave down is still possible, but would have to begin momentarily (for more information on the Grand Supercycle, Elliot Waves, and what that means for the stock market as well as global society, see http://elliotwave.com).  It is also possible, that the markets will make new record highs, and then begin the first wave of the Grand Supercycle decline.  If so, that would mean less of a decline, at least initially.

For those looking for a big change in the market and the outlook of the world, this would be the year that it happens, and it is a good possibility, all things considered, that we could be days away from the beginning of that change to manifest in the markets.  However, there is no evidence that we can see at this time, that it won't be another few weeks or even months for the Great Downturn to occur.  Since social mood precedes stock market behavior, the next few days and weeks will tell us if we are about to soar to new heights or fall faster and farther than any of us in America could have ever imagined.

Hang on!

For more information on how we assess social mood and its relationship to the stock market see the "Mood and the Market" tab at http://moodcompass.com. 

Angry and Active, Global Mood thru Jan 28, '13

The social mood for Jan 25-28 reflects a desire for action, and a willingness to take action.  People are angry and argumentative, making cooperative efforts challenging.  Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents should continue to grab news headlines.

Epidemic factors, while still elevated,  are beginning to show a decrease.  A peak in the flu outbreak may be occuring.

Globally, the liklihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated.  However, no major disaster is anticipated.

Significant Natural Events: While no major disasters are expected, there is an elevated risk for significant natural events. The types most associated with the current pattern are volcanoes, earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and wildfires.


For more information on the current outlook or The MoodCompass Project see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also join the MoodCompass Project on .


*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of potential impact to U.S. society. Events of equivalent impact without fatalities are also possible (e.g. economic loss). Also, since U.S. social mood changes are the measure, if  event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.