Thursday, July 23, 2009
Gaia is Agitated: August '09
Our newest release is the "Earth's Mood Cycles," and is Gaia agitated in August! I am so excited about this breakthrough research. Let's hope that we get the message this time! It's now available for public perusal at the link above.
Friday, July 3, 2009
July 2009 - A War Dance
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
While most of our social mood data comes from the United States, the patterns showing up here also manifest in societies throughout the world, and often in a more extreme manner. Last November, exactly where the social configuration indicated “chaos breaks out,” the Mumbai terrorist attacks occurred. Last month, exactly where a “paradigm shift” was indicated, riots and protests in favor of a new leader were seen in Iran.
In the first half of July, is a social configuration known as the “War Dance.” Metaphorically, think of warriors putting on war paint, pounding their chests, and beating on drums. Expect to see a surge in nationalism and the mentality of “good guys” and “bad guys.” The configuration for the US government is indicative of both high activity and “posturing” with the outside world. However, this occurs after the societal “War Dance” indicating that this action is likely responsive. Also, while “forceful,” the U.S. action should be primarily diplomatic (SE over SW).
With all of this, there are no indications of any new major outbreaks of war at this time. However, watch for the “War Dance” posturing and beginnings of a response before the 14th of the month. While at this time, it is not yet possible to pinpoint where the focal point of this “War Dance” will manifest, the most likely candidates are N. Korea and Iran. This “War Dance” configuration reappears at month’s end. Should the government assure that “all is well” at that time, be wary, as this would be coincident with a “denial” configuration.
There are no indications of a likelihood of actual disruptions in the supply of crude oil. However, when people are worried, even needlessly, they can resort to hoarding. Please refer to our Public Panic Crisis Event presentation for more information on this phenomenon (it is available on our website at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt). The most likely period for a manifestation of panic in the markets or otherwise is July 23 – 28. The likely public response to rising oil and gas prices near the 13th is unclear.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jul09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
- - -
While most of our social mood data comes from the United States, the patterns showing up here also manifest in societies throughout the world, and often in a more extreme manner. Last November, exactly where the social configuration indicated “chaos breaks out,” the Mumbai terrorist attacks occurred. Last month, exactly where a “paradigm shift” was indicated, riots and protests in favor of a new leader were seen in Iran.
In the first half of July, is a social configuration known as the “War Dance.” Metaphorically, think of warriors putting on war paint, pounding their chests, and beating on drums. Expect to see a surge in nationalism and the mentality of “good guys” and “bad guys.” The configuration for the US government is indicative of both high activity and “posturing” with the outside world. However, this occurs after the societal “War Dance” indicating that this action is likely responsive. Also, while “forceful,” the U.S. action should be primarily diplomatic (SE over SW).
With all of this, there are no indications of any new major outbreaks of war at this time. However, watch for the “War Dance” posturing and beginnings of a response before the 14th of the month. While at this time, it is not yet possible to pinpoint where the focal point of this “War Dance” will manifest, the most likely candidates are N. Korea and Iran. This “War Dance” configuration reappears at month’s end. Should the government assure that “all is well” at that time, be wary, as this would be coincident with a “denial” configuration.
There are no indications of a likelihood of actual disruptions in the supply of crude oil. However, when people are worried, even needlessly, they can resort to hoarding. Please refer to our Public Panic Crisis Event presentation for more information on this phenomenon (it is available on our website at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt). The most likely period for a manifestation of panic in the markets or otherwise is July 23 – 28. The likely public response to rising oil and gas prices near the 13th is unclear.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jul09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Saturday, June 27, 2009
The Next Six Months -- A Volatile World
I’d like to give you a heads up on the big picture, as A New Story Foundation has just completed a six month global mood and market outlook. Here is a brief summary for July - December 2009.
Look for global tensions to flare this summer and reach a peak in the fall. If the usual players are involved, then look for: 1) The issue regarding the US Dollar and world reserve currency should continue to increase tensions with the US, China, and Russia. 2) Russia is likely to be doing the natural gas hostage play again, increasing tensions with Europe and former Soviet States. 3) Also, watch for a hot spot in the Middle East due to the instability in Iran, and possible nervousness on the part of Israel and/or Iraq. 4) North Korea should continue to be an uncertain annoyance in the background.
The global economic picture should continue to deteriorate, and markets should generally be down to sideways through October. Unemployment should climb well beyond current levels. Look for valiant government efforts to turn things around by the end of the year. Near year's end should be the beginnings of a turnaround in sentiment that should continue into early 2010. Expect a surge of hope (or denial) in November, and an attempt to see “silver linings” within a context of bad data or news in December.
Stay well,
Cari
Look for global tensions to flare this summer and reach a peak in the fall. If the usual players are involved, then look for: 1) The issue regarding the US Dollar and world reserve currency should continue to increase tensions with the US, China, and Russia. 2) Russia is likely to be doing the natural gas hostage play again, increasing tensions with Europe and former Soviet States. 3) Also, watch for a hot spot in the Middle East due to the instability in Iran, and possible nervousness on the part of Israel and/or Iraq. 4) North Korea should continue to be an uncertain annoyance in the background.
The global economic picture should continue to deteriorate, and markets should generally be down to sideways through October. Unemployment should climb well beyond current levels. Look for valiant government efforts to turn things around by the end of the year. Near year's end should be the beginnings of a turnaround in sentiment that should continue into early 2010. Expect a surge of hope (or denial) in November, and an attempt to see “silver linings” within a context of bad data or news in December.
Stay well,
Cari
Saturday, May 30, 2009
June 2009 – Considering the Demise of America
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
The month of June is showing extremely complex social mood patterns, and the issues under consideration this month should be similarly complex. Following what may be some type of extreme event on or before June 3rd, there is a background of general anxiety throughout the month. With both “East” factors high, the global context is of high level meetings, negotiations and diplomacy. The very symbols of the global system, currency and credit, are likely subjects of discussion and reevaluation.
There is a curious configuration appearing in the mood pattern for US society mid month. It signals a sociological event, a paradigm shift related to identity. What does it mean to be an American? The idea of the United States and its place within the world system are considered and evaluated. Questions such as, “Is the United States past its prime? Is it overextended beyond repair?” “Is the US Dollar still a preferred reserve currency?” are all likely topics of discussion. The resolution to these questions will be interesting to watch as it unfolds. It could be one of resignation, or it could lead to a renewed sense of vision for the American people as well as a new urgency to succeed and lead the way to a global recovery.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jun09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
- - -
The month of June is showing extremely complex social mood patterns, and the issues under consideration this month should be similarly complex. Following what may be some type of extreme event on or before June 3rd, there is a background of general anxiety throughout the month. With both “East” factors high, the global context is of high level meetings, negotiations and diplomacy. The very symbols of the global system, currency and credit, are likely subjects of discussion and reevaluation.
There is a curious configuration appearing in the mood pattern for US society mid month. It signals a sociological event, a paradigm shift related to identity. What does it mean to be an American? The idea of the United States and its place within the world system are considered and evaluated. Questions such as, “Is the United States past its prime? Is it overextended beyond repair?” “Is the US Dollar still a preferred reserve currency?” are all likely topics of discussion. The resolution to these questions will be interesting to watch as it unfolds. It could be one of resignation, or it could lead to a renewed sense of vision for the American people as well as a new urgency to succeed and lead the way to a global recovery.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jun09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Saturday, May 2, 2009
May 2009 – Did Somebody Say “All Clear”?
The Swine Flu may end up not being much more than "the flu," but stay prepared with back up plans for schools, day care, and even groceries "just in case." People can be fickle and hard to predict as to what leads them to decide whether something is worth panicking over or not.
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
Last month there was an indication of an “unexpected ‘extreme event’ on a global scale.” It was somewhat of a puzzle for us, as the effects on the government appeared to be extreme, yet there was no indication of a stock market crash or heightened geopolitical concerns. If it wasn’t the economy, a war, or a terrorist attack, what could possibly put the U.S. government into such a tizzy? As events unfolded during the month, the swine flu scare was the best fit for this “extreme event.” While we had cited the beginning of the event as likely to be the week of the 13th, the crisis point indicated by our U.S. government chart was April 24-27, exactly where the flu made U.S. (and world) headlines.
As of this writing, there is a downplaying of the seriousness of this flu by the World Health Organization. While its trivialization may or may not end up being a correct assessment, it is important to notice that the alert level is still being maintained at 5. While we are not public health or epidemiology experts in any sense of the word, there are some signals in our social mood and perception charts that encourage continued vigilance for the time being. 1) The global context for the week of May 4 is one of denial of the full extent of a very serious situation. 2) There are indications of a situation that is seen as extremely serious by U.S. society mid to late month with concurrent panic on a global scale. 3) While there may be economic ramifications, the situation does not appear to be primarily economic.
Of course, this is a new month, and there could be completely new problems that fulfill these criteria. The concern is that a brush off of the swine flu and later resurgence of panic regarding its spread or seriousness is much too consistent with the three factors listed above to allow complacency about it just yet. Whether it ends up being “just a flu” in reality or not, panic, and its effect on our daily lives, is all about perception.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/May09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
Last month there was an indication of an “unexpected ‘extreme event’ on a global scale.” It was somewhat of a puzzle for us, as the effects on the government appeared to be extreme, yet there was no indication of a stock market crash or heightened geopolitical concerns. If it wasn’t the economy, a war, or a terrorist attack, what could possibly put the U.S. government into such a tizzy? As events unfolded during the month, the swine flu scare was the best fit for this “extreme event.” While we had cited the beginning of the event as likely to be the week of the 13th, the crisis point indicated by our U.S. government chart was April 24-27, exactly where the flu made U.S. (and world) headlines.
As of this writing, there is a downplaying of the seriousness of this flu by the World Health Organization. While its trivialization may or may not end up being a correct assessment, it is important to notice that the alert level is still being maintained at 5. While we are not public health or epidemiology experts in any sense of the word, there are some signals in our social mood and perception charts that encourage continued vigilance for the time being. 1) The global context for the week of May 4 is one of denial of the full extent of a very serious situation. 2) There are indications of a situation that is seen as extremely serious by U.S. society mid to late month with concurrent panic on a global scale. 3) While there may be economic ramifications, the situation does not appear to be primarily economic.
Of course, this is a new month, and there could be completely new problems that fulfill these criteria. The concern is that a brush off of the swine flu and later resurgence of panic regarding its spread or seriousness is much too consistent with the three factors listed above to allow complacency about it just yet. Whether it ends up being “just a flu” in reality or not, panic, and its effect on our daily lives, is all about perception.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/May09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Monday, March 30, 2009
April 2009 – Let Me Off this Crazy Ride!
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
The stock market apparently made a bottom last month, but it’s not yet time to celebrate. The cycling of moods in April look like a harsh dose of reality clashing with burgeoning optimism. It isn’t pretty. The focus this month is not primarily the stock market. Believe it or not, there are other things happening in the world and in life to pay attention to.
In general, U.S. Society throughout the month is agitated, perhaps even angry. People are tired of hearing about the economic downturn and what needs to be done about it. They are tired of their government fighting about what should and should not be done. While social unrest around the world last month was quite high, it is yet to be seen whether this fuse gets ignited into some massive demonstration or outbreak in this country.
In the marketplace this month, look for a strong resurgence in the energy markets. Expect the price for oil and gasoline to climb throughout much of the month. There is also extreme action indicated in the currency and bond markets. In a global social and economic sense, things are on the unstable side of the scale.
Of particular concern is the week of April 13th. There is the possibility of an unexpected “extreme event” on a global scale. The manifestation in the US government is turmoil and chaos. Whether this occurs in this country, somewhere else, or “everywhere,” the scale is large enough to cause at least two weeks of disruption of the government’s focus. Public opinion of the government during this period should be extremely low as well.
To summarize, I will quote a colleague who is gifted in the use of metaphor: “April this year is like a sick, twisted roller coaster ride at a creepy, run down carnival. You just want to get off the ride and go home.”
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Apr09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
- - -
The stock market apparently made a bottom last month, but it’s not yet time to celebrate. The cycling of moods in April look like a harsh dose of reality clashing with burgeoning optimism. It isn’t pretty. The focus this month is not primarily the stock market. Believe it or not, there are other things happening in the world and in life to pay attention to.
In general, U.S. Society throughout the month is agitated, perhaps even angry. People are tired of hearing about the economic downturn and what needs to be done about it. They are tired of their government fighting about what should and should not be done. While social unrest around the world last month was quite high, it is yet to be seen whether this fuse gets ignited into some massive demonstration or outbreak in this country.
In the marketplace this month, look for a strong resurgence in the energy markets. Expect the price for oil and gasoline to climb throughout much of the month. There is also extreme action indicated in the currency and bond markets. In a global social and economic sense, things are on the unstable side of the scale.
Of particular concern is the week of April 13th. There is the possibility of an unexpected “extreme event” on a global scale. The manifestation in the US government is turmoil and chaos. Whether this occurs in this country, somewhere else, or “everywhere,” the scale is large enough to cause at least two weeks of disruption of the government’s focus. Public opinion of the government during this period should be extremely low as well.
To summarize, I will quote a colleague who is gifted in the use of metaphor: “April this year is like a sick, twisted roller coaster ride at a creepy, run down carnival. You just want to get off the ride and go home.”
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Apr09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Saturday, February 28, 2009
March 2009 – Disgruntled, Discontented, and Directionless
Global Risk of Social Unrest: EXTREME!
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
March 2009 – Disgruntled, Discontented, and Directionless
The background theme throughout the month is an aimless, anxious, agitation. People, in general, are worried about the future; increasing numbers are concerned with survival needs in the present. To make matters worse, no one is quite sure how to respond to all that is going on.
Global stock markets are near a low and the negativity in social mood is nearing a peak. At such long term cycle peaks, the risk of civil unrest reaches an extremely high probability of occurring; the risk of misunderstandings between governments also rises.
There are numerous opinions about how governments should be dealing with the economic turmoil. While there is little consensus on exactly what should be done, there is much agreement, globally, that whatever is being done, by whoever is in charge, is the wrong thing, and that whatever they are doing is either not enough or is going to make matters worse. In the US, differences between political parties over the past month have been extreme. This month, divisiveness reaches a whole new level, and it would not be surprising to see some type of a demand for action, an insistence that the debate come to a conclusion so that plans can be crystallized and implemented. “Enough talk already! What are you going to DO about it?”
All of this painful agitation and searching for direction should likewise be a theme in the marketplace throughout the month. This is not the end of the economic downturn, but it is near the end of increased disintegration for now. When the next long term peak in optimism arrives, that will be the time to look for things to really begin to get bad!
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Mar09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
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