The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for November 2009. US centered economic chaos, Military display(s) of force, Hawaii event, and more swine flu are the highlights.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Is the Dollar Really Dead? Don't Fall For It!
Many have been discussing the Dollar's demise. There have been panic sell-offs of Dollars in the forex market, and U.S. Treasuries are being abandoned wholesale. Yet, this is the kind of extreme in sentiment that most often occurs at a market top or bottom. It's true that the U.S. government is borrowing unprecendented amounts of money. It's true that some countries including China, the U.S.'s primary creditor, is exploring alternatives in reserve currencies. However, as much as China, Russia, Iran, and other nations might wish there were another place to turn, the global system is intricately complex, and rests on a foundation based in debt and U.S. Dollars. Things can not safely change that fast. Also, as global anxiety climbs, and people are once again forced to liquidate assets that are primarily priced in Dollars, the U.S. currency will rise in value against the "commodity" currencies.
Even if there is still one more brief, but possibly extreme panic, holders of the U.S. Dollar will once again find their currency gaining in favor. Inflation worries will be a spector of the past, and deflation will once again be the primary concern. We've been here before. This is what it looks like at a social mood top, as markets in general begin to break down once again, and as Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar are sought as "safety." The Dollar may indeed collapse at some point, and inflation may very well soar to unbelievable heights as resources become more scarce. However, for now, and perhaps for some time to come, the Dollar may find support as the Great Recession continues to play out, and the spectre of Depression once again begins to lurk in the shadows.
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Excerpt from the October 2009 MoodCompass:
October 19 – 25: A Solution? U.S. government crisis resolved one way or another. U.S. Dollar declines sharply. Inflation concerns up sharply.
From the Week by Week Highlights of Global Mood, Perception, and Behavior on Page 2 of the October MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).
Even if there is still one more brief, but possibly extreme panic, holders of the U.S. Dollar will once again find their currency gaining in favor. Inflation worries will be a spector of the past, and deflation will once again be the primary concern. We've been here before. This is what it looks like at a social mood top, as markets in general begin to break down once again, and as Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar are sought as "safety." The Dollar may indeed collapse at some point, and inflation may very well soar to unbelievable heights as resources become more scarce. However, for now, and perhaps for some time to come, the Dollar may find support as the Great Recession continues to play out, and the spectre of Depression once again begins to lurk in the shadows.
---
Excerpt from the October 2009 MoodCompass:
October 19 – 25: A Solution? U.S. government crisis resolved one way or another. U.S. Dollar declines sharply. Inflation concerns up sharply.
From the Week by Week Highlights of Global Mood, Perception, and Behavior on Page 2 of the October MoodCompass: http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).
Monday, September 28, 2009
October 2009 – Chaos, Mayhem, and Armageddon
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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Strains on the global economy and infrastructure should continue in October. The budgets of states and local economies may be stretched to dangerous levels. The U.S. government will likely be working overtime keeping things together, and one of those all weekend crisis session is not out of the question.
And let’s not forget Iran. It would not be unlikely during the month for discussion and conjecture to arise regarding the direction of the Iran regime, the U.S. position on sanctions or military action, and potential Israeli actions. Such topics as Armageddon may even become part of ordinary conversation in the most intense periods of suspense.
The month ends with a very violent social mood configuration. It is not clear how this may manifest, but it does indicate that November could be even more interesting than October.
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http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
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October is seasonal for mischief, pranks, and random destructive acts. However, this year, the world may experience a much larger scale version of this phenomenon. Whether over fears of unknown change associated with health care reform, outrage at complacency with Iran, or economic problems yet to be solved, the United States could experience a level of civil unrest that it has not seen for many years. An even more extreme form of civil chaos could appear in Iran this month. There may be other outbreaks of this type of behavior throughout the world. Most especially pay attention to Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Thailand, Western China, and Russia.
Strains on the global economy and infrastructure should continue in October. The budgets of states and local economies may be stretched to dangerous levels. The U.S. government will likely be working overtime keeping things together, and one of those all weekend crisis session is not out of the question.
And let’s not forget Iran. It would not be unlikely during the month for discussion and conjecture to arise regarding the direction of the Iran regime, the U.S. position on sanctions or military action, and potential Israeli actions. Such topics as Armageddon may even become part of ordinary conversation in the most intense periods of suspense.
The month ends with a very violent social mood configuration. It is not clear how this may manifest, but it does indicate that November could be even more interesting than October.
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http://anewstory.org/markets/Oct09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Friday, September 25, 2009
Chaos, Mayhem & Armageddon - Oct 09 Videocast
The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for October 2009. Continued economic concerns, widespread civil unrest, and extreme Middle East tension are the highlights.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
September 09 -- Please Remain Calm
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
The last few months have seen global society move from the brink of despair to a hopeful optimism that things may actually be starting to get better (even while jobs and homes continue to be lost). Wall Street has given new meaning to irrational exuberance, as bullish sentiment indicators reach extremes that exceed the levels of the market peak of October 2007. There are rumors expressed by some commentators that there never even was a recession to begin with.
In March, we cautioned to look for such an extreme in optimism in the months ahead, as it would be the signal that things would be about to get really bad. We are here now. September is a month of paradox, confusion, turbulence, and cross currents. It is a month where hope continues to push forward, as reality persistently slaps it down. There could be large stock market declines as well as huge market rallies as people struggle to find their bearings. There are indications of high economic concerns on a global scale, yet concurrent concerns about inflation are not out of the question. Another crisis regarding the fate of the U.S. Dollar may reappear, while the Dollar builds a solid foundation from which to rally from in the coming months.
In the geopolitical arena, there is increasing violence likely in Nigeria and more civil unrest likely in Iran. Either of these could cause supply concerns in the energy markets. There is a general deterioration in the desire for cooperation among nations, most notably from Russia and the Middle East arena. Global relationships could also deteriorate with Afghanistan, Pakistan and even India. The United States could begin to show an increasingly unfriendly tone this month as well.
In the natural world, it’s the peak of hurricane season, increasing the likelihood of tropical storms and cyclones. There is also a curious indication of concerns with disease outbreaks in Asia which merits watching. Overall, September should be an interesting, if not painful month, as we all try to orient ourselves to a shifting, changing reality. Global leaders should be working overtime to ensure us that all is well, and above all to “please remain calm.”
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Sep09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
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The last few months have seen global society move from the brink of despair to a hopeful optimism that things may actually be starting to get better (even while jobs and homes continue to be lost). Wall Street has given new meaning to irrational exuberance, as bullish sentiment indicators reach extremes that exceed the levels of the market peak of October 2007. There are rumors expressed by some commentators that there never even was a recession to begin with.
In March, we cautioned to look for such an extreme in optimism in the months ahead, as it would be the signal that things would be about to get really bad. We are here now. September is a month of paradox, confusion, turbulence, and cross currents. It is a month where hope continues to push forward, as reality persistently slaps it down. There could be large stock market declines as well as huge market rallies as people struggle to find their bearings. There are indications of high economic concerns on a global scale, yet concurrent concerns about inflation are not out of the question. Another crisis regarding the fate of the U.S. Dollar may reappear, while the Dollar builds a solid foundation from which to rally from in the coming months.
In the geopolitical arena, there is increasing violence likely in Nigeria and more civil unrest likely in Iran. Either of these could cause supply concerns in the energy markets. There is a general deterioration in the desire for cooperation among nations, most notably from Russia and the Middle East arena. Global relationships could also deteriorate with Afghanistan, Pakistan and even India. The United States could begin to show an increasingly unfriendly tone this month as well.
In the natural world, it’s the peak of hurricane season, increasing the likelihood of tropical storms and cyclones. There is also a curious indication of concerns with disease outbreaks in Asia which merits watching. Overall, September should be an interesting, if not painful month, as we all try to orient ourselves to a shifting, changing reality. Global leaders should be working overtime to ensure us that all is well, and above all to “please remain calm.”
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Sep09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Monday, August 17, 2009
Please Remain Calm - Sept 09 Videocast
The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for September 2009. Global Economic Crisis, Geopolitical Tension Increase, and Disease Concerns in Asia are the highlights.
Friday, July 31, 2009
August 2009 – While We Were Sleeping
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
We spoke last month of a War Dance – some posturing and chest pounding among friends. This month, the sound of drums pounding in the distance can be heard. They’re getting closer. The situation in Iran has been simmering. N. Korea has not yet been “tamed.” There may be domestic distractions—health care, the economy, and other things to pay attention to. There are summer vacations that need to be taken, and parties to go to. However, like it or not, it will be difficult to ignore the sound of the drums, especially near the end of the month.
There is a recent expansion of our research into cycles of mood and perception to a personification of the Earth or Nature itself and its “moods” created from a collage of how human’s perceive non-human nature. In August, there is heightened concern about issues related to global warming or climate change. There is a heightened risk of a moderate earthquake in the area surrounding the Indian Ocean. For whatever reason, strong concerns with disease issues are indicated in Asia at the end of the month, going into September (see http://anewstory.org/earth.htm for more info).
If all this was not enough, while Wall Street has been busy ignoring the high unemployment rates and the growing financial issues that Main Street is increasingly faced with, while banks have been finding new ways to risk money, and everyone and his brother are declaring the recession over, the ingredients for new crises have been stewing. As September approaches, a large stock market decline becomes increasingly near.
But that’s almost a month away. Go back to sleep. It’s probably just a bad dream anyway.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Aug09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
- - -
We spoke last month of a War Dance – some posturing and chest pounding among friends. This month, the sound of drums pounding in the distance can be heard. They’re getting closer. The situation in Iran has been simmering. N. Korea has not yet been “tamed.” There may be domestic distractions—health care, the economy, and other things to pay attention to. There are summer vacations that need to be taken, and parties to go to. However, like it or not, it will be difficult to ignore the sound of the drums, especially near the end of the month.
There is a recent expansion of our research into cycles of mood and perception to a personification of the Earth or Nature itself and its “moods” created from a collage of how human’s perceive non-human nature. In August, there is heightened concern about issues related to global warming or climate change. There is a heightened risk of a moderate earthquake in the area surrounding the Indian Ocean. For whatever reason, strong concerns with disease issues are indicated in Asia at the end of the month, going into September (see http://anewstory.org/earth.htm for more info).
If all this was not enough, while Wall Street has been busy ignoring the high unemployment rates and the growing financial issues that Main Street is increasingly faced with, while banks have been finding new ways to risk money, and everyone and his brother are declaring the recession over, the ingredients for new crises have been stewing. As September approaches, a large stock market decline becomes increasingly near.
But that’s almost a month away. Go back to sleep. It’s probably just a bad dream anyway.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Aug09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
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