Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Deepening Despair, Increasing Geopolitical Concerns: U.S. Social Mood for February

The following is an excerpt from the MoodCompass for February. It is serious, but gives a heads up to what appears to be a very serious month, socioeconomically speaking. February (especially the second half of the month) is a good time to stay close to home and loved ones.

February is a month of exceptional despair (extreme Somber) for U.S. society. The Fed may cut rates, the government may discuss economic incentives or other emergency measures to jump start the economy. However, no matter what is suggested, promised, or actually done, with the high Somber/Directing filter (extreme high West) anything said or done either sounds like it comes from a place of panic, or is responded to with panic. In addition, at any time that some glimmer of hope begins to show, some new bit of bad news that wasn't a part of the previous equation is likely to appear. Back in January, there was great concern expressed about the U.S. economy and the possibility of recession. Those fears have not gone away in February, but a whole new set of worries have arrived.

For the past few months, the rest of the world has been seen as steadily expansive, and as possibly having the ability to compensate for slowing U.S. growth. This view shifts drastically in February. While in January some U.S. analysts may have considered other economies to be "on the right track", and looked admiringly at Asia's growth, for instance, these kinds of commentaries will change to less complementary terms. From the view of U.S. society, the world in February looks suspicious, deceitful, belligerent, and manipulative (high Manic/East). The focus is no longer on how well some other countries are doing, but how dangerous some of them are, and how they cannot be trusted. The high Manic in general signals chaos and unpredictability. We do not know what "they" are going to do next. This sentiment will cause the price of crude oil to climb, even though the global economy is slowing, stock markets are plummeting, and the U.S. Dollar is rising—not a good combination for recovery.