Stormy Emotions Ahead: Oct. 6-7, 2013

Tropical storm Karen is supposed to make landfall along the Gulf Coast on Sunday and bring heavy rain. Metaphysically, heavy rain symbolizes strong emotions and possibly panic. One can wonder what stormy, strong emotions will be expressed by people that we might read about in the news on Sunday or Monday.  On the plus side, Karen appears to be weakening some.  That could manifest in any potential panic being minimal.

For Hawaii's weather, we are supposed to have heavy rain and thunderstorms here on Sunday and Monday also. Something sure seems to be resonating with that note in the weather. I wonder how this might show up in people-news?  I will be taking extra time to meditate and take deep breaths during the day.  You may wish to bring in whatever techniques you use to stay centered and grounded.

Aloha,
Dr. Cari Bourette


For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Collective Mood, Global Events, and the Stock Market

I am starting a new blog just for people interested in social mood's tie-in with world events and the stock market.  That way I can discuss those things with people interested in that, and continue to redevelop this blog with a different focus. 

If you are interested, it is at http://moodcompass-world.blogspot.com

Best regards,

Dr. Cari Bourette
Director,
The MoodCompass Project

U.S. Disaster Could be Imminent, August 9, 2013

We have continued to track social mood in the background these past few months, and have had nothing much to say about disasters for some time.  However, we have to mention this spike in disaster risk that has been forming over the last few days, and has just turned critical. 

 

According to U.S. social mood factors, the most likely type of disaster is MoodCompass type S SE.  For human caused disasters, this corresponds with terrorist attacks, violent protests, riots, and other anti-establishment violence.  We are all already aware of a high alert in many of our embassies overseas.  For natural disasters, the most likely type would be fires or earthquakes. 

 

According to NOAA, there is no extremely bad weather in the forecast.  Yet, globally, there is an extreme risk for a natural disaster on the scale of last year's Superstorm Sandy (worse than that if it happens outside the U.S.) on August 9 (which may also continue over the weekend).  The chart that shows the spike in natural disaster risk is below.

 

Update 8/10/13: The spike was a one day window, apparently we got through OK.  However, this indicates that we may be in for a time of increased global crises and both human and natural disasters.  Will keep you posted.

 

The patterns of Nature is the pattern of Self...

Many people understand that symbols in dreams are often metaphors that may represent past, current or even upcoming events in one's life.  They might look up in a dream book an animal or event that occurred in the dream to see what metaphysical or unconscious meaning might be getting expressed by it.  Would it be surprising to hear that all events can be seen as metaphors expressing a larger Pattern that includes the news, the weather, and even the events in our lives?

As of this moment, Flossie is a tropical storm a few days away from Hawaii.  Its winds are reported to be in the process of weakening.  There is a warning that heavy rain and flash flooding are to be expected, and possibly thunderstorms.  When I hear news like this, I prepare for the physical storm, but also look at the metaphysical symbols in the event.  Here is some of what I see in the meaning of Flossie for the world and how I might apply it personally:

1) A storm is approaching, but it's not the most ferocious of storms.  Major storms showing up in one area, often are accompanied by news events of "storminess," (e.g. unrest, market volatility, violence, natural disasters).  Watch for these symptoms of storminess in the world news this coming week.  Whatever happens could be expected to bring change, but will not likely be in the "worst ever" category of destruction.

2) Expect heavy rain and flash flooding.  Rain and flooding are metaphysically associated with intense emotions, passion, actions motivated by heart-felt beliefs or inner sense of rightness, and occasionally panic.  In the coming week, watch for world news about high emotions, people expressing passion about what is "right," and a possible increase in expressions of prejudice.  Overall, people should be tending toward making decisions based on emotions or beliefs, and less on facts or rational process.

Applying Flossie personally:  A storm accompanies change.  Is there a change in my life I have been waiting for?  Have I felt stuck in a situation?  The unsettled nature of storminess makes changes more likely to occur.  What about the heavy rains?  Am I prepared for a period of increased passion and flow of emotion?  Am I prepared to channel this emotional energy in a positive direction?

All of these associations are only meaningful in a world in which everything is connected and somehow resonating together.  If you are able to look at it this way, this type of metaphorical approach to events might work for you.

Aloha,
Dr. Cari Bourette

Out with the Old...

Our world is about to change at a pace that has never been seen before in all of human history.  A paradigm shift has begun.  For many it will be painful, for some it will be exhilarating.  The extent of our turmoil may be measured by the persistence with which we cling to the pursuit of how it's always been or to our old ideas of how things should be.  Adaptability and flexibility are key virtues that will get each of us through the days ahead.  Cooperation and community will be hallmarks of success.

The work that MoodCompass has done in tracking disasters has been successful.  We have learned that it can be done, and have demonstrated that there is connection between ourselves and our world.  However, because of where we are at in history, it does not make sense to continue to focus on disasters at this point.  There's a good chance that people will find all the disaster-type events they hear about in the news in the coming years to be overwhelming, or at least something to tune out and turn away from.  We need to find a different focus, and are trying to figure out right now what that might be.

We have discontinued our tracking of social mood's connection with the stock market as well.  The market will be quickly on its way to irrelevancy in the months ahead, as it already is for most people now.

Transformation is magical.  It can be frightening when it happens to us and our world.  Yet, as we let go of what we have clung to, either by choice or by force, we make room for something unexpected and potentially beautiful.  That is our hope for the world, now, and in the years ahead.

 

Weather, Volatility, and Society -- Coincidence?

The National Weather Service on Tuesday is expecting a ramping up of severe weather this week:

"Severe thunderstorms will be possible farther east as the week progresses due to a very unsettled weather pattern."

We have many times presented natural event outlooks based on social mood patterns.  This time we will present the same concept from the other side.  We have seen evidence over and over of a connection between weather, people, and events in general.  Given this weather forecast, watch for an increase in "unsettled" people.  If the pattern plays out as the Weather Service suspects, look for an increase in global stories about protests, riots, violence, market volatility, and natural events such as storms, earthquakes, and fires. 

Are we saying that the weather causes people's moods?  Are we saying people cause the weather?  Are we saying that U.S. weather causes global events?  Not exactly.  We are saying that there is a connection.  They are interdependent.  People and the events in the world are interdependent.  Let's watch this "very unsettled pattern" in our world this week and see how many faces it ends up displaying. 


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 6/13/2013:
Storm was not as bad as feared, so we would expect world news of this energy type to be unsettling, but not as destructive as it could have been. 

Headlines June 13-15, 2013:
Most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history
Dozens hurt in explosion at Louisiana chemical plant
1 dead, others hurt in new explosion in Louisiana
Turkey's protest situation critical
Stocks close out a volatile week
Thousands take to streets of Istanbul
Earthquake hits southern Mexico

Stopping Disaster

On June 2, we posted a warning of being in the Global Disaster Zone through June 10.  Then an amazing thing happened.  The following day, we moved out of the "zone."  Is that a coincidence?  Did the few hundred people who read the post respond in a way that a global disaster was prevented or delayed?  There's no way to know for sure whether a thing would have happened.  Today, the risk once again nears the critical zone.  Is there a way to stop or delay disaster?  Is it possible to repeat what happened after the June 2 post?

On the right side of the chart below, it can be seen that as of the 1st post, collective mood was just entering the "Global Disaster Zone," and then promptly left it as the blue line moved down the following day.  It began moving up again on Friday, June 7, which also meant an increasing risk of disaster type events.  While not large enough to be considered a disaster, a tragic event occurred, a mass shooting at Santa Monica College in California.  As of today, the disaster zone is getting quite near again.  What will happen this time?

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

In the Global Disaster Zone

The last time collective mood was in the Global Disaster Zone, there were the violent storms in the U.S. called Walda followed by the Boston Marathon event, the West Texas fertilizer plant explosion, and then devastating earthquakes in Iran and China.  Before that was a superstorm called Sandy.  What will happen this time?



Collective mood cycles from extreme disconnection from the events happening in the world around us (the news) to a reconciliation where we "wake up" to events that grab our attention or impact us at a deep emotional level.  Like a rubber band being stretched and released, the farther we go during the disconnection phase, the more impactful the reconciliation tends to be.

At the place we are in for about the next ten days, global disasters are more likely than not.  And because the source of this data is U.S. mood, it indicates when events especially impactful to people in the United States should occur.

The themes of events likely to occur at the hands of human beings are organized or directed violence and the experience of victimization or vulnerability.  This could also show up as social instability (e.g. angry protests) or market volatility (violent market moves).  Events likely to occur in Nature should reflect themes of fire and/or flood (e.g. volcanoes, violent storms, and possibly earthquakes).  There is also a background natural theme of epidemic, health, and mortality.

There are more details on the likely disasters in the previous two posts, so let's not belabor that here.  When disasters affect us personally they are tragic, but the point of this is not that we are all doomed.  The point is how amazing it is that our world is connected to us and we are to it.  Disasters are a built in way to get our attention and remind us that we have become disconnected again.  When the rubber band gets pulled to these extremes and released, we all get relatively more connected for a moment.  It would be a really cool thing if there was a time in our not too distant future that we could remind ourselves somehow before the disconnection was so great as to put these things in motion.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .
- - -
Update:
6/7/13: Santa Monica College Shooting leaves seven dead
 

Weather, Violence, and Americans

The way we collectively feel (social mood) goes through cycles relative to the news, or the events from "out there" that happen to us.  Sometimes we are really disconnected from the news and the events in it seem really severe compared to our lives and the world we experience.  The cycle then moves toward a place of reconnection where how we feel reflects what is happening in the world around us and the events that occur likewise resonate with how we have been feeling.

We are entering that reconnection phase right now, and for the next week or so, the mood we are in collectively and the events we read about in our world will be in sync.  This is true not just for events about people, but all events.  If we are collectively content, the weather will be generally pleasant, and there won't be a lot of horrible stories of people hurting people in the news.  However, if we are collectively agitated, we will hear of stories of agitated people striking out in random ways and of unstable, agitated weather creating havoc in people's lives.  If we are collectively ready to charge ahead in pursuit of our goals no matter who gets in the way (as the mood is reflecting), we may hear stories of organized violence, terrorist attacks or geopolitical escalation (increased war risk and/or carnage).  The way this primarily shows up in Nature is violent weather, floods, and volcanoes.  With the current pattern, earthquakes and fires would also not be uncommon.

If during these periods, social mood, the stories of people in the news, and the events of Nature are all closely related; and if none of these are the primary cause of the other, but all reflecting one interconnected expression; then by changing one, the others would change.  Even if we can change none of these directly, we can perhaps change ourselves.  For those of us wanting to participate, we can look at how we are pushing to move forward in our own lives.  Being ready to charge ahead is great, there is nothing wrong with a burst of directed action.  However, without understanding, communication or connection of some type with who or what we might be pushing aside or running over, this can become destructive.  The challenge for those who want to try this, is to find this balance in yourself, at least through mid-June.  See if the days you find this balance don't happen to be the days absent of stormy weather and angry or violent news stories.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Volatility, Escalation and Volcanoes: Global Mood thru June 10

The social mood through June 10 shows a push for action in a definite direction, for better or for worse.  There is a need for release of the tension that has been building up over the past few weeks.  People have chosen sides and are looking for outlets of expression. It is time to charge ahead!

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence events should be on the increase during this period.  Risk of terrorist activity is elevated.  Any significant event is more likely to be organized by a group or government than a "lone wolf" individual.  The risk of geopolitical escalation (i.e. war risk), is higher than usual.

World markets may display increased instability and volatility.

Epidemic factors are elevated.  There may be concerns with disease, health, or mortality.  The China bird flu or some other issue may come back into the forefront.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated; natural disaster risk is on the rise from low levels.

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern would reflect the theme of "energy release" and secondarily "liquid."   Events associated with this pattern are volcanoes, floods, violent storms, fires, and earthquakes.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .
- - - -
Examples of this fiery mood type in the news:
5/31/13: Brawl erupts at Ohio kindergarten
5/31/13: Angeles National Forest Fire grows to 1400 acres
5/31/13: More deadly Oklahoma tornadoes
5/31/13: Four Houston firefighters killed in massive hotel fire

Volatile World Markets:
5/30/13: Rising volatility fuels push to lower risk

New Disease Concerns:
6/1/13: Frozen berry mix sparks hepatitis A outbreak
6/1/13: Why new MERS virus is scary

Energized and Agitated: Global Mood thru June 2.

The social mood through June 2 shows a transition in progress from manic overconfidence in economic recovery to a period of "bad news."  Yet for now, people are ready for action, and for conquering their world. 

There is also a need for release of the tension that has been building up over the past few weeks.  People have chosen sides and are looking for outlets of expression. Some of  the tension may be released by focusing on events "out there," meaning international in origin or even a natural event.

World markets may begin to show increased instability or volatility at this time.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated; natural disaster risk is rising from low levels.   

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, volcanoes, violent storms, and fires.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

- - -
Update 5/20/13: Two mile wide tornado kills at least 51 near Oklahoma City.

This is what was published on our webpage on 5/19/13 regarding natural events:

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern would reflect the theme of Nature vs. Civilization and "energy release", They are likely to "target" populated areas and /or cause disruption to power, communications, transportation, or food supply.  Events associated with this pattern are volcanoes, earthquakes, violent storms, and fires.

 

Tragedy, Awe, and Acts of God

The violent storms that have just hit North Texas have left tragedy in their wake; lives have been lost and dreams shattered.  The details are very sad, yet it's possible from a distance to experience a sense of awe and wonder at how the Universe works in the midst of such tragic events.

In the work with the MoodCompass Project we see that on a societal level, that tragic events or disasters may not  be random.  There is a theme or pattern that occurs in social mood that often happens just before a natural disaster such as this.  We call this particular pattern "Nature vs. Civilization."  This is what we said on our webpage on May 14:

"The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern would reflect the theme of Nature vs. Civilization, i.e. they are likely to "target" populated areas and /or cause disruption to power, communications or transportation.  The risk for damage from natural events is low as of May 14, but may suddenly spike higher during this period [May 14-19]."

On the morning of May 15, using only social mood data from Google Hot Trends and top U.S. news stories, our Natural Event indicator spiked to "serious damage possible today in the U.S."  The tornadoes hit that evening.  According to CNN, most of the fatalities occurred when the storm struck a Habitat for Humanity neighborhood.  Most of the 120 homes were destroyed. 

When this type of mood pattern occurs, it often looks like Nature is "aiming" for cities or for necessary aspects of civilization such as transportation, communications or food production.  To see this pattern and then read the quote below from the CNN article may make one pause and wonder about the nature of Nature:

"The National Weather Service warned that a mile-wide tornado reported by spotters had shifted its track and was moving 'right at the city of Cleburne,' a community of about 15,000 people in North Texas."

What would it mean if there was some type of relationship between things we don't normally consider related or connected?  What if on large scales, events that have been considered random have an order, purpose or pattern to them? 

The individual losses are tragic.  Yet, when one steps back and looks at these things from a larger perspective, one can be filled with awe and wonder.  Days before this tragic tornado outbreak occurred that was "aimed" right at the city of Cleburne or right at the heart of a subdivision, the collective mood of U.S. society foretold the possibility of a "Nature vs. Civilization" event.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Building Global Tension through May 19

Global mood through May 19 reflects a theme of polarization or "good guys" vs. "bad guys."  While tensions are running high, and ideologies appearing irreconcilable, there may actually be a drop in reports of mass violence incidents.  There may even be a sense of collective euphoria or irrational exuberance as if the troubles of the world may be about to be solved.

Some of this tension should be released in a wave of increased activity and violence after May 19.

Epidemic factors are still somewhat elevated, but less pressing.  There may be continued concerns with disease, health, or mortality.  The China bird flu may continue to be a background issue.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Mass Violence Risk Way Up thru May 13

Social mood shows a global risk of mass violence through May 13.  People are frustrated, angry, and ready to take whatever action they deem necessary.  Protests are on the upswing, and any could easily turn violent with the current mood configuration. 

Collective mood is beginning to transition from the "lone wolf" motif toward more organized violent activities.  This would include government initiated violence.

Epidemic factors are also on the increase.  This is associated with concerns of disease, health, and/or mortality.  This could reflect a separate focus or be a concurrent theme along with expressed violence (e.g. poison, biologicals, etc.)


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Update:
5/5/13: Thousands of Islamist Protesters violently demand anti-blasphemy laws
5/12/13: 19 people shot at New Orleans Mother's Day parade

Another Disaster in the Making?

Since July 2012, there have been five major tragic events in the U.S.  Each of these disasters have followed a three-step process from inception to manifestation.  Looking at just step one and manifestation, we will be able to see just how close we are getting to beginning the process toward the next U.S. disaster.

 

Looking at disasters on a societal level, this chart shows the relationship between the events in the news and social mood (derived from mood in top U.S. news stories vs. Google Hot Trends).  In this continuous pattern of increasing scale disasters, a line is crossed that begins the process of manifestation of the next tragic event.  We are calling this the "karma point."  Crossing this is step one of three toward the next tragic event.  It is a point of maximum separation or disconnection between where we are at in our experience (as a whole) compared with the events showing up in the news.  After this point of maximum distancing of ourselves from what is going on, a rebalancing process ensues.  A tragic event occurs near the culmination of this, and we are for a brief moment reconnected with the news and with the rest of society. 

It is interesting how quickly after the Boston Marathon event that we collectively moved to distance ourselves from the news and those bad things "out there."  Will we continue forward and cross the karma line in the next few days, ushering in the process of the next event?  Is it possible we could pause for a moment and look at the things in our own lives that are destructive to ourselves and to the world?  Would we dare change one little thing?  If only a few of us stopped to look at the destructive potential in ourselves, could it make a difference?  Is it possible to stop the next disaster from taking shape, at least for the moment? 

For a more detailed description of the process of disaster formation, see Disaster: Society's Shadow.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

More Violence with a Toxic Overlay through May 3

Social Mood shows an emphasis on ideology and an increased willingness to sacrifice for a higher purpose.  This combined with a continuing high global risk of violence and terrorist activity is concerning.  Factors associated with mayhem and unrest are also on the rise.

Another trend of interest is a sharp rise in epidemic factors.  This can correspond with increased interest in disease, sickness, and mortality.  The China bird flu may become more of a serious concern this week.  This trend may also correspond with poisons, toxins, or environmental destruction.  It would be best to monitor news updates to see how this will express itself.

While violence and terrorism factors remain elevated, it is unlikely that a major attack will occur on U.S. soil.  Should there be any incidents, the targets with the highest likelihood are Russia, Europe, the United States, and E. Asia.

The risk for natural disasters should continue to decline and remain at low levels.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

- - -
Update:
4/28/13 4 people stabbed in Albuquerque church
5/1/13   May Day rally turns violent in Seattle

Flooding Worries, but little Risk of Natural Disaster

In the Midwest, people have been watching rivers already at flood stage, threatened by rains yesterday and today.  There have been evacuations, and levees are being carefully watched for possible breaches.

For the past few days, natural disaster risk has not risen, it has been dropping.  Just a week ago, U.S. damage risk was at "serious" levels and global risk at "disaster." Yet, at this point, it would be highly unlikely for a serious natural disaster to occur within the U.S. and there is only a very small chance that one would happen anywhere in the world. 

Just a reminder, we are not out of the woods for human-caused disasters.  There could still be another big one in the next few days.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Natural Disasters' Relationship to Social Mood: How we chart it

In a recent conversation with a university dept. head, it was expressed that the meteorology dept. was concerned about possible catastrophic tornadoes in the early spring this year in the Midwest.  We were able to tell him that while we were watching for the next big U.S. disaster in the early spring, that the risk of it being a natural disaster was low.  However, close to April 9 there would be a greater risk for a natural event.  As it turned out, those big storms that blew across the U.S. (Walda) were the most powerful on April 8-10. Yet, we told him this before Walda even had a name.  How was this possible?

 

We get social mood from Google Hot Trends.  This tells us where people are at.  We also measure the mood reflected in current events via top U.S. news stories, and its relation to social mood.  Before a disaster occurs, of any sort, there is a process that we have found always occurs.  Basically, where people are at and where the news is at reaches a maximum divergence, then a process begins that brings it all back together.  Disasters, whether natural or human caused are a primary means of things getting in sync again.  We can't talk about why without getting into metaphysical supposition. Yet, we have a method that makes this process repeatable, observable and quantifiable. 

The above chart is derived from the relationship of entropy and its opposite phimation,*  and their divergence between social mood and the news.  We quantify this in the way we categorize the social mood data that we gather. When entropy in the news  (vs. where people are at) is sufficient and then phimation surpasses it, that means a natural disaster is likely. In the  above chart, the light yellow range (45-55%) will likely not do much damage in the U.S., but may manifest in serious natural event damage elsewhere (e.g. the recent Iran earthquake).  In the middle orange range (55-70%), there will likely be some serious damage, but it won’t be seen as a national “disaster” (e.g. Walda); also it may manifest as a natural disaster outside of the U.S.. The top red range (>70%) indicates events that will be experienced as natural disasters in the U.S. are almost certain; risk for major natural disasters elsewhere would also be very high. 

This is all based on a recent breakthrough we had on the nature of disasters in late February, which has given us so much more to work with. Hope that helps to clarify our approach and the connection between disasters and social mood.  For more on this recent breakthrough, check out the presentation: Disaster: Society's Shadow.

 

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .


* Phimation as the self-organizing principle or force opposing entropy in complex systems was first used by Robert Prechter.

Earthquakes and Violence: A Path to Vulnerability - Global Mood thru April 25

Global Violence Warning: According to social mood changes, there is an extreme risk of terrorist activity and/or geopolitical escalation on a global scale after April 17.


The social mood through April 25 reflects aggression, ideological warfare, and sacrifice for a "higher purpose." People want action, and are willing to take matters into their own hands if necessary.  The Boston Marathon attack is one example of this, but the social mood signature gets even more extreme after April 17.

The clues we get about the type of events come from MoodCompass type NE- "victim of unprovoked attack" or "vulnerable."  Also, U.S. social mood continues to be extremely manic, overconfident, and optimistic in spite of the destruction of Walda, in spite of mass stabbing at a Texas college, and in spite of the more recent events in Boston.  We can stand together proudly and affirm that this is the resilient "American Spirit," however, the mood shows the type of extremity that occurs when it is grasping at straws to hang in there.  A change is coming.

This is a global alert, and this might manifest in events in Europe, in the U.S., or elsewhere.  There are likely to be direct or indirect economic consequences of the events.  Currently, terrorist activity, or violence propagated by disturbed individuals or fringe groups is more likely than new warfare by geopolitical powers, but that could change during the alert period.

There is a high risk for significant natural events during this period.  The types most associated with this configuration are earthquakes, violent storms, and wildfires.  If there are any large volcanic eruptions, globally, that will indicate the shift has occurred that makes warfare more likely than a terrorist attack.

Whether violence or earthquakes or some other destabilizing set of events, the net result to balance out the social mood and deflate this potential for increasing scale disasters is clear.  The time of the unfettered manic mood needs to come to a close, spending and consumption need to slow, and focus needs to shift from never-ending expansion to more immediate needs of food on the table, safety, family and community.  The kinds of nurturing, community-oriented behaviors that people displayed in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon event was a start.  It certainly would be less destructive if we as a society were to move in this direction easily, and not through the darker version of "vulnerability to unprovoked attack," or some other type of victimization.  For now, the mood signature is saying, "victim" is the more likely path.  Perhaps this will change.  Perhaps we can do our part to change it.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Global Scale Crises thru April 25

Collective mood indicates escalating global instability and economic crises, especially after April 17.  Today's stock market tumble was the sound of distant thunder as a larger storm approaches.

Instability may be exacerbated by ideological conflict.  There is an increased risk for protests, mass violence, and terrorist activity.  There is a higher than usual geopolitical risk for what would be experienced societally as an "unprovoked" attack.  Unusual or surprise events are likely.

Social mood depicts the shape of the crises to be primarily around economic issues and the markets, as well as other events that lead to an increasing sense of vulnerability and risk aversion.  Tenacious optimism and "animal spirits" are likely to fade as dollars and market points disappear.  People should become less certain about the future, less willing to spend, and possibly less willing to venture far from home.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

- - -
Update
4/15/13: The Boston Marathon terrorist attack today is another very loud "rumble of thunder."
4/17/13: Deadly quake hits Iran / Pakistan
4/18/13: Up to 40 dead in Texas fertilizer plant explosion
              More mayhem in Boston: MIT officer shot
4/20/13: Over 150 dead, thousands injured in Sichuan, China quake
               Week in review: Across America, Chaos, Horror, and Hope
4/24/13: Flash Crash: 4 minute stock market plunge wipes out $200 million in value
4/25/13: Over 250 die in Bangladeshi building collapse
 

Are we done with disasters?

With this past alert period (April 2-11) we experienced a combination of two U.S. events that could have been much worse than they were. From April 8-11 was the fiercest impact of Walda. There were 3 official fatalities, some buildings destroyed and some roofs blown off, but it could have been worse. On April 9, there were 14 people stabbed at a college in Texas, yet no one was killed.

Both of these events matched the type of events in the series of major U.S. tragedies since July 2012 (Aurora, CO theater, Libya ambassador, Hurricane Sandy, and Sandy Hook), and both reflected the MoodCompass event types we were watching for. Yet, neither by itself was as severe as the other items in the series. There are two possible conclusions we can draw from this:
1) Two half-disasters can take the place of one big one.
2) This again was not "the big one" and something else will have to happen to relieve pressure and restore balance.

While we have to allow that a larger, more impactful event is still on its way, we are going to assume conclusion 1) for now, and that this particular balancing is over. However, there is still a larger imbalance that has remained mostly untouched for many months, even in the presence of the tragic U.S. events that have been happening. Is this more of a global imbalance that will require a global resolution? We will be keeping a close watch on that.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 4/15/13: The Boston Marathon terrorist attack today confirmed, unfortunately, that it was #2 above.  This adds Boston Marathon to the growing list of U.S. tragedies above.

New Info on April 2-11 U.S. Crisis Type

The MoodCompass Type of the event expected was E SE, and has shifted to E NE.  We now have to look at two possible scenarios.

Scenario 1:  The event(s) could come as a one-two punch including aspects of both MoodCompass types E SE and E NE, following how the mood shifts developed in phase 3.  E SE goes with violent protests, mayhem, terrorist activity, and unusual or surprising events.  It is more likely to be initiated by a lone disturbed individual or fringe group than a geopolitical entity (government).  E NE goes with domestic issues, the economy and diplomacy.  All together, this could mean a surprise event, followed by an economic impact.

Natural disasters associated with E SE are earthquakes and violent storms (including cyclones or high winds).  Natural events associated with E NE would be hail or snow storms, and cyclones.  The probability of the currently developing U.S. event being a natural disaster will rise substantially near the end of this period. 

Scenario 2: The event(s) take on MoodCompass type E which is associated with communications, information, the internet, etc.  It can also be associated with deception or with money.  It is difficult to imagine an information type disaster more emotionally impactful than the Sandy Hook shooting, but we have to allow for this possibility.  The types of natural events associated with type E are major storms and high winds.  The probability of the currently developing U.S. event being a natural disaster will rise substantially near the end of this period. 

To summarize the latest information beyond the two scenarios above:

1) Likely time window for the next major U.S. crisis in the series that began July 2012 (i.e. Aurora, CO., Libya Ambassador, Hurricane Sandy, and Sandy Hook) is April 2-11.  The most likely period is April 4-9.  Update 4/8/13... natural  event risk surpassing human caused risk today.

2) The event might or might not originate from outside of the U.S.  If the event originates in the United States, the most likely region for it to occur is West/Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the deep South.

3) As the events in the series are of increasing subjective impact, there may or may not be more casualties than the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, but it should have a larger emotional impact for most people in the U.S.

During this period, there is a very high risk globally, for the types of events listed in either scenario one or two above.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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News on actual events reflecting the E SE / E NE collective mood type during the alert period:
4/9/13 Snow, tornado threat mix in Spring weather tango
           Texas college stabbing: 14 injured, 2 in critical condition
4/10/13 Gunman killed after holding five Georgia firemen hostage
              Man calmly walks into Home Depot and saws both arms down to bone
             Update on the unusual Winter Storm Walda
4/11/13  Storm update; 2 dead, State of Emergency in MO
4/12/13 Storm update; 3 dead, thousands w/o power in Midwest and Deep South

Next U.S. Disaster Window: April 2-11

The next major U.S. disaster is likely about a week away.  Over the last few weeks, we have been discussing a next in the series of increasing scale U.S. tragedies (i.e. Aurora, CO., Libya Ambassador, Hurricane Sandy, and Sandy Hook).  Our measuring stick is a quantification of the relationship between U.S. social mood as found in Google Hot Trends and the context society finds itself in and is creating (U.S. news).  Latest information puts the event occurring April 2-11, with the most likely timeframe as April 4-9. 

This next tragedy has been in phase 3 of 3 of its creation since March 17.  There was a preliminary wave in mid-March, which manifested in unusual and sad stories, but with no sign of the "pressure release" that would allow us to consider phase 3 as completed.

To summarize the latest information:

1) MoodCompass Type is E SE.  This goes with violent protests, mayhem, terrorist activity, and unusual or surprising events.  It is more likely to be initiated by a lone disturbed individual or fringe group than a geopolitical entity (government).  Natural disasters associated with this configuration are earthquakes and violent storms (including cyclones or high winds).  The currently developing U.S. event shows a low probability of being a natural disaster.

2) The event might or might not originate from outside of the U.S.  If the event originates in the United States, the most likely region for it to occur is West/Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the Northeastern U.S.

3) As the events in the series are of increasing subjective impact, there may or may not be more casualties than the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, but it should have a larger emotional impact for most people in the U.S.


During this period there is a very high risk globally, for the types of events listed in 1) above.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .





 

Not Korea, Not Now

According to the latest social mood data, it would be more likely that a next major event would be carried out by a lone disturbed individual than a more organized group.  Also, there is a higher likelihood for terrorist activity than a major geopolitical escalation.  For these reasons, we are not worried about N. Korea at this time. 

 

 

 



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Likely Location for a U.S. Event

While the MoodCompass Team got to be on the news for getting the location of the Japan earthquake/tsunami right in March of 2011, due to funding cuts and lack of personnel, we have had to devise less labor intensive methods for getting potential location data for future significant events.

If the event that still looks like it is preparing to show up, does indeed manifest, we would like to give a head's up to the most likely areas.  The method we are using to do this is still experimental, and we will need a few more incidents to verify that we are on the right track.  If a major tragic event originates in the United States in March or early April, the most likely region for it to occur is Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the Northeastern U.S., although it could occur in less likely places-- such is the nature of probability.  Looking at it globally, if it happened in March, it would most likely occur on the West coast of North America, Northern Africa, or Europe.  For an event that ends up manifesting in early April, we do not yet have sufficient data to say where the highest locations globally would be.

And, if the "storm clouds" dissipate and there is no event to be expected, we will be very happy to share that here.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Violence, Explosions, or Resolution?

The fifth major U.S. tragedy since July 2012 may be in the latter part of phase 3 of 3 in its development, but does it have to happen?  The social mood signature now resembles Sandy Hook about a week before the shooting.   There are also some commonalities with the mood just before the Libya Ambassador shooting.  An interesting situation occurs just before major events manifest: the mood begins to shift, reflecting the event about to happen.  It reflects the new mood that society is about to move toward and settle into.  It indicates a previously overextended mood is about to find balance.  The question arises as whether balance can be found without a major tragedy occurring.  Do these events perform some type of necessary function for society as a whole?

Should the social mood patterns play out as they have in the past year, the type of event that would be about to emerge, would be violent, explosive, and/or fiery, and would lead to people feeling more vulnerable.  There might or might not be more casualties than with Sandy Hook Elementary School, but it would have a higher emotional impact, i.e. be more shocking, unsettling, etc. to the average American.  According to the latest data, it would be more likely that the event would be carried out by a lone disturbed individual than a more organized group.  Also, there is a higher likelihood for terrorist activity than a major geopolitical escalation.  The event might or might not originate from outside of the U.S.
.
There are those of us who have been doing an experiment, to move in the direction of balance in our own lives, before the major event occurs.  The goal, is that through the focus and intention of a few, the tragic event might be lessened or even avoided.  The balancing mood represents a slowing down from an extended "manic" period.  It is less expansive, and more about immediate needs.  It would focus more on the people in one's immediate environment, and less on the perhaps hundreds of internet "friends" that one has never met and probably never will.  The mood is already partially shifting in this direction.  It is likely, over the next few weeks, that it will be resolved one way or another.  Is a tragedy necessary to complete this shift?  Can a disaster, this time, be avoided?  We will know soon enough.

The other question is whether a tragedy is necessary.  In a dysfunctional family, when things get excessively stressful, one or more members will act out to get the attention focused on them.  They may break things, act silly, hurt themselves, get violent, or get in trouble with the law.  Whatever unfortunate thing they do, it relieves the immediate stress in the family and life goes on for the group as a whole.  There has been a large and growing "disaster wave" in U.S. social mood since June 2012.  In the current series of tragic events (Aurora, CO theater shooting, Libya Ambassador shooting, Hurricane Sandy, Sandy Hook Elementary), is it that an individual has stepped in to re-unify a fractured society each time the stress of disconnection gets too extreme?  Had Hurricane Sandy not occurred exactly during a phase 3, would a person or group have stepped in?  Can society learn to find cohesion without these horrific events continuing?  One could hope that is possible.  Perhaps, some day soon, we will get to find out.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

U.S. Mood Shifting: Major Event Still Approaching

Last week's news stories were both surprising and sad, appropriately reflecting the collective mood.  However, they did very little to release the building pressure of a not yet realized major tragic event that is observable in U.S. social mood.  Phase 3 of 3 continues to unfold, and a grand finale appears to be waiting to grab our collective attention and shift our focus to a far less expansive mood than is currently experienced.  As was explained in a previous post, phase 3 means the manifestation is days away.

When a manic social mood starts to "break," unusual or chaotic events start to show up in the world "out there."  Some of last week's bizarre-tragic events were: an airport sign falling on a family, killing a ten year old; a baby shot in a stroller by two teens; seven Marines dying in a training exercise when a mortar exploded.  These are all U.S. events.  The U.S. manic mood is beginning to break.

Yet, as sad as all of last week's events were, they were not sufficient to achieve much more than a pause in the collective mood signature.  The "crisis signal" pertaining to March 16-23 was not the big one after all.  Phase 3 is not yet over.  The signal has shifted to a more complex pattern similar to the one observed just before the Sandy Hook Elementary School incident.

While this now complex mood signature looks a lot like what came just before Sandy Hook, what actually happens may end up being something very different.  Yet, it will be obvious when we experience it.  If somehow the mood patterns do something completely new and dissipate without a tragic event occurring, we will certainly be happy to share that.

Some of us at The Crow's Nest have been participating in an experiment to attempt to live the balance before events effectively create that.  The hope in doing this is that if enough people intentionally shifted their consciousness, perhaps the need for a violent or tragic balancing would be minimized.  There's information in previous posts on how you can participate too, if that's of interest to you.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

In Phase 3 of 3 of the Next Big U.S. Crisis, Now What?

Development of the next big tragic event to unite the U.S. (and possibly global) psyche for a brief moment is in phase 3 of 3.  That means two things 1) the event is within a few days away from manifesting, and 2) some information on the type of event is available.  As for the experiment on trying to participate on the side of balance this week before the balancing event occurred, it has been quite challenging thus far.

The first few days of the experiment went well.  Some of us took time to have picnics or take walks in natural settings, to cut down on any frivolous spending, and to remember to take deep breaths and stay grounded.  We were encouraged by the news that there was *almost* another college massacre in Indiana on March 18th, but for some reason the would be assailant only executed himself.  Did we have something to do with how that turned out?  Maybe, maybe not, but the possibility was encouraging.  Yet, in spite of our efforts, we quickly got caught up in the busy, hectic, manic social mood energy of the week, and found ourselves with twice as many activities that had to be done or appointments kept, etc. than is usual for us.  Slowing down this week, was like trying to swim upstream against a massive current.  Still, it has been interesting, thus far, to say the least.

From the information available going into phase 3, the crisis event(s), whatever they may be, should accomplish the following collective shift:

1) Move our attention away from domestic (U.S.) squabbling about numbers, budgets and related government issues.

2) Result in an increased collective feeling of vulnerability or helplessness.

The event(s) may be related to protests, mayhem, mass violence or some type of unusual “surprise” occurrence.  It may possibly be of an international origin, but not necessarily.  There is no evidence at this time of it being a natural disaster.

We will cautiously resume our experiment, trying again to go in the direction of the balancing until this shift has run its course.


If you are interested in more details on the current global mood and the "symptoms" that are likely to show up with it, please visit the MoodCompass Project webpage at  http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

It's a Crazy World this Week!

Global Mood This Week reflects chaos, confusion, and uncertainty.  People are contrarian and argumentative.  There is a high risk for unusual or surprising events.  For those who follow current events in the news, it may appear that the world is falling apart, or "crazy" in a big way.

You don't have to participate in the craziness!

When a manic social mood gets stretched as far as it can go, "the world" starts displaying extreme manic symptoms and a rebalancing occurs.  You can participate in the symptoms, or you can participate in the rebalancing.  It is possible, that if enough people intentionally participate in an other than manic focus, that the symptoms will be less severe as this configuration dissipates. 

Whether the news reveals the disturbing acts of an individual, group, or government; or an outbreak of natural events, it is symptomatic of a collective mood that has gotten too extreme in a direction and is seeking balance.  All natural systems seek balance.  When a society, even a global society, gets too out of touch with the rest of the elements in the system, balance happens.

Alternative Direction: if you would like to participate in the direction of balance for this particular week-- When you feel anxious or energetic, take a deep breath, slow down, and be still for a minute.  Don't spend money on anything extra or "frivolous."  Take a walk in a park or hang out in a forest or other natural setting.  Spend time without the cellphone or computer, aware of the people you are with, and/or the place where you are at.  Pay attention to your feelings; be with yourself.


If you are interested in more details on the current global mood and the "symptoms" that are likely to show up with it, please visit the MoodCompass Project webpage at  http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update
3/18/13: College student plots a massacre, then kills only self.
3/19/13: Nevada military depot mortar explosion kills seven Marines.
3/22/13: Baby shot dead in stroller in Georgia; two teens indicted.
              Airport sign falls on family in Alabama; kills 10 year old boy.
              Three marines dead, including shooter, at Quantico Base, Virginia.

Together We Can Transform Next Week’s Pain into Good

This post is a significant shift from past posts.  It is something positive we can do when faced with disaster prone periods.  Some will get this, some will find it absurd.  That's OK. 

Each day for the last few years, I have spent a few hours gathering data on global society, looking at changes in social mood and watching for possible warning signs of instability.  I have to admit there have been times I’ve wanted to throw in the towel and find something a bit more positive to pay attention to.  Recently, however, there has been a breakthrough in my research, and this has given me hope.  I have treated times of high risk of disasters as something to passively sit back and watch as they unfold.  The good news is that for many global short term problems, even when intense negativity is likely to show up in the news as natural disasters or human tragedy, WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE!  Without getting into all the details of the research right now, I would like to lay out a brief description of the immediate problem and how you can help. 

The problem: In my work, I have found that social mood changes can indicate major events, whether positive or negative, about 1-2 weeks ahead of the event.  For the period March 16 – 24, without intervention, the world is likely to be manifesting some extremely negative events.  News events are likely to be surprising, crazy, and destructive in a big way. 

The solution: Imagine that there is a certain type of energy that we as global society are manifesting too much of, or too loudly right now, and that we are so out of balance that something “out there” is likely to show up and try to rebalance that, whether that be a disturbed individual or group, or a natural event.  The more of us that intentionally participate in the rebalancing, in a healing, non-violent way, the less a drastic or violent solution will “show up.”  

For this week:  Here are some suggestions that you can do to participate in intentionally balancing the current imbalance.  Focus on these changes in yourself, not in the world.  Just this week, if you watch television, avoid zany comedies… turn on a drama instead.  Take a stroll in the woods or a calm natural setting if you are able.  Throughout the day when you are feeling especially energetic, take a deep breath and ground yourself.  If by chance you have “extra” money, put off any frivolous spending just for this week.  Pay attention to what you are feeling… be with yourself. 

I understand that global society is made up of a lot of people, but a little focused intention by just a few people can go a long way.  The actions of just a few of us can raise awareness and heal our world. 


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 3/18/13: College drop out was going to do a massacre, but only killed self.

Another U.S. Tragedy Unfolding: March 16-23

Recently, we announced a breakthrough in understanding the nature of disasters, or at least in the process of watching them develop and then manifest.  This is possible through observation and measurement of changes in U.S. social mood and current U.S. events in the news.  It appears that collectively, we may play a part in the direction that these tragic events eventually manifest, whether we are individually aware of that or not. 

The current wave of increasing scale events has displayed as the Aurora, Colorado theater shooting; the Libya ambassador shooting and Muslim uprising; superstorm Sandy; and the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting.  Currently, the next major event in this series of U.S. tragedies is preparing to reveal itself.  Data on social mood changes as of today, indicate that it is a week or two away from showing up.

The initial signal or phase 1 of 3 for the next in this series of increasing scale major U.S. events was observed on February 28.  This gave an initial estimated manifestation of March 17 - April 9.

Phase 2 of 3 is finishing up.  Information as of today narrowed the time estimate to March 16 - 23.

There will be information about the type of event when phase 3 begins, but that will be only a few days before the event occurs.

We are hopeful that at some point, this type of information could allow us to collectively shift course before such tragic events take place.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Breaking News: Do We Make Disasters? (video)

Collectively, we may be somehow participating in the making of the disasters that affect the country and world as a whole.  Disaster events of increasing scale are part of a continuous wave that began in June 2012.  As of March 3, 2013, the next U.S. event is on step 2 of a 3 step process.  Can something be done to avoid it?



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 3/5/13:
Next major U.S. event estimated between March 17 and April 9. Still in phase 2 of 3.

The Week Ahead: Feb 25, 2013

Global Mood This Week: Watch for increasing instability, volatility, and aggression for the week of February 25.

The Market Week Ahead:  Large moves are possible. Models show a short term trend change-- a choppy upward move in the stock market is most likely. If a market top is not already in place, it should be made this week.

Long term: The social mood trend has turned down. The market should be in the initial stages of a long term downtrend.  Increasing socioeconomic instability should follow.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Big Risk of Small Problems: Global Mood thru Feb 26

Social mood through February 26 reflects uncertainty, confusion, and the unexpected. People are contrarian and argumentative, making group efforts challenging.  Bad news seems to be on the rise, but is it really that bad?

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents are likely to continue to make headlines, however any fatalities should be relatively low in number*.

Epidemic factors are again decreasing. The flu should be less of a concern this period.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated. However, chances for major disasters are low.

Significant Natural Events: Risks for significant natural events are elevated, but no major disasters with high casualty count are expected*. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and fires.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of potential impact to U.S. society. Events of equivalent impact without fatalities are also possible (e.g. economic loss). Also, since U.S. social mood changes are the measure, if event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.

Market Downturn Confirmed (video)

Social Mood changes have confirmed that a significant downturn has begun. Indications that a global economic collapse that may be in progress are presented.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Confused & Surprised: Global Mood thru Feb 21, '13

Social mood through February 21 reflects uncertainty, confusion, and the unexpected. People are contrarian and argumentative, making group efforts challenging.

U.S. Disaster Alert:  Social mood changes indicate that an event perceived as a crisis, upheaval, or disaster is likely to occur Feb. 11-21 in or directly affecting the United States of America.

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents are likely to increase in frequency and in scale.

Epidemic factors are showing a slight increase. While a peak in the flu outbreak has likely already occurred, this could be an especially bad week.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated. 

Significant Natural Events: Risks for significant natural events are elevated. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and wildfires.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Examples of this social mood configuration in the news:
2/10-14: Carnival Triumph- "The cruise from hell"
2/15: Meteorite hits Russia with force of atomic bomb, about 1100 injured
2/19: 4 dead, including suspect, in Orange County shooting spree.
         Gas explosion ignites restaurant in Kansas City; dozens injured
2/20-21: Wall Street drops on growth concerns, fear index jumps
2/21: Shooting, fiery crash on Las Vegas strip leaves 3 dead