Weather, Violence, and Americans

The way we collectively feel (social mood) goes through cycles relative to the news, or the events from "out there" that happen to us.  Sometimes we are really disconnected from the news and the events in it seem really severe compared to our lives and the world we experience.  The cycle then moves toward a place of reconnection where how we feel reflects what is happening in the world around us and the events that occur likewise resonate with how we have been feeling.

We are entering that reconnection phase right now, and for the next week or so, the mood we are in collectively and the events we read about in our world will be in sync.  This is true not just for events about people, but all events.  If we are collectively content, the weather will be generally pleasant, and there won't be a lot of horrible stories of people hurting people in the news.  However, if we are collectively agitated, we will hear of stories of agitated people striking out in random ways and of unstable, agitated weather creating havoc in people's lives.  If we are collectively ready to charge ahead in pursuit of our goals no matter who gets in the way (as the mood is reflecting), we may hear stories of organized violence, terrorist attacks or geopolitical escalation (increased war risk and/or carnage).  The way this primarily shows up in Nature is violent weather, floods, and volcanoes.  With the current pattern, earthquakes and fires would also not be uncommon.

If during these periods, social mood, the stories of people in the news, and the events of Nature are all closely related; and if none of these are the primary cause of the other, but all reflecting one interconnected expression; then by changing one, the others would change.  Even if we can change none of these directly, we can perhaps change ourselves.  For those of us wanting to participate, we can look at how we are pushing to move forward in our own lives.  Being ready to charge ahead is great, there is nothing wrong with a burst of directed action.  However, without understanding, communication or connection of some type with who or what we might be pushing aside or running over, this can become destructive.  The challenge for those who want to try this, is to find this balance in yourself, at least through mid-June.  See if the days you find this balance don't happen to be the days absent of stormy weather and angry or violent news stories.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Volatility, Escalation and Volcanoes: Global Mood thru June 10

The social mood through June 10 shows a push for action in a definite direction, for better or for worse.  There is a need for release of the tension that has been building up over the past few weeks.  People have chosen sides and are looking for outlets of expression. It is time to charge ahead!

Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence events should be on the increase during this period.  Risk of terrorist activity is elevated.  Any significant event is more likely to be organized by a group or government than a "lone wolf" individual.  The risk of geopolitical escalation (i.e. war risk), is higher than usual.

World markets may display increased instability and volatility.

Epidemic factors are elevated.  There may be concerns with disease, health, or mortality.  The China bird flu or some other issue may come back into the forefront.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated; natural disaster risk is on the rise from low levels.

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern would reflect the theme of "energy release" and secondarily "liquid."   Events associated with this pattern are volcanoes, floods, violent storms, fires, and earthquakes.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .
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Examples of this fiery mood type in the news:
5/31/13: Brawl erupts at Ohio kindergarten
5/31/13: Angeles National Forest Fire grows to 1400 acres
5/31/13: More deadly Oklahoma tornadoes
5/31/13: Four Houston firefighters killed in massive hotel fire

Volatile World Markets:
5/30/13: Rising volatility fuels push to lower risk

New Disease Concerns:
6/1/13: Frozen berry mix sparks hepatitis A outbreak
6/1/13: Why new MERS virus is scary

Energized and Agitated: Global Mood thru June 2.

The social mood through June 2 shows a transition in progress from manic overconfidence in economic recovery to a period of "bad news."  Yet for now, people are ready for action, and for conquering their world. 

There is also a need for release of the tension that has been building up over the past few weeks.  People have chosen sides and are looking for outlets of expression. Some of  the tension may be released by focusing on events "out there," meaning international in origin or even a natural event.

World markets may begin to show increased instability or volatility at this time.

Globally, the likelihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated; natural disaster risk is rising from low levels.   

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, volcanoes, violent storms, and fires.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 5/20/13: Two mile wide tornado kills at least 51 near Oklahoma City.

This is what was published on our webpage on 5/19/13 regarding natural events:

Significant Natural Events:  The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern would reflect the theme of Nature vs. Civilization and "energy release", They are likely to "target" populated areas and /or cause disruption to power, communications, transportation, or food supply.  Events associated with this pattern are volcanoes, earthquakes, violent storms, and fires.

 

Tragedy, Awe, and Acts of God

The violent storms that have just hit North Texas have left tragedy in their wake; lives have been lost and dreams shattered.  The details are very sad, yet it's possible from a distance to experience a sense of awe and wonder at how the Universe works in the midst of such tragic events.

In the work with the MoodCompass Project we see that on a societal level, that tragic events or disasters may not  be random.  There is a theme or pattern that occurs in social mood that often happens just before a natural disaster such as this.  We call this particular pattern "Nature vs. Civilization."  This is what we said on our webpage on May 14:

"The types of natural events most associated with the current pattern would reflect the theme of Nature vs. Civilization, i.e. they are likely to "target" populated areas and /or cause disruption to power, communications or transportation.  The risk for damage from natural events is low as of May 14, but may suddenly spike higher during this period [May 14-19]."

On the morning of May 15, using only social mood data from Google Hot Trends and top U.S. news stories, our Natural Event indicator spiked to "serious damage possible today in the U.S."  The tornadoes hit that evening.  According to CNN, most of the fatalities occurred when the storm struck a Habitat for Humanity neighborhood.  Most of the 120 homes were destroyed. 

When this type of mood pattern occurs, it often looks like Nature is "aiming" for cities or for necessary aspects of civilization such as transportation, communications or food production.  To see this pattern and then read the quote below from the CNN article may make one pause and wonder about the nature of Nature:

"The National Weather Service warned that a mile-wide tornado reported by spotters had shifted its track and was moving 'right at the city of Cleburne,' a community of about 15,000 people in North Texas."

What would it mean if there was some type of relationship between things we don't normally consider related or connected?  What if on large scales, events that have been considered random have an order, purpose or pattern to them? 

The individual losses are tragic.  Yet, when one steps back and looks at these things from a larger perspective, one can be filled with awe and wonder.  Days before this tragic tornado outbreak occurred that was "aimed" right at the city of Cleburne or right at the heart of a subdivision, the collective mood of U.S. society foretold the possibility of a "Nature vs. Civilization" event.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Building Global Tension through May 19

Global mood through May 19 reflects a theme of polarization or "good guys" vs. "bad guys."  While tensions are running high, and ideologies appearing irreconcilable, there may actually be a drop in reports of mass violence incidents.  There may even be a sense of collective euphoria or irrational exuberance as if the troubles of the world may be about to be solved.

Some of this tension should be released in a wave of increased activity and violence after May 19.

Epidemic factors are still somewhat elevated, but less pressing.  There may be continued concerns with disease, health, or mortality.  The China bird flu may continue to be a background issue.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Mass Violence Risk Way Up thru May 13

Social mood shows a global risk of mass violence through May 13.  People are frustrated, angry, and ready to take whatever action they deem necessary.  Protests are on the upswing, and any could easily turn violent with the current mood configuration. 

Collective mood is beginning to transition from the "lone wolf" motif toward more organized violent activities.  This would include government initiated violence.

Epidemic factors are also on the increase.  This is associated with concerns of disease, health, and/or mortality.  This could reflect a separate focus or be a concurrent theme along with expressed violence (e.g. poison, biologicals, etc.)


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Update:
5/5/13: Thousands of Islamist Protesters violently demand anti-blasphemy laws
5/12/13: 19 people shot at New Orleans Mother's Day parade

Another Disaster in the Making?

Since July 2012, there have been five major tragic events in the U.S.  Each of these disasters have followed a three-step process from inception to manifestation.  Looking at just step one and manifestation, we will be able to see just how close we are getting to beginning the process toward the next U.S. disaster.

 

Looking at disasters on a societal level, this chart shows the relationship between the events in the news and social mood (derived from mood in top U.S. news stories vs. Google Hot Trends).  In this continuous pattern of increasing scale disasters, a line is crossed that begins the process of manifestation of the next tragic event.  We are calling this the "karma point."  Crossing this is step one of three toward the next tragic event.  It is a point of maximum separation or disconnection between where we are at in our experience (as a whole) compared with the events showing up in the news.  After this point of maximum distancing of ourselves from what is going on, a rebalancing process ensues.  A tragic event occurs near the culmination of this, and we are for a brief moment reconnected with the news and with the rest of society. 

It is interesting how quickly after the Boston Marathon event that we collectively moved to distance ourselves from the news and those bad things "out there."  Will we continue forward and cross the karma line in the next few days, ushering in the process of the next event?  Is it possible we could pause for a moment and look at the things in our own lives that are destructive to ourselves and to the world?  Would we dare change one little thing?  If only a few of us stopped to look at the destructive potential in ourselves, could it make a difference?  Is it possible to stop the next disaster from taking shape, at least for the moment? 

For a more detailed description of the process of disaster formation, see Disaster: Society's Shadow.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .