Friday, December 28, 2012

Hawaii Panic Ahead (12/29 to 1/5/13)

Hawaii social mood has shifted to a panic configuration indicating a local crisis is just ahead.  As previously posted, we have been concerned with indicators in the state of Hawaii, and have been watching for the signal that would confirm the direction things were heading from the extremely serious tone that has been observed since early December.

The indicated mood can be described as "panic" or "passion."
The type of event signaled can be described as "crisis," "upheaval," or "disaster."

For more information about potential casualties, the current global outlook, or the MoodCompass Project see

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1/5/13- Windy conditions cause damage and destruction across Hawaii
             Violent winds across islands take toll on roofs and trees

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Destructive Action - Social Mood thru Dec. 31, 2012

According to changes detected in social mood patterns, destructive acts (or interventions) by governments, institutions, and organization are more likely than usual. The social mood is centered around destruction and disintegration. Polarization of worldviews is very high, and cooperation on any large scale endevour is near impossible.

The chances of a crisis or disaster-type event are elevated, generating a disaster watch.  However, a major disaster is not anticipated within the United States during this period* (see chart)

Destructive Natural events are possible during this period. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable/destructive weather, volcanoes, and toxic environments.
For more information on the MoodCompsss Project, see:

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of potential impact to U.S. society. An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. economic loss). Also, since U.S. social mood changes are the measure, if the event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.

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News Examples of "Destructive Action":
12/24/2012:  Two firefighters shot and killed while responding to house fire.
12/25/2012: Messy, dangerous Christmas weather
12/27/2012:  Woman sleeping on Los Angeles bench set on fire
                          Man pushed to death in front of subway train
                         Winter weather death toll (U.S.) at least 15

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

When Depressed Social Mood Explodes

Since early December, the social mood as obserbed in Hawaii's people as well as local current events has been extremely somber, similar to how the mood of a person experiencing a severe depression would appear.  The peak of this seems to have been yesterday's news of the death of the well-respected, long term senator, Daniel Inouye.

The MoodCompass team has been watching for signs of a shift in this social depression.  When a person has a serious depression and then begins to come out of it, whether through medication, treatment, or time, they are briefly in heightened danger.  All the strong emotions that have for the most part been "depressed" become energized and may show up in bouts of rage, destructive behavior, even suicidal behavior.

Today, marks the first sign in weeks of a shift from that extremely serious, depressed social mood configuration.  Where it goes next is crucial.  Does it take on the bipolar configuration and move to a manic pattern?  Does it become rageful or destructive?  Or, will it move to a more benign, life-affirming configuration?

Because we are currently on alert for a potential Hawaiian crisis, the possibility of a developing  explosive mood (or event) is something to pay careful attention to.

For more information on the MoodCompass project, see

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Global Mood: Destructive

The recent surge in mass violence episodes by individual actors should begin to subside after the 15th, but continues to remain slightly elevated. Destructive acts (or interventions) by governments and institutions are more likely than usual.

Destructive Natural events are possible during this period. The types most associated with the current pattern are volcanoes, earthquakes, unstable/destructive weather, and toxic environments.

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see

Friday, December 14, 2012

Hawaii Disaster Warning, Update

Alert period: December 15 - 22, 2012

To Recap:

Changes in observed Hawaiian social mood has generated a signal indicating an event that should be perceived as crisis, disaster, or upheaval by the people of Hawaii is likley to occur within the alert period.

Such events are often related to violence, unrest, or natural disasters.  The local factor related to protests and mass violence is slightly elevated, but not extreme.

The charts below show the "temperature" or intensities of each of several risk factors of U.S. social mood which are also proportionate globally.  If the Hawaii event is related to mass violence, the event or precipitating event would most likely occur  by December 15.

Should a natural disaster be the primary source of the indicated crisis, the most likely type would be a tsunami or volcanic eruption.

Below is the current U.S. damage risk "thermometer" which gives a potential casualty level per type of damage that the social mood would support occuring within the U.S.*

*An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. economic loss).

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see

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Update: January 3, 2013:
The "Hawaii Disaster" during this period was apparently the death of well-respected, long time senator Daniel Inoyue.  Besides the emotional impact, according to the Hawaii budget head, economically, his death will result in an "economic cliff" for Hawaii, bigger than the federal fiscal cliff.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Update, Dec. '12 Hawaii Crisis Alert

A confirmation signal was generated by social mood changes in Hawaii that a disaster-type event or series of events is likely in the near future.  The subjective impact to Hawaiians of this event should be greater than the Aurora, CO theater shooting or the Libya ambassador killing was experienced by most Americans.  The event(s) may be described as crisis, disaster, or upheaval.

It should be noted that there is no U.S.-wide signal reflecting a disaster, crisis or upheaval.  Therefore, unless a U.S. signal is generated in the next few days, it is expected to be perceived by Hawaiians as a much more impactful event than is perceived by the average American.

The charts below show the "temperature" or intensity of the risk factors for Hawaii and for the United States as a whole.


 For more information on the MoodCompass Project see:

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Crisis Warning, Hawaii Dec. 2012

We are currently monitoring a disaster-type signal generated by changes in the social mood in Hawaii and are waiting for a secondary confirmation signal.  This would indicate a near future event or series of events that would be perceived by the people in Hawaii as a disaster, crisis, or  upheaval.  We will keep you posted, and will update with further details as we get them.