Earthquakes and Violence: A Path to Vulnerability - Global Mood thru April 25

Global Violence Warning: According to social mood changes, there is an extreme risk of terrorist activity and/or geopolitical escalation on a global scale after April 17.


The social mood through April 25 reflects aggression, ideological warfare, and sacrifice for a "higher purpose." People want action, and are willing to take matters into their own hands if necessary.  The Boston Marathon attack is one example of this, but the social mood signature gets even more extreme after April 17.

The clues we get about the type of events come from MoodCompass type NE- "victim of unprovoked attack" or "vulnerable."  Also, U.S. social mood continues to be extremely manic, overconfident, and optimistic in spite of the destruction of Walda, in spite of mass stabbing at a Texas college, and in spite of the more recent events in Boston.  We can stand together proudly and affirm that this is the resilient "American Spirit," however, the mood shows the type of extremity that occurs when it is grasping at straws to hang in there.  A change is coming.

This is a global alert, and this might manifest in events in Europe, in the U.S., or elsewhere.  There are likely to be direct or indirect economic consequences of the events.  Currently, terrorist activity, or violence propagated by disturbed individuals or fringe groups is more likely than new warfare by geopolitical powers, but that could change during the alert period.

There is a high risk for significant natural events during this period.  The types most associated with this configuration are earthquakes, violent storms, and wildfires.  If there are any large volcanic eruptions, globally, that will indicate the shift has occurred that makes warfare more likely than a terrorist attack.

Whether violence or earthquakes or some other destabilizing set of events, the net result to balance out the social mood and deflate this potential for increasing scale disasters is clear.  The time of the unfettered manic mood needs to come to a close, spending and consumption need to slow, and focus needs to shift from never-ending expansion to more immediate needs of food on the table, safety, family and community.  The kinds of nurturing, community-oriented behaviors that people displayed in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon event was a start.  It certainly would be less destructive if we as a society were to move in this direction easily, and not through the darker version of "vulnerability to unprovoked attack," or some other type of victimization.  For now, the mood signature is saying, "victim" is the more likely path.  Perhaps this will change.  Perhaps we can do our part to change it.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Global Scale Crises thru April 25

Collective mood indicates escalating global instability and economic crises, especially after April 17.  Today's stock market tumble was the sound of distant thunder as a larger storm approaches.

Instability may be exacerbated by ideological conflict.  There is an increased risk for protests, mass violence, and terrorist activity.  There is a higher than usual geopolitical risk for what would be experienced societally as an "unprovoked" attack.  Unusual or surprise events are likely.

Social mood depicts the shape of the crises to be primarily around economic issues and the markets, as well as other events that lead to an increasing sense of vulnerability and risk aversion.  Tenacious optimism and "animal spirits" are likely to fade as dollars and market points disappear.  People should become less certain about the future, less willing to spend, and possibly less willing to venture far from home.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update
4/15/13: The Boston Marathon terrorist attack today is another very loud "rumble of thunder."
4/17/13: Deadly quake hits Iran / Pakistan
4/18/13: Up to 40 dead in Texas fertilizer plant explosion
              More mayhem in Boston: MIT officer shot
4/20/13: Over 150 dead, thousands injured in Sichuan, China quake
               Week in review: Across America, Chaos, Horror, and Hope
4/24/13: Flash Crash: 4 minute stock market plunge wipes out $200 million in value
4/25/13: Over 250 die in Bangladeshi building collapse
 

In Phase 3 of 3 of the Next Big U.S. Crisis, Now What?

Development of the next big tragic event to unite the U.S. (and possibly global) psyche for a brief moment is in phase 3 of 3.  That means two things 1) the event is within a few days away from manifesting, and 2) some information on the type of event is available.  As for the experiment on trying to participate on the side of balance this week before the balancing event occurred, it has been quite challenging thus far.

The first few days of the experiment went well.  Some of us took time to have picnics or take walks in natural settings, to cut down on any frivolous spending, and to remember to take deep breaths and stay grounded.  We were encouraged by the news that there was *almost* another college massacre in Indiana on March 18th, but for some reason the would be assailant only executed himself.  Did we have something to do with how that turned out?  Maybe, maybe not, but the possibility was encouraging.  Yet, in spite of our efforts, we quickly got caught up in the busy, hectic, manic social mood energy of the week, and found ourselves with twice as many activities that had to be done or appointments kept, etc. than is usual for us.  Slowing down this week, was like trying to swim upstream against a massive current.  Still, it has been interesting, thus far, to say the least.

From the information available going into phase 3, the crisis event(s), whatever they may be, should accomplish the following collective shift:

1) Move our attention away from domestic (U.S.) squabbling about numbers, budgets and related government issues.

2) Result in an increased collective feeling of vulnerability or helplessness.

The event(s) may be related to protests, mayhem, mass violence or some type of unusual “surprise” occurrence.  It may possibly be of an international origin, but not necessarily.  There is no evidence at this time of it being a natural disaster.

We will cautiously resume our experiment, trying again to go in the direction of the balancing until this shift has run its course.


If you are interested in more details on the current global mood and the "symptoms" that are likely to show up with it, please visit the MoodCompass Project webpage at  http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Angry and Active, Global Mood thru Jan 28, '13

The social mood for Jan 25-28 reflects a desire for action, and a willingness to take action.  People are angry and argumentative, making cooperative efforts challenging.  Incidents of unrest, protests, and workplace violence, as well as other mass violence incidents should continue to grab news headlines.

Epidemic factors, while still elevated,  are beginning to show a decrease.  A peak in the flu outbreak may be occuring.

Globally, the liklihood for crises, upheaval, and disasters is elevated.  However, no major disaster is anticipated.

Significant Natural Events: While no major disasters are expected, there is an elevated risk for significant natural events. The types most associated with the current pattern are volcanoes, earthquakes, unstable or violent weather, and wildfires.


For more information on the current outlook or The MoodCompass Project see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also join the MoodCompass Project on .


*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of potential impact to U.S. society. Events of equivalent impact without fatalities are also possible (e.g. economic loss). Also, since U.S. social mood changes are the measure, if  event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.

Hawaii Panic Ahead (12/29 to 1/5/13)

Hawaii social mood has shifted to a panic configuration indicating a local crisis is just ahead.  As previously posted, we have been concerned with indicators in the state of Hawaii, and have been watching for the signal that would confirm the direction things were heading from the extremely serious tone that has been observed since early December.

The indicated mood can be described as "panic" or "passion."
The type of event signaled can be described as "crisis," "upheaval," or "disaster."

For more information about potential casualties, the current global outlook, or the MoodCompass Project see http://moodcompass.com.

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Update:
1/5/13- Windy conditions cause damage and destruction across Hawaii
             Violent winds across islands take toll on roofs and trees

Hawaii Disaster Warning, Update

Alert period: December 15 - 22, 2012

To Recap:

Changes in observed Hawaiian social mood has generated a signal indicating an event that should be perceived as crisis, disaster, or upheaval by the people of Hawaii is likley to occur within the alert period.

Such events are often related to violence, unrest, or natural disasters.  The local factor related to protests and mass violence is slightly elevated, but not extreme.

The charts below show the "temperature" or intensities of each of several risk factors of U.S. social mood which are also proportionate globally.  If the Hawaii event is related to mass violence, the event or precipitating event would most likely occur  by December 15.

Should a natural disaster be the primary source of the indicated crisis, the most likely type would be a tsunami or volcanic eruption.

Below is the current U.S. damage risk "thermometer" which gives a potential casualty level per type of damage that the social mood would support occuring within the U.S.*

*An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. economic loss).

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com

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Update: January 3, 2013:
The "Hawaii Disaster" during this period was apparently the death of well-respected, long time senator Daniel Inoyue.  Besides the emotional impact, according to the Hawaii budget head, economically, his death will result in an "economic cliff" for Hawaii, bigger than the federal fiscal cliff.

 

Update, Dec. '12 Hawaii Crisis Alert

A confirmation signal was generated by social mood changes in Hawaii that a disaster-type event or series of events is likely in the near future.  The subjective impact to Hawaiians of this event should be greater than the Aurora, CO theater shooting or the Libya ambassador killing was experienced by most Americans.  The event(s) may be described as crisis, disaster, or upheaval.

It should be noted that there is no U.S.-wide signal reflecting a disaster, crisis or upheaval.  Therefore, unless a U.S. signal is generated in the next few days, it is expected to be perceived by Hawaiians as a much more impactful event than is perceived by the average American.

The charts below show the "temperature" or intensity of the risk factors for Hawaii and for the United States as a whole.

 



 For more information on the MoodCompass Project see: http://moodcompass.com.

Crisis Warning, Hawaii Dec. 2012

We are currently monitoring a disaster-type signal generated by changes in the social mood in Hawaii and are waiting for a secondary confirmation signal.  This would indicate a near future event or series of events that would be perceived by the people in Hawaii as a disaster, crisis, or  upheaval.  We will keep you posted, and will update with further details as we get them.

Violent-upheaval possible thru Oct. 22

Changes in social mood generated a new signal, creating the following alert:

 

 

There is a high risk for event(s) perceived as crisis, upheaval, or disaster especially between October 12-19. Casualty estimates are between 6 and 60*. 

 

There is an elevated risk for event(s) perceived as violent protests or terrorist activity especially between October 15-22.  A small number of casualties are possible*.

 

Because these signals overlap, they may be part of a single event or set of events, such as a violent-upheaval.

 

Significant natural events may occur during this period. If so, the types most associated with the current pattern are tornadoes (cyclones) and earthquakes.

 

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of expected impact to U.S. society. If the event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater. An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. market failure).

For more information on The MoodCompass Project see moodcompass.com.

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Update
10/17/12: Man held in NYC plot to blow up Federal Reserve
                Denver bar set on fire with five murder victims inside
10/18/12: Clashes erupt at Greek anti-austerity protests
                  Tornadoes leave thousands without power
                  Google filing error shocks investors
10/21/12:  Gunman shoots 7 at Wisconsin spa

Unrests, protests, but no disasters

Social Mood patterns indicate a drop in factors related to disaster, crisis and upheaval. Indicators of unrest and violent protests are still elevated.  So, globally, there may be some instances of unrest or protests through October 11, 2012.  However, widespread unrest or violence is unlikely.  Also, the likelihood of any major disaster is low. Enjoy the moment!

 

For more information see moodcompass.com.



 

All Sink or Swim Together - August 2011

Wall Street has been hanging in there, while more lose jobs and have trouble making ends meet. Resource shortages are becoming significant for a growing number of people in the world. The U.S. government has been playing an odd mix of hot potato and Russian roulette. While the immediate U.S. debt crisis will be resolved one way or another, the debt of overconsumption continues to run up to frightening levels, causing earth systems to become less able to support our destructive habits. The lack of balance between the “haves” and “have-nots,” and between what we take and give back to our planet, our only home, will not continue to remain unreconciled indefinitely. The teetering of the scales are beginning to become apparent.

Highlights: Denial continues by global leaders and general public ∙ U.S. government crisis, push for leadership ∙ Social agitation and increasing risk of violent outbreaks ∙ In Nature: Strong storms, excessive heat, and fires.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events: There are three major periods indicated for August--
August 2-8 Delusion and Denial
August 9-15 Panic
August 16-31 Transformation
(for more details, see the full version of MoodCompass)

Global natural events:
August 1 – 4 Lacking, sick and hot. Watch for more news stories of drought, famine, and heat.
August 5 – 16 Water and panic. Look for rain, storms, and nature-related panic.
August 17 – 26 Hot, destructive, and stormy. Watch for excessive heat, lightning, nature-related chaos, and fires.
August 27 – 31 Active, hot. Heat continues. Occasional storms. Elevated risk of volcanic eruption.

The above is an excerpt from the August 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

The U.S. Strikes Back - June 2011 Alert (video)

Highlights: Collective mood analysis indicates a dramatic change in global context associated with 1) A group or nation crossing a line, end of May. 2) The U.S. striking back in the month of June. Technical presentation illustrates.

Edge of a Cliff - May/June 2011 (video)

Candid discussion of the scale of events estimated to occur late May through June.

Terrorism, War & Asia - May 2011 Alert (video)

Analysis of collective mood factors indicate acceleration of global violence mid to late May. Most likely scenarios are Korean military escalation or E. Asia terrorist attack. Technical presentation illustrates.

U.S. in Crisis - Extreme Event Alert - March 2011 (video)

Analysis of mood factors for U.S. society indicate an extreme event, likely mid month.

March 2011 - The Bigger They Are...

The wave of unrest and violence which began in North Africa, continues to sweep around the world and arrives in the Americas in the month of March. With tension between parties and ideologies at extremes in the United States, it should not be surprising if it takes an explosion of violence to restore a semblance of sanity, even if only for a brief moment. This could be the beginning of a long and painful decline; QE2 or 3 or 4 not enough to put Humpty together again. The Empire has no clothes.

Human perception of nature in March is “stormy” in North America; a fitting parallel. Asia, becoming increasingly troubled or ill this month in a socioeconomic sense, shows a parallel in a potentially destructive natural event associated with sickness or disease. As the month comes to a close, and the geopolitical picture becomes more ominous, don’t be surprised if a volcano or two joins in the chorus.

March Highlights:
Civil unrest/violence ∙ U.S. instability ∙ Asia environmental crisis ∙ Stock market sell-off ∙ Storms, volcanoes, and earthquakes

The above is an excerpt from the March 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Violence & War Talk - Special Alert Video Feb 2011

Global mood trends indicate an increase of violence and war rhetoric in February 2011.

January 2011 – A New Normal for a New Year

The year begins with hope for the future, and optimism that things are finally getting back on track—economic recovery perhaps is possible. Yet, before the year is into double digit days, a major paradigm shift should be seen to be taking place. The catalyst for this shift may lie in the geopolitical picture. In a global economy, how can any single country or region expect to do well when another is in disarray? Is the U.S. debt going to remain largely irrelevant while European countries and states within the United States struggle with defaults and restructuring? With a significant escalation in the Korea situation likely (see maps below) and Asian economies sure to be directly impacted, how can the West expect to remain immune?

Given the collective mood for the month, January appears to be a month of rebalancing. Exuberance and recklessness should give way to caution and risk aversion. Gestures of cooperation on the part of world leaders and governments should give way to increasing displays of isolationism and protectionism. Attempts at political harmony could turn to outright enmity. Overbought markets should give back some of last year’s gains, and the U.S. Dollar should make quite a comeback against other currencies.

The human perception of the natural world exhibits this same theme of rebalancing in an aversion of excess energy. Some of the ways this could manifest would be below normal temperatures, heavy precipitation, and releasing of tectonic energy in the form of earthquakes.

By the end of January there may be a strong feeling that the year has begun in a wrong direction, and a collective cry may be heard, “Could we just start the New Year over?”

The above is an excerpt from the January 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Confluence of Crises - Dec Videocast

Highlights: Economic crisis, Social chaos & violence, Middle East / Korea crisis, Market volatility. A global mood "weather forecast" for December 2010.

Turmoil, Panic, and Gridlock – December 2010

The Grinch may very well steal Christmas this year. December is looking to be a month of crises: economic meltdowns and high market volatility; geopolitical situations at critical levels; widespread social turmoil and civil unrest; and governments whose leadership is sorely needed, found to be paralyzed in gridlock.

The natural world looks to be a big part of the headlines this month as well. Forecasted human perception of the natural world is full of extremes, including possibilities of increased volcanic activity in South America and major storms both in North America and Europe.

What is striking about all of this is that it shows up at all. This is a season where traditionally people want to focus on family and the holidays. However, this year, it appears that something could be unusual or shocking enough to provoke moderate panic responses on a societal level. This year, something is different. We began the year saying that in 2010 “the bill comes due, the party’s over.” The big consumption party, and the year, may be finishing up together.

The above is an excerpt from the December 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.