Those who are looking for 2012 to mark the "End of the World" may be dissappointed. 2013 is likely to show up on schedule. However, for those who like an action packed B movie story line, you may enjoy watching the show. Here's a prelimary description of our analysis of collective mood and perception for 2012:
The roller coaster is making its slow climb to the top as the year begins. Somewhere around January 23rd it stops moving as it reaches the apex. It slowly makes its way over the top, and the world gasps as it looks at how high up it is, and how far down we all must go before the end of the ride. The decent begins as we collectively scream over the next few months, "here we go!"
The character development was brief, but the players are familiar. Of course there is the Israel, Iran, Syria, and rest of the Middle East cast. Around February, Japan returns for more radioactive fun, but with added societal unrest and destabilization. Oh, and don't forget the Wall Street Wonders. How could the show be complete without some type of incredible stock market crash? By April, things should really be moving fast, and all may wonder how anyone could take much more, but that's when of course there is a moment of pause and another smaller climb back up. Europe is seriously in trouble (yes, much more than at the year's beginning) by the time June gets here.
Scattered throughout the picture, in no particular order, there are earthquakes and volcanoes and impactful high energy storms wreaking havoc on daily routines and livlihoods. Resource scarcity reaches crisis levels in some areas, and wars or near wars over them is not out of the question. There are increasing groups of fed up people who have decided they have nothing more to lose, and there's a new appearance this year: unrest in the United States rising to a new level which may even at times rival scenes from faraway lands.
So, find a comfortable chair and some popcorn, if you are so priveledged as to not be a part of the show yourself this year. If you find it being too much, turn off the news and watch a movie, one of the Hollywood type. You won't miss anything, really. There's always 2013.
There has been much discussion of Iran lately, and concerns with a possible U.S. aided Israeli strike are high. While our analysis of global mood and perception for the month of December indeed indicates an escalation of the Persian Gulf situation, it does NOT support the likelihood of an Israeli airstrike, at least in December. With the primary geopolitical risk area indicated being the Persian Gulf (see map above), one possible scenario is a naval buildup or blockade within the Gulf. Note that Israel is not indicated as a likely initiator of hostilities. Also the global distress that would result from an outright attack on Iran is missing from the social map (below). It should be noted that the social mood factor that is labled "economic" in this map, besides indicating a contraction in spending, also corresponds with risk avoidance, anxiety, and wanting to stay close to family and home. From this, it seems very likely that residents of the region surrounding the Persian Gulf will be much less sure of their near-term safety in December.
