Friday, October 30, 2009

November 2009 - Desperate Measures

Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
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There is a sense of desperation to the month of November which is likely to challenge world leaders to find new and creative solutions to long standing problems. There are economic concerns that “stimulus” has not yet been able to make go away, and chronic geopolitical issues that continue to go unresolved. In the first half of the month, the primary focus is economic and currency issues. There may be one last big panic over the fate of the U.S. Dollar, after which it should continue to show new strength. As the seriousness of the economic situation begins to become clear, inflation worries will be replaced with concerns about deflation, and global markets could see a sharp, but likely brief, sell-off. The yet unresolved unemployment situation may require new and innovative responses from federal and state governments.

The focus shifts in the second half to the world arena. A polarization develops between “good guys” and “bad guys” (the identification of the good guys and bad guys would be in the eye of the beholder). There is a societal sense of righteousness and unity against an enemy or cause. While it would make sense that a specific event would cause such a response, there is no direct indication as to whether such an event is likely to occur or what it might be. Because there appears to be some relationship to this polarization with the energy markets, there is a good possibility that it involves Iran and possibly Russia.
- - - (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Friday, October 23, 2009

On The Brink - November 09 Videocast

The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for November 2009. US centered economic chaos, Military display(s) of force, Hawaii event, and more swine flu are the highlights.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Is the Dollar Really Dead? Don't Fall For It!

Many have been discussing the Dollar's demise. There have been panic sell-offs of Dollars in the forex market, and U.S. Treasuries are being abandoned wholesale. Yet, this is the kind of extreme in sentiment that most often occurs at a market top or bottom. It's true that the U.S. government is borrowing unprecendented amounts of money. It's true that some countries including China, the U.S.'s primary creditor, is exploring alternatives in reserve currencies. However, as much as China, Russia, Iran, and other nations might wish there were another place to turn, the global system is intricately complex, and rests on a foundation based in debt and U.S. Dollars. Things can not safely change that fast. Also, as global anxiety climbs, and people are once again forced to liquidate assets that are primarily priced in Dollars, the U.S. currency will rise in value against the "commodity" currencies.

Even if there is still one more brief, but possibly extreme panic, holders of the U.S. Dollar will once again find their currency gaining in favor. Inflation worries will be a spector of the past, and deflation will once again be the primary concern. We've been here before. This is what it looks like at a social mood top, as markets in general begin to break down once again, and as Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar are sought as "safety." The Dollar may indeed collapse at some point, and inflation may very well soar to unbelievable heights as resources become more scarce. However, for now, and perhaps for some time to come, the Dollar may find support as the Great Recession continues to play out, and the spectre of Depression once again begins to lurk in the shadows.


Excerpt from the October 2009 MoodCompass:

October 19 – 25: A Solution? U.S. government crisis resolved one way or another. U.S. Dollar declines sharply. Inflation concerns up sharply.

From the Week by Week Highlights of Global Mood, Perception, and Behavior on Page 2 of the October MoodCompass: (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation).