Next U.S. Disaster Window: April 2-11

The next major U.S. disaster is likely about a week away.  Over the last few weeks, we have been discussing a next in the series of increasing scale U.S. tragedies (i.e. Aurora, CO., Libya Ambassador, Hurricane Sandy, and Sandy Hook).  Our measuring stick is a quantification of the relationship between U.S. social mood as found in Google Hot Trends and the context society finds itself in and is creating (U.S. news).  Latest information puts the event occurring April 2-11, with the most likely timeframe as April 4-9. 

This next tragedy has been in phase 3 of 3 of its creation since March 17.  There was a preliminary wave in mid-March, which manifested in unusual and sad stories, but with no sign of the "pressure release" that would allow us to consider phase 3 as completed.

To summarize the latest information:

1) MoodCompass Type is E SE.  This goes with violent protests, mayhem, terrorist activity, and unusual or surprising events.  It is more likely to be initiated by a lone disturbed individual or fringe group than a geopolitical entity (government).  Natural disasters associated with this configuration are earthquakes and violent storms (including cyclones or high winds).  The currently developing U.S. event shows a low probability of being a natural disaster.

2) The event might or might not originate from outside of the U.S.  If the event originates in the United States, the most likely region for it to occur is West/Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the Northeastern U.S.

3) As the events in the series are of increasing subjective impact, there may or may not be more casualties than the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, but it should have a larger emotional impact for most people in the U.S.


During this period there is a very high risk globally, for the types of events listed in 1) above.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .





 

Not Korea, Not Now

According to the latest social mood data, it would be more likely that a next major event would be carried out by a lone disturbed individual than a more organized group.  Also, there is a higher likelihood for terrorist activity than a major geopolitical escalation.  For these reasons, we are not worried about N. Korea at this time. 

 

 

 



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Likely Location for a U.S. Event

While the MoodCompass Team got to be on the news for getting the location of the Japan earthquake/tsunami right in March of 2011, due to funding cuts and lack of personnel, we have had to devise less labor intensive methods for getting potential location data for future significant events.

If the event that still looks like it is preparing to show up, does indeed manifest, we would like to give a head's up to the most likely areas.  The method we are using to do this is still experimental, and we will need a few more incidents to verify that we are on the right track.  If a major tragic event originates in the United States in March or early April, the most likely region for it to occur is Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the Northeastern U.S., although it could occur in less likely places-- such is the nature of probability.  Looking at it globally, if it happened in March, it would most likely occur on the West coast of North America, Northern Africa, or Europe.  For an event that ends up manifesting in early April, we do not yet have sufficient data to say where the highest locations globally would be.

And, if the "storm clouds" dissipate and there is no event to be expected, we will be very happy to share that here.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Violence, Explosions, or Resolution?

The fifth major U.S. tragedy since July 2012 may be in the latter part of phase 3 of 3 in its development, but does it have to happen?  The social mood signature now resembles Sandy Hook about a week before the shooting.   There are also some commonalities with the mood just before the Libya Ambassador shooting.  An interesting situation occurs just before major events manifest: the mood begins to shift, reflecting the event about to happen.  It reflects the new mood that society is about to move toward and settle into.  It indicates a previously overextended mood is about to find balance.  The question arises as whether balance can be found without a major tragedy occurring.  Do these events perform some type of necessary function for society as a whole?

Should the social mood patterns play out as they have in the past year, the type of event that would be about to emerge, would be violent, explosive, and/or fiery, and would lead to people feeling more vulnerable.  There might or might not be more casualties than with Sandy Hook Elementary School, but it would have a higher emotional impact, i.e. be more shocking, unsettling, etc. to the average American.  According to the latest data, it would be more likely that the event would be carried out by a lone disturbed individual than a more organized group.  Also, there is a higher likelihood for terrorist activity than a major geopolitical escalation.  The event might or might not originate from outside of the U.S.
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There are those of us who have been doing an experiment, to move in the direction of balance in our own lives, before the major event occurs.  The goal, is that through the focus and intention of a few, the tragic event might be lessened or even avoided.  The balancing mood represents a slowing down from an extended "manic" period.  It is less expansive, and more about immediate needs.  It would focus more on the people in one's immediate environment, and less on the perhaps hundreds of internet "friends" that one has never met and probably never will.  The mood is already partially shifting in this direction.  It is likely, over the next few weeks, that it will be resolved one way or another.  Is a tragedy necessary to complete this shift?  Can a disaster, this time, be avoided?  We will know soon enough.

The other question is whether a tragedy is necessary.  In a dysfunctional family, when things get excessively stressful, one or more members will act out to get the attention focused on them.  They may break things, act silly, hurt themselves, get violent, or get in trouble with the law.  Whatever unfortunate thing they do, it relieves the immediate stress in the family and life goes on for the group as a whole.  There has been a large and growing "disaster wave" in U.S. social mood since June 2012.  In the current series of tragic events (Aurora, CO theater shooting, Libya Ambassador shooting, Hurricane Sandy, Sandy Hook Elementary), is it that an individual has stepped in to re-unify a fractured society each time the stress of disconnection gets too extreme?  Had Hurricane Sandy not occurred exactly during a phase 3, would a person or group have stepped in?  Can society learn to find cohesion without these horrific events continuing?  One could hope that is possible.  Perhaps, some day soon, we will get to find out.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

U.S. Mood Shifting: Major Event Still Approaching

Last week's news stories were both surprising and sad, appropriately reflecting the collective mood.  However, they did very little to release the building pressure of a not yet realized major tragic event that is observable in U.S. social mood.  Phase 3 of 3 continues to unfold, and a grand finale appears to be waiting to grab our collective attention and shift our focus to a far less expansive mood than is currently experienced.  As was explained in a previous post, phase 3 means the manifestation is days away.

When a manic social mood starts to "break," unusual or chaotic events start to show up in the world "out there."  Some of last week's bizarre-tragic events were: an airport sign falling on a family, killing a ten year old; a baby shot in a stroller by two teens; seven Marines dying in a training exercise when a mortar exploded.  These are all U.S. events.  The U.S. manic mood is beginning to break.

Yet, as sad as all of last week's events were, they were not sufficient to achieve much more than a pause in the collective mood signature.  The "crisis signal" pertaining to March 16-23 was not the big one after all.  Phase 3 is not yet over.  The signal has shifted to a more complex pattern similar to the one observed just before the Sandy Hook Elementary School incident.

While this now complex mood signature looks a lot like what came just before Sandy Hook, what actually happens may end up being something very different.  Yet, it will be obvious when we experience it.  If somehow the mood patterns do something completely new and dissipate without a tragic event occurring, we will certainly be happy to share that.

Some of us at The Crow's Nest have been participating in an experiment to attempt to live the balance before events effectively create that.  The hope in doing this is that if enough people intentionally shifted their consciousness, perhaps the need for a violent or tragic balancing would be minimized.  There's information in previous posts on how you can participate too, if that's of interest to you.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

In Phase 3 of 3 of the Next Big U.S. Crisis, Now What?

Development of the next big tragic event to unite the U.S. (and possibly global) psyche for a brief moment is in phase 3 of 3.  That means two things 1) the event is within a few days away from manifesting, and 2) some information on the type of event is available.  As for the experiment on trying to participate on the side of balance this week before the balancing event occurred, it has been quite challenging thus far.

The first few days of the experiment went well.  Some of us took time to have picnics or take walks in natural settings, to cut down on any frivolous spending, and to remember to take deep breaths and stay grounded.  We were encouraged by the news that there was *almost* another college massacre in Indiana on March 18th, but for some reason the would be assailant only executed himself.  Did we have something to do with how that turned out?  Maybe, maybe not, but the possibility was encouraging.  Yet, in spite of our efforts, we quickly got caught up in the busy, hectic, manic social mood energy of the week, and found ourselves with twice as many activities that had to be done or appointments kept, etc. than is usual for us.  Slowing down this week, was like trying to swim upstream against a massive current.  Still, it has been interesting, thus far, to say the least.

From the information available going into phase 3, the crisis event(s), whatever they may be, should accomplish the following collective shift:

1) Move our attention away from domestic (U.S.) squabbling about numbers, budgets and related government issues.

2) Result in an increased collective feeling of vulnerability or helplessness.

The event(s) may be related to protests, mayhem, mass violence or some type of unusual “surprise” occurrence.  It may possibly be of an international origin, but not necessarily.  There is no evidence at this time of it being a natural disaster.

We will cautiously resume our experiment, trying again to go in the direction of the balancing until this shift has run its course.


If you are interested in more details on the current global mood and the "symptoms" that are likely to show up with it, please visit the MoodCompass Project webpage at  http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

It's a Crazy World this Week!

Global Mood This Week reflects chaos, confusion, and uncertainty.  People are contrarian and argumentative.  There is a high risk for unusual or surprising events.  For those who follow current events in the news, it may appear that the world is falling apart, or "crazy" in a big way.

You don't have to participate in the craziness!

When a manic social mood gets stretched as far as it can go, "the world" starts displaying extreme manic symptoms and a rebalancing occurs.  You can participate in the symptoms, or you can participate in the rebalancing.  It is possible, that if enough people intentionally participate in an other than manic focus, that the symptoms will be less severe as this configuration dissipates. 

Whether the news reveals the disturbing acts of an individual, group, or government; or an outbreak of natural events, it is symptomatic of a collective mood that has gotten too extreme in a direction and is seeking balance.  All natural systems seek balance.  When a society, even a global society, gets too out of touch with the rest of the elements in the system, balance happens.

Alternative Direction: if you would like to participate in the direction of balance for this particular week-- When you feel anxious or energetic, take a deep breath, slow down, and be still for a minute.  Don't spend money on anything extra or "frivolous."  Take a walk in a park or hang out in a forest or other natural setting.  Spend time without the cellphone or computer, aware of the people you are with, and/or the place where you are at.  Pay attention to your feelings; be with yourself.


If you are interested in more details on the current global mood and the "symptoms" that are likely to show up with it, please visit the MoodCompass Project webpage at  http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update
3/18/13: College student plots a massacre, then kills only self.
3/19/13: Nevada military depot mortar explosion kills seven Marines.
3/22/13: Baby shot dead in stroller in Georgia; two teens indicted.
              Airport sign falls on family in Alabama; kills 10 year old boy.
              Three marines dead, including shooter, at Quantico Base, Virginia.

Together We Can Transform Next Week’s Pain into Good

This post is a significant shift from past posts.  It is something positive we can do when faced with disaster prone periods.  Some will get this, some will find it absurd.  That's OK. 

Each day for the last few years, I have spent a few hours gathering data on global society, looking at changes in social mood and watching for possible warning signs of instability.  I have to admit there have been times I’ve wanted to throw in the towel and find something a bit more positive to pay attention to.  Recently, however, there has been a breakthrough in my research, and this has given me hope.  I have treated times of high risk of disasters as something to passively sit back and watch as they unfold.  The good news is that for many global short term problems, even when intense negativity is likely to show up in the news as natural disasters or human tragedy, WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE!  Without getting into all the details of the research right now, I would like to lay out a brief description of the immediate problem and how you can help. 

The problem: In my work, I have found that social mood changes can indicate major events, whether positive or negative, about 1-2 weeks ahead of the event.  For the period March 16 – 24, without intervention, the world is likely to be manifesting some extremely negative events.  News events are likely to be surprising, crazy, and destructive in a big way. 

The solution: Imagine that there is a certain type of energy that we as global society are manifesting too much of, or too loudly right now, and that we are so out of balance that something “out there” is likely to show up and try to rebalance that, whether that be a disturbed individual or group, or a natural event.  The more of us that intentionally participate in the rebalancing, in a healing, non-violent way, the less a drastic or violent solution will “show up.”  

For this week:  Here are some suggestions that you can do to participate in intentionally balancing the current imbalance.  Focus on these changes in yourself, not in the world.  Just this week, if you watch television, avoid zany comedies… turn on a drama instead.  Take a stroll in the woods or a calm natural setting if you are able.  Throughout the day when you are feeling especially energetic, take a deep breath and ground yourself.  If by chance you have “extra” money, put off any frivolous spending just for this week.  Pay attention to what you are feeling… be with yourself. 

I understand that global society is made up of a lot of people, but a little focused intention by just a few people can go a long way.  The actions of just a few of us can raise awareness and heal our world. 


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 3/18/13: College drop out was going to do a massacre, but only killed self.

Another U.S. Tragedy Unfolding: March 16-23

Recently, we announced a breakthrough in understanding the nature of disasters, or at least in the process of watching them develop and then manifest.  This is possible through observation and measurement of changes in U.S. social mood and current U.S. events in the news.  It appears that collectively, we may play a part in the direction that these tragic events eventually manifest, whether we are individually aware of that or not. 

The current wave of increasing scale events has displayed as the Aurora, Colorado theater shooting; the Libya ambassador shooting and Muslim uprising; superstorm Sandy; and the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting.  Currently, the next major event in this series of U.S. tragedies is preparing to reveal itself.  Data on social mood changes as of today, indicate that it is a week or two away from showing up.

The initial signal or phase 1 of 3 for the next in this series of increasing scale major U.S. events was observed on February 28.  This gave an initial estimated manifestation of March 17 - April 9.

Phase 2 of 3 is finishing up.  Information as of today narrowed the time estimate to March 16 - 23.

There will be information about the type of event when phase 3 begins, but that will be only a few days before the event occurs.

We are hopeful that at some point, this type of information could allow us to collectively shift course before such tragic events take place.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Breaking News: Do We Make Disasters? (video)

Collectively, we may be somehow participating in the making of the disasters that affect the country and world as a whole.  Disaster events of increasing scale are part of a continuous wave that began in June 2012.  As of March 3, 2013, the next U.S. event is on step 2 of a 3 step process.  Can something be done to avoid it?



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update 3/5/13:
Next major U.S. event estimated between March 17 and April 9. Still in phase 2 of 3.