Hawaii Panic Ahead (12/29 to 1/5/13)

Hawaii social mood has shifted to a panic configuration indicating a local crisis is just ahead.  As previously posted, we have been concerned with indicators in the state of Hawaii, and have been watching for the signal that would confirm the direction things were heading from the extremely serious tone that has been observed since early December.

The indicated mood can be described as "panic" or "passion."
The type of event signaled can be described as "crisis," "upheaval," or "disaster."

For more information about potential casualties, the current global outlook, or the MoodCompass Project see http://moodcompass.com.

- - - - -  - - - -
Update:
1/5/13- Windy conditions cause damage and destruction across Hawaii
             Violent winds across islands take toll on roofs and trees

Destructive Action - Social Mood thru Dec. 31, 2012

According to changes detected in social mood patterns, destructive acts (or interventions) by governments, institutions, and organization are more likely than usual. The social mood is centered around destruction and disintegration. Polarization of worldviews is very high, and cooperation on any large scale endevour is near impossible.

The chances of a crisis or disaster-type event are elevated, generating a disaster watch.  However, a major disaster is not anticipated within the United States during this period* (see chart)

 

Destructive Natural events are possible during this period. The types most associated with the current pattern are earthquakes, unstable/destructive weather, volcanoes, and toxic environments.

 

For more information on the MoodCompsss Project, see: http://moodcompass.com.



*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of potential impact to U.S. society. An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. economic loss). Also, since U.S. social mood changes are the measure, if the event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.

- - - - - - - -
News Examples of "Destructive Action":
12/24/2012:  Two firefighters shot and killed while responding to house fire.
12/25/2012: Messy, dangerous Christmas weather
12/27/2012:  Woman sleeping on Los Angeles bench set on fire
                          Man pushed to death in front of subway train
                         Winter weather death toll (U.S.) at least 15

When Depressed Social Mood Explodes

Since early December, the social mood as obserbed in Hawaii's people as well as local current events has been extremely somber, similar to how the mood of a person experiencing a severe depression would appear.  The peak of this seems to have been yesterday's news of the death of the well-respected, long term senator, Daniel Inouye.

The MoodCompass team has been watching for signs of a shift in this social depression.  When a person has a serious depression and then begins to come out of it, whether through medication, treatment, or time, they are briefly in heightened danger.  All the strong emotions that have for the most part been "depressed" become energized and may show up in bouts of rage, destructive behavior, even suicidal behavior.

Today, marks the first sign in weeks of a shift from that extremely serious, depressed social mood configuration.  Where it goes next is crucial.  Does it take on the bipolar configuration and move to a manic pattern?  Does it become rageful or destructive?  Or, will it move to a more benign, life-affirming configuration?

Because we are currently on alert for a potential Hawaiian crisis, the possibility of a developing  explosive mood (or event) is something to pay careful attention to.

For more information on the MoodCompass project, see http://moodcompass.com.
 

Global Mood: Destructive

The recent surge in mass violence episodes by individual actors should begin to subside after the 15th, but continues to remain slightly elevated. Destructive acts (or interventions) by governments and institutions are more likely than usual.

Destructive Natural events are possible during this period. The types most associated with the current pattern are volcanoes, earthquakes, unstable/destructive weather, and toxic environments.

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
 

Hawaii Disaster Warning, Update

Alert period: December 15 - 22, 2012

To Recap:

Changes in observed Hawaiian social mood has generated a signal indicating an event that should be perceived as crisis, disaster, or upheaval by the people of Hawaii is likley to occur within the alert period.

Such events are often related to violence, unrest, or natural disasters.  The local factor related to protests and mass violence is slightly elevated, but not extreme.

The charts below show the "temperature" or intensities of each of several risk factors of U.S. social mood which are also proportionate globally.  If the Hawaii event is related to mass violence, the event or precipitating event would most likely occur  by December 15.

Should a natural disaster be the primary source of the indicated crisis, the most likely type would be a tsunami or volcanic eruption.

Below is the current U.S. damage risk "thermometer" which gives a potential casualty level per type of damage that the social mood would support occuring within the U.S.*

*An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. economic loss).

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com

- - - - - - - - - -
Update: January 3, 2013:
The "Hawaii Disaster" during this period was apparently the death of well-respected, long time senator Daniel Inoyue.  Besides the emotional impact, according to the Hawaii budget head, economically, his death will result in an "economic cliff" for Hawaii, bigger than the federal fiscal cliff.

 

Update, Dec. '12 Hawaii Crisis Alert

A confirmation signal was generated by social mood changes in Hawaii that a disaster-type event or series of events is likely in the near future.  The subjective impact to Hawaiians of this event should be greater than the Aurora, CO theater shooting or the Libya ambassador killing was experienced by most Americans.  The event(s) may be described as crisis, disaster, or upheaval.

It should be noted that there is no U.S.-wide signal reflecting a disaster, crisis or upheaval.  Therefore, unless a U.S. signal is generated in the next few days, it is expected to be perceived by Hawaiians as a much more impactful event than is perceived by the average American.

The charts below show the "temperature" or intensity of the risk factors for Hawaii and for the United States as a whole.

 



 For more information on the MoodCompass Project see: http://moodcompass.com.

Crisis Warning, Hawaii Dec. 2012

We are currently monitoring a disaster-type signal generated by changes in the social mood in Hawaii and are waiting for a secondary confirmation signal.  This would indicate a near future event or series of events that would be perceived by the people in Hawaii as a disaster, crisis, or  upheaval.  We will keep you posted, and will update with further details as we get them.

Violent-upheaval possible thru Oct. 22

Changes in social mood generated a new signal, creating the following alert:

 

 

There is a high risk for event(s) perceived as crisis, upheaval, or disaster especially between October 12-19. Casualty estimates are between 6 and 60*. 

 

There is an elevated risk for event(s) perceived as violent protests or terrorist activity especially between October 15-22.  A small number of casualties are possible*.

 

Because these signals overlap, they may be part of a single event or set of events, such as a violent-upheaval.

 

Significant natural events may occur during this period. If so, the types most associated with the current pattern are tornadoes (cyclones) and earthquakes.

 

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of expected impact to U.S. society. If the event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater. An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. market failure).

For more information on The MoodCompass Project see moodcompass.com.

- - - - - - -
Update
10/17/12: Man held in NYC plot to blow up Federal Reserve
                Denver bar set on fire with five murder victims inside
10/18/12: Clashes erupt at Greek anti-austerity protests
                  Tornadoes leave thousands without power
                  Google filing error shocks investors
10/21/12:  Gunman shoots 7 at Wisconsin spa

Unrests, protests, but no disasters

Social Mood patterns indicate a drop in factors related to disaster, crisis and upheaval. Indicators of unrest and violent protests are still elevated.  So, globally, there may be some instances of unrest or protests through October 11, 2012.  However, widespread unrest or violence is unlikely.  Also, the likelihood of any major disaster is low. Enjoy the moment!

 

For more information see moodcompass.com.



 

Angry, Explosive, Destructive Sept. 14-18, 2012

The social mood is flashing red as we go into this weekend.  In fact, there has been no time this year that such a potentially dangerous collective mood has registered. There are symptomatic events in the news such as the Chicago teacher's strike and the Arab world up in arms, attacking U.S. embassies. You may even have noticed yourself or the people around you feeling extra edgy, argumentative, even explosive.  This mood pattern continues through next Tuesday, so do your best to keep a cool head and prevent any permanent damage to otherwise good relationships.

For further details on the social mood "temperature," and the latest alerts see moodcompass.com.

Violence / Disaster Alert Sept. 11-22, 2012

In both the months of July and August, there was an increase in the level of violence in the category of mass shootings. In July, 12 people were killed and 59 wounded in the theatre shooting in Aurora, CO.  In August, 7 were killed in a shooting at a Sikh temple in Wisconsin.  Several other shootings occured by disgruntled employees, people mad about eviction notices, and a student upset about being bullied.  Increases in these types of events can be predicted.

 

Our Societal Risk Thermometer, which uses changes in social mood to detect the liklihood of such events 1-2 weeks in advance of their occurance, is showing a possible double whammy just ahead.  It is showing a concurrent warning of a mass violent event and a disaster or upheaval type of event.  The warnings for the individual signals are given on our website moodcompass.com.  While these could be two different events or series of event types, with both signals peaking nearly at the same time, does that signal some larger scale event, a violent disaster of some type?  Is the scale of loss of such an event the sum of the two signals (greater than 14 people) or the product (greater than 33 people)?  With limited experience dealing with concurrent signals, we are uncertain how this affects the expected manifestation.

 

Also, as mentioned on our website, estimated casualties are based on the expected impact to U.S. society, and provided to give a sense of scale.  If the event(s) occur outside of the United States, losses of life and/or property could be substantially greater. 

 

Stay alert and keep a cool head, especially over the next two weeks. 

 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Update 9/11: Egypt protesters breach U.S. embassy over insulting film

            9/12: U.S. Ambassador to Libya and 3 others American diplomats are killed

            9/14: Death toll rises as protests rage across Muslim world over Muhammad mocking video

            9/18: More than 13 people killed in Afghanistan Suicide Attack over film           

            9/22: Nineteen killed, 200 wounded in violent protests in Pakistan over anti-Islam film

 

For the record, this is what was published on moodcompass.com as of Sept. 9:

There is a high risk for violent outbursts, violent protests, and/or terrorist activities on the scale of 3-5* casualties, especially between September 11-18.

There is a high risk for event(s) perceived as a disaster or upheaval with casualties greater than 11*, especially between September 14-22.

Note: The period in which both risks overlap is September 14-18. The effect that concurrent high risks have on likely casualties has not yet been determined.

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of expected impact to U.S. society. Also, if the event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.

Major Event Warning

U.S. Social Mood patterns taken from Google Hot Trends and U.S. News stories indicate a spike in factors related to upheaval and instability. A major event which should have some impact to people in the United States may be imminent.  For the latest information visit http://moodcompass.com.

 

Update 7/20/12: Manifestation of this signal appears to be a shooting at a showing of a new Batman movie in Aurora, CO.  See link.

Terrorist Activity Watch

Since last Friday, the risk of newsworthy terrorist activity has risen to over 30% from an almost negligible amount.  The social mood today has elements of warrior and revolutionary in it.  This pattern warrants close watching.  Charts for both May 25 and May 30 are shown below.

Violence Alert - May 19, 2012 (video)

Social mood patterns indicate elevated risk of violent protests, outbreaks, and/or terrorist activity in the immediate future.

Social Mood Snapshot 5/12/12 (video)

Using top Google Hot Trends, a picture of society's mood is presented by animated talk show characters.

Romney passes Obama - Election Update 5/11/12 (video)

Latest numbers projected through analysis of U.S. social mood.  Romney is now ahead.

U.S. Presidential Election Update 5/8/12 (video)

Latest numbers projected through analysis of U.S. social mood.  Romney shows slightly ahead.

U.S. Election Update - April 25, 2012 (video)

Latest presidential numbers projected through analysis of U.S. social mood.

U.S. Election Update 4/17/12 (video)

Latest presidential numbers projected through analysis of U.S. social mood.

April 2012 Socioeconomic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Outlook (video)

Analysis of mood and perception for April 2012, and likely associated socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events.

March 2012 Socioeconomic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Outlook (video)

Analysis of social mood and perception projected for March 2012, and likely associated socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events.

MoodCompass in the News!

Our research in forecasting global mood and perception made the TV News!



WBKO original: http://www.wbko.com/home/headlines/Group_Using_Research_to_Predict_Disasters__Global_Events_138962294.html

WNKY original: http://www.wnky.net/news/139089249.html?video=pop&t=a