Buildup to a Crisis

A crisis appears to be just over the horizon.  It looks to involve the United States.  It could be quite serious and involve mass casualties, or it may be a market disruption with injuries of an economic nature.  I’m finding this one difficult to pin down much beyond "there's a thing here."   It may be that there is no single crisis, but that this marks the beginning of a series of crises.  I will explain the possibilities I am looking at for this initial period through December 3.  Perhaps you can figure it out.   

I track and analyze social mood daily, weekly, and even at longer time frames.  Research spanning two decades shows that internet search trend patterns can give a glimpse into near future categories of news events as well as upcoming market changes.  While the stock market may be overdue for a sharp drop, my primary concern at this moment is a crisis event (whether market related or not) that is likely to occur in the next two weeks.

The method I use begins with converting internet search trends to four primary Mood Qualities, Vulnerable, Expansive, Manic, and Controlled.  The first step in analysis is to look at their changing values relative to each other, and identify any recognizable patterns (see chart below).  This graph of squiggly lines implies that the primary outlook during Thanksgiving week is a combination of a pattern I call “Rose Colored Glasses” and another which points to denial or delusion.  Together these paint a picture of a week where people really would like to tune out negative news, and find a bright side to things if at all possible.  The following week, however, appears to be a crisis point.

Looking at the distribution of social mood geographically can give us more information about the type of crisis to watch for.  Below are global and U.S. MoodMaps for the period of November 19-26.  The WorldMood map shows the U.S. in an aggressive mood, an unstable region around Kazakhstan, and an area marked “destructive” in Northern Chile.  I have no further information about the non-U.S. regions, but they warrant keeping an eye on, as they show an elevated risk as trouble spots. 

A look at the U.S. MoodMap for this same period (below) does not give us any clue about the “aggression” seen on the global map (but hold that thought).  The green area over the East Coast, depicts the kind of mood often described as “the calm before the storm,” or sometimes as “cricket sounds.”  This goes well with the mood pattern from the spaghetti line graph we were looking at earlier, and the idea of trying to look past anything negative or “denial.”

Often the pattern earlier identified as “aggressive” on the world map will coincide with military escalation, or at least with geopolitical bluster.  Yet, without a region showing up as a target of such aggression, it’s of little imminent concern.  Turning the page, so to speak, we will look at the following week’s maps (below).

For November 27 – December 3, the U.S. is shown as destructive and/or disruptive.  The only other region identified as significant is North and South Korea and Japan which are shown as defensive and/or risk averse.  The two weeks' world maps together imply one possible scenario as the United States upping the rhetoric or action in the situation with North Korea during this period.  

Yet again, there is another picture coming from the United States MoodMap.  There is a region showing as “disruptive” centered around New York.  This particular configuration can mean several things.  1) Disruptive activity such as protests or even terrorist activity.  2) Being New York, it can indicate market disruption.  3) A disruptive natural event.  4) Last, but not least, being New York, it could also point to a final Manic market rally.

The only way I can see putting both the global and U.S. maps for this week together would be some type of market disruption that affects the U.S. and East Asia in particular.  However, there can be more than one thing happening here.

In summary, the weekly mood pattern tells us to watch for a crisis event on some level as soon as the weekend following Thanksgiving through Monday December 3.  The maps caution of one possible scenario being the United States escalating the North Korea situation, another possibility being a New York disruptive event such as mass protests, or even terrorist activity.  There could be a disruptive market event, or possibly a severe weather event.  A note of caution to those looking to short the stock market: even IF there is a disruptive market event at some point before December 3, that does not mean there won't be a large rally before or after that.

These maps as well as the mood timeline are not crystal balls, and don't tell us what necessarily will happen.  However, more often than not, they give us a glimpse of a future mood category which in turn allows us to make an educated guess at the type of event(s) which might accompany a given societal "response."

U.S. Terrorist Alert through October 12, 2017

Analysis of internet search trend patterns show a high risk of increased terrorist activity through October 12.  Geographical analysis indicates the highest probability within the U.S. is in the area surrounding Denver, Co.  I hope I have your attention, as an alert such as this is not given lightly.  Let me explain how this is arrived at.

Research spanning two decades shows that daily internet search trends can indicate changes in markets as well as alert to categories of upcoming news events several days before they occur.  Likewise, weekly trends can be used to show changes in markets and categories of news events several weeks before they occur.  Because we are looking at U.S. trends here, it will reflect U.S. and world events which have an emotional impact on people in the United States.

During the time of the source data for this alert, the iPhone 8 and X were announced, Hurricane Irma was completing its run of destruction, and NFL pro football season was beginning.  To convert what we were collectively focusing on at that time into numbers that can be analyzed, we start out with translating the search trends into themes.  For the period in question, this was technology, business, wind, rain, nature, uncertainty, death, men, and sports.  This is then converted into relative intensities of what we call four primary mood qualities: Vulnerable, Expansive, Manic, and Controlled.

The chart below may look like colorful spaghetti, but it gives us a great deal of information on when certain types of events are more likely to occur.  The specific configuration that is showing up for the week ahead (the orange Manic line on top, and the gray Controlled line on the bottom) has occurred only one other time this past year (week ending 5/19).  This pattern indicates societal disruption.  When it shows up on a daily scale, it is usually associated with protests or strikes, but can also be associated with "random violence" and increased terrorist activity.  When it shows up on a weekly scale, it almost always is associated with increased terrorist activity.  The terrorist attack at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, England occurred on May 22.  While the timing of market reactions is much more precise, it’s not uncommon for news events to slightly lag behind the mood pattern.



If one looks closely at the above chart, it can be seen that the week of 5/19 and the upcoming week ending 10/6 occur in the area marked “Mood/Effect Inversion.”  The “normal” configuration, the gray Controlled line on top and the orange Manic line on the bottom occurred once this year for the week ending 6/9.  On June 14, a group of Republican lawmakers were attacked by a gunman at a baseball field in Virginia.

Analyzing the geographic distribution of our search trend data, we produced the map below.  The black area marked “destructive” is significant, but it is not clear what this is referring to.  It could be pointing to California, or to something in Mexico or Central America that is serious enough to impact (on an emotional level) people in the United States.  There is nothing to do with this other than wait and see what it might be about.  However, the orange circle very close to the Denver, Colorado area is quite specific.  It’s of the type we are on the lookout for (disruptive) and it’s pointing to a very specific area.  While this does not imply that we are certain that a terrorist attack will occur in the Denver area by October 12, it does mean that during a period where increased terrorist activity is likely, that the highest probability for such an event to occur within the U.S. is near Denver, Colorado.  It’s also important to note that we have not yet completed the map for October 8-15 which could provide us with further insight.



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Update Oct. 2, 2017: So far there have been a mass shooting in Las Vegas, terrorist attacks in France and Canada, and violent protests in Catalonia, and the week has just begun.  It's possible that the MoodMap was off and there will be no Denver event.  Perhaps Las Vegas was it.  Let's hope and pray that there is nothing more!

Because this science is in its infancy, we are still learning how to read the MoodMaps.  At times what appears to be multiple events, is actually one event at the center which combines the qualities of all the "pieces."  When the Disruptive component and the Destructive component are taken as one event, it can be seen in the map below that Las Vegas is right in the center.  Surely that event was both destructive and disruptive.

Terrorist Activity Watch: July 7-11, 2015 (video)

A spike in manic mood often accompanies terrorist activity.  U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows climax disruptive mood event(s) in the week ahead.  This may include a spike in mayhem, protests, and/or terrorist activity in the news.



Update:

The climax event we were watching for was on 7/16, the shooting in Chattanooga, TN in which 5 servicemen died as well as the gunman.  Chattanooga is within the high risk area highlighted by our map, but the event took place a few days outside of our time window.

Unexpected Explosions of Violence

Violent explosion!  I read those words a few days ago in conjunction with the unexpected eruption of a volcano in Chile.  It made me wonder what was about to happen next.  Unlike many, I do not believe this is an isolated incident, nor is it “random.”  It is part of an overall pattern in play right now (MoodCompass Type: SSE).  This is Nature’s expression of it for the moment.  This same pattern in the human world can look like sudden geopolitical escalation, violent protests, or even terrorist activity.  In the markets it often goes with sudden spikes in the price of oil and gasoline.  There was a violent explosion with an unexpected twist in the news today -- two hostages were inadvertently killed in a drone strike, albeit last January.


Expect the unexpected in world news over the next week or two.  Expect surprising explosive events or violence with an unexpected twist.  Personally, I recommend you do what you can to keep your world calm and centered.  Things will likely get worked out one way or another on the global scene so that “business as usual” may prevail.  There is quite an investment in the status quo, and for now, keeping it in tact is strong motivation for world leaders.  So, whatever volcanoes, skirmishes, or other unexpected explosions appear over the next week or two, do your best to stay cool!

U.S. Disaster Could be Imminent, August 9, 2013

We have continued to track social mood in the background these past few months, and have had nothing much to say about disasters for some time.  However, we have to mention this spike in disaster risk that has been forming over the last few days, and has just turned critical. 

 

According to U.S. social mood factors, the most likely type of disaster is MoodCompass type S SE.  For human caused disasters, this corresponds with terrorist attacks, violent protests, riots, and other anti-establishment violence.  We are all already aware of a high alert in many of our embassies overseas.  For natural disasters, the most likely type would be fires or earthquakes. 

 

According to NOAA, there is no extremely bad weather in the forecast.  Yet, globally, there is an extreme risk for a natural disaster on the scale of last year's Superstorm Sandy (worse than that if it happens outside the U.S.) on August 9 (which may also continue over the weekend).  The chart that shows the spike in natural disaster risk is below.

 

Update 8/10/13: The spike was a one day window, apparently we got through OK.  However, this indicates that we may be in for a time of increased global crises and both human and natural disasters.  Will keep you posted.

 

Weather, Violence, and Americans

The way we collectively feel (social mood) goes through cycles relative to the news, or the events from "out there" that happen to us.  Sometimes we are really disconnected from the news and the events in it seem really severe compared to our lives and the world we experience.  The cycle then moves toward a place of reconnection where how we feel reflects what is happening in the world around us and the events that occur likewise resonate with how we have been feeling.

We are entering that reconnection phase right now, and for the next week or so, the mood we are in collectively and the events we read about in our world will be in sync.  This is true not just for events about people, but all events.  If we are collectively content, the weather will be generally pleasant, and there won't be a lot of horrible stories of people hurting people in the news.  However, if we are collectively agitated, we will hear of stories of agitated people striking out in random ways and of unstable, agitated weather creating havoc in people's lives.  If we are collectively ready to charge ahead in pursuit of our goals no matter who gets in the way (as the mood is reflecting), we may hear stories of organized violence, terrorist attacks or geopolitical escalation (increased war risk and/or carnage).  The way this primarily shows up in Nature is violent weather, floods, and volcanoes.  With the current pattern, earthquakes and fires would also not be uncommon.

If during these periods, social mood, the stories of people in the news, and the events of Nature are all closely related; and if none of these are the primary cause of the other, but all reflecting one interconnected expression; then by changing one, the others would change.  Even if we can change none of these directly, we can perhaps change ourselves.  For those of us wanting to participate, we can look at how we are pushing to move forward in our own lives.  Being ready to charge ahead is great, there is nothing wrong with a burst of directed action.  However, without understanding, communication or connection of some type with who or what we might be pushing aside or running over, this can become destructive.  The challenge for those who want to try this, is to find this balance in yourself, at least through mid-June.  See if the days you find this balance don't happen to be the days absent of stormy weather and angry or violent news stories.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Mass Violence Risk Way Up thru May 13

Social mood shows a global risk of mass violence through May 13.  People are frustrated, angry, and ready to take whatever action they deem necessary.  Protests are on the upswing, and any could easily turn violent with the current mood configuration. 

Collective mood is beginning to transition from the "lone wolf" motif toward more organized violent activities.  This would include government initiated violence.

Epidemic factors are also on the increase.  This is associated with concerns of disease, health, and/or mortality.  This could reflect a separate focus or be a concurrent theme along with expressed violence (e.g. poison, biologicals, etc.)


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Update:
5/5/13: Thousands of Islamist Protesters violently demand anti-blasphemy laws
5/12/13: 19 people shot at New Orleans Mother's Day parade

More Violence with a Toxic Overlay through May 3

Social Mood shows an emphasis on ideology and an increased willingness to sacrifice for a higher purpose.  This combined with a continuing high global risk of violence and terrorist activity is concerning.  Factors associated with mayhem and unrest are also on the rise.

Another trend of interest is a sharp rise in epidemic factors.  This can correspond with increased interest in disease, sickness, and mortality.  The China bird flu may become more of a serious concern this week.  This trend may also correspond with poisons, toxins, or environmental destruction.  It would be best to monitor news updates to see how this will express itself.

While violence and terrorism factors remain elevated, it is unlikely that a major attack will occur on U.S. soil.  Should there be any incidents, the targets with the highest likelihood are Russia, Europe, the United States, and E. Asia.

The risk for natural disasters should continue to decline and remain at low levels.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update:
4/28/13 4 people stabbed in Albuquerque church
5/1/13   May Day rally turns violent in Seattle

Global Scale Crises thru April 25

Collective mood indicates escalating global instability and economic crises, especially after April 17.  Today's stock market tumble was the sound of distant thunder as a larger storm approaches.

Instability may be exacerbated by ideological conflict.  There is an increased risk for protests, mass violence, and terrorist activity.  There is a higher than usual geopolitical risk for what would be experienced societally as an "unprovoked" attack.  Unusual or surprise events are likely.

Social mood depicts the shape of the crises to be primarily around economic issues and the markets, as well as other events that lead to an increasing sense of vulnerability and risk aversion.  Tenacious optimism and "animal spirits" are likely to fade as dollars and market points disappear.  People should become less certain about the future, less willing to spend, and possibly less willing to venture far from home.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

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Update
4/15/13: The Boston Marathon terrorist attack today is another very loud "rumble of thunder."
4/17/13: Deadly quake hits Iran / Pakistan
4/18/13: Up to 40 dead in Texas fertilizer plant explosion
              More mayhem in Boston: MIT officer shot
4/20/13: Over 150 dead, thousands injured in Sichuan, China quake
               Week in review: Across America, Chaos, Horror, and Hope
4/24/13: Flash Crash: 4 minute stock market plunge wipes out $200 million in value
4/25/13: Over 250 die in Bangladeshi building collapse
 

Next U.S. Disaster Window: April 2-11

The next major U.S. disaster is likely about a week away.  Over the last few weeks, we have been discussing a next in the series of increasing scale U.S. tragedies (i.e. Aurora, CO., Libya Ambassador, Hurricane Sandy, and Sandy Hook).  Our measuring stick is a quantification of the relationship between U.S. social mood as found in Google Hot Trends and the context society finds itself in and is creating (U.S. news).  Latest information puts the event occurring April 2-11, with the most likely timeframe as April 4-9. 

This next tragedy has been in phase 3 of 3 of its creation since March 17.  There was a preliminary wave in mid-March, which manifested in unusual and sad stories, but with no sign of the "pressure release" that would allow us to consider phase 3 as completed.

To summarize the latest information:

1) MoodCompass Type is E SE.  This goes with violent protests, mayhem, terrorist activity, and unusual or surprising events.  It is more likely to be initiated by a lone disturbed individual or fringe group than a geopolitical entity (government).  Natural disasters associated with this configuration are earthquakes and violent storms (including cyclones or high winds).  The currently developing U.S. event shows a low probability of being a natural disaster.

2) The event might or might not originate from outside of the U.S.  If the event originates in the United States, the most likely region for it to occur is West/Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the Northeastern U.S.

3) As the events in the series are of increasing subjective impact, there may or may not be more casualties than the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, but it should have a larger emotional impact for most people in the U.S.


During this period there is a very high risk globally, for the types of events listed in 1) above.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .





 

Not Korea, Not Now

According to the latest social mood data, it would be more likely that a next major event would be carried out by a lone disturbed individual than a more organized group.  Also, there is a higher likelihood for terrorist activity than a major geopolitical escalation.  For these reasons, we are not worried about N. Korea at this time. 

 

 

 



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Likely Location for a U.S. Event

While the MoodCompass Team got to be on the news for getting the location of the Japan earthquake/tsunami right in March of 2011, due to funding cuts and lack of personnel, we have had to devise less labor intensive methods for getting potential location data for future significant events.

If the event that still looks like it is preparing to show up, does indeed manifest, we would like to give a head's up to the most likely areas.  The method we are using to do this is still experimental, and we will need a few more incidents to verify that we are on the right track.  If a major tragic event originates in the United States in March or early April, the most likely region for it to occur is Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the Northeastern U.S., although it could occur in less likely places-- such is the nature of probability.  Looking at it globally, if it happened in March, it would most likely occur on the West coast of North America, Northern Africa, or Europe.  For an event that ends up manifesting in early April, we do not yet have sufficient data to say where the highest locations globally would be.

And, if the "storm clouds" dissipate and there is no event to be expected, we will be very happy to share that here.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Violence, Explosions, or Resolution?

The fifth major U.S. tragedy since July 2012 may be in the latter part of phase 3 of 3 in its development, but does it have to happen?  The social mood signature now resembles Sandy Hook about a week before the shooting.   There are also some commonalities with the mood just before the Libya Ambassador shooting.  An interesting situation occurs just before major events manifest: the mood begins to shift, reflecting the event about to happen.  It reflects the new mood that society is about to move toward and settle into.  It indicates a previously overextended mood is about to find balance.  The question arises as whether balance can be found without a major tragedy occurring.  Do these events perform some type of necessary function for society as a whole?

Should the social mood patterns play out as they have in the past year, the type of event that would be about to emerge, would be violent, explosive, and/or fiery, and would lead to people feeling more vulnerable.  There might or might not be more casualties than with Sandy Hook Elementary School, but it would have a higher emotional impact, i.e. be more shocking, unsettling, etc. to the average American.  According to the latest data, it would be more likely that the event would be carried out by a lone disturbed individual than a more organized group.  Also, there is a higher likelihood for terrorist activity than a major geopolitical escalation.  The event might or might not originate from outside of the U.S.
.
There are those of us who have been doing an experiment, to move in the direction of balance in our own lives, before the major event occurs.  The goal, is that through the focus and intention of a few, the tragic event might be lessened or even avoided.  The balancing mood represents a slowing down from an extended "manic" period.  It is less expansive, and more about immediate needs.  It would focus more on the people in one's immediate environment, and less on the perhaps hundreds of internet "friends" that one has never met and probably never will.  The mood is already partially shifting in this direction.  It is likely, over the next few weeks, that it will be resolved one way or another.  Is a tragedy necessary to complete this shift?  Can a disaster, this time, be avoided?  We will know soon enough.

The other question is whether a tragedy is necessary.  In a dysfunctional family, when things get excessively stressful, one or more members will act out to get the attention focused on them.  They may break things, act silly, hurt themselves, get violent, or get in trouble with the law.  Whatever unfortunate thing they do, it relieves the immediate stress in the family and life goes on for the group as a whole.  There has been a large and growing "disaster wave" in U.S. social mood since June 2012.  In the current series of tragic events (Aurora, CO theater shooting, Libya Ambassador shooting, Hurricane Sandy, Sandy Hook Elementary), is it that an individual has stepped in to re-unify a fractured society each time the stress of disconnection gets too extreme?  Had Hurricane Sandy not occurred exactly during a phase 3, would a person or group have stepped in?  Can society learn to find cohesion without these horrific events continuing?  One could hope that is possible.  Perhaps, some day soon, we will get to find out.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Violent-upheaval possible thru Oct. 22

Changes in social mood generated a new signal, creating the following alert:

 

 

There is a high risk for event(s) perceived as crisis, upheaval, or disaster especially between October 12-19. Casualty estimates are between 6 and 60*. 

 

There is an elevated risk for event(s) perceived as violent protests or terrorist activity especially between October 15-22.  A small number of casualties are possible*.

 

Because these signals overlap, they may be part of a single event or set of events, such as a violent-upheaval.

 

Significant natural events may occur during this period. If so, the types most associated with the current pattern are tornadoes (cyclones) and earthquakes.

 

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of expected impact to U.S. society. If the event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater. An event of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. market failure).

For more information on The MoodCompass Project see moodcompass.com.

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Update
10/17/12: Man held in NYC plot to blow up Federal Reserve
                Denver bar set on fire with five murder victims inside
10/18/12: Clashes erupt at Greek anti-austerity protests
                  Tornadoes leave thousands without power
                  Google filing error shocks investors
10/21/12:  Gunman shoots 7 at Wisconsin spa

Major Event Warning

U.S. Social Mood patterns taken from Google Hot Trends and U.S. News stories indicate a spike in factors related to upheaval and instability. A major event which should have some impact to people in the United States may be imminent.  For the latest information visit http://moodcompass.com.

 

Update 7/20/12: Manifestation of this signal appears to be a shooting at a showing of a new Batman movie in Aurora, CO.  See link.

Terrorist Activity Watch

Since last Friday, the risk of newsworthy terrorist activity has risen to over 30% from an almost negligible amount.  The social mood today has elements of warrior and revolutionary in it.  This pattern warrants close watching.  Charts for both May 25 and May 30 are shown below.

Violence Alert - May 19, 2012 (video)

Social mood patterns indicate elevated risk of violent protests, outbreaks, and/or terrorist activity in the immediate future.

Panic, Violence, and Justice - Dec '11

Highlights: Persian Gulf escalation ∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ More protests ∙ Surge in gas prices near Christmas

While shoring up the economy continues to be a concern as the month begins, worries about global instability expand beyond corporate profits and credit availability in December. Pervasive anxiety accompany negative news headlines as lawmakers and leaders squabble and stubbornly oppose cooperation on needed solutions. Mid to late month the focus is on global unrest, aggression, and possible eruptions of violence. During this period, there is an elevated risk of terrorist activity. Although it is unlikely that Israel will bomb Iran this month, the Persian Gulf situation may reach crisis levels, and a surge in the price of crude oil and gasoline may make Christmas traveling especially difficult. The U.S. government could find itself with an even lower public opinion, and very near a lowered credit rating by the end of the month.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are four major periods indicated for December --

December 7 - 13  Paradigm Shift.   

December 14 - 22  Global Aggression.   
December 23 - 27  Panic and Bad News. 
December 28 - 31  Reset.

(further details available in the full version of MoodCompass)

The above is an excerpt from the December 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

China and the Middle East - Erupting this month?

Protests and outrage over governmental failings and corporate greed have been on the rise.  A surprising factor to add to the mix this month may be the people of China, as analysis of global societal mood factors show "panic" and "outrage" peaking in the People's Republic in November (see map below).  This is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Also, North Africa and the Middle East are again showing up as hot beds of protests, unrest, and/or violence, in spite of Ghaddafi's reign being at an end (see map). This indicates a significant increase in social chaos from recent days. This configuration also indicates an increased risk of terrorist activity in the region.

Last, but not least, the developing events in Kosovo bear close watching.  Because Kosovo is within the region showing risks of escalation of unrest and violence, an already volatile situation may become critical.

For more information on the MoodCompass Project visit http://MoodCompass.com.

Actual Events:
11/5/11: 67 dead in northeast Nigeria attacks
11/7/11: Official Israeli websites brought down by "malfunction"
11/9/11: Beijing residents cry foul over the air
11/11/11: 13+ killed in Syria protest violence
11/12/11: Pro-Assad crowd attacks Saudi embassy in Syria
11/15/11: Syrian activists rip flag from Jordanian embassy
11/17/11: Sryia close to civil war;  Syrian army shells villages after defectors attack
11/18/11: Thousands protest in Egypt against army rule
11/19/11: Egyptian police, protesters clash in Tahrir Square ; Violence erupts in Cairo
11/21/11: New clashes in key Cairo square after bloody weekend
11/24/11: Syrian tanks bombard defectors
11/29/11: Iranian protesters storm British Embassy in Tehran

Terrorism, War & Asia - May 2011 Alert (video)

Analysis of collective mood factors indicate acceleration of global violence mid to late May. Most likely scenarios are Korean military escalation or E. Asia terrorist attack. Technical presentation illustrates.