Changes in social mood generated a new signal, creating the following alert:
There is a high risk for event(s) perceived as crisis, upheaval, or disaster
especially between October 12-19.
Casualty estimates are between 6 and 60*.
There is an elevated risk for event(s) perceived as violent
protests or terrorist activity especially between October 15-22. A small number of casualties are possible*.
Because these signals overlap, they may be part of a single event
or set of events, such as a violent-upheaval.
Significant natural events may occur during this period. If so, the types most associated with the current pattern are tornadoes (cyclones) and earthquakes.
*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of
expected impact to U.S. society. If the event(s) occur outside of the United
States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater. An event
of equivalent impact without fatalities is also possible (e.g. market failure).
For more information on The MoodCompass Project see moodcompass.com.
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Update
10/17/12: Man held in NYC plot to blow up Federal Reserve
Denver bar set on fire with five murder victims inside
10/18/12: Clashes erupt at Greek anti-austerity protests
Tornadoes leave thousands without power
Google filing error shocks investors
10/21/12: Gunman shoots 7 at Wisconsin spa
Thanks for these posts. Do you think you can update us on the stock market again? It looks like it has finally peaked. I know your models were showing that the stock market was high relative to the underlying social mood.
ReplyDeleteThe market has come down to social mood, so they are about even now.
DeletePaul, the market charts on the moodcompass.com site have been updated. You can look for yourself at the social mood relative to the markets as of Friday.
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