Panic, Violence, and Justice - Dec '11

Highlights: Persian Gulf escalation ∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ More protests ∙ Surge in gas prices near Christmas

While shoring up the economy continues to be a concern as the month begins, worries about global instability expand beyond corporate profits and credit availability in December. Pervasive anxiety accompany negative news headlines as lawmakers and leaders squabble and stubbornly oppose cooperation on needed solutions. Mid to late month the focus is on global unrest, aggression, and possible eruptions of violence. During this period, there is an elevated risk of terrorist activity. Although it is unlikely that Israel will bomb Iran this month, the Persian Gulf situation may reach crisis levels, and a surge in the price of crude oil and gasoline may make Christmas traveling especially difficult. The U.S. government could find itself with an even lower public opinion, and very near a lowered credit rating by the end of the month.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are four major periods indicated for December --

December 7 - 13  Paradigm Shift.   

December 14 - 22  Global Aggression.   
December 23 - 27  Panic and Bad News. 
December 28 - 31  Reset.

(further details available in the full version of MoodCompass)

The above is an excerpt from the December 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Persian Gulf Escalation - Dec '11 (video)

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate a high risk of geopolitical escalation in the Persian Gulf in December 2011.

Persian Gulf Escalation - December 2011

There has been much discussion of Iran lately, and concerns with a possible U.S. aided Israeli strike are high.  While our analysis of global mood and perception for the month of December indeed indicates an escalation of the Persian Gulf situation, it does NOT support the likelihood of an Israeli airstrike, at least in December.  With the primary geopolitical risk area indicated being the Persian Gulf (see map above), one possible scenario is a naval buildup or blockade within the Gulf.  Note that Israel is not indicated as a likely initiator of hostilities.  Also the global distress that would result from an outright attack on Iran is missing from the social map (below).  It should be noted that the social mood factor that is labled "economic" in this map, besides indicating a contraction in spending, also corresponds with risk avoidance, anxiety, and wanting to stay close to family and home.  From this, it seems very likely that residents of the region surrounding the Persian Gulf will be much less sure of their near-term safety in December.

Actual events:
12/1/11: Israel: No Iran strike 'for the moment'
12/4/11: Iran reports downing U.S. drone
12/5/11: Iran warns of wider response
12/11/11: Iran refuses to return U.S. drone; warns of response to 'hostile' act
12/12/11: Iran hints at closing straits of Hormuz
12/13/11: Iran to hold military drills for closing straits of Hormuz
12/22/11: Iran's war games could force US aggression
12/23/11: Iran to start 10 day war games in int'l waters tomorrow

China unrest (as per social map):
12/14//11: China increasing security around embassy after window shot; Chinese village locked in rebellion

China and the Middle East - Erupting this month?

Protests and outrage over governmental failings and corporate greed have been on the rise.  A surprising factor to add to the mix this month may be the people of China, as analysis of global societal mood factors show "panic" and "outrage" peaking in the People's Republic in November (see map below).  This is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Also, North Africa and the Middle East are again showing up as hot beds of protests, unrest, and/or violence, in spite of Ghaddafi's reign being at an end (see map). This indicates a significant increase in social chaos from recent days. This configuration also indicates an increased risk of terrorist activity in the region.

Last, but not least, the developing events in Kosovo bear close watching.  Because Kosovo is within the region showing risks of escalation of unrest and violence, an already volatile situation may become critical.

For more information on the MoodCompass Project visit http://MoodCompass.com.

Actual Events:
11/5/11: 67 dead in northeast Nigeria attacks
11/7/11: Official Israeli websites brought down by "malfunction"
11/9/11: Beijing residents cry foul over the air
11/11/11: 13+ killed in Syria protest violence
11/12/11: Pro-Assad crowd attacks Saudi embassy in Syria
11/15/11: Syrian activists rip flag from Jordanian embassy
11/17/11: Sryia close to civil war;  Syrian army shells villages after defectors attack
11/18/11: Thousands protest in Egypt against army rule
11/19/11: Egyptian police, protesters clash in Tahrir Square ; Violence erupts in Cairo
11/21/11: New clashes in key Cairo square after bloody weekend
11/24/11: Syrian tanks bombard defectors
11/29/11: Iranian protesters storm British Embassy in Tehran

Teetering on the Edge (Again) - Nov 2011

Highlights:  High risk of U.S. Government budget impasse ∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ Extreme societal tension and polarization ∙ In Nature: Heavy rain and snow near the holidays.

      November looks like a busy month for world leaders, as they continue to try to manufacture growth where little can be found.  There is a high risk of a U.S. budget impasse that does not get resolved in time.  The U.S. government perception cycles show high activity (battles) through November 17 (the deadline), shifting to dialogue and negotiations through the 22nd.  The timing would suggest an agreement not reached in time, causing increased societal distress and further distrust of the government as the holidays approach.

      There is a heightened global risk for terrorist activity mid-month, along with increased protests, and possible increase in "random acts" of violence.  In the natural world, an increased chance of heavy rain and snow near the holidays should make travel interesting.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are three major periods indicated for November --

November 1 - 8   Into Action.     
November 9 - 17   Turbulence. 
November 18 -30   It's the Economy, Stupid. 
(further details available in the full version of MoodCompass) 

Global natural events:

November   4 - 16  Active, In Motion.  Nature is in the news.  Elevated risk of unusual or increased tectonic activity.

November 16 - 28   Wet, Stormy.  Increased risk of heavy rain and snow.


The above is an excerpt from the November 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

1, 2, 3 Go! -- The Trigger Point

Whatever global leaders achieve this weekend in their strategic talks, it is unlikely to be global stability, at least in the near term.  The October issue of MoodCompass shows a shift in the perception of global leaders, from "into action" to "delusional" or "in denial" early next week.  This indicates that whatever they come up with, whatever actions they might take, are likely to be seen as insufficient or ineffective.  

On a societal level, the collective mood is emotional and irrational.  People may tend to display irrational or panic behavior, ignoring facts in their decision-making process.  This configuration, in the short term, is often destabilizing to markets, and frequently accompanies increasing volatility.

Excerpt from the October MoodCompass:

October 19 - 31.   Trigger Point.  Increasing instability. People may be displaying irrational or panic behavior.  Global leaders are putting high level plans into action.

A Glitch in the Global Matrix

One can see the European crisis and market turmoil coming to a peak October 3rd and 4th reflected in this excerpt below from the October issue of MoodCompass.  October 4th brought in the period in which the social mood reflected a sense of "new life," as forecasted.  In the short time horizon of market traders and politicians, this was reflected in global stock market rallies, and political negotiations that showed hope of possibly moving past deadlock. 

So what of the current phase entitled "A Glitch?"  The G20 is in negotiations this weekend.  Are they going to break down or be otherwise ineffective as this "chapter" unfolds?  Do global protests begin to appear out of control or become violent in some way?  Something the larger society considers "crazy," "surprising," "contrary," and possibly violent is the likely manifestation of the current configuration.  If possible, staying close to home and staying informed of the latest events may be a prudent course of action.

From the October MoodCompass:

October 1 - 3  An Ending.  Risk aversion is high.  Focus on global economy and stability.  Geopolitical issues.    

October 4 - 12  A New Start.  Global leaders focused on calming things down and restabilizing the global system.  U.S.. government searches for common ground between various groups in dialogue and negotiations. 

October 13 - 18 A Glitch..  Discussions and negotiations may break down.  There's an increased risk of protests, terrorist activity, and "random acts' of violence.

Strategizing Stability - October 2011

October Highlights: Discussion, dialogue, and negotiations∙ Increased risk of terrorist activity ∙ Grass roots protests and movements on the rise ∙ In Nature: Increased volcano and earthquake risk.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:
There are four major periods indicated for October--


October 1 - 3 An Ending.
October 4 - 12 A New Start.
October 13 - 18 A Glitch.
October 19 - 31 Trigger Point.

(further details are available in the October issue of MoodCompass)

Global natural events:

October 1-11 Hot, Active. High energy in the system may enhance storms and flooding. Increased risk of volcanic activity.

October 12 - 18 Windy, Stormy.

October 19 - 31 Unstable. Increased risk of moderate earthquakes.
 
The above is an excerpt from the October 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Quake, Volcano, and Storm Alert - Sept 2011 (video)

Analysis of human perception of nature projected for September 2011

As the U.S. Withers, and the Dollar Dies - September 2011

It may be because this is the ten year anniversary of the September 11 attacks, and the media is reinforcing a societal remembrance of a very traumatic moment in U.S. history.  It could be due to recent events or because of some new tragedy right around the corner.  For whatever reasons, the social mood surrounding the 9/11 anniversary is depressing, the perception of the U.S. government is of an entity that is in serious trouble, and projections for the U.S. Dollar show that it could be in freefall.  Often such depressing moods on a societal level find temporary relief in expressions of violence or warfare.  With such a mood reflecting a global sentiment, will a token global “bad child” act out to divert our attention in the near future?

Highlights: Societal anger turns to gloom and despair∙ U.S. Dollar in freefall ∙ Global leaders in damage control mode ∙ In Nature: Storms, volcanoes, and earthquakes.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events:

There are three major periods indicated for September--

(for more details, see the full version of MoodCompass)

September 1-6  Angry and Divided

September 7-22  [Tales of] the Demise of the U.S. (or U.S. Dollar)

September 23-30  Turning the Page

Global natural events:

September 1 - 14  Sunny, Stormy, and Active. Elevated risk of storms, floods, and volcanic eruptions mixed with what may be relatively benign weather.

September 15 - 26  Nature vs. Civilization. Watch for some disruptions to travel, communications, food production or food distribution. Elevated earthquake risk.

September 27 - 30  Hot and Active. Look for occasional storms and continued heat.

 
The above is an excerpt from the September 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

E. Asia War Risk - Sept - Oct 2011 (video)

Analysis of changes in collective mood and perception indicate an increased risk of military escalation in Asia.

In Hot Water, Global Weather Forecast, August 2011 (video)

Children illustrate the global weather themes for the August MoodCompass forecast (analysis of human perception of nature)

All Sink or Swim Together - August 2011

Wall Street has been hanging in there, while more lose jobs and have trouble making ends meet. Resource shortages are becoming significant for a growing number of people in the world. The U.S. government has been playing an odd mix of hot potato and Russian roulette. While the immediate U.S. debt crisis will be resolved one way or another, the debt of overconsumption continues to run up to frightening levels, causing earth systems to become less able to support our destructive habits. The lack of balance between the “haves” and “have-nots,” and between what we take and give back to our planet, our only home, will not continue to remain unreconciled indefinitely. The teetering of the scales are beginning to become apparent.

Highlights: Denial continues by global leaders and general public ∙ U.S. government crisis, push for leadership ∙ Social agitation and increasing risk of violent outbreaks ∙ In Nature: Strong storms, excessive heat, and fires.

Socioeconomic and Geopolitical events: There are three major periods indicated for August--
August 2-8 Delusion and Denial
August 9-15 Panic
August 16-31 Transformation
(for more details, see the full version of MoodCompass)

Global natural events:
August 1 – 4 Lacking, sick and hot. Watch for more news stories of drought, famine, and heat.
August 5 – 16 Water and panic. Look for rain, storms, and nature-related panic.
August 17 – 26 Hot, destructive, and stormy. Watch for excessive heat, lightning, nature-related chaos, and fires.
August 27 – 31 Active, hot. Heat continues. Occasional storms. Elevated risk of volcanic eruption.

The above is an excerpt from the August 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Destruction, Denial, and Despair - July 2011

Highlights: Global situation continues to deteriorate; global leaders in denial ∙ People grow tired of bad news ∙ U.S. government chaos ∙ Earthquake watch, Southern California

Special Alert: Serious Flooding and Cyclones, North America

Natural events:
June 29 – July 6 Risk of high loss natural event; earthquake risk, Southern California.
July 7 – 11 Possible natural event seen as serious, deadly, and/or related to disease.
July 19 – 27 Elevated risk of serious flooding and cyclones, N. America.

The above is an excerpt from the July 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Earthquake and Flood Alert N. America June/July 2011 (video)

Analysis of human perception of nature projected for June - early July 2011: Southern California earthquake watch and more storms and flooding for North America.

The U.S. Strikes Back - June 2011

Highlights: Global system under duress ∙ People feeling unsafe and risk averse ∙ U.S. government doles out death and justice ∙ Earthquake watch, Southern California ∙ Storm and flood watch, E. North America

Special Alert: U.S. strikes hard at an enemy. Is it N. Korea?

Natural events: June 9-14 and June 28 – July 3 are the greatest risk periods for natural events with moderate to high losses. Of particular interest is Southern California, for which a moderate earthquake watch is issued. Also, the Eastern half of N. America looks like a candidate for more storms and flooding in June.


The above is an excerpt from the June 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

MoodCompass is now available to the general public. You can view the current issue at http://moodcompass.com/.

The U.S. Strikes Back - June 2011 Alert (video)

Highlights: Collective mood analysis indicates a dramatic change in global context associated with 1) A group or nation crossing a line, end of May. 2) The U.S. striking back in the month of June. Technical presentation illustrates.

Edge of a Cliff - May/June 2011 (video)

Candid discussion of the scale of events estimated to occur late May through June.

May 2011 - The Edge of the Cliff

Highlights: New level of global violence/warfare ∙ Increased patriotism/nationalism and willingness to fight for beliefs ∙ U.S. government decreased capacity to make rational choices ∙ Special Alert: Violence and instability in Korea and/or China

The above is an excerpt from the May 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Starting this month, MoodCompass is available to the general public. You can view the current issue at http://moodcompass.com/.

Terrorism, War & Asia - May 2011 Alert (video)

Analysis of collective mood factors indicate acceleration of global violence mid to late May. Most likely scenarios are Korean military escalation or E. Asia terrorist attack. Technical presentation illustrates.

U.S. in Crisis - Extreme Event Alert - March 2011 (video)

Analysis of mood factors for U.S. society indicate an extreme event, likely mid month.

Significant Weather Events - Mar 2011 Video

Highlights: Destructive event East Asia. Severe storms N. America. Volcano alert Hawaii. MoodCompass weather forecast for March 2011.

March 2011 - The Bigger They Are...

The wave of unrest and violence which began in North Africa, continues to sweep around the world and arrives in the Americas in the month of March. With tension between parties and ideologies at extremes in the United States, it should not be surprising if it takes an explosion of violence to restore a semblance of sanity, even if only for a brief moment. This could be the beginning of a long and painful decline; QE2 or 3 or 4 not enough to put Humpty together again. The Empire has no clothes.

Human perception of nature in March is “stormy” in North America; a fitting parallel. Asia, becoming increasingly troubled or ill this month in a socioeconomic sense, shows a parallel in a potentially destructive natural event associated with sickness or disease. As the month comes to a close, and the geopolitical picture becomes more ominous, don’t be surprised if a volcano or two joins in the chorus.

March Highlights:
Civil unrest/violence ∙ U.S. instability ∙ Asia environmental crisis ∙ Stock market sell-off ∙ Storms, volcanoes, and earthquakes

The above is an excerpt from the March 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

February 2011 – Animosity and Rumors of War

In January, we began to get a glimpse of a shift in global context for 2011. In the U.S., a congresswoman was shot, and in North Africa, uprisings and revolutions threatened global stability. February appears to continue in the same direction, but with added intensity, with mid-month likely to be climactic in some way. After that, the mood shifts from a focus on instability, toward more direct or ominous geopolitical threats as well as an increased focus on terror and terrorism.

Nature is perceived in February to be extremely antagonistic to the modern civilized lifestyle. Watch for blizzards and other natural events to disrupt travel and possibly cause heavy losses of life or property.

February Highlights:
Civil unrest/violence ∙ War Talk ∙ Terrorism Concerns ∙ Stock market sell-off ∙ Disruptive & destructive natural events


The above is an excerpt from the February 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Significant Weather Events - Feb 2011 Videocast

Highlights: Destructive Event warnings for Hawaii, S. California, and Far East Asia, Heavy snow in N.E. United States, & N. Europe. MoodCompass weather forecast for February 2011.

Violence & War Talk - Special Alert Video Feb 2011

Global mood trends indicate an increase of violence and war rhetoric in February 2011.

January 2011 – A New Normal for a New Year

The year begins with hope for the future, and optimism that things are finally getting back on track—economic recovery perhaps is possible. Yet, before the year is into double digit days, a major paradigm shift should be seen to be taking place. The catalyst for this shift may lie in the geopolitical picture. In a global economy, how can any single country or region expect to do well when another is in disarray? Is the U.S. debt going to remain largely irrelevant while European countries and states within the United States struggle with defaults and restructuring? With a significant escalation in the Korea situation likely (see maps below) and Asian economies sure to be directly impacted, how can the West expect to remain immune?

Given the collective mood for the month, January appears to be a month of rebalancing. Exuberance and recklessness should give way to caution and risk aversion. Gestures of cooperation on the part of world leaders and governments should give way to increasing displays of isolationism and protectionism. Attempts at political harmony could turn to outright enmity. Overbought markets should give back some of last year’s gains, and the U.S. Dollar should make quite a comeback against other currencies.

The human perception of the natural world exhibits this same theme of rebalancing in an aversion of excess energy. Some of the ways this could manifest would be below normal temperatures, heavy precipitation, and releasing of tectonic energy in the form of earthquakes.

By the end of January there may be a strong feeling that the year has begun in a wrong direction, and a collective cry may be heard, “Could we just start the New Year over?”

The above is an excerpt from the January 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.