U.S. Seeking Shelter June 21-27, 2015 (video)

U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows Americans feeling nervous about events in the world and within the U.S.  A BIG week for U.S. people.



Update 6/20/15: In the areas forecasted for this week (beginning Sunday) as likely areas of Manic mood or disruptive events, on Saturday evening two gunmen in unrelated incidents shot at a group of people. One was in Michigan, the west boundary of the area we mentioned, and the other was in Pennsylvania, the east boundary of the region highlighted for this week.  While we celebrate that the method we are using is apparently working well, it was disturbing and a bit creepy to get something like this "correct" (even though a few hours outside of our time window).

New Wave of U.S. Unrest: June 14-20, 2015 (video)

U.S. social mood "weather forecast" shows a new wave of protests and manic mood coming to America in the week ahead.

Update 6/17/15: As noted in the video for increased risk of violence on 16th and 17th, and by location highlighting several East Coast states including S. Carolina , 9 dead in S. Carolina shooting at church Bible study class.

Update: 6/20/15: Yes, there was a new wave of unrest/protests this week. Thousands protest Confederate Flag in South Carolina

U.S. Outlook for June 2015 (from Social Mood data)

June is a turning point for the United States internally and internationally.  The chart below is the overall flow of social mood as projected for June 2015. :

(click to enlarge)

Note to our followers: The addition of geographic analysis to our toolkit allows us greater precision than ever before in next-month future forecasting.  Follow along with the news-flo this month and see how well we did translating social mood data into future headlines.

Week 1 (through June 6): Mild and ongoing economic concerns are present, but a major U.S. economic event is unlikely.  Most of the stimulus for economic issues likely come from outside the U.S. (Greece?).

Week 2 (through June 13): There may be residual economic concerns from any events of the first week of June, but they should dissipate during this period. Any stimulus for new economic concerns should primarily come from outside the U.S.  Watch for a significant development in U.S. – China relations near June 11. 

Week 3 (through June 20): There is a moderate risk of civil unrest or disruptive event(s) during this period (see map below).  The region at highest risk is the Eastern States, but there is an elevated risk throughout the country.  Manic mood may also show up financially as rising indicators of inflation.

(click map to enlarge)

 

Week 4 (through June 27): The outlook of Americans should begin to take a more serious tone this week.  The region North of Texas has the highest projection of this mood factor during this period (see map below, left).  However, this central location may also be indicative of a national shift.  A new wave of economic concerns and domestic issues are starting to take hold in the U.S. There is a moderate risk of civil unrest or disruptive event(s) during this period, possibly expanding or continuing from last week (see map below, right).  The region at highest risk is near Michigan and Ohio, but an elevated risk remains throughout the country.  Manic mood may also show up financially as rising indicators of inflation.

(click maps to enlarge)

Week 5 (through July 4): The outlook of Americans should become much more serious in tone this week, expanding from last week (see map below, left).  The "heartland" of America has the highest projection of this mood factor during this period. Economic concerns and domestic issues are growing and are likely a strong focus of politicians in Washington D.C. and traders on Wall Street as this mood factor is elevated in both D.C. and New York City (see map below, right).  These issues are not necessarily limited to those areas.

(click maps to enlarge)
 

A Glitch in the Global Matrix

One can see the European crisis and market turmoil coming to a peak October 3rd and 4th reflected in this excerpt below from the October issue of MoodCompass.  October 4th brought in the period in which the social mood reflected a sense of "new life," as forecasted.  In the short time horizon of market traders and politicians, this was reflected in global stock market rallies, and political negotiations that showed hope of possibly moving past deadlock. 

So what of the current phase entitled "A Glitch?"  The G20 is in negotiations this weekend.  Are they going to break down or be otherwise ineffective as this "chapter" unfolds?  Do global protests begin to appear out of control or become violent in some way?  Something the larger society considers "crazy," "surprising," "contrary," and possibly violent is the likely manifestation of the current configuration.  If possible, staying close to home and staying informed of the latest events may be a prudent course of action.

From the October MoodCompass:

October 1 - 3  An Ending.  Risk aversion is high.  Focus on global economy and stability.  Geopolitical issues.    

October 4 - 12  A New Start.  Global leaders focused on calming things down and restabilizing the global system.  U.S.. government searches for common ground between various groups in dialogue and negotiations. 

October 13 - 18 A Glitch..  Discussions and negotiations may break down.  There's an increased risk of protests, terrorist activity, and "random acts' of violence.

U.S. in Crisis - Extreme Event Alert - March 2011 (video)

Analysis of mood factors for U.S. society indicate an extreme event, likely mid month.

March 2011 - The Bigger They Are...

The wave of unrest and violence which began in North Africa, continues to sweep around the world and arrives in the Americas in the month of March. With tension between parties and ideologies at extremes in the United States, it should not be surprising if it takes an explosion of violence to restore a semblance of sanity, even if only for a brief moment. This could be the beginning of a long and painful decline; QE2 or 3 or 4 not enough to put Humpty together again. The Empire has no clothes.

Human perception of nature in March is “stormy” in North America; a fitting parallel. Asia, becoming increasingly troubled or ill this month in a socioeconomic sense, shows a parallel in a potentially destructive natural event associated with sickness or disease. As the month comes to a close, and the geopolitical picture becomes more ominous, don’t be surprised if a volcano or two joins in the chorus.

March Highlights:
Civil unrest/violence ∙ U.S. instability ∙ Asia environmental crisis ∙ Stock market sell-off ∙ Storms, volcanoes, and earthquakes

The above is an excerpt from the March 2011 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

Turmoil, Panic, and Gridlock – December 2010

The Grinch may very well steal Christmas this year. December is looking to be a month of crises: economic meltdowns and high market volatility; geopolitical situations at critical levels; widespread social turmoil and civil unrest; and governments whose leadership is sorely needed, found to be paralyzed in gridlock.

The natural world looks to be a big part of the headlines this month as well. Forecasted human perception of the natural world is full of extremes, including possibilities of increased volcanic activity in South America and major storms both in North America and Europe.

What is striking about all of this is that it shows up at all. This is a season where traditionally people want to focus on family and the holidays. However, this year, it appears that something could be unusual or shocking enough to provoke moderate panic responses on a societal level. This year, something is different. We began the year saying that in 2010 “the bill comes due, the party’s over.” The big consumption party, and the year, may be finishing up together.

The above is an excerpt from the December 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

October 2010 – Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters

People are sick and tired of bad news and empty promises. There is talk of an economic recovery and a recession being over, but things still look as shaky and uncertain as ever. They don’t trust their governments to fix things, but no one seems to know exactly what to do. As collective mood continues to sink, governments focus on stimulating “the economy” and encouraging consumption. With governments treating symptoms, and not the larger problems much too inconvenient to publicly name and face, their interventions only forestall the inevitable. The rubber band will surely stretch as far as it can possibly go. When it does finally snap, it will not be pretty.

With frustration high, and tempers fragile, watch for increasing frustration to be expressed in rallies and protests. There will likely be heightened interest in the subject of terrorism. The geopolitical scene could be tricky, as global leaders are caught in the same sea of frustration and impatience as everyone else. Key hot spots to watch this month are Iran, Venezuela, N. Korea, and Nigeria. China is more likely than ever to make any attempted diplomatic solutions through the United Nations nearly impossible.

So how might October’s unfriendliness show up in the natural world? With a lot of energy in the system, cyclones are a high risk, even at this late date in the season. Tornadoes and typhoons may not yet be done for the year in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere is not likely to see the cyclones, but they could have their own version of storm to share in the global moment.

The above is an excerpt from the October 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation. To view the latest projections related to human perception of the natural world, see Earth Cycles.

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Addendum-- Tempers, Tantrums, and Twisters in the News:

10/1/10: The Twister of 2010

10/2/10: Violent protests after Dutch outlaw squatting

10/5/10: Bible college student shot dead in dorm room.

10/6/10: IMF warns against currency wars. 25 NATO Fuel Tankers Torched.

10/7/10: Deadly blast hits famed Sufi shrine in Pakistan.

10/8/10: Man dressed in black with jack-o'-lantern opens fire at elementary school in Carlsbad, CA.

10/9/10: 8 year-old stabbed while playing video games by stranger.

10/13/10: Continuing French Strike, Unions vs. Sarkosy may result in fuel shortages

10/15/10: Greece: Police clash with protesters at the Acropolis.

Woman in anger management class stabs classmate

10/16/10: Thousands protest in both China and Japan over disputed islands.

10/17/10: Off duty police detective killed over parking space dispute.

10/19/10: Gunman, suicide bomber attack Chechnyan parliment

5 shots fired at Pentegon, shattering windows.

10/20/10: France in turmoil as strikes continue

10/21/10: Major N. California mall set ablaze by man w/ possible bomb.

10/29/10: North, South Korea soldiers exchange gunfire at DMZ.

More shots at Marine Museum in evolving sniper case.

Shooting at Walmart by ex-employee.

Tempers, Tantrums & Twisters - Oct 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Social chaos & violence, Economic impatience, Terrorism Focus, Iran, Venezuela, and N. Korea issues. A global mood "weather forecast" for October 2010.

Global Destabilization - August 2010

There is an unusual destabilizing configuration that appeared briefly in April, May and June. This configuration of both entropy factors working together did not appear at all in the month of July. In August, however, it runs solid throughout the entire month. If July was the edge of the cliff, August may be the first few steps off of it.

Socially, global unrest should continue to increase with Asia being of particular concern. Geopolitical tension should be quite high with several hot spots ready to erupt or escalate at the slightest provocation. Again, Asia is a focal point. The fabled economic recovery continues to be extremely fragile. Will it be able to tolerate such an unstable global scenario?

The above is an excerpt from the August 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

The Precipice of Economic Collapse - July 2010

Independence Day in the United States is usually a call to celebrate unity and to be thankful for freedom from tyranny and oppression. With the collective mood continuing to deteriorate, there is no room for such positive ideation. It is more likely that this 4th of July, the theme of revolution and revolutionary war will be emphasized. Civil unrest and protests in the United States should escalate this month. Outbreaks of violence are increasingly likely. In spite of the constitutional declaration, there is no “WE THE PEOPLE” in America.

Globally, the mood should also reflect anger and fragmentation. Geopolitical tension should be quite high, while cooperation among world leaders difficult to discern. The world economy is on dangerous ground, and increased discussion of an up and coming sequel to the “Great Depression” is likely. Investor panic and high market volatility should be expected. Will the globalization paradigm continue to survive? Or, if the trend continues, will global goods, services, and destinations, at some point, become a nostalgic memory?

The above is an excerpt from the July 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

July is like June on Steroids

Look for this month's blog post (and MoodCompass excerpt) this weekend. In the meantime, think of July 2010 like June 2010 on steroids.

Protests, Violence, and U.S. Debt - June 2010

With a high Manic social mood configuration, global unrest should be extreme this month— violent escalations are likely.

In the economic arena, China and Europe had their turns at crises last month. In June, the economic focus is N. America. Worries about excessive U.S. debt, possible sell-offs in U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Dollars, and discussions of failing U.S. states may arise as the U.S. does its version of last month's European debt crisis.

The situations in the Middle East and Korea are approaching critical levels. Successful resolution and de-escalation are urgent and crucial to global stability.

With the perception of nature reflecting chaos in Eastern N. America, more tornadoes are likely. Nature is perceived as destructive in the Far East. Because of this, a highly destructive event warning has been issued for Eastern China, Korea, and Japan for the month of June.

The above reflects highlights from the June 2010 issue of MoodCompass, a publication of A New Story Foundation.

Protests, Violence, and U.S. Debt - June Videocast

Highlights: Increasing global unrest, violence; U.S. debt worries; Middle East and Korea near critical; Far East high loss natural event. A global mood "weather forecast" for June 2010.

Fear, Hate, and Eruptions - May 2010

Tempers are high and patience is thin. Fear and uncertainty can only be held so long before they crystallize into hate. With people suspicious of their governments and each other, at some point government officials will begin to fear the people. Civil unrest should continue to increase on a global scale this month. There will be some point, perhaps this month, where governments will begin to take measures to insure against what is considered unacceptable levels of instability.

The month of May is a tipping point. The social mood configuration bears an uncanny resemblance to that seen in March 2009, except this time it represents a major change in trend to the downside. Whether it represents a major downturn for several months or for several years is yet to be seen. However, odds are that it is the latter. With the social mood continuing to sour internally, and the geopolitical situation becoming increasingly unstable, hopes for a sustained economic recovery could begin to look doubtful.

In addition to the high potential for social eruptions, it is likely that the natural world parallels, volcanoes and earthquakes, are in the news again in May. The highest likelihood for tectonic events is in the Americas; but the Iran/Iraq area is also a candidate. A highly destructive event of some type is likely for Far East Asia (i.e. E. China, Japan, and Korea) and/or Papua New Guinea.

As we watch the ramifications of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill unfold, we will be faced with visible evidence of civilization’s destructive impacts on the life potential of the Earth. Is it too far a leap to consider that humanity is not immune to the downturn in Earth’s productivity? Will we continue to look for props, patches and loopholes, or do we have the capacity to pause and consider a course correction while such choices still remain? If humanity and the rest of nature indeed have a shared tipping point, such choices would need to be made rather quickly, if at all.

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The preceding was an excerpt from the May 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Fear, Hate, and Poverty: The New Global Pandemics - May 2010 Videocast

Highlights: Growing global unrest, economic "recovery" in jeopardy, Middle East and Korea risks increase, more volcanoes and earthquakes. A global mood "weather forecast" for May 2010.

U. S. Distress, Middle East Instability, and Volcanic Eruptions - April 2010

Class warfare, racial slurs, and political ideologies at impasse; world stock markets climbing high while so many can’t find work or make ends meet. The tension is high, so thick you can almost touch it. Something, it seems, is ready to blow. The internal situations of several nations, including the United States, Iran, and Thailand could get fairly intense this month. A parallel in the natural world, almost a metaphor for the human experience, is tectonic pressure seeking release—and a global interest in volcanoes.

The United States shows a mood configuration for April, which if it were that of an individual, would be someone experiencing high anxiety, stress, and agitation. For U.S. society, look for the conflict of ideologies that has been polarizing the nation to escalate. The degree of tension in the U.S. may be disturbing enough that international investors seek alternatives to the U.S. Dollar and U.S. markets. There may also be a natural world metaphor for the U.S., as instability shows up in a tectonic event, most likely in the Pacific Northwest.

Iran’s social mood, if it were an individual, would be someone in deep emotional turmoil. For the Iranian people, this could indicate a period where loyalties are assessed, and those found to be disloyal to those in power to be harshly punished. The manic configuration in E. Asia indicates a good possibility that the situation in Thailand could degenerate into chaos. The manifestation in China may be more economic—concerns with inflation and economic bubbles.

The primary geopolitical hotspot for April is the Middle East—notably, Iran, Israel, and Syria. N. Korea could be an issue as well. As these scenarios play themselves out over the next few months, the effects on global trade, global markets, and global stability should be monitored closely. The most likely course is one of increasing volatility.

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The preceding was an excerpt from the April 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

U.S. Distress, Middle East Crisis, and Volcanic Eruptions - April 2010 Videocast

Highlights: U.S. internal conflict intensifies, Middle East escalation, turmoil in Iran; chaos in Bangkok, heightened global interest in volcanos. A global mood "weather forecast" for April 2010.

Global Violence, Destabilization, and Disasters - March 2010

March is said to come in like a lion, yet along with the nascent Chinese Year, it makes its entrance in 2010 as a tiger-- and a ferocious one at that. The month begins with global tempers high and violence on the rise, as the mood factors indicate a period of global destabilization and violence. It is likely that concerns with civil unrest and even terrorism are at extremes. Worries about geopolitical escalation should be elevated as well.

By the second week of the month, geopolitical escalation could well become a reality. There are indications of concerns during this period with resource availability, and the price of crude oil and other commodities could rise accordingly. Hoarding is a possibility.

As the mid-month point passes, the collective mood indicates a safety-seeking preference; economic losses are likely to accelerate with steep market declines possible. Concurrently, the human perception of the natural world signifies a high risk for event(s) of which losses of life and property are probable.

As the month comes to a close, global leaders are likely to be in panic mode as they attempt to keep up with the extreme pace of unfolding events. The U.S. government also shows indications of being in a crisis mode as it tries to forge a way forward. There should be an attempt to assess losses during this final period and for markets to make their best efforts to stabilize. While valiant attempts may be made throughout the month to catch this tiger by the tail, it’s sure to be a difficult, if not dangerous venture.

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The preceding was an excerpt from the March 2010 issue of MoodCompass. (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)

Economic Downturn, Natural Disasters, and Terrorism - March 2010 Videocast

Highlights: accelerating economic losses, social discontent, extreme interest in terrorism and global violence, and widespread natural "event(s)." A global mood "weather forecast" for March 2010.