Unexpected Explosions of Violence

Violent explosion!  I read those words a few days ago in conjunction with the unexpected eruption of a volcano in Chile.  It made me wonder what was about to happen next.  Unlike many, I do not believe this is an isolated incident, nor is it “random.”  It is part of an overall pattern in play right now (MoodCompass Type: SSE).  This is Nature’s expression of it for the moment.  This same pattern in the human world can look like sudden geopolitical escalation, violent protests, or even terrorist activity.  In the markets it often goes with sudden spikes in the price of oil and gasoline.  There was a violent explosion with an unexpected twist in the news today -- two hostages were inadvertently killed in a drone strike, albeit last January.


Expect the unexpected in world news over the next week or two.  Expect surprising explosive events or violence with an unexpected twist.  Personally, I recommend you do what you can to keep your world calm and centered.  Things will likely get worked out one way or another on the global scene so that “business as usual” may prevail.  There is quite an investment in the status quo, and for now, keeping it in tact is strong motivation for world leaders.  So, whatever volcanoes, skirmishes, or other unexpected explosions appear over the next week or two, do your best to stay cool!

U.S. Disaster Could be Imminent, August 9, 2013

We have continued to track social mood in the background these past few months, and have had nothing much to say about disasters for some time.  However, we have to mention this spike in disaster risk that has been forming over the last few days, and has just turned critical. 

 

According to U.S. social mood factors, the most likely type of disaster is MoodCompass type S SE.  For human caused disasters, this corresponds with terrorist attacks, violent protests, riots, and other anti-establishment violence.  We are all already aware of a high alert in many of our embassies overseas.  For natural disasters, the most likely type would be fires or earthquakes. 

 

According to NOAA, there is no extremely bad weather in the forecast.  Yet, globally, there is an extreme risk for a natural disaster on the scale of last year's Superstorm Sandy (worse than that if it happens outside the U.S.) on August 9 (which may also continue over the weekend).  The chart that shows the spike in natural disaster risk is below.

 

Update 8/10/13: The spike was a one day window, apparently we got through OK.  However, this indicates that we may be in for a time of increased global crises and both human and natural disasters.  Will keep you posted.

 

Earthquakes and Violence: A Path to Vulnerability - Global Mood thru April 25

Global Violence Warning: According to social mood changes, there is an extreme risk of terrorist activity and/or geopolitical escalation on a global scale after April 17.


The social mood through April 25 reflects aggression, ideological warfare, and sacrifice for a "higher purpose." People want action, and are willing to take matters into their own hands if necessary.  The Boston Marathon attack is one example of this, but the social mood signature gets even more extreme after April 17.

The clues we get about the type of events come from MoodCompass type NE- "victim of unprovoked attack" or "vulnerable."  Also, U.S. social mood continues to be extremely manic, overconfident, and optimistic in spite of the destruction of Walda, in spite of mass stabbing at a Texas college, and in spite of the more recent events in Boston.  We can stand together proudly and affirm that this is the resilient "American Spirit," however, the mood shows the type of extremity that occurs when it is grasping at straws to hang in there.  A change is coming.

This is a global alert, and this might manifest in events in Europe, in the U.S., or elsewhere.  There are likely to be direct or indirect economic consequences of the events.  Currently, terrorist activity, or violence propagated by disturbed individuals or fringe groups is more likely than new warfare by geopolitical powers, but that could change during the alert period.

There is a high risk for significant natural events during this period.  The types most associated with this configuration are earthquakes, violent storms, and wildfires.  If there are any large volcanic eruptions, globally, that will indicate the shift has occurred that makes warfare more likely than a terrorist attack.

Whether violence or earthquakes or some other destabilizing set of events, the net result to balance out the social mood and deflate this potential for increasing scale disasters is clear.  The time of the unfettered manic mood needs to come to a close, spending and consumption need to slow, and focus needs to shift from never-ending expansion to more immediate needs of food on the table, safety, family and community.  The kinds of nurturing, community-oriented behaviors that people displayed in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon event was a start.  It certainly would be less destructive if we as a society were to move in this direction easily, and not through the darker version of "vulnerability to unprovoked attack," or some other type of victimization.  For now, the mood signature is saying, "victim" is the more likely path.  Perhaps this will change.  Perhaps we can do our part to change it.

For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

Likely Location for a U.S. Event

While the MoodCompass Team got to be on the news for getting the location of the Japan earthquake/tsunami right in March of 2011, due to funding cuts and lack of personnel, we have had to devise less labor intensive methods for getting potential location data for future significant events.

If the event that still looks like it is preparing to show up, does indeed manifest, we would like to give a head's up to the most likely areas.  The method we are using to do this is still experimental, and we will need a few more incidents to verify that we are on the right track.  If a major tragic event originates in the United States in March or early April, the most likely region for it to occur is Central California, second likely, the Southwestern U.S., and third, the Northeastern U.S., although it could occur in less likely places-- such is the nature of probability.  Looking at it globally, if it happened in March, it would most likely occur on the West coast of North America, Northern Africa, or Europe.  For an event that ends up manifesting in early April, we do not yet have sufficient data to say where the highest locations globally would be.

And, if the "storm clouds" dissipate and there is no event to be expected, we will be very happy to share that here.



For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on .

When Depressed Social Mood Explodes

Since early December, the social mood as obserbed in Hawaii's people as well as local current events has been extremely somber, similar to how the mood of a person experiencing a severe depression would appear.  The peak of this seems to have been yesterday's news of the death of the well-respected, long term senator, Daniel Inouye.

The MoodCompass team has been watching for signs of a shift in this social depression.  When a person has a serious depression and then begins to come out of it, whether through medication, treatment, or time, they are briefly in heightened danger.  All the strong emotions that have for the most part been "depressed" become energized and may show up in bouts of rage, destructive behavior, even suicidal behavior.

Today, marks the first sign in weeks of a shift from that extremely serious, depressed social mood configuration.  Where it goes next is crucial.  Does it take on the bipolar configuration and move to a manic pattern?  Does it become rageful or destructive?  Or, will it move to a more benign, life-affirming configuration?

Because we are currently on alert for a potential Hawaiian crisis, the possibility of a developing  explosive mood (or event) is something to pay careful attention to.

For more information on the MoodCompass project, see http://moodcompass.com.
 

Global Mood: Destructive

The recent surge in mass violence episodes by individual actors should begin to subside after the 15th, but continues to remain slightly elevated. Destructive acts (or interventions) by governments and institutions are more likely than usual.

Destructive Natural events are possible during this period. The types most associated with the current pattern are volcanoes, earthquakes, unstable/destructive weather, and toxic environments.

For more information on the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
 

Angry, Explosive, Destructive Sept. 14-18, 2012

The social mood is flashing red as we go into this weekend.  In fact, there has been no time this year that such a potentially dangerous collective mood has registered. There are symptomatic events in the news such as the Chicago teacher's strike and the Arab world up in arms, attacking U.S. embassies. You may even have noticed yourself or the people around you feeling extra edgy, argumentative, even explosive.  This mood pattern continues through next Tuesday, so do your best to keep a cool head and prevent any permanent damage to otherwise good relationships.

For further details on the social mood "temperature," and the latest alerts see moodcompass.com.

Violence / Disaster Alert Sept. 11-22, 2012

In both the months of July and August, there was an increase in the level of violence in the category of mass shootings. In July, 12 people were killed and 59 wounded in the theatre shooting in Aurora, CO.  In August, 7 were killed in a shooting at a Sikh temple in Wisconsin.  Several other shootings occured by disgruntled employees, people mad about eviction notices, and a student upset about being bullied.  Increases in these types of events can be predicted.

 

Our Societal Risk Thermometer, which uses changes in social mood to detect the liklihood of such events 1-2 weeks in advance of their occurance, is showing a possible double whammy just ahead.  It is showing a concurrent warning of a mass violent event and a disaster or upheaval type of event.  The warnings for the individual signals are given on our website moodcompass.com.  While these could be two different events or series of event types, with both signals peaking nearly at the same time, does that signal some larger scale event, a violent disaster of some type?  Is the scale of loss of such an event the sum of the two signals (greater than 14 people) or the product (greater than 33 people)?  With limited experience dealing with concurrent signals, we are uncertain how this affects the expected manifestation.

 

Also, as mentioned on our website, estimated casualties are based on the expected impact to U.S. society, and provided to give a sense of scale.  If the event(s) occur outside of the United States, losses of life and/or property could be substantially greater. 

 

Stay alert and keep a cool head, especially over the next two weeks. 

 

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Update 9/11: Egypt protesters breach U.S. embassy over insulting film

            9/12: U.S. Ambassador to Libya and 3 others American diplomats are killed

            9/14: Death toll rises as protests rage across Muslim world over Muhammad mocking video

            9/18: More than 13 people killed in Afghanistan Suicide Attack over film           

            9/22: Nineteen killed, 200 wounded in violent protests in Pakistan over anti-Islam film

 

For the record, this is what was published on moodcompass.com as of Sept. 9:

There is a high risk for violent outbursts, violent protests, and/or terrorist activities on the scale of 3-5* casualties, especially between September 11-18.

There is a high risk for event(s) perceived as a disaster or upheaval with casualties greater than 11*, especially between September 14-22.

Note: The period in which both risks overlap is September 14-18. The effect that concurrent high risks have on likely casualties has not yet been determined.

*Estimated casualties are provided to give a sense of scale of expected impact to U.S. society. Also, if the event(s) occur outside of the United States, loss of life and/or property could be substantially greater.