Sunday, September 2, 2007
Geopolitical Storms! - U.S. Markets and Mood - September 2007
This is the script for this month's U.S. socioeconomic video forecast:
Greetings, We’ve had fun these past few months making US Markets and Mood forecast videos. This month, however it didn’t seem right to make a funny video. This month, from all appearances, doesn’t look very funny. There is a combination of mood factors for September that deserves something different. So, this month is more of a heart to heart chat. I’ll tell you what it is that we are looking at—you decide for yourself what it means. We’ll start with the lighter side for the month, the stock market and the dollar:
Stock Market: Unlike last month, with the markets ruled by fear and panic at the slightest rumor, most of September should find the markets focused on data and fundamentals. This shift towards rationality should be noticeable by the end of the first week. It is short-lived however, and by the end of the month, expect a full on return to panic.
US Dollar: As for the dollar, look for confusion, as if a shell game was being played. You may pick the first shell, which does look pretty good, that the dollar is going down. You may pick the second shell, which has potential later in the month, which is that the dollar is going up. The third shell may be the best pick, but what is actually under that is a big secret, and we may never get to see what was underneath it. Now, as we continue, I’m going to ask you to piece together a puzzle with me. First let’s look at the mood factors for U.S. Society in general:
U.S. Society: American society is feeling gloomy and a bit haggard after the onslaught of bad economic news last month. One possible response is to go deeper into despair, but that is not what is showing up for this month. The likely way Americans in general will respond to this, is to shift focus to a few designated “bad guys” out in the world. There are many possibilities to choose from—China and Iran are among the recent favorites, but a burst of creativity could even bring in a new villain. This alone, is not a big deal, and nothing new. However, let’s look next at the U.S. government’s mood for this month:
U.S. Government: We all know that both the president and congress have had extremely low approval ratings for some time. Yet, for whatever reason, the indications are that the U.S. Government comes across to the American people in September as both conciliatory and protector, as benevolent and righteous; and if pushed by outside forces, as an Avenger. Another puzzle piece is the energy markets:
Energy Markets: The mood factors for the energy markets indicate extreme volatility and could be full of surprises—the biggest of which should be near the end of the month. There may be times that rationality intervenes and keeps the moves from getting out of hand, but a combination of extreme weather and looming geopolitical tensions may cause panic to win out over reason in the end.
Summary: In summary, the focus seems to shift this month from internal to external factors; and from economic to geopolitical. Whether this means more product recalls with China, more name calling between the U.S. and Iranian presidents, or something more serious we can not know. It seemed to us to be markedly different than what we have been looking at, and it seemed best to frankly share our concerns with you. Take care of you and yours this month. This is Dr. Cari with A New Story—Be well, and be safe.