Saturday, June 27, 2009

The Next Six Months -- A Volatile World

I’d like to give you a heads up on the big picture, as A New Story Foundation has just completed a six month global mood and market outlook. Here is a brief summary for July - December 2009.

Look for global tensions to flare this summer and reach a peak in the fall. If the usual players are involved, then look for: 1) The issue regarding the US Dollar and world reserve currency should continue to increase tensions with the US, China, and Russia. 2) Russia is likely to be doing the natural gas hostage play again, increasing tensions with Europe and former Soviet States. 3) Also, watch for a hot spot in the Middle East due to the instability in Iran, and possible nervousness on the part of Israel and/or Iraq. 4) North Korea should continue to be an uncertain annoyance in the background.

The global economic picture should continue to deteriorate, and markets should generally be down to sideways through October. Unemployment should climb well beyond current levels. Look for valiant government efforts to turn things around by the end of the year. Near year's end should be the beginnings of a turnaround in sentiment that should continue into early 2010. Expect a surge of hope (or denial) in November, and an attempt to see “silver linings” within a context of bad data or news in December.

Stay well,


  1. The constant is status quo. All govts. maintain an underlying hold on "their people". Unstable occurences are a natural phenomena but all people default back to security. That's the hold of religion, for example. Even tumultuous events such as war, when over, bring us right back where we started (for the most part). Any period of history is laced with disorder, but the foundation remains a minority (of some sort) power ruling the masses. The hidden universe is too frightening for most people to want to think about (for example, the lack of "rules" in the quantum universe); therefore, they flock to churches, temples, mosques, etc. or look to their congressman for guidance. Life is easier if you accept the status quo... The vast amount of humanity accepts it...

  2. Some of what you say makes sense. However, I disagree with a perspective of a "random" universe which you seem to imply. For underneath the appearance of randomness, including within the "quantum universe" a type of order is found, and rules can be discovered in the midst of appararent lawlessness. While religions may or may not hold all of the answers people are looking for, I would not be so quick to discount what it is they are searching for.

  3. Right. I'm saying they need religion. The vast majority of humanity needs religion. Like I've heard that if a disease wiped out people's memory, that within a few month's time, there would be different religions all over the planet; people need religion to answer what they cannot and to bond with each other. We are social animals and need a "glue" and answers. I enjoy reading your blog...

  4. You are right on about humans being social animals and the bonding power of religion. Is there any part of religion you see as having value beyond being a crutch or social glue? Does the "stuff" of religion have any truth value, or do you find it do be simply an opiate for the masses? I have found that many religions contain pieces of truth of a universal nature, much of which modern science, especially in the West, is obvlious to.