Hope that the flu may be on the decline coincides with a slight decline in the "epidemic" social mood factor that we monitor and is expressed by the CDC in a recent news article. However, as mentioned in a recent MoodCompass website update, "There may be some hope of an end in site for the flu outbreak in the U.S. but a
resurgence in the near future is likely."
Why the pessimism? At the time they expressed this hope of a peak, the next resurgence was visible in the following week's "epidemic" signal (i.e. Jan. 15 - 24). Does this come from a crystal ball or specialized tea leaf reading? Not really. Signals of next week's destabilizing news events come from *this week's* social mood. Eight components of social mood on a daily basis are put into equations and out comes any signal spikes relating to events 7 to 14 days ahead. That may sound strange, and even suggest certain metaphysical assumptions may need revision. However, it is not any more ethereal than getting next week's weather report today.
For more information on the current outlook or The MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on
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Update:
1/18/2013 CDC: Flu deaths increase sharply
Why the pessimism? At the time they expressed this hope of a peak, the next resurgence was visible in the following week's "epidemic" signal (i.e. Jan. 15 - 24). Does this come from a crystal ball or specialized tea leaf reading? Not really. Signals of next week's destabilizing news events come from *this week's* social mood. Eight components of social mood on a daily basis are put into equations and out comes any signal spikes relating to events 7 to 14 days ahead. That may sound strange, and even suggest certain metaphysical assumptions may need revision. However, it is not any more ethereal than getting next week's weather report today.
For more information on the current outlook or The MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.
You can also like The MoodCompass Project on
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Update:
1/18/2013 CDC: Flu deaths increase sharply
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