The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for October 2009. Continued economic concerns, widespread civil unrest, and extreme Middle East tension are the highlights.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Saturday, August 29, 2009
September 09 -- Please Remain Calm
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
The last few months have seen global society move from the brink of despair to a hopeful optimism that things may actually be starting to get better (even while jobs and homes continue to be lost). Wall Street has given new meaning to irrational exuberance, as bullish sentiment indicators reach extremes that exceed the levels of the market peak of October 2007. There are rumors expressed by some commentators that there never even was a recession to begin with.
In March, we cautioned to look for such an extreme in optimism in the months ahead, as it would be the signal that things would be about to get really bad. We are here now. September is a month of paradox, confusion, turbulence, and cross currents. It is a month where hope continues to push forward, as reality persistently slaps it down. There could be large stock market declines as well as huge market rallies as people struggle to find their bearings. There are indications of high economic concerns on a global scale, yet concurrent concerns about inflation are not out of the question. Another crisis regarding the fate of the U.S. Dollar may reappear, while the Dollar builds a solid foundation from which to rally from in the coming months.
In the geopolitical arena, there is increasing violence likely in Nigeria and more civil unrest likely in Iran. Either of these could cause supply concerns in the energy markets. There is a general deterioration in the desire for cooperation among nations, most notably from Russia and the Middle East arena. Global relationships could also deteriorate with Afghanistan, Pakistan and even India. The United States could begin to show an increasingly unfriendly tone this month as well.
In the natural world, it’s the peak of hurricane season, increasing the likelihood of tropical storms and cyclones. There is also a curious indication of concerns with disease outbreaks in Asia which merits watching. Overall, September should be an interesting, if not painful month, as we all try to orient ourselves to a shifting, changing reality. Global leaders should be working overtime to ensure us that all is well, and above all to “please remain calm.”
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http://anewstory.org/markets/Sep09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
- - -
The last few months have seen global society move from the brink of despair to a hopeful optimism that things may actually be starting to get better (even while jobs and homes continue to be lost). Wall Street has given new meaning to irrational exuberance, as bullish sentiment indicators reach extremes that exceed the levels of the market peak of October 2007. There are rumors expressed by some commentators that there never even was a recession to begin with.
In March, we cautioned to look for such an extreme in optimism in the months ahead, as it would be the signal that things would be about to get really bad. We are here now. September is a month of paradox, confusion, turbulence, and cross currents. It is a month where hope continues to push forward, as reality persistently slaps it down. There could be large stock market declines as well as huge market rallies as people struggle to find their bearings. There are indications of high economic concerns on a global scale, yet concurrent concerns about inflation are not out of the question. Another crisis regarding the fate of the U.S. Dollar may reappear, while the Dollar builds a solid foundation from which to rally from in the coming months.
In the geopolitical arena, there is increasing violence likely in Nigeria and more civil unrest likely in Iran. Either of these could cause supply concerns in the energy markets. There is a general deterioration in the desire for cooperation among nations, most notably from Russia and the Middle East arena. Global relationships could also deteriorate with Afghanistan, Pakistan and even India. The United States could begin to show an increasingly unfriendly tone this month as well.
In the natural world, it’s the peak of hurricane season, increasing the likelihood of tropical storms and cyclones. There is also a curious indication of concerns with disease outbreaks in Asia which merits watching. Overall, September should be an interesting, if not painful month, as we all try to orient ourselves to a shifting, changing reality. Global leaders should be working overtime to ensure us that all is well, and above all to “please remain calm.”
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Sep09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Monday, August 17, 2009
Please Remain Calm - Sept 09 Videocast
The Global Mood "Weather Forecast" for September 2009. Global Economic Crisis, Geopolitical Tension Increase, and Disease Concerns in Asia are the highlights.
Friday, July 31, 2009
August 2009 – While We Were Sleeping
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
We spoke last month of a War Dance – some posturing and chest pounding among friends. This month, the sound of drums pounding in the distance can be heard. They’re getting closer. The situation in Iran has been simmering. N. Korea has not yet been “tamed.” There may be domestic distractions—health care, the economy, and other things to pay attention to. There are summer vacations that need to be taken, and parties to go to. However, like it or not, it will be difficult to ignore the sound of the drums, especially near the end of the month.
There is a recent expansion of our research into cycles of mood and perception to a personification of the Earth or Nature itself and its “moods” created from a collage of how human’s perceive non-human nature. In August, there is heightened concern about issues related to global warming or climate change. There is a heightened risk of a moderate earthquake in the area surrounding the Indian Ocean. For whatever reason, strong concerns with disease issues are indicated in Asia at the end of the month, going into September (see http://anewstory.org/earth.htm for more info).
If all this was not enough, while Wall Street has been busy ignoring the high unemployment rates and the growing financial issues that Main Street is increasingly faced with, while banks have been finding new ways to risk money, and everyone and his brother are declaring the recession over, the ingredients for new crises have been stewing. As September approaches, a large stock market decline becomes increasingly near.
But that’s almost a month away. Go back to sleep. It’s probably just a bad dream anyway.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Aug09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
- - -
We spoke last month of a War Dance – some posturing and chest pounding among friends. This month, the sound of drums pounding in the distance can be heard. They’re getting closer. The situation in Iran has been simmering. N. Korea has not yet been “tamed.” There may be domestic distractions—health care, the economy, and other things to pay attention to. There are summer vacations that need to be taken, and parties to go to. However, like it or not, it will be difficult to ignore the sound of the drums, especially near the end of the month.
There is a recent expansion of our research into cycles of mood and perception to a personification of the Earth or Nature itself and its “moods” created from a collage of how human’s perceive non-human nature. In August, there is heightened concern about issues related to global warming or climate change. There is a heightened risk of a moderate earthquake in the area surrounding the Indian Ocean. For whatever reason, strong concerns with disease issues are indicated in Asia at the end of the month, going into September (see http://anewstory.org/earth.htm for more info).
If all this was not enough, while Wall Street has been busy ignoring the high unemployment rates and the growing financial issues that Main Street is increasingly faced with, while banks have been finding new ways to risk money, and everyone and his brother are declaring the recession over, the ingredients for new crises have been stewing. As September approaches, a large stock market decline becomes increasingly near.
But that’s almost a month away. Go back to sleep. It’s probably just a bad dream anyway.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Aug09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Gaia is Agitated: August '09
Our newest release is the "Earth's Mood Cycles," and is Gaia agitated in August! I am so excited about this breakthrough research. Let's hope that we get the message this time! It's now available for public perusal at the link above.
Friday, July 3, 2009
July 2009 - A War Dance
Below is an except from this month's MoodCompass:
- - -
While most of our social mood data comes from the United States, the patterns showing up here also manifest in societies throughout the world, and often in a more extreme manner. Last November, exactly where the social configuration indicated “chaos breaks out,” the Mumbai terrorist attacks occurred. Last month, exactly where a “paradigm shift” was indicated, riots and protests in favor of a new leader were seen in Iran.
In the first half of July, is a social configuration known as the “War Dance.” Metaphorically, think of warriors putting on war paint, pounding their chests, and beating on drums. Expect to see a surge in nationalism and the mentality of “good guys” and “bad guys.” The configuration for the US government is indicative of both high activity and “posturing” with the outside world. However, this occurs after the societal “War Dance” indicating that this action is likely responsive. Also, while “forceful,” the U.S. action should be primarily diplomatic (SE over SW).
With all of this, there are no indications of any new major outbreaks of war at this time. However, watch for the “War Dance” posturing and beginnings of a response before the 14th of the month. While at this time, it is not yet possible to pinpoint where the focal point of this “War Dance” will manifest, the most likely candidates are N. Korea and Iran. This “War Dance” configuration reappears at month’s end. Should the government assure that “all is well” at that time, be wary, as this would be coincident with a “denial” configuration.
There are no indications of a likelihood of actual disruptions in the supply of crude oil. However, when people are worried, even needlessly, they can resort to hoarding. Please refer to our Public Panic Crisis Event presentation for more information on this phenomenon (it is available on our website at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt). The most likely period for a manifestation of panic in the markets or otherwise is July 23 – 28. The likely public response to rising oil and gas prices near the 13th is unclear.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jul09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
- - -
While most of our social mood data comes from the United States, the patterns showing up here also manifest in societies throughout the world, and often in a more extreme manner. Last November, exactly where the social configuration indicated “chaos breaks out,” the Mumbai terrorist attacks occurred. Last month, exactly where a “paradigm shift” was indicated, riots and protests in favor of a new leader were seen in Iran.
In the first half of July, is a social configuration known as the “War Dance.” Metaphorically, think of warriors putting on war paint, pounding their chests, and beating on drums. Expect to see a surge in nationalism and the mentality of “good guys” and “bad guys.” The configuration for the US government is indicative of both high activity and “posturing” with the outside world. However, this occurs after the societal “War Dance” indicating that this action is likely responsive. Also, while “forceful,” the U.S. action should be primarily diplomatic (SE over SW).
With all of this, there are no indications of any new major outbreaks of war at this time. However, watch for the “War Dance” posturing and beginnings of a response before the 14th of the month. While at this time, it is not yet possible to pinpoint where the focal point of this “War Dance” will manifest, the most likely candidates are N. Korea and Iran. This “War Dance” configuration reappears at month’s end. Should the government assure that “all is well” at that time, be wary, as this would be coincident with a “denial” configuration.
There are no indications of a likelihood of actual disruptions in the supply of crude oil. However, when people are worried, even needlessly, they can resort to hoarding. Please refer to our Public Panic Crisis Event presentation for more information on this phenomenon (it is available on our website at: http://anewstory.org/documents/public_panic_crisis.ppt). The most likely period for a manifestation of panic in the markets or otherwise is July 23 – 28. The likely public response to rising oil and gas prices near the 13th is unclear.
- - -
http://anewstory.org/markets/Jul09_MoodCompass.pdf (current issue viewable by research sponsors only; reprinted with permission of A New Story Foundation)
Saturday, June 27, 2009
The Next Six Months -- A Volatile World
I’d like to give you a heads up on the big picture, as A New Story Foundation has just completed a six month global mood and market outlook. Here is a brief summary for July - December 2009.
Look for global tensions to flare this summer and reach a peak in the fall. If the usual players are involved, then look for: 1) The issue regarding the US Dollar and world reserve currency should continue to increase tensions with the US, China, and Russia. 2) Russia is likely to be doing the natural gas hostage play again, increasing tensions with Europe and former Soviet States. 3) Also, watch for a hot spot in the Middle East due to the instability in Iran, and possible nervousness on the part of Israel and/or Iraq. 4) North Korea should continue to be an uncertain annoyance in the background.
The global economic picture should continue to deteriorate, and markets should generally be down to sideways through October. Unemployment should climb well beyond current levels. Look for valiant government efforts to turn things around by the end of the year. Near year's end should be the beginnings of a turnaround in sentiment that should continue into early 2010. Expect a surge of hope (or denial) in November, and an attempt to see “silver linings” within a context of bad data or news in December.
Stay well,
Cari
Look for global tensions to flare this summer and reach a peak in the fall. If the usual players are involved, then look for: 1) The issue regarding the US Dollar and world reserve currency should continue to increase tensions with the US, China, and Russia. 2) Russia is likely to be doing the natural gas hostage play again, increasing tensions with Europe and former Soviet States. 3) Also, watch for a hot spot in the Middle East due to the instability in Iran, and possible nervousness on the part of Israel and/or Iraq. 4) North Korea should continue to be an uncertain annoyance in the background.
The global economic picture should continue to deteriorate, and markets should generally be down to sideways through October. Unemployment should climb well beyond current levels. Look for valiant government efforts to turn things around by the end of the year. Near year's end should be the beginnings of a turnaround in sentiment that should continue into early 2010. Expect a surge of hope (or denial) in November, and an attempt to see “silver linings” within a context of bad data or news in December.
Stay well,
Cari
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